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on Health Economics |
| By: | Martin Gaynor; Amanda Starc |
| Abstract: | The United States relies primarily on private health insurance markets, yet these markets are highly concentrated and becoming more so over time. We document concentration across commercial, Medicare Advantage, and Medicaid markets. We then examine how asymmetric information—particularly adverse selection—interacts with market power to shape premiums, plan design, and consumer welfare. Empirical evidence confirms that insurer consolidation raises premiums. We discuss how antitrust enforcement, risk adjustment, regulation, and informational interventions shape competition and consumer welfare in these markets. |
| JEL: | I11 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34928 |
| By: | Aidan Buehler; Joshua D. Gottlieb; Jeffrey Hicks; Lisa Laun; Mårten Palme; Maria Polyakova; Victoria Udalova; Maria Ventura |
| Abstract: | We compare physician incomes using tax data from the United States, Canada, Sweden, and the Netherlands. Physicians are concentrated in the top percentiles of the income distribution in all four countries, especially in the United States and certain specialties. Physician incomes are highest in the United States, and a decomposition shows that this mainly reflects differences in overall income distributions, rather than physicians’ locations in those distributions. This suggests that broader labor market differences, and thus physicians’ outside options, drive absolute incomes. Shifting US physicians’ incomes to match relative positions in other countries’ distributions would only marginally reduce healthcare spending. |
| JEL: | I13 I18 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34956 |
| By: | Joshua D. Gottlieb; Sean Nicholson |
| Abstract: | We describe competition in the physician market, focusing on how entry barriers and substitution possibilities have changed in recent decades. Regulatory caps on medical school seats and residency slots—especially for high-paying specialties—continue to ration entry, generate high returns for those who gain these slots, and direct the most academically accomplished trainees toward lucrative fields. But trained physicians increasingly compete with nurse practitioners, physician assistants, and other mid-level practitioners in the market for patients. Training of these substitutes has expanded far more rapidly than physician supply. We present key facts about the physician pipeline, a conceptual framework linking specialty earnings to entry barriers, and describe the rise of mid-level providers. These facts mean that effective competition policy in physician markets must look beyond conventional concentration measures and focus on the institutions and laws that govern who can provide medical care. |
| JEL: | I11 J44 L13 L50 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34955 |
| By: | Pestieau, Pierre (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/CORE, Belgium) |
| Abstract: | As the demand for old age long-term care (LTC) continues to grow, it becomes crucial to evaluate the roles of its traditional providers: the state, the market, and the family. Initially, this book focuses on recent research concerning the contributions of families and the marketplace. Subsequently, recognizing the diminishing involvement of families and the limited role of market solutions in addressing LTC needs, it turns its attention to a series of studies that investigate the formulation of public policies aimed at supporting elderly individuals who are without family support and lack sufficient resources. These policies are designed to leverage both market mechanisms and family resources to create a comprehensive support system for the dependent elderly. Additionally, this book explores how different countries, particularly in Europe and North America, address disability and dependence within their LTC systems, revealing a diverse range of strategies and solutions. This comparative analysis helps identify effective practices and areas needing further attention in the structuring of social insurance and support systems. Through this exploration, we aim to foster a deeper understanding of how social norms and family solidarity influence LTC provision and how these elements can be integrated into more robust public policy frameworks. |
| Keywords: | Long-term care ; dependence ; social insurance ; family solidarity ; social norms |
| JEL: | I11 I12 I18 J14 |
| Date: | 2025–08–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cor:louvco:2026001 |
| By: | Nishimura, Y. (University of Osaka); Pestieau, Pierre (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/CORE, Belgium) |
| Abstract: | As income rises, the risk of disability in old age declines, while life expectancy increases. These correlations strengthen the case for public long-term care (LTC) insurance over public pension systems. However, this perspective shifts when considering family solidarity—specifically, the informal care provided by spouses and children to elderly relatives. When viewed through the lens of altruistic caregiving motives, the argument for social LTC insurance becomes more nuanced. The interplay between formal and informal care is a key factor in shaping optimal policy. In this paper, we demonstrate that when family members reliably provide informal care, the design of a comprehensive public LTC system depends on the existence of a private insurance and on the degree of substitutability between informal and formal care. |
| Keywords: | Long-term care ; mortality risk ; disability risk ; informal care |
| JEL: | H2 H5 |
| Date: | 2025–06–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cor:louvco:2025012 |
| By: | Perelman, Sergio (Université de Liège); Pestieau, Pierre (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/CORE, Belgium) |
| Abstract: | The relationship between informal and formal care for disabled elderly individuals -whether they function as substitutes or complements- represents a fundamental question for optimizing public resource allocation in aging societies. We develop a theoretical framework demonstrating that long-term care (LTC) policy design hinges critically on this relationship. Using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we provide empirical evidence to address this pivotal question. |
| Keywords: | Long term care ; informal versus formal care ; social insurance |
| JEL: | H I |
| Date: | 2025–06–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cor:louvco:2025016 |
| By: | David Crainich (LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Léontine Goldzahl (IÉSEG School Of Management [Puteaux]); Florence Jusot (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Doriane Mignon (University of Manchester [Manchester], NTNU - Norwegian University of Science and Technology = Norges Teknisk-Naturvitenskapelige Universitet = Norjan teknis-luonnontieteellinen yliopisto) |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates the role of two demand-side determinants of long-term care insurance: correlation preference and relative preference for quality of life over wealth. We model the effect of those preferences on the joint decision to buy long-term care and long-term care insurance contract. We test the model using data from a laboratory experiment in France. While the experimental results offer only partial support for the theoretical predictions - specifically, correlation aversion does not account for over-insurance - our analysis provides evidence that correlation seeking and the relative preference for quality of life over wealth explain the limited uptake of long-term care insurance. |
| Keywords: | risk preference, Laboratory experiment, Long-term care insurance demand |
| Date: | 2025–07–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05536893 |
| By: | David H. Howard; Jetson Leder-Luis |
| Abstract: | The use of federal anti-fraud laws to address unnecessary medical care is controversial. Targeted providers frequently argue that, in their judgment, the treatment in question was appropriate. We examine the effects of anti-fraud litigation against hospitals for over-admitting patients from the emergency department, using 100% Medicare claims for 2005-2019 and a design based on the staggered rollout of these lawsuits. We find that anti-fraud lawsuits reduced admission rates by 3.6 percentage points without increasing mortality rates. We estimate five-year savings to Medicare of $1.3 billion. Our results suggest that anti-fraud enforcement can be successful in reducing costly, unnecessary care. |
| JEL: | D73 I18 K42 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34938 |
| By: | Toikka, Max; Saxell, Tanja; Siikanen, Markku |
| Abstract: | We examine the effects of private sector expansion on local labor markets for social and health care workers using comprehensive administrative data and a difference-in-differences design based on the staggered entry of private providers. Entry increases private sector employment, crowding out public employment with little change in total employment. Public sector wages remain largely unchanged, while private sector wages rise modestly. Public providers mitigate staffing shortages by purchasing more services from private providers without raising workloads for remaining workers. The decline in the public wage bill largely offsets higher private service spending, leaving total public expenditure on social and health services almost unchanged. |
| Keywords: | local labor markets, entry, mixed markets, social and health care, outsourcing, wage rigidity, labor scarcity, H44, L33, I11, J21, J44, C23, fi=Kunnat ja hyvinvointialueet|sv=Kommuner och välfärdsområden|en=Municipalities and wellbeing services counties|, fi=Terveyspalvelut|sv=Hälsovårdstjänster|en=Healthcare services|, fi=Työmarkkinat|sv=Arbetsmarknad|en=Labour markets|, |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fer:wpaper:184 |
| By: | Elena Sanjuan (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how parental consent requirements and access frictions jointly shape teenage reproductive decisions. Exploiting the Spanish 2015 reform that mandated parental consent for 16–17-year-olds, together with Spanish administrative microdata on all registered abortions and births, I find that the reform led to declines in both abortions and pregnancies among affected teenagers. Consistent with a two-stage decision framework, most of the reduction in abortions operates through a decrease in pregnancies, indicating behavioral responses before pregnancy. A simple model of teenage abortion decisions is used to interpret these findings and to clarify how legal and access barriers interact. Using data on proximity to abortion centers and local religiosity, I show how these access frictions operate in the context of parental consent requirements. Where travel costs are high, parental involvement is effectively required even in the absence of formal consent laws, limiting the impact of the reform. When parental consent does bind, local norms shape the margin of adjustment: in more traditional municipalities, the reform primarily affects abortion decisions conditional on pregnancy. |
| Keywords: | Parental consent, abortion decision, access frictions, distance, religiosity. |
| JEL: | J13 I12 I18 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2026_2602 |
| By: | Timothy J Moore (Purdue University); William W. Olney (Williams College); Benjamin Hansen (University of Oregon); |
| Abstract: | "The U.S. opioid crisis is now driven by fentanyl, a powerful synthetic opioid that currently accounts for 90% of all opioid deaths. Fentanyl is smuggled from abroad, with little evidence of how this happens. We find a positive relationship between state-level imports and drug overdoses, which is consistent with fentanyl smuggling occurring via legal trade flows. This relationship accounts for 14, 000-20, 000 deaths per year, and is not explained by geographic differences in ``deaths of despair, '' general demand for opioids, or import competition. Our results suggest that fentanyl smuggling via imports is pervasive and a key determinant of recent opioid problems." |
