nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2004‒12‒12
24 papers chosen by
Bernardo Batiz-Lazo
London South Bank University

  2. The Social Shaping of the early Dutch Management Schools - Professions and the power of Abstraction By Baalen, P.J. van; Karsten, L.
  4. Unification of the private law in Germany in the nineteenth century : an economic perspective By Kanning,A.
  5. Were Spanish migrants attracted by industrial agglomerations? An analysis for the interwar years in the light of the new economic geography. By Pons,J.; Silvestre,J.; Tirado,D.; Paluzie,E.
  6. Feeding the British: Convergence and Market Efficiency in 19th Century Grain Trade By Mette Ejrnæs; Karl Gunnar Persson; Søren Rich
  7. Retrospective on the 1970s Productivity Slowdown By William Nordhaus
  8. The Concept of Systematic Corruption in American Political and Economic History By John Joseph Wallis
  9. The Role of Preference Shocks and Capital Utilization in the Great Depression By Mark Weder
  10. Banking Crisis in Japan By Kashyap Vattipalli
  11. Hypotheses in Marketing Science: Literature Review and Publication Audit By JS Armstrong; Roderick J. Brodie; Andrew G. Parsons
  12. Slavery, Institutional Development, and Long-Run Growth in Africa, 1400--2000 By Nathan Nunn
  13. The Basel Process and Financial Stability By David S. Bieri
  16. The Political Economy of Race and the Adoption of Fair Employment Laws, 1940-1964 By William J. Collins
  17. The Labor Market Impact of State-Level Anti-Discrimination Laws, 1940-1960 By William J. Collins
  18. The Economic Aftermath of the 1960s Riots in American Cities: Evidence from Property Values By William J. Collins; Robert A. Margo
  19. The Wage Gains of African-American Women in the 1940's By Martha J. Bailey; William J. Collins
  20. No-arbitrage equilibria with differential information : an enlarged existence theorem By Lionel de Boisdeffre
  21. FAQs about oil and the world economy By Douwe Kingma; Wim Suyker
  23. Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960-1984 By JS Armstrong
  24. Discovery and Communication of Important Marketing Findings: Evidence and Proposals By JS Armstrong

  1. By: Mauro Boianovsky; Hans-Michael Trautwein
    Abstract: The paper discusses the League of Nations's project to produce consensus in the interpretation of aggregate economic fluctuations in the 1930s. G. Haberler started working in 1934 at the League of Nations headquarters in Geneva on a broad enquiry that should lead to a synthesis of the several conflicting explanations of the causes of the business cycles, which culminated with the publication of his classic book in 1937. The paper makes use of archival material hitherto unexplored - such as correspondence and verbatim records of conferences - to show how the discussions with economists at the time were incorporated into Haberler's final report, and to interpret in what extent the attempt to reach a consensus was successful.
    JEL: B22
    Date: 2004
  2. By: Baalen, P.J. van; Karsten, L. (Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), Erasmus University Rotterdam)
    Abstract: In this paper we provide an alternative explanation for the rise of modern management schools at the turn of the 20th century. We argue that these schools were not just responses of the higher education system to the demand of industrializing companies for a new class of professional managers, like Chandler suggests. Based on our historical research we found that the struggle for emancipation of the new professions (engineers and accountants) was the main driver for the founding of these schools. Management schools were viewed as the main vehicles to raise the social status of these new professions. To legitimize their position in the higher education system, abstraction appeared to be the dominant strategy of the professions. By abstraction they could distinguish themselves from the lay public and other professional groups in the domain of management. At the moment the new professions had a foot in the higher education system the engineers and the accountants contested for the new management domain. Abstraction appeared also the successful strategy of the accountants to distinguish themselves from the engineers and to establish a sound base for the development of the Dutch variant of business economics.
    Keywords: Business schools;management education;professions;history of business schools;higher education;
    Date: 2004–12–03
  3. By: Ana Maria Bianchi
    Abstract: This paper discusses Albert Hirschman's writings that resulted from his professional experience in Colombia, Brazil, Chile and other Latin American countries during the 1950s and 1960s. The focus is on the trilogy written by Hirschman in the field of development economics, which comprises: The Strategy of Economic Development (1958), Journeys Toward Progress (1963) and Development Projects Observed (1967). Some methodological aspects of those writings, which tend to be recurrent throughout the author's whole intelectual career, are emphasized.
