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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2006‒11‒25
24 papers chosen by |
| By: | Juan Sole |
| Abstract: | This paper mines the experience of capital markets during the 19th century to propose an alternative way of interpreting international default episodes. The standard view is that defaulting on sovereign debt entails exclusion from capital markets. Yet we have observed multiple instances of sovereign debt default in which the reaction of lenders was not the one predicted by the punishment story: in some cases, lending ceased for long periods, but in others it was not interrupted. This paper claims that the reaction of lenders after default stems from the additional knowledge about the borrower that lenders acquire during these episodes. The lending relationship is modeled in a costly state-verification environment in which governments have private information about their investment projects (good or bad). It is shown that, in the event of default, it is worthwhile for lenders to find out more about the type of project, and then interrupt lending only if the project is believed to be a bad one. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign debt , default , costly state verification , |
| Date: | 2006–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/176&r=his |
| By: | Yasuo Takatsuki (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University) |
| Abstract: | The first modern futures market is said to date back to the Chicago Board of Trade established in 1848. However, there existed an older precedent; the Dojima Rice Market established in 1730 in Osaka. The past literature on Dojima has made it clear that Dojima had well-established trading systems. However, a fundamental question remains unanswered: was the first well-established futures market effcient or not? This paper applies the classic measure of market effciency; "weak form effciency" to Dojima Rice Market, and shows that there existed this very type of effciency. Finding an example of this type of effciency in Dojima should come as a pleasant surprise to us, as the Dojima was developed at a time when no modern judicial system and other modern institutions were formed. |
| Keywords: | Tokugawa Period Japan, Futures Market, Unbiasedness Hypothesis, Informational Effciency |
| JEL: | G14 L11 N25 |
| Date: | 2006–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osk:wpaper:0628&r=his |
| By: | André Faria; Martín Minnoni; Aleksandar Zaklan; Paolo Mauro |
| Abstract: | We trace the history of where and why investors from the most advanced countries directed funds, ultimately helping finance economic development in emerging market countries. To do this, we analyze the determinants of international investors' willingness to hold the external liabilities issued by emerging market countries, through cross-country regressions for both prices (bond spreads) and quantities (bond market capitalization or stocks of external liabilities) estimated at various points during two waves of financial globalization (1870-1913 and the present time). The data are drawn from primary sources for the historical period, and the much-expanded, new vintage of the Lane and Milesi-Ferretti (2006) data set for the modern period. The results suggest that, throughout the past one and a half centuries, a combination of human capital (including informal human capital) and institutional quality has been a key determinant of emerging market countries' ability to attract international investors. |
| Keywords: | External liabilities , emerging markets , capital flows , international financial integration , |
| Date: | 2006–09–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/205&r=his |
| By: | Inguanotto, Irina; Piva, Francesca |
| Abstract: | This paper deals with the history of the Italian fashion. The figure of Elda Cecchele, a textile artisan (hand weaver) who worked in the second half of the last century with famous Italian fashion designers (Salvatore Ferragamo, Jole Veneziani, Roberta di Camerino, Franca Polacco) is analysed through her work and documents. Elda Cecchele's activity was creative and imaginative. She wove many different materials with incredible results. In addition she acted on behalf of Roberta di Camerino as an intermediary in creating a network of subcontractors working for the fashion firm exploiting the confidence and the reputation she had gained in the territory around her laboratory. In the sixties the Veneto countryside was still very poor and women were unemployed and obliged to emigrate so that her activity is remembered as a significant relief. |
| Keywords: | fashion industry; Italy; industrial network; reputation |
| JEL: | L67 N84 |
| Date: | 2006–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:875&r=his |
| By: | Batiz-Lazo, Bernardo; Maixe-Altes, J. Carles |
| Abstract: | In this article we explore organisational changes associated with the automation of financial intermediaries in Spain and the UK. This international comparison looks at the evolution of the same organisational form in two distinct competitive environments. Changes in regulation and technological developments (particularly applications of information technology) are said to be responsible for enhancing competitiveness of retail finance. Archival research on the evolution of savings banks helps to ascertain how, prior to competitive changes taking place, participants in bank markets had to develop capabilities to compete. |
| Keywords: | comparative financial markets; United Kingdom; Spain; market structure; technological change; regulatory change; savings banks; banks. |
| JEL: | N20 |
| Date: | 2006–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:804&r=his |
| By: | M.A. Irigoin (College of New Jersey); R. Grafe (Northwestern University (formerly of Nuffield College, Oxford)) |
