|
on Health Economics |
| By: | Carol Propper |
| Abstract: | In the last two decades European policy makers have sought to increase the use of market mechanisms in the delivery of healthcare. These reforms introduce competition and choice into previously heavily constrained environments. This leads to a set of interesting economic issues that have been addressed in a range of papers, both theoretical and empirical. This paper examines whether this popular reform model has resulted in improvements in outcomes for patients and/or taxpayers. It synthesises the existing economic analyses, highlights what is known and what is not, and signals potential next steps for economic research. |
| Keywords: | Choice, competition, healthcare markets, policy reform |
| JEL: | I11 H42 H44 |
| Date: | 2026–07–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mhe:chemon:paper_1783993131368_58 |
| By: | Meltem N. Daysal; Camille Fredrickson; Ida Lykke Kristiansen; Mircea Trandafir; Jonathan Zhang; N. Meltem Daysal |
| Abstract: | We estimate the causal impacts of GLP-1 treatment on labor market outcomes using linked Danish administrative data and a matched stacked difference-in-differences design. We compare patients who initiate GLP-1 treatment during the first two years of Semaglutide availability to observably similar patients who initiate four years later. We find that GLP-1 treatment reduces long-term sickness leave by 17.3%. We estimate total fiscal benefits of GLP-1 initiation of approximately 1.3–1.5% of annual labor income per employed individual. We do not detect statistically significant or economically meaningful impacts on income, labor force participation, or employment over four years. |
| Keywords: | GLP-1, diabetes, obesity, fiscal spillover |
| JEL: | H51 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12810 |
| By: | Andreas Haller; Stefan Staubli |
| Abstract: | The central trade-off for designing Disability Insurance (DI) is between providing insurance to those in need while maintaining incentives to work. This paper develops a novel revealed-preference approach to identify the insurance value of DI benefits. We show that comparing the DI take-up response to a change in benefits versus a change in wages identifies the insurance value. Implementing our framework in Canada, we estimate that increasing DI benefits by $1 creates an additional disincentive cost of $0.60 but creates an insurance value of $2.20. Thus, our approach suggests that DI benefits are not overly generous in the Canadian context. |
| Keywords: | disability insurance, take-up, benefits, policy reform |
| JEL: | H53 H55 J14 J21 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12790 |
| By: | Ahammer, Alexander; Halla, Martin; Heckl, Pia; Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf |
| Abstract: | Long-term unemployment among older workers is particularly difficult to overcome. We study the impacts of a large-scale job guarantee program that offered up to two years of fully subsidized employment to long-term unemployed individuals aged 50 and above. Using a sharp age-based discontinuity in eligibility, we find that participation increased regular, unsubsidized employment by 43 percentage points two years after the program ended. The gains are driven by transitions into new firms and industries, rather than continued subsidized employment, and we find no evidence of displacement effects for non-participants or spillovers to family members. The program had no measurable short-run health effects. |
| Keywords: | Long-term unemployment; Temporary job guarantee; Subsidized employment; Health status |
| JEL: | J64 J08 J78 I14 H51 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20939 |
| By: | Michel H. Boudreaux; Brandy Lipton; Melissa McInerney |
| Abstract: | Vision problems are prevalent among Medicare beneficiaries, with the majority having treatable conditions including uncorrected refractive error and cataracts. However, traditional Medicare does not cover routine eye exams or eyeglasses, and Medicare Advantage supplemental vision benefits often include low annual limits. We examine the effects of Medicaid routine vision benefits among adults dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid, a population with high rates of vision impairment, morbidity, and disability. Using 2002-2019 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey data and a difference-in-differences design, we estimate that Medicaid routine vision benefits increase past-year eye exams, eyeglasses purchases, and Medicaid spending on eyeglasses while reducing out-of-pocket spending. We also find suggestive evidence of spillovers to Medicare Advantage spending on eyeglasses, consistent with Medicaid routine vision coverage inducing additional eyeglasses purchases among Medicare Advantage enrollees with supplemental vision benefits, although estimates are modest. |
| JEL: | H0 I1 I13 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35384 |
| By: | Banerjee, Subarna; Sen, Gitanjali |
| Abstract: | We estimate the association between high-stakes exams and student suicides in India using geocoded, high-frequency media data. Student suicides rise by 17.5 percent during NEET-UG or JEE-Mains exam months, with no comparable pattern around lower-stakes board exams or among adults. Stronger associations are seen among girls. Associations being higher in high-participation states, urbanised districts, and in months when high-stakes and board exams coincide suggest that peer pressure and economic incentives in highly competitive environments may worsen mental health. Using cyclone and election months as potential drivers of media attention, we rule out media bias driving our results. Event-study estimates show suicides concentrating in months before and during exams, with a weaker association around result announcements. While falsification exercises strengthen our findings, Oster Bounds analysis addresses potential omitted variable bias. Lacking granular mental health data, we generate an alternative database to address a key policy question that can spur future research. |