    JEL: B31 B41
    Date: 2004
  4. By: Kanning,A. (TILEC (Tilburg Law and Economics Center))
    Date: 2004
  5. By: Pons,J.; Silvestre,J.; Tirado,D.; Paluzie,E. (Universitat de Barcelona)
    Abstract: In this paper we examine whether access to markets had a significant influence on migration choices of Spanish internal migrants in the inter-war years. We perform a structural contrast of a New Economic Geography model that focus on the forward linkage that links workers location choice with the geography of industrial production, one of the centripetal forces that drive agglomeration in the NEG models. The results highlight the presence of this forward linkage in the Spanish economy of the inter-war period. That is, we prove the existence of a direct relation between worker's localization decision and the market potential of the host regions. In addition, the direct estimation of the values associated with key parameters in the NEG model allow us to simulate the migratory flows derived from different scenarios of the relative size of regions and the distances between them. We show that in Spain the power of attraction of the agglomerations grew as they increased in size, but the high elasticity es timated for the migration costs reduce the intensity of internal migrations flow. This could help to explain the apparently low intensity of inernal migrations in Spainin Spain until its upsurge during thye 1920s. This also explains the geography of migrations in Spain during this perios, which hardly affected such as Andalusia, Estremadura and Castile-La Mancha) but had an intense effect on the provinces nearest to the principal centres of industrial development
    Keywords: Hysteresys, panel unit root tests, structural break
    JEL: N63 N64 N93 F14 F15
    Date: 2004
  6. By: Mette Ejrnæs (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Karl Gunnar Persson (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Søren Rich (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen)
    Abstract: This paper traces the evolution of the international market for wheat from an emerging market structure after the repeal of the Corn Laws to a mature market characterized by efficient arbitrage after the introduction of the transatlantic telegraph and the growth of trade. Efficiency is documented using traditional price gap accounting as well as error correction modelling. Markets which traded directly with each other as well as markets which did not trade with each other were integrated. The traditional bi-lateral focus in market integration studies has been extended to a multi-variate approach which generates new insights as to the pattern of diffusion of price shocks in the international economy. Shocks in the major importing nation, Britain, dominated in the emerging market phase while shocks in the major exporting economy, United States, dominated international prices movements at the end of the 19th century.
    JEL: N7
    Date: 2004–11
  7. By: William Nordhaus
    Abstract: The present study analyzes the "productivity slowdown" of the 1970s. The study also develops a new data set -- industrial data available back to 1948 -- as well as a new set of tools for decomposing changes in productivity growth. The major result of this study is that the productivity slowdown of the 1970s has survived three decades of scrutiny, conceptual refinements, and data revisions. The slowdown was primarily centered in those sectors that were most energy-intensive, were hardest hit by the energy shocks of the 1970s, and therefore had large output declines. In a sense, the energy shocks were the earthquake, and the industries with the largest slowdown were near the epicenter of the tectonic shifts in the economy.
    JEL: O4 E1
    Date: 2004–12
  8. By: John Joseph Wallis
    Abstract: The critical role of governance in the promotion of economic development has created intense interest in the manner in which the United States eliminated corruption. This paper examines the concept of corruption in American history; tracing the term corruption to its roots in British political philosophy of the 17th and 18th century, and from there back to Machiavelli, Polybius and Artistole. Corruption was defined prior to 1850 in a way that was significantly different from how it was defined in the Progressive Era. "Systematic corruption" embodied the idea that political actors manipulated the economic system to create economic rents that politicians could use to secure control of the government. In other words, politics corrupts economics. The classic cure for systematic corruption was balanced government. Americans fought for independence because they believed that the British government was corrupt. The structure of American constitutions was shaped by the need to implement balanced government. Conflict and debate over the implementation of balanced government dominated the political agenda until the 1840s, when states began moving regulatory policy firmly towards open entry and free competition. By the 1890s, systematic corruption had essentially appeared from political discourse. By then corruption had come to take on its modern meaning: the idea that economic interests corrupt the political process. What modern developing countries with corrupt governments need to learn is how the United States eliminated systematic corruption.
    JEL: B1 N0 N2 N4
    Date: 2004–12
  9. By: Mark Weder
    Abstract: The paper investigates the notion that preference shocks play a central role in our understanding of the Great Depression. I identify a series of universally large negative shocks which destabilized the U.S. during the 1930s. When the artificial economy is paired with variable capital utilization and mildly increasing returns to scale in production, it is able to account for most of the decline in economic activity and it is able to predict realistic persistence.
    Keywords: Great depression, preference shocks, dynamic general equilibrium.