| Abstract: | Social scientists use the history of Spain and her empire as a standard against which they have sought to establish the relatively superior efficiency of Anglo-Saxon institutions. This historical ‘experiment’ underpins the core argument of new-institutional economic history. This paper argues that such comparisons have departed from a misleading characterisation of Spanish rule in the metropolis and overseas. For some time historians of Spain and Colonial Spanish America have emphasized that the Spanish system of governance was highly negotiated rather than absolutist. This is confirmed in the workings of the peninsular and colonial fiscal systems. This paper shows that revenues were not extracted to Madrid but instead widely re-distributed across regions. Contrarily to received wisdom there was a great degree of local autonomy in managing and allocating these intra-regional transfers of revenues. The crown barely controlled the system; yet, it acted as the ultimate arbiter of a very flexible arrangement that effected ultimately the distribution of the fiscal burden across colonial regions and economic sectors. This set-up explains the lack of serious challenges from within during 300 years of imperial rule. Napoleon’s invasion of Spain in 1808 and the abduction of the Spanish king caused a major shock to this system of redistribution. The implosion of Spanish rule led to conflict over revenues and resources among constituent parts of the empire. The search for a legitimate replacement ruler that ensued consumed the following century in postcolonial Latin America. A comparable pattern of constitutional failure, political instability – and poor economic performance – was replicated in Spain throughout the nineteenth century. |
| Date: | 2006–11–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nuf:esohwp:_065&r=his |
| By: | Carol E. Heim |
| Abstract: | <p>Phoenix and neighboring municipalities, like many in the South and West, pursued a growth strategy based on annexation in the decades after World War II. This paper explores the link between annexation and competition for tax revenues. After discussing arguments for annexation, it traces the history of annexation in the Phoenix metropolitan area. A long-running series of "border wars" entailed litigation, pre-emptive annexations, and considerable intergovernmental conflict. The paper argues that tax revenues have been a key motivation for annexation, particularly since the 1970s. It then considers several related policy issues and argues that while opportunities for annexation are becoming more limited, competition for tax revenues (particularly sales tax revenues) continues to be fierce and to create dilemmas for municipalities in the region</p><p>(Paper revised July 2006.)</p> |
| Keywords: | annexation, municipal revenues, sales tax, Phoenix, urban growth, intergovernmental relations |
| JEL: | H71 H77 N92 R51 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uma:periwp:wp112_revised&r=his |
| By: | Tetsuji Okazaki (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how the Bank of Japan (BOJ) dealt with the trade-off between stability of the financial system and the moral hazard of banks in pre-war Japan. The BOJ concentrated Lender of Last Resort (LLR) loans with those banks that had an established transaction relationship with the BOJ. At the same time, the BOJ carefully selected its transaction counterparts, and did not hesitate to end the relationship if the performance of a counterpart declined. Further, the BOJ was selective in providing LLR loans. Through this policy, the BOJ could avoid the moral hazard that the LLR policy might otherwise have incurred. |
| Date: | 2006–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2006cf447&r=his |
| By: | Paola Lanaro (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Ca’ Foscari) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to provide a general overview on the recent works in the economic history of Venice. Instead of a “pessimistic” interpretation, focused on the lost in the maritime position and on the rigidity of the corporative institution, this paper breaks down on the fundamental changes in the economic framework of the whole Republic of Venice, particularly in its mainland: investment in the agrarian sector, development of new manufactures, foreign market shift from Western to Eastern Europe. Published in the volume: At the Centre of the Old World: Trade and Manufacturing in Venice and the Venetian Mainland (1400-1800), edited by P. Lanaro, Toronto, Centre for Reformation and Renaissance Studies, 2006. |
| Keywords: | Economic history, Venice. |
| JEL: | N63 N93 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:50_06&r=his |
| By: | Germa Bel (Universitat de Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | The Great Depression spurred State ownership in Western capitalist countries. Germany was no exception; the last governments of the Weimar Republic took over firms in diverse sectors. Later, the Nazi regime transferred public ownership and public services to the private sector. In doing so, they went against the mainstream trends in the Western capitalist countries, none of which systematically reprivatized firms during the 1930s. Privatization in Nazi Germany was also unique in transferring to private hands the delivery f public services previously provided by government. The firms and the services transferred to private ownership belonged to diverse sectors. Privatization was part of an intentional policy with multiple objectives and was not ideologically driven. As in many recent privatizations, particularly within the European Union, strong financial restrictions were a central motivation. In addition, privatization was used as a political tool to enhance support for the government and for the Nazi Party. |
| Keywords: | germany, nazi economy, privatization, public enterprise |
| JEL: | G38 L32 L33 N44 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bar:bedcje:2006162&r=his |