| Keywords: | Mental Health, Suicides, Education, High-stakes exams, Media, India |
| JEL: | I24 I12 J13 C23 I18 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1781 |
| By: | Daniel S. Hamermesh |
| Abstract: | Using diaries covering 25-61-year-olds in the American Time Use Survey 2009-24, this study demonstrates that temporal variety—doing more different things in a day—is income superior. Linking these data to underlying Current Population Surveys, propensity-score models show that people stating that they have a mobility/physical disability in each of two consecutive annual surveys undertake almost 4 percent fewer activities per day than other, demographically identical individuals. They also earn about 50 percent less. Combining the estimated impact of income on temporal variety with the implied reductions in variety incurred by those with the disability yields a monetary equivalent of lost variety exceeding that of lost earnings. Measuring disability status only once yields much smaller estimated shortfalls in temporal variety and earnings. That suggests that one-time self-reports of disabilities, which underlie the bulk of studies on the impacts of disabilities on earnings, also underestimate long-term effects. |
| JEL: | J22 K13 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35417 |
| By: | Dante Donati; Nandan Rao; Victor Orozco-Olvera; Ana Maria Muñoz Boudet |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates a nationwide malaria prevention campaign delivered through social media in India using a district-level cluster-randomized controlled trial. We combine two survey samples(N = 8, 253) with administrative health records to assess effects on offline malaria-related behaviors and health outcomes. In the survey data, average treatment effects on protective behaviors, care-seeking intentions, and self-reported malaria incidence were small and insignificant. Administrative data similarly showed no detectable effect on overall recorded incidence. Post-hoc heterogeneity analysis, however, suggests that detectable effects were concentrated among households with higher socioeconomic status (SES) and in urban areas: for higher-SES households, bednet use increased during the campaign and self-reported malaria incidence declined afterward. In administrative records, monthly malaria incidence in urban areas fell by 6.2 cases per million people, a 33% decline relative to the pre-treatment rate. By contrast, estimates for lower-SES households and rural areas, which face higher malaria risk, were small and insignificant. In a second individual-level feed experiment (N = 1, 542) that made ad delivery and exposure more comparable across SES groups, the ads increased bednet use and timely treatment-seeking intentions, with no detectable differences by SES. These patterns are consistent with delivery frictions contributing to the campaign's limited average impact, highlighting the importance of better targeting and measurement in social media public-health campaigns. |
| Keywords: | advertising, field experiments, public health, regulation, social media, targeting |
| JEL: | C93 I12 I18 L82 M31 M37 M38 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12767 |
| By: | Dettoni, Robinson (Department of Economics, Universidad de Santiago de Chile, Santiago, Chile); Böckerman, Petri (University of Jyväskylä); Bahamondes, Cliff (Department of Economics, Universidad de Santiago de Chile, Santiago, Chile); Vasquez, Jose (Department of Economics, Universidad de Santiago de Chile, Santiago, Chile); Yévenes, Carlos (Department of Economics, Universidad de Santiago de Chile, Santiago, Chile); Raitakari, Olli (University of Turku); Viinikainen, Jutta (Jyväskylä University School of Business and Economics); Lehtimäki, Terho (University of Tampere); Pehkonen, Jaakko (Jyväskylä University School of Business and Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the causal effect of body mass index (BMI) on hypertension risk using data from the Young Finns Study. The empirical framework combines genetic instruments for BMI with a triangular copula model that accommodates a binary outcome and a continuous endogenous treatment, allowing unobserved determinants of BMI and hypertension to be correlated through alternative symmetric and asymmetric copula specifications. Sensitivity analyses examine alternative copula families and nested BMI genetic-score constructions to address pleiotropy concerns. The results show that higher BMI increases hypertension risk across ordered blood-pressure severity categories. Probability-scale treatment effects reveal a nonlinear pattern: marginal risk is concentrated in clinically relevant regions of the BMI distribution and shifts from early blood-pressure elevation toward more severe hypertension as body mass increases. The findings illustrate how genetic instruments and copula-based triangular models can be combined to study endogenous continuous treatments with nonlinear health outcomes, while identifying where along the BMI distribution marginal increases in body mass are most consequential for blood-pressure risk. |
| Keywords: | body mass index, hypertension, genetic instruments, copula models, endogeneity, mendelian randomization, latent dependence |
| JEL: | I12 I14 C14 C51 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18748 |
| By: | Philip Trammell; Charles I. Jones |
| Abstract: | Real GDP per person is a widely used proxy for living standards, but it can be a poor welfare measure when new goods or quality improvements matter, when nonmarket goods are significant, and when preferences are nonhomothetic --- all of which are true in practice. We propose an alternative that is robust to these concerns: under weak conditions, the growth rate of the value of a statistical life (VSL), together with standard Euler-equation objects, identifies the growth rate of lifetime utility. The intuition is that people routinely trade off consumption against mortality risk, and their willingness to pay for small risk reductions reveals the value of remaining lifetime utility. Implementing this approach for the United States suggests that lifetime utility may have risen by more than a factor of five since 1940, whereas conventional consumption-based calculations using a stable log/CRRA flow utility imply much smaller gains, on the order of a doubling. This calculation is sensitive to measures of the growth rate of the VSL, the rate of time preference, and the interest rate. For example, if the correct interest rate is 4 percentage points higher than the T-bill rate, then lifetime utility would be measured to have declined by more than half since 1940. |
| JEL: | E01 O4 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35382 |
| By: | Janet Currie; N. Meltem Daysal; Mette Gørtz; Jonas Hirani; Jonathan Zhang |
| Abstract: | We ask how a younger sibling’s physical disability affects sibling mental health using Danish register data on families with three or more children. Difference-in-difference models compare first- and second-born children when the third-born does or does not have a disability. Use of mental health services increases 13% among second-born children, with a 23% increase in psychiatric visits and an 18% increase in use of psychiatric medications. Effects are concentrated in households where the mother has less than high school and persist after conditioning on child test scores. Parental responses suggest that caregiving demands, stress, and strained resources are potential mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | disability, mental health, siblings, children |
| JEL: | I14 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12802 |
| By: | David Hall; Benjamin Hansen; Kyutaro Matsuzawa |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of drug decriminalization on overdose mortality using Oregon's Measure 110 and Washington's Blake decision. Synthetic-control estimates show that both decriminalization regimes sharply reduced drug arrests and were followed by sustained increases in overdose mortality relative to matched counterfactuals. The estimates imply approximately 1, 186 excess deaths in Oregon and 1, 895 in Washington from 2021 through 2023. We also revisit the role of fentanyl supply shocks. A fentanyl-share control may partly capture enforcement-driven declines in non-fentanyl NFLIS reports, while alternative fentanyl measures leave positive overdose effects. |
| JEL: | I12 I18 K40 K42 K49 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35427 |
| By: | Amorim, Guilherme; Britto, Diogo; Fonseca, Alexandre; Sampaio, Breno |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of job loss and unemployment insurance (UI) on health among Brazilian workers. We construct a novel dataset linking individual-level administrative records on employment, hospital discharges, and mortality for a 17-year period, rarely available in the context of developing countries. Leveraging mass layoffs for identification, we find that job loss increases hospitalization (+33%) and mortality risks (+23%) for male workers, while women are not affected. These effects are pervasive over the distribution of age, tenure, income and education, and men's children are also negatively affected. Remarkably, about half of these impacts are driven by external causes associated with accidents and the violent Brazilian context. Using a regression discontinuity design, we show that access to UI partially mitigates the adverse effects of job loss on health. Our results indicate that the health costs of job loss are only partially explained by the income losses associated with job displacement. |
| JEL: | I12 J63 J65 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20832 |
| By: | Aurélien Baillon (emlyon Business School); Joseph Capuno (University of the Philippines Diliman); Aleli Kraft (University of the Philippines Diliman); Jenny Kudymowa (Rethink Priorities); Owen O'Donnell (Erasmus University Rotterdam) |
| Abstract: | We test whether a conditional cash lottery targets prevention on those doing too little because of inverse-S probability distortion that also causes overvaluation of a lottery. Consistent with theory, Filipinos perceiving their cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in a wide intermediate interval (10%, 85%] are 3 percentage points (60%) less likely to have a check-up before baseline if they exhibit inverse- S distortion. A random lottery offer conditional on going for a check-up (CVD screening) increases the probability by 47 points overall. Estimates of compliance and lottery-induced CVD preventive care are larger (not significantly) for inverse- S (but also S) types perceiving intermediate risk. |
| Keywords: | Prospect Theory, Probability Weighting, Behavioral Incentive, Lottery, Self-selection |
| JEL: | D81 D91 I12 |
| Date: | 2026–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260012 |
| By: | Walker, Michael; Shankar, Nick; Miguel, Edward; Egger, Dennis; Killeen, Grady |
| Abstract: | We estimate the impacts of large-scale unconditional cash transfers on child survival. One-time transfers of USD 1000 were provided to over 10, 500 poor households across 653 randomized villages in Kenya. We collected census data on over 100, 000 births, including on mortality and cause of death, and detailed data on household health behaviors. Unconditional cash transfers (accounting for spillovers) lead to 48% fewer infant deaths before age one and 45% fewer child deaths before age five. Detailed data on cause of death, transfer timing relative to birth, and the location of health facilities indicate that unconditional cash transfers and access to delivery care are complements in generating mortality reductions: the largest gains are estimated in neonatal and maternal causes of death largely preventable by appropriate obstetric care and among households living close to physician-staffed facilities and those who receive the transfer around the time of birth, and treatment leads to a large increase in hospital deliveries (by 45%). The infant and child mortality declines are concentrated among poorer households with below median assets or predicted consumption. The transfers also result in a substantial decline of 51% in female labor supply in the three months before and the three months after a birth, and improved child nutrition. Infant and child mortality largely revert to pre-program levels after cash transfers end. Despite not being the main aim of the original program, we show that unconditional cash transfers in this setting may be a cost-effective way to reduce infant and child deaths. |
| Keywords: | Infant and child mortality; Unconditional cash transfers; Kenya |
| JEL: | I15 O1 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20995 |
| By: | Boaz Abramson (Columbia GSB); Job Boerma (University of Wisconsin-Madison); Diego Daruich (University of Southern California); Aleh Tsyvinski (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | We develop a quantitative macroeconomic theory of child mental health. The theory is grounded in child psychiatry, formalized in a life-cycle heterogeneous agent model of child development, and disciplined using micro data on mental health of children and parents. Intergenerational transmission of mental illness arises due to both biological factors and parental behavior. Parents experiencing mental illness have negative expectations and lose time due to rumination. As a result, they invest less in their child's mental health. We use the model to evaluate policies designed to improve child mental health. We show that subsidizing mental health treatment for children generates sizable welfare gains. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2528 |
| By: | Mark Dickie; Matthew J. Neidell |
| Abstract: | Environmental decisions often impact health, yet morbidity valuation remains challenging, with current approaches like cost-of-illness (COI) measures and Quality-Adjusted Life Years failing to reflect individuals’ willingness to pay to avoid adverse health states. This paper introduces a novel framework for valuing morbidity across health conditions, deriving willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimates using widely available preference weights and a baseline condition with known WTP. Our analysis reveals WTP estimates significantly exceeding commonly used COI measures, indicating undervaluation of health states in policy evaluations. Sensitivity analyses highlight variations consistent with those for the value of statistical life, underscoring the method's robustness. This framework offers a practical tool for integrating morbidity into analyses of environmental policy. |
| JEL: | D61 I18 Q51 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35420 |
| By: | Cermeño, Alexandra L.; Palma, Nuno; Pistola, Renato |
| Abstract: | Using three independent archival sources, we previously documented substantial declines in stunting and wasting in Portugal during the mid-twentieth century. This note revisits the original evidence, clarifies the descriptive scope of our analysis, and situates the observed anthropometric changes within the broader evolution of public health, nutrition, and social policy in Portugal. We show that the timing and magnitude of the declines are robust to the alternative data restrictions and aggregation choices examined here, and that the documented improvements are consistent with contemporaneous expansions in health infrastructure and access documented in the historical record. |
| Keywords: | Anthropometrics; Poverty; Child health; Economic development |
| JEL: | I15 N34 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20942 |
| By: | Nursena Aksunger (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Wendy Janssens (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Menno Pradhan (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the causal relationship between student debt and mental health using the 2015 Dutch student finance reform as a natural experiment. The reform replaced a universal grant with income-contingent loans for higher-education students, leaving vocational students unaffected and serving as a natural comparison group. Low-income students were partly compensated through expanded targeted support. