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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2007‒04‒14
sixteen papers chosen by |
| By: | Roberto Frenkel; Martín Rapetti |
| Abstract: | This paper offers a comprehensive look at how Argentina managed a remarkable economic recovery from its collapse in 2001. The authors show how the Argentine government's policy of targeting a stable and competitive real exchange rate was crucial to the country's economic recovery. They also analyze the various sources of aggregate demand and government revenue in different phases of the expansion. In addition to the crucial role of the exchange rate, the authors look at other policies - such as an export tax, capital controls, and the default on much of the country's sovereign debt - which were met with disapproval by many economists and other commentators but played an important role in the recovery. |
| JEL: | E58 E52 E42 F31 F41 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:epo:papers:2007-12&r=his |
| By: | Alain Clément (Triangle : action, discours, pensée politique et économique - [CNRS : UMR5206][IEP LYON] - [Université Lumière - Lyon II] - [Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines]) |
| Abstract: | L'enrichissement monétaire est l'un des objectifs les plus souvent cités dans les œuvres mercantilistes du XVIIe siècle en France et en Angleterre. Alors que le concept de marché n'existe pas encore réellement avant la fin de cette période, il y a débat sur les meilleures façons de s'enrichir. Une réflexion d'importance s'est construite autour des « colonies », de leur rapport à l'enrichissement de la nation et des moyens politiques et économiques que l'on peut mobiliser pour augmenter cette richesse. Trois conceptions se sont dessinées au cours de cette période. La première conception « prédatrice » conçoit les colonies comme une façon de s'enrichir par un commerce inéquitable, sans quasiment aucun investissement lourd sur place. La seconde conception est celle d'un enrichissement dont l'origine tient au développement économique de la colonie et à des échanges plus équilibrés (même s'ils doivent être exclusifs), entre la colonie et la métropole. Enfin la troisième conception voit dans l'entreprise coloniale, une source d'appauvrissement plus que d'enrichissement. Ces trois perspectives constituent le véritable fil rouge dans l'histoire du débat sur les colonies tout au long des XVIIIe, XIXe et XXe siècles. |
| Keywords: | colonisation ; mercantilisme; enrichissement monétaire |
| Date: | 2007–04–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00138309_v1&r=his |
| By: | Matsumoto I., Haruka |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how Taiwan’s “one China†concept evolved during the democratization process that occurred under the leadership of former President Lee Teng-hui. The author argues that there was a crucial evolution of the “one China†concept and that the transformation of the concept resulted from changes in Taiwan’s internal political circumstances. The evolution of the concept creates a real possibility that the “status quo†sought by the ROC in the Taiwan Strait both during and after the Cold War might be destroyed. In addition, any further evolution of the “one China†concept will surely make the “status quo†of Taiwan untenable, in that it would induce Taiwan to seek de jure instead of de facto independence, possibly initiating a conflict between the PRC and the ROC. To prevent such a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, the international community must persuade the ROC not to go beyond the “status quo†and to stay within the framework of de facto independence. At the same time, both the PRC and the ROC should be urged to maintain an open conduit of communication for productive talks on the reunification of China. |
| Keywords: | One China, PRC, ROC, Taiwan, China, Democratization, Lee Teng-hui, Foreign relations, Foreign policy, 1 |
| Date: | 2007–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper91&r=his |
| By: | André de Palma (Université de Cergy-Pontoise et Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées.); Néjia Zaouali (Laboratoire Thema, 33 boulevard du port 95011, Cergy-Pontoise cedex, France.) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we suggest a literature review on valuation of transport externalities during the last ten years. In the first part, we will tackle again with the concept of externalities as well as the approaches which have been used in the economic literature so that to study them. In the second part, we will assess the studies on monetary evaluation of external costs (congestion, atmospheric pollution, noise and accidents) at the international level. Then, we will have a critique on the results that were published by various writers. |
| Keywords: | externalities, valuation, the State-of-the Art |
| JEL: | H23 Q51 R41 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2007-08&r=his |
| By: | Fazal Husain (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad); Abdul Rashid (College of Business Management, Karachi) |
| Abstract: | This study extends the analysis of casuality by Husain and Rashid by taking care of the shift in the variables due to the price hikes in the early 1970s. We investigate the casual relations between real money and real income, between nominal money and nominal income, and between nominal money and prices using using the annual data set from 1959-60 to 2003-04, examining the stochastic properties of the variables used in the analysis and taking care of the expected shifts in the series through dummies. The analysis indicates significant shifts in the variables during the sample period. In this context, the shift of the early 1970s seems to be more important to be incorporated in the analysis. The study finds an active role of money in the Pakistani economy, as it is found to be the leading variable in changing prices without any feed back. In the case of income, the study finds the feed back mechanism of money, which is generally missing in the earlier studies probably because of not taking care of the shift in the macroeconomic variables in Pakistan in the early 1970s. |
| Keywords: | Money; Income; Prices, Price hikes, Casual relations, Pakistan |
| JEL: | E3 E4 N4 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2006:8&r=his |
| By: | Martin D. Abravanel |
| Abstract: | The federal Fair Housing Act defines basic obligations, protections, and enforcement provisions pertaining to housing discrimination in the United States. Although enacted in 1968, it was not until 2001 that we learned the extent of the general public’s awareness of and support for this law and the degree to which persons believing they were victims of housing discrimination sought to take advantage of its enforcement provisions. This report documents what we have learned since that time, based on new information. |
| JEL: | K30 |
| Date: | 2006–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hud:wpaper:39066&r=his |
| By: | Timothy Besley; Torsten Persson |
| Abstract: | Economists generally assume the existence of sufficient institutions to sustain a market economy and tax the citizens. However, this starting point cannot easily be taken for granted in many states, neither in history nor in the developing world of today. This paper develops a framework where "policy choices", regulation of markets and tax rates, are constrained by "economic institutions", which in turn reflect past investments in legal and fiscal state capacity. We study the economic and political determinants of these investments. The analysis shows that common interest public goods, such as fighting external wars, as well as political stability and inclusive political institutions, are conducive to building state capacity. Preliminary empirical evidence based on cross-country data find a number of correlations consistent with the theory. |
| JEL: | D70 E60 H10 K40 O10 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13028&r=his |
| By: | Kern, Holger; Hainmueller, Jens |
| Abstract: | A common claim in the democratization literature is that foreign free media undermine authoritarian rule. No reliable micro-level evidence on this topic exists, however, since independent survey research is rarely possible in authoritarian regimes and self-selection into media consumption complicates causal inferences. In this case study of the impact of West German television on political attitudes in communist East Germany, we address these problems by making use of previously secret survey data and a natural experiment. While most East Germans were able to tune in to West German broadcasts, some of them were cut off from West German television due to East Germany's topography. We exploit this plausibly exogenous variation to estimate the impact of West German television on East Germans' political attitudes using instrumental variable estimators. Contrary to conventional wisdom, East Germans who watched West German television were more satisfied with life in East Germany and the communist regime. To explain this surprising finding, we demonstrate that West German television's role in transmitting political information not available in the state-controlled communist media was insignificant and that television primarily served as a means of entertainment for East Germans. Archival material on the reaction of the East German regime to the availability of West German television corroborates our argument. |
| Keywords: | instrumental variables; causal inference; local average response function; media effects; East Germany; democratization |
| JEL: | F50 D83 O17 |
| Date: | 2007–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:2702&r=his |
| By: | Jean-Claude Barbier (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - [CNRS : UMR8174] - [Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I]) |