| By: | Jane Humphries (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | Accounts of the British fertility decline have turned on the rise of the male breadwinner family, which by placing the responsibility for supporting women and children on men converted them to a preference for smaller families. This paper uses working-class autobiography of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries to develop understanding of sources of income and patterns of dependency and to illuminate the motives towards smaller families. Even before 1800 fathers’ duties were to work hard to support their families, but male responsibilities did not extend to stretching male wages to cover the variable demands of smaller or larger families. Mothers often sacrificed their own diets and wellbeing to stretch resources. Yet for them children were supports as well as burdens. Sons could earn more than their mothers and surrendered their earnings willingly. Through the family, resources were transferred from older working children to younger dependent siblings. Children’s diets and schooling were eroded by the appearance of new babies and their entry into early work prompted by the burden of dependency. Their experiences as family members and child workers were recycled with a lag into recognition of the costs of larger families and slowly and imperfectly into agreement about the need for fertility control. |
| Date: | 2006–11–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nuf:esohwp:_064&r=his |
| By: | Martin D. Cerisola; Anoop Singh |
| Abstract: | This paper looks at the historical lessons that might serve to entrech Latin America's newly resurgent growth phase. It briefly reviews the post-World War II experiences in Latin America and Asia, focusing on the conditions that favored capital accumulation and productivity growth in the faster growing economies. Among these, the paper highlights the importance of stable macroeconomic policies, especially fiscal policy. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomic Policy; Policy Design and Consistency; Economic Growth and Open Economies , |
| Date: | 2006–11–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/252&r=his |
| By: | Komlos, John; Flandreau, Marc |
| Abstract: | We explore the efficiency of the forward Reichsmark market in Vienna between 1876 and 1914. We estimate ARIMA models of the spot exchange rate in order to forecast the one-month-ahead spot rate. In turn we compare these forecasts to the contemporaneous forward rate, i.e., the market's forecast of the future spot rate. We find that shortly after the introduction of a shadow gold standard in the mid-1890s the forward rate became a considerably better predictor of the future spot rate than during the prior flexible exchange rate regime. Between 1907 and 1914 forecast errors were between a half and one-fourth of their pre-1896 level. This implies that the Austro-Hungarian Bank's policy of defending the gold value of the currency was successful in improving the efficiency of the foreign exchange market. |
| Keywords: | exchange rate; gold standard; ARIMA; efficiency |
| JEL: | F31 N23 |
| Date: | 2006–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lmu:muenec:1244&r=his |
| By: | Komlos, John; Lauderdale, Benjamin E. |
| Abstract: | Objective: We use the complete set of NHES and NHANES data collected between 1959 and 2004 in order to construct trends for the physical stature of the non-Hispanic white and black US adult population and compare them to those of Western- and Northern-Europeans. Method: Regression analysis is used to estimate the trend in US heights stratified by gender and ethnicity holding income and educational attainment constant. Results: US heights have stabilized at mid-century and a perio0d of stagnation set in with the birth cohorts 1955-74, concurrent with continual rapid increases in heights in Western and Northern Europe. The American population had been the tallest in the world for two centuries until World War II, but by the end of the 20th century fell behind many of their European counterparts. Only since the most recent birth cohorts 1975-83 is some gain apparent among whites but not among blacks. The relationship between height and income and between height and educational attainment has not changed appreciably over time for either men or women. Conclusion: We conjecture that the American health-care system, as well as the relatively weak welfare safety net might be the reason why human growth in the United States has not performed as well in relative terms as one would expect on the basis of income. The comparative pattern bears some similarly to that of life expectancy insofar as the US is also lagging behind in that respect. |
| Keywords: | biological standard of living; health; height; NHANES |
| JEL: | N32 |
| Date: | 2006–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lmu:muenec:1241&r=his |
| By: | Jess Benhabib; Mark M. Spiegel |
| Abstract: | In a recent paper, Atkeson and Kehoe (2004) demonstrated the lack of a robust empirical relationship between inflation and growth for a cross-section of countries with 19th and 20th century data, concluding that the historical evidence only provides weak support for the contention that deflation episodes are harmful to economic growth. In this paper, we revisit this relationship by allowing for inflation and growth to have a nonlinear specification dependent on inflation levels. In particular, we allow for the possibility that high inflation is negatively correlated with growth, while a positive relationship exists over the range of negative-to-moderate inflation. Our results confirm a positive relationship between inflation and growth at moderate inflation levels, and support the contention that the relationship between inflation and growth is non-linear over the entire sample range. |
| Keywords: | Inflation (Finance) |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2006-32&r=his |