    JEL: E32 N12
    Date: 2004–12
  10. By: Kashyap Vattipalli (ICFAI)
    Abstract: The Japanese banks played a major role in the economic development of Japan during the post-war period between 1945 and 1973. They financed start-up companies and actively funded their expansion. They were prime financiers since there were restrictions on other options of financing such as equities and bonds. But this changed in the 1970s when reforms in the financial sector took place. These reforms eased the restrictions on bond and equity issuance. Financial markets were deregulated and this allowed the major Japanese companies to reduce their dependence on banks. They were able to substitute cheap bond financing for expensive bank credit. This reduced the role of banks as prime financiers. To overcome this situation, banks reorganised their portfolios and started lending to riskier segments like consumer lending and the real-estate industry. This resulted in an asset price bubble, which finally burst in 1989 resulting in huge non-performing loans for Japanese banks. This case enables the reader to understand the effects of reckless lending and how the continued presence of non-performing loans in the banking sector had a deleterious effect on the Japanese economy.
    Keywords: Japanese banking crisis ; Foreign Exchange and Trade Control Act ; Liberalisation ; Asset price bubble ; Government bonds ; Bond Issuance Committee ; Basle capital accord ; Deposit Insurance Corporation ; Financial Supervisory Agency ; Yakuza and Jusen ; Keiretsu and Zaibatsu ; Big bang reforms ; Non-performing loans ; Capital market deregulation ; Capital adequacy ratio
    JEL: A
    Date: 2004–11–25
  11. By: JS Armstrong (The Wharton School - University of Pennsylvania); Roderick J. Brodie (University of Auckland, New Zealand); Andrew G. Parsons (University of Auckland, New Zealand)
    Abstract: We examined three approaches to research in marketing: exploratory hypotheses, dominant hypothesis, and competing hypotheses. Our review of empirical studies on scientific methodology suggests that the use of a single dominant hypothesis lacks objectivity relative to the use of exploratory and competing hypotheses approaches. We then conducted a publication audit of over 1,700 empirical papers in six leading marketing journals during 1984-1999. Of these, 74% used the dominant hypothesis approach, while 13 % used multiple competing hypotheses, and 13% were exploratory. Competing hypotheses were more commonly used for studying methods (25%) than models (17%) and phenomena (7%). Changes in the approach to hypotheses since 1984 have been modest; there was a slight decrease in the percentage of competing hypotheses to 11%, which is explained primarily by an increasing proportion of papers on phenomena. Of the studies based on hypothesis testing, only 11 % described the conditions under which the hypotheses would apply, and dominant hypotheses were below competing hypotheses in this regard. Marketing scientists differed substantially in their opinions about what types of studies should be published and what was published. On average, they did not think dominant hypotheses should be used as often as they were, and they underestimated their use.
    Keywords: marketing, marketing research, marketing science
    JEL: A
    Date: 2004–12–06
  12. By: Nathan Nunn (University of Toronto)
    Abstract: Can Africa's current state of under-development be partially attributed to the large trade in slaves that occurred during the Atlantic, Saharan, Red Sea and Indian Ocean slave trades? To answer this question, I combine shipping data with historical records that report slave ethnicities and construct measures of the number of slaves exported from each country in Africa between 1400 and 1913. I find the number of slaves exported from a country to be an important determinant of economic performance in the second half of the 20th century. To correct for potential biases arising from measurement error and unobservable country characteristics, I instrument slave exports using measures of the distance from each country to the major slave markets around the world. I also find that the importance of the slave trade for contemporary development is a result of its detrimental impact on the formation of domestic institutions, such as the security of private property, the quality of the judicial system, and the overall rule of law. This is the channel through which the slave trade continues to matter today.
    Keywords: Slave trade; Institutions; Africa; Growth
    JEL: F1 F2
    Date: 2004–11–26
  13. By: David S. Bieri (Bank for International Settlements)
    Abstract: The Basel Process is a key element of the global financial system and as such plays an important role in co-ordinating the multilateral efforts of various committees, uniquely geared towards fostering and maintaining financial stability.
    Keywords: Basel Process, Monetary Stability, Financial Stability
    JEL: G18 G28
    Date: 2004–12–07
  14. By: Stanley C. W. Salvary (Canisius College)
    Abstract: Historically, generalization about economic fluctuations in an economic system over extended periods of time has proved to be difficult. Yet, it has been even more difficult to generalize across economic systems. In a historical setting, there are many theories offered to explain the creation of business cycles. In this study it is argued that the business cycle is not caused by a single factor but by a multiplicity of factors, therefore, such competing theories constitute special cases of the business cycle. This study maintains that there are families of business cycles, with each family representing a related set of economic systems. Given a family approach to economic systems, then it is conceivable that a general theory can be developed for each family of economic systems by grouping factors identifiable with particular sets of economic systems. Data from the United Nations for 137 countries were used to establish a classification scheme for families of economic systems. US time series data were examined to assess the plausibility of the general theory for one family of economic systems as advanced in this study.
    Keywords: cycle creation theories, families of cycles, money shocks, investment cycle, credit cycle, monetary dislocation, systems philosophies.
    JEL: E
    Date: 2004–12–08
  15. By: Stanley C. W. Salvary (Canisius College)
    Abstract: The Quantity Theory of Money is implicitly embedded in the arguments for price level adjusted financial statements - inflation accounting. Historically, the instability of commodity prices, which is due to changes in relative prices, is considered by one school of economic thought (monetarism) as a reflection of the instability of the value of nominal money. Monetarists maintain that it is the level of the money supply which accounts for the instability of commodity prices. Hence, (1) all changes in the level of the money supply is deemed responsible for changes in the general level of prices, and (2) with each increase in the general level of prices, paper money is said to lose value. In a money economy, nominal money prices reflect the underlying exchange ratios of the various commodities that are produced and exchanged for nominal money. In the absence of monetary dislocation (monetary revaluation or devaluation), any change in the nominal price of a commodity reflects a change in its purchasing power (a change in its exchange ratio vis-a-vis other commodities). Since the physical form of a commodity is relatively constant while the price varies, the simultaneity of these two conditions produces a sensory illusion that leads the monetarists to argue that the measuring device (money) is defective. This paper attempts to demonstrate (in the absence of monetary dislocation): (1) the stability of paper money, which makes it a valid measuring device; and (2) that the quantity theory of money, which is the basis of constant dollar accounting, is a flawed theory.
    Keywords: price level changes, level of money supply, instability of commodity prices, monetarism, price level adjusted, financial statements, general purchasing power.
    JEL: E
    Date: 2004–12–08
  16. By: William J. Collins (Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University)
    Abstract: This paper explores the political economy of anti-discrimination legislation during the ascendancy of the Civil Rights Movement. It traces the diffusion of state-level fair employment legislation and evaluates the relative importance of various demographic, political and economic factors in promoting such legislation. The empirics indicate that non-southern states with higher proportions of union members, Jews, Catholics, and NAACP members tended to adopt fair employment legislation earlier than other states. There is also some evidence that the likelihood of passage was higher in states with more competitive political systems and in states with neighbors which had already passed a law. Predicted times of fair employment policy adoption for the southern states underscore the importance of federal intervention.
    Date: 2001–02
  17. By: William J. Collins (Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University)
    Abstract: By the time Congress passed the 1964 Civil Rights Act, 98 percent of non-southern blacks (40 percent of all blacks) were already covered by state-level "fair employment" laws which prohibited labor market discrimination. This paper assesses the impact of fair employment legislation on black workers' income, unemployment, labor force participation, and occupational and industrial distributions relative to whites using a difference-in-difference-in-difference framework. In general, the fair employment laws adopted in the 1940s appear to have had larger effects than those adopted in the 1950s, and the laws had relatively small effects on the labor market outcomes of black men compared to those of black women.
    Date: 2001–04
  18. By: William J. Collins (Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University, NBER); Robert A. Margo (Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University, NBER)
    Abstract: In the 1960s numerous cities in the United States experienced violent, race-related civil disturbances. Although social scientists have long studied the causes of the riots, the consequences have received much less attention. This paper examines census data from 1950 to 1980 to measure the riots' impact on the value of central-city residential property, and especially on black-owned property. Both ordinary least squares and two-stage least squares estimates indicate that the riots depressed the median value of black-owned property between 1960 and 1970, with little or no rebound in the 1970s. Analysis of household-level data suggests that the racial gap in the value of property widened in riot-afflicted cities during the 1970s.
    Keywords: Civil disturbance, Watts, Detroit, Newark
    JEL: R0 N92 J15
    Date: 2004–05
  19. By: Martha J. Bailey (Graduate Student at Vanderbilt University); William J. Collins (Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University)
    Abstract: The weekly wage gap between black and white female workers narrowed by 15 percentage points during the 1940s. We employ a semi-parametric technique to decompose changes in the distribution of wages. We find that changes in worker characteristics (such as education, occupation and industry, and region of residence) can account for a significant portion of wage convergence between black and white women, but that changes in the wage structure, including large black-specific gains within regions, occupations, industries, and educational groups, made the largest contributions. The single most important contributing factor to the observed convergence was a sharp increase in the relative wages of service workers (where black workers were heavily concentrated) even as black women moved out of domestic service jobs.