| Keywords: | opioid crisis, fentanyl, drug overdoses, smuggling, drug trafficking, imports |
| JEL: | K4 F1 F6 |
| Date: | 2025–08–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wil:wileco:2025_115 |
| By: | Becker, Sascha O.; Bentzen, Jeanet Sinding; Kok, Chun Chee (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/CORE, Belgium) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a survey of the literature on gender differences in religiosity and the influence of religion on gender-related economic and social outcomes. Part I examines why women tend to be more religious than men, discussing central explanations. Part II explores how religion impacts various gender-related outcomes, such as gender norms and attitudes, education, labor market participation, fertility, health, legal institutions and reforms, and discrimination. Within each domain, we distinguish between effects driven by individual religiosity (intensity of religious practice or belief) and those driven by their religious denomination. We synthesize findings from numerous studies, highlighting data sources, measures of religion and gender outcomes, and empirical strategies. We focus on studies with credible causal identification—such as natural experiments, instrumental variable approaches, and policy changes—to uncover the impact of religion on outcomes. Correlational studies are also reviewed to provide context. Across studies, the evidence suggests that religious teachings and participation often reinforce traditional gender roles, affecting women’s education, labor force participation, and fertility choices, although there are important nuances and exceptions. We also document instances where secular reforms or religious movements have altered these outcomes. The survey concludes by identifying gaps in the literature and suggesting directions for future research. An important take-away from our review is that rigorous empirical studies are scarce, leaving room for novel causal studies in this field. |
| Date: | 2025–11–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cor:louvco:2025020 |
| By: | Martin Huber; Sarina Joy Oberh\"ansli |
| Abstract: | We propose a difference-in-differences (DiD) framework with mediation for possibly multivalued discrete or continuous treatments and mediators, aimed at identifying the direct effect of the treatment on the outcome (net of effects operating through the mediator), the indirect effect via the mediator, and the joint effects of treatment and mediator, consistent with the framework of dynamic treatment effects. Identification relies on a conditional parallel trends assumption imposed on the mean potential outcome across treatment and mediator states, or (depending on the causal parameter) additionally on the mean potential outcomes and potential mediator distributions across treatment states. We propose ATET estimators for repeated cross sections and panel data within the double/debiased machine learning framework, which allows for data-driven control of covariates, and we establish their asymptotic normality under standard regularity conditions. We investigate the finite-sample performance of the proposed methods in a simulation study and illustrate our approach in an empirical application to the US National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, estimating the direct effect of health care coverage on general health as well as the indirect effect operating through routine checkups. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.23877 |
| By: | David Crainich (LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes the propensity to seek protection against health risks through insurance contracts and savings. We propose a theoretical model that characterizes the joint demand for these two risk management instruments when individuals are exposed to a disease that has financial and health consequences. We then establish the conditions under which reduced wealth and deteriorated health have a negative effect on this joint demand. Regarding the specific effect of health status on the propensity to take out insurance and save, recent experimental studies indicate that these conditions are likely to be met in practice, raising the question of financial protection for the most vulnerable individuals. |
| Keywords: | health status, insurance, precautionary savings, health risk |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05538857 |
| By: | Nikos Benos (University of Ioannina); Stelios Karagiannis (European Training Foundation); Anastasia Litina (University of Macedonia); Sofia Tsitou (University of Macedonia) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the long-term impact of the 1920s forced displacement of Asia Minor refugees on contemporary health behaviors in Greece. Using regionally representative data from the 2019 Greek Health Survey and historical refugee settlement patterns, we find that individuals living in areas with higher historical shares of refugees are significantly more likely to engage in preventive health care, consult medical professionals, participate in physical activity, and maintain healthy dietary habits. These effects persist after controlling for socioeconomic, demographic, and geographic factors, and are robust to various specifications, including the exclusion of Attica, the main internal migration hub, and age-stratified analyses. To explain these findings, we discuss four plausible mechanisms: the relatively higher human capital and educational attainment of the refugee population, their early exposure to adverse health conditions, large-scale public infrastructure investments prompted by the resettlement effort, and the cultural diffusion of health-conscious norms and practices. Together, our results suggest that historical episodes of forced migration can have durable effects on public health behavior through intergenerational transmission of norms and institutional legacies, with implications for both migration policy and health inequality. |
| Keywords: | Forced migration, Refugees, Health behavior, Preventive care, Cultural persistence, Historical legacies, Human capital, Public health infrastructure, Intergenerational transmission, Greece, Asia Minor refugees |
| JEL: | C24 I20 I12 N34 N44 N64 N74 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2026_07 |
| By: | Lünich, Marco; Keller, Birte; Flaßhoff, Florian Golo; Marcinkowski, Frank |
| Abstract: | This brief report presents the key findings of a segmentation study conducted in June 2025 as part of the research project Opinion Monitor Artificial Intelligence 3.0. It analyzes the attitudes, assessments, and reactions of 1, 987 working people in Germany toward the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in the workplace, differentiated by occupational class based on the Oesch classification. The results show marked differences between occupational classes. Higher-skilled and technically oriented groups evaluate AI more positively, see greater potential professional benefits, and report fewer concerns about stress and substitution. Occupational classes with organizational or interpersonal work logic and lower skill levels, on the other hand, react more ambivalently and express concerns more frequently, particularly with regard to data protection, social contacts, and the general replaceability of human labor. Across all occupational classes, the potential for AI to reduce workloads and improve health and safety is recognized, while resistance and protest tendencies remain moderate overall. Overall, the findings illustrate that perceptions of AI in the workplace are strongly influenced by professional position, work logic, and qualifications. |
| Date: | 2026–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:xzjb9_v1 |
| By: | Bakhtiar, M. Mehrab; Karim, Ridwan |
| Abstract: | Identifying threshold effects of extreme heat is key to understanding the true scale of climate-related risks to human capital development. This paper investigates how extreme heat shapes adolescent schooling and labor outcomes in rural Bangladesh, combining household survey data on adolescents with high-resolution temperature records to estimate the effects of prior-year, cumulative, and early-life heat exposure. We identify a precise temperature threshold at 36°C, above which each additional day reduces school attendance by 3.1 percentage points and increases child labor by 2.5 percentage points. Below this threshold, moderate heat (30-36°C) shows minimal single-year effects, though cumulative exposure over three years reveals significant negative impacts, indicating limited household adaptation. Effects are disproportionately concentrated among girls, who shift primarily toward household work rather than wage labor. Three interconnected channels drive these effects: heat-induced income shocks (11% reduction in household income), increased domestic labor demands from heat-related illness, and restrictive gender norms that amplify these impacts by magnifying girls’ household responsibilities. Extending the analysis to early-life conditions, exposure during the first 1, 000 days also reduces adolescent schooling probability by 3.4-3.8 percentage points, with strongest effects at ages one and two. Boys show slightly larger early-life effects, contrasting with girls’ greater vulnerability to contemporaneous exposure, suggesting distinct mechanisms operating through biological development versus gendered household labor allocation. The findings point to both immediate income-mediated responses and long-term developmental pathways, with implications for temperature-triggered social protection, school infrastructure investments, and early-life health interventions. |
| Keywords: | heat stress; schools; children; rural areas; labour; heatwaves; child labour; climate change; adolescents; Bangladesh; Asia; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:180558 |
| By: | Davide Gritti; Dina Maskileyson; Raffaele Grotti; Stefani Scherer |
| Abstract: | Prior research documents a robust wealth–health gradient, yet comparative evidence is largely confined to older adults and offers limited insight into how wealth–related health inequality is patterned across adulthood and institutional contexts. Drawing on life–course perspectives on age–graded stratification and a healthcare–system typology, we examine how the wealth–health gradient varies across age groups in seven OECD countries. Using harmonized microdata from the Luxembourg Wealth Study (LWS), we pool 30 repeated cross–sections from Australia, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States (2002–2022), yielding 450, 233 adults aged 25–80. Wealth is measured as gross non–financial and financial assets (ranked into within country–year quintiles), and health is measured with self–rated health. We assess wealth–health inequality by age using Wagstaff–normalized concentration indices and country–specific OLS models with wealth–by–age interactions and covariate adjustment. Across all countries and age groups, health is consistently concentrated among wealthier individuals. Inequality typically rises from ages 25–35 to a late–midlife peak (often 56–65) and attenuates at ages 66–80, with this rise–and–fall pattern most evident in the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom. Cross–national differences broadly align with Reibling et al.’s OECD healthcare–system typology: private systems show the steepest gradients and regulation–oriented systems more compressed gradients, yet the United Kingdom is a notable outlier, and Italy and Spain show comparatively sustained gradients into older ages. Comparing wealth–health gradients across age groups reveals systematic age–graded patterns that are central to life–course perspectives on stratification. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:lwswps:52 |
| By: | Bousselin, Audrey (Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER)); Brocas, Isabelle (University of Southern California; CEPR; and IAST); Menta, Giorgia (Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER)); Proto, Eugenio (University of Glasgow; CEPR; CESifo; and IZA) |
| Abstract: | We document systematic parental under-reporting of children's socio-emotional difficulties relative to children's self-reports, using representative data from Luxembourg, the United Kingdom, and Australia. To study the origins of this discrepancy, we develop a simple theoretical framework showing how parent-child gaps can arise from information frictions and differences in reporting styles. We complement the model with a novel survey design that elicits both parental beliefs about children's latent socio-emotional wellbeing and parental beliefs about children's self-reports, allowing us to disentangle the different sources of the discrepancy. Using a new survey from Luxembourg, we estimate that approximately 70% of the observed gap is attributable to information frictions. Consistent with a Bayesian model of signal extraction, belief accuracy declines when children experience high levels of distress. The precision of second-order beliefs is negatively correlated with parental education, income, and employment, and - paradoxically - with more accurate priors about aggregate parental under-reporting, a pattern we refer to as the Capacity Paradox. As predicted by the model, a randomized information intervention shifts both first- and second-order beliefs only among parents with weak priors and generates heterogeneous effects on intended parental investments. These findings highlight the central role of second-order beliefs in understanding parental misperceptions and the potential for targeted information policies to improve parental awareness of children's socio-emotional wellbeing. |
| Keywords: | Parental beliefs; Child wellbeing; Information frictions; Second-order beliefs; Bayesian learning; Reporting bias; Information interventions JEL Classification: J13, J24, I10, I31 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:795 |
| By: | Annie McGrew; Yana Rodgers |
| Abstract: | With the reversal of Roe v. Wade in 2022, many U.S. employers announced they would reimburse employees for abortion-related travel expenses. This action complements increasingly common employer policies subsidizing employee access to assisted reproductive technologies such as in-vitro fertilization and egg freezing. This article reflects on why employers offer these benefits and whether they enhance or undermine reproductive justice. From the employer's perspective, abortion and assisted reproductive technologies help women to plan childbearing around the demands of their jobs. Both are associated with delayed childbirth and reduced fertility, which lower the costs of motherhood to employers. However, firm subsidization of these services does not further reproductive justice because it reifies structures which incentivize women to delay childbirth and reduce fertility, and it reinforces economic and reproductive inequalities. We conclude by questioning whether reproductive justice is possible without transforming the economy so that it prioritizes care over profits. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.00830 |
| By: | Marcella Alsan; Joshua Schwartzstein; Stefanie Stantcheva |
| Abstract: | Lethal firearm ownership is deeply polarizing in the United States. We show that beneath this polarization, owners and non-owners share a common objective — safety — but disagree sharply about whether lethal firearms achieve it. Using an original survey of more than 5, 400 respondents combined with randomized experiments, we document that owners feel safe and confident with firearms, while non-owners on balance feel less safe around them and perceive large private costs and social harms. Demand for lethal firearms is nonetheless potentially large and growing: one-third of non-owners express interest in acquiring one — these individuals report the lowest day-to-day safety — while very few owners would consider reducing their holdings. Persuading owners to relinquish firearms without any replacement appears unrealistic; the more tractable margins may be safe storage and non-lethal substitution for additional purchases. We organize these patterns through a framework centered on a perceived safety possibilities frontier (SPF) — the safety outcomes a household believes achievable with different combinations of lethal and non-lethal tools. Households may differ in firearm demand because they face different risk environments, weigh protective benefits against harms differently, or hold different beliefs about the frontier. Our descriptive evidence points to heterogeneous beliefs as important drivers, suggesting that levers such as information could shift the perceived frontier. These patterns motivate three experimental treatments: one on the private legal/medical costs of lethal firearm ownership, and two on a non-lethal firearm (NLFA), with and without a conservative pundit’s endorsement. The private-cost treatment increases concern about harms among all respondents and support for safe storage policies, and modestly raises stated willingness to keep lethal firearms locked. NLFA treatments raise willingness to pay for an NLFA, to keep lethal firearms locked, and support for incapacitating over lethal firearms and for policies encouraging NLFAs. These effects are largely persistent. Importantly, NLFA information does not increase willingness to reduce lethal firearm ownership but does increase willingness to store lethal firearms safely. Our results suggest that many owners perceive the SPF differently from nonowners, neglecting harms or less-lethal alternatives, yet remain open to such tools. Overall, individuals share a common goal — safety — yet disagree about the means. Although these disagreements appear entrenched, people remain receptive to alternatives that might command broader agreement. |
| JEL: | H0 H80 I1 K0 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34962 |