| By: | Satyajit Chatterjee; Dean Corbae |
| Abstract: | The potential benefit of policies that eliminate a small likelihood of economic crises is calculated. An economic crisis is defined as an increase in unemployment of the magnitude observed during the Great Depression. For the U.S., the maximum-likelihood estimate of entering a depression is found to be about once every 83 years. The welfare gain from setting this small probability to zero can range between 1 and 7 percent of annual consumption in perpetuity. For most estimates, more than half of these large gains result from a reduction in individual consumption volatility. ; This paper supersedes Working Paper 03-20. |
| Keywords: | Depressions ; Unemployment |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:06-18&r=his |
| By: | Markus Mobius; Raphael Schoenle |
| Abstract: | The division of labor first increased during industrialization and then decreased again after 1970 as job roles have expanded. We explain these trends in the organization of work through a simple model where (a) machines require standardization to exploit economies of scale and (b) more customized products are subject to trends and fashions which make production tasks less predictable and a strict division of labor impractical. At the onset of industrialization, the market supports only a small number of generic varieties which can be mass-produced under a strict division of labor. Thanks to productivity growth, niche markets gradually expand, producers eventually move into customized production and the division of labor decreases again. The model predicts capital-skill substitutability during industrialization and capital skill complementarity in the maturing industrial economy. Moreover, conventional calculations of the factor content of trade underestimate the impact of globalization because they do not take into account changes in product market competition induced by trade. We test our model by exploiting the time-lags in the introduction of bar-coding in three-digit SIC manufacturing industries in the US. We find that both increases in investments in computers and bar-coding have led to skill-upgrading. However, consistent with our model bar-coding has affected mainly the center of the skill distribution by shifting demand away from the high-school educated to the less-than-college educated. |
| JEL: | J24 L23 O31 O33 |
| Date: | 2006–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12694&r=his |
| By: | Fred Furlong; Simon Kwan |
| Abstract: | In 1986, a task force of banking academics organized and sponsored by the American Bankers Association convened to examine the banking industry and the efficacy of its regulatory system. The group was charged with reviewing the problems of ensuring the safety and soundness of the banking system and evaluating a number of policy options to improve the efficiency, performance, and safety of the system by changing the structure of the deposit insurance system and the bank regulatory and supervisory process. The results of the work of the task force were published by the MIT Press as the book, Perspectives on Safe and Sound Banking (Benston et al., 1986, the Report), which includes a set of principal options and recommendations. The purpose of this article is to assess the extent to which changes in public policy regarding depository institutions have been aligned with the recommendations of the Report. We find that, over the past 20 years, several legislative initiatives and changes in regulations and the bank supervisory process have been in keeping with the specific recommendations of the Report or with the analytic framework underlying the recommendations. At the same time, other recommendations in the Report have not been taken up and some proposals rejected in the Report have been put in place by legislative and regulatory initiatives. Overall, public policy and private sector initiatives appear to have contributed to safer and sounder banking and thrift sectors over the past 20 years. Consistent with what we see as the main theme of the Report, a likely contributing factor is the more appropriate alignment of incentive for risk-taking among larger depository institutions. Developments affecting risk-taking by depository institutions likely include higher capitalizations, greater risk exposure of private sector stakeholders more generally, improvements in risk management, and supervision and regulation that is focused on overall risk. |
| Keywords: | Banks and banking ; Bank supervision |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2006-27&r=his |
| By: | Paolo Crestanello (Poster e Crei, Vicenza); Giuseppe Tattara (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Ca’ Foscari) |
| Abstract: | The aim of our paper is to analyse the governance of value chains operating in the traditional sectors of clothing and footwear, focusing particularly on production de-localization from the Italian region of Veneto to the nearby country of Rumania After describing and ‘quantifying’ the internationalization process between Veneto and Rumania we turn to discuss the possible consequences of this process, both for the region of origin and the recipient area. We highlight, through the concepts of linkages and competences how the production internationalization process may determine a progressive weakening of the network of linkages that characterize the home region, and discuss the main obstacles to a successful transfer of know-how and technologies to the host system. From this discussion emerges the vision of some policy measures to amplify possible positive effects and counter negative consequences of the fragmentation of production, both in the home and in the host country. |
| Keywords: | Internationalisation, Industrial districts, Delocalisation, Organization of Production |
| JEL: | F23 L22 L23 L67 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:48_06&r=his |