    Keywords: World War II, domestic servants, migration
    JEL: J7 N3
    Date: 2004–06
  20. By: Lionel de Boisdeffre (CERMSEM)
    Abstract: On the example of a pure-exchange financial economy with two periods, incomplete nominal-asset markets and differential information of the adverse selection's type, Cornet-De Boisdeffre (2002) introduced refined concepts of no-arbitrage prices and equilibria, which extended to the asymmetric information setting the classical concepts of the symmetric information literature. We now extend to the asymmetric information setting a standard existence property of symmetric information models. Namely, we prove that no-arbitrage prices fully characterize equilibrium security prices, in the sense that each equilibrium security price is arbitrage-free and each no-arbitrage price can be embedded as a no-arbitrage equilibrium security price. This result holds under the same standard conditions whether agents have symmetric or asymmetric information.
    Keywords: General equilibrium; asymmetric information; arbitrage; inference; existence of equilibrium
    JEL: D52
    Date: 2004–10
  21. By: Douwe Kingma; Wim Suyker
    Abstract: The following frequently asked questions about oil and the world economy are answered (with references): <P> Who are the main oil producers? Where is the oil used? What about oil reserves? How important is oil as an energy carrier? Is oil crucial for the world economy? Has oil become less important? What determines the price of oil? What about the current oil price? Is there only one oil price? How powerful is OPEC? What is the role of speculators? How important are taxes? Is the oil price higher in winter? What implies a higher oil price for the world economy? Are these calculations on oil price shocks without qualification? Are futures good predictors for prices in the near future? What will bring the future?
    Keywords: oil; oil price; opec
    JEL: Q41 Q43 Q48 E3 E66
    Date: 2004–12
  22. By: Guillaume GAULIER; Francoise LEMOINE; Deniz &Uuml;NAL-KESENCI
    Abstract: The paper analyses the rapid progress and the consequences of China's integration in Asian production networks. International processing activities, based on Asian inputs and mainly carried out by Asian affiliates have been the engine of China's trade expansion in the nineties. China's position in &laquo; triangular trade &raquo;, characterised by deficits with Asia in intermediate goods and surpluses with &quot;Western&quot; countries in final goods, is similar to that of ASEAN countries. But the size of China's economy carries the mechanisms of triangular trade to extremes, as China's exports are displacing those of other Asian economies in Western markets at an accelerated pace.
    Date: 2004–11
  23. By: JS Armstrong (The Wharton School - University of Pennsylvania)
    Abstract: Before 1960, little empirical research was done on forecasting methods. Since then, the literature has grown rapidly, especially in the area of judgmental forecasting. This research supports and adds to the forecasting guidelines proposed before 1960, such as the value of combining forecasts. New findings have led to significant gains in our ability to forecast and to help people to use forecasts. What have we reamed about forecasting over the past quarter century? Does recent research provide guidance for making more accurate forecasts, obtaining better assessments of uncertainty, or gaining acceptance of our forecasts? I will first describe forecasting principles that were believed to be the most advanced in 1960. Following that, I will examine the evidence produced since 1960.
    Keywords: forecasting, forecasting research
    JEL: A
    Date: 2004–12–06
  24. By: JS Armstrong (The Wharton School - University of Pennsylvania)
    Abstract: My review of empirical research on scientific publication led to the following conclusions. Three criteria are useful for identifying whether findings are important: replication, validity, and usefulness. A fourth criterion, surprise, applies in some situations. Based on these criteria, important findings resulting from academic research in marketing seem to be rare. To a large extent, this rarity is due to a reward system that is built around subjective peer review. Rather than using peer review as a secret screening process, using an open process likely will improve papers and inform readers. Researchers, journals, business schools, funding agencies, and professional organizations can all contribute to improving the process. For example, researchers should do directed research on papers that contribute to principles. Journals should invite papers that contribute to principles. Business school administrators should reward researchers who make important findings. Funding agencies should base decisions on researchers' prior success in making important findings, and professional organizations should maintain web sites that describe what is known about principles and what research is needed on principles.
    Keywords: marketing, marketing findings
    JEL: A
    Date: 2004–12–06

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