| Abstract: | Le présent texte est consacré à la gestion du service public de l'emploi en France. Une première partie présente un bilan de la mise en oeuvre des trois premiers "contrats de progrès" signés entre l'Etat et l'ANPE (1990-2003). Au cours de la période considérée, la mise en oeuvre des contrats de progrès de l'ANPE a surtout été formelle : chaque fois qu'une réorientation stratégique a été décidée par le gouvernement, ce dernier a "oublié" la procédure contractuelle. La seconde partie présente une étude de cas qui est mise en perspective avec la situation britanique. Le cas, lui aussi tiré de la gestion du service public de l'emploi au début des années 1990, montre que dans la situation institutionnelle française où la place de l'évaluation des politiques publiques est très incertaine - du moins au niveau de l'Etat central -, il est relativement facile de manipuler l'information dans le cadre de stratégies de communication politique liées à telle ou telle étape de la lutte électorale entre les partis politiques (les deux textes sont des versions adaptées ou traduites de publications faites en anglais). |
| Keywords: | France, service public de l'emploi, politique de l'emploi, évaluation des politiques publiques, communication politique. |
| Date: | 2007–04–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00140497_v1&r=his |
| By: | Nicolas Canry (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - [CNRS : UMR8174] - [Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I]); Arnaud Lechevalier (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - [CNRS : UMR8174] - [Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I]) |
| Abstract: | This paper refers to a few recent studies, which have focused on methodological issues related to the estimation of the wage share variations, to compare the evolutions in France and former West Germany since 1970. It is shown that the usual method overestimates the long run drop of wage share in both countries but that the magnitude and thus the contribution of different biases are quite different in France and Germany. However no bias can explain the sharp drop of wage share in Germany since 2001, which has to be analysed within the framework of the euro area. |
| Keywords: | Income distribution, Wage share, International comparison |
| Date: | 2007–04–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00140529_v1&r=his |
| By: | Jérôme Blanc (LEFI - Laboratoire d'économie de la firme et des institutions - [Université Lumière - Lyon II]) |
| Abstract: | Ce texte s'interroge sur les origines du projet de currency board en Lituanie, les conditions dans lesquelles ce projet a été façonné et les conditions de son établissement effectif. Il met en lumière la convergence sur la Lituanie d'une dynamique internationale de propositions de tels dispositifs pour des pays de l'ancien bloc soviétique et le développement de relais locaux. Il examine ensuite les débats et rapports qui ont suivi l'annonce officielle, par le Premier ministre, du projet de caisse d'émission en octobre 1993. Enfin il présente le dispositif tel que façonné par la loi sur la crédibilité du litas votée le 17 mars 1994 et les problèmes immédiats issus de sa conception. |
| Keywords: | Currency board;Monnaie;régime de change;institutions;Lituanie |
| Date: | 2007–04–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00140508_v1&r=his |
| By: | Alain Clément (Triangle : action, discours, pensée politique et économique - [CNRS : UMR5206][IEP LYON] - [Université Lumière - Lyon II] - [Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines]) |
| Abstract: | Le débat qui a eu lieu en Angleterre dans la première moitié du XIXe siècle à propos des corn laws reprend un thème fort ancien : celui de l'approvisionnement alimentaire de la nation. Le XIXe siècle a introduit un débat national entre les économistes puis au parlement et dans les milieux industriels, et au sein de l'opinion publique, sur les avantages et les inconvénients respectifs du libre-échange et du protectionnisme agricole. Ce débat illustre également deux conceptions du marché : la première que l'on doit aux ricardiens est celle d'un marché réducteur de déséquilibres économiques et sociaux (conception mécanique) et la deuxième illustrée par Malthus est celle d'un marché contaminateur de déséquilibres économiques, politiques et sociaux. L'issue de ce débat a marqué enfin une étape décisive dans l'abandon de la thèse de l'Etat nourricier |
| Keywords: | corn laws ; protectionnisme ; libre-échange ; dépendance alimentaire |
| Date: | 2007–04–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00138310_v1&r=his |
| By: | Inci, Eren |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on the pre-establishment period of start-ups in industrial districts. The industrial architecture is what I call a "rationed agglomeration" in which some entrepreneurs gather around an established firm while other entrepreneurs in the same business stand alone. In a rationed agglomeration, I analyze the e¤ects of relations between established firms, network entrepreneurs, and local financiers on the market prices of loans. I show that such relations improve the match of capital to ideas in the network even though the overall distribution of capital to ideas remains unchanged. This suggests that success breeds success in the networks of established firms. The existence of networks overturns the claim that there are no motives to engage in information gathering in a simple market regime with information asymmetries. In particular, I show that there are market incentives for established firms to decrease the information gap between network entrepreneurs and local financiers. |
| Keywords: | agglomeration, entrepreneur, dispersion, innovation, local financiers, networks, regional economies, project financing, signaling, start-up |
| JEL: | D82 G20 L26 R12 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:5465&r=his |
| By: | Ken Coutts; Andrew Glyn; Bob Rowthorn |
| Abstract: | The decline in the importance of tradeable goods production in providing employment has continued in the past decade; distribution, public services and business and financial services all provide more jobs than tradeable goods. Manufacturing output has stagnated under New Labour despite rapid growth of expenditure on manufactures. The result has been a sharp deterioration in the trade balance in manufactures. However the current account has only been in modest deficit shielded by additional net exports from finance and business services, higher earnings on overseas investments and an improvement in the terms of trade. The North of the country lost more industrial jobs than the South, but since 2000 the North has seen a greater expansion of jobs in public services and also finance and business services. Combined with a slower growth of population this has implied that the employment rate has actually risen in the North as compared to the South - a striking reversal of a long running trend. The government has taken a relaxed attitude to the decline in manufacturing over the past decade and has played down the importance of deliberate policies to bring jobs to the most affected regions. Paradoxically the major reason for the recent narrowing of the regional employment gap in recent years has been the very rapid expansion of jobs linked directly to public spending. |
| Keywords: | Deindustrialisation, North-South Divide, Public Sector Jobs, Balance of Payments |
| JEL: | O14 O19 O52 R11 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:312&r=his |
| By: | Alain Clément (Triangle : action, discours, pensée politique et économique - [CNRS : UMR5206][IEP LYON] - [Université Lumière - Lyon II] - [Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines]) |
| Abstract: | L'objet de ce texte est de retracer deux formes de représentation du marché -que le débat sur les corn laws a parfaitement bien illustré (première moitié du XIXème siècle). Dans une première partie, nous présenterons le point de vue des économistes malthusiens avec une argumentation qui tourne autour de trois points : tout d'abord, le marché ouvert aux courants d'échanges internationaux est contaminateur de déséquilibres car il répand et amplifie les déséquilibres initiaux (§ 1). Ce marché induit un risque de dépendance alimentaire et politique majeur pour les nations acheteuses de vivres, d'où également un risque de déséquilibre (§ 2). Ce marché est enfin un facteur de rupture des équilibres sectoriels et sociaux (§ 3). Dans une deuxième partie nous aborderons le point de vue des économistes ricardiens, farouchement partisans de l'abrogation des corn laws et dont le discours se structure autour de trois axes. Un marché libre à la concurrence international est un réducteur de déséquilibre économique (§ 1), est ensuite un vecteur d'harmonisation et de justice sociale (§ 2) et est un puissant instrument d'équilibre au service de la paix (§ 3). Dans une partie conclusive, nous évaluerons l'impact de ce débat sur l'opinion et sur la législation en vigueur. |
| Keywords: | marché économique ; représentations ; XIXe siècle ; histoire de la pensée économique |
| Date: | 2007–04–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00138350_v1&r=his |
| By: | Sebastian Edwards |
| Abstract: | In this paper I use historical data to analyze the relationship between crises and growth in Latin America. I calculate by how much the region's GDP per capita has been reduced as a consequence of the recurrence of external crises. I also analyze the determinants of major balance of payments crises. The main conclusion is that it is unlikely that Latin America will, on average, experience a major improvement in long run growth in the future. It is possible that some countries will make progress in catching up with the advanced nations. This, however, will not be the norm; most Latin American countries are likely to fall further behind in relation to the Asian countries and other emerging nations. Not everything, however, is grim. My analysis also suggests that fewer Latin America countries will be subject to the type of catastrophic crises that affected the region in the past. Latin America's future will be one of "No crises and modest growth." |
| JEL: | F30 F32 N26 O4 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13019&r=his |