| By: | Isabel Cortes; Manuel Artis (Universitat de Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | Tourism is one of the most important sectors in the global economy and is considered an efficient tool with which to promote economic growth. The case of Spain's economy is well known in this respect; in fact, widespread consensus exists on the part played by tourism in enhancing the industrialisation process in Spain and the part played by foreign currency receipts from tourism in financing the imports of capital goods, which made the expansion of manufacturing possible. This paper aims to assess the real role of foreign currency receipts from tourism in Spain 's economy from 1960 to the present. The results of Spain 's experience may well help to guide policy decisions in developing countries in similar circumstances. |
| Keywords: | economic development, industrialisation, international tourism, spanish experience |
| JEL: | C22 L83 N74 O1 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bar:bedcje:2006158&r=his |
| By: | Finnie, Ross |
| Abstract: | Dans le présent document, l'auteur tire parti des propriétés uniques de la Banque de données administratives longitudinales construite à partir des dossiers fiscaux pour mesurer les départs des Canadiens vers d'autres pays et examiner leurs profils de retour au cours de la période allant de 1982 à 2003. Dans l'ensemble, environ 0,1 % (c.-à-d. un dixième de 1 %) de la population adulte quitte le pays une année donnée. Les taux de départ ont généralement suivi l'évolution de l'économie canadienne, mais les tendances ont manifestement été attribuables également à d'autres facteurs, diminuant au cours des années 1980 lorsque l'économie était vigoureuse, amorçant une remontée vers la fin de la décennie avant que l'économie ne ralentisse en 1989, connaissant une hausse pendant la première partie des années 1990 lorsque l'économie était engluée dans une profonde récession, puis continuant d'augmenter jusqu'à la fin de 1997, année où une forte reprise était en cours, pour baisser ensuite fortement depuis 2000, endiguant ce que de nombreuses personnes croyaient être une inexorable tendance à la hausse, alors que les facteurs économiques étaient relativement stables. Les taux de départ diminuent avec l'âge (sauf dans le groupe le plus jeune), sont moins élevés pour les couples sans enfants que pour les autres types de familles, sont élevés chez les habitants de la Colombie-Britannique, assez faibles chez les Québécois francophones et très élevés chez les anglophones dans cette province, sont légèrement plus faibles pour les personnes touchant des prestations d'assurance-emploi (auparavant assurance-c |
| Keywords: | Population et démographie, Travail, Migration, Mobilité de la population active, Recherche d'emploi |
| Date: | 2006–11–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp3f:2006288f&r=his |
| By: | David Tschirley (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); Colin Poulton; Duncan Boughton |
| Abstract: | With cotton sector reform in much of SSA a decade old, it is now possible to review the empirical record and begin drawing lessons from experience. This paper assesses the record of five countries in southern and eastern Africa: Tanzania, Uganda, Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Mozambique. In four of these countries, cotton is the first- or second most important smallholder cash crop; only in Uganda does it substantially lag other cash crops. The focus on the course of reform in each – initial conditions, key elements of the reform, and institutional response to it – and attempt to draw lessons for policy makers, donors, and researchers. the paper begins by outlining the challenges faced by cotton production and marketing systems. Next a review the range of pre-reform institutional responses to these challenges, before discussing the reform process in each country and reviewing the evolving institutional response to it. Finally, assess the performance that each country has achieved and attempt to relate this to its initial conditions and subsequent institutional responses, and closing by outlining lessons for strategies to improve cotton systems in SSA. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, cotton sector reform, Tanzania, Uganda, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Mozambique |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:zm-fsrp-wp-018&r=his |
| By: | Michael D. Bordo; Joseph G. Haubrich |
| Abstract: | Using the yield curve helps forecast real growth over the period 1875 to 1997. Using both the level and slope of the curve improves forecasts more than using either variable alone. Forecast performance changes over time and depends somewhat on whether recursive or rolling out of sample regressions are used. |
| Keywords: | Interest rates ; Gross national product |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwp:0611&r=his |
| By: | Mohammad Niaz Asadullah (SKOPE, Department of Economics, University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | This paper documents the regional divide in educational facilities between East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) and West Pakistan between 1947 and 1971. During this period, the total number of primary schools in East Pakistan declined, leading to overcrowding of existing schools and classrooms. On the other hand, despite being endowed with fewer schools, West Pakistan surpassed East Pakistan in the total number of primary schools, and in teacher–student ratios. This evident educational disparity, we argue, cannot be attributed to regional differences in school age population, school types, the quality and unit cost of schooling. Rather, this problem is examined in terms of the hypothesis of ‘discrimination’ as an alternate explanation. |
| JEL: | I20 N35 N95 |
| Date: | 2006–11–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nuf:esohwp:_063&r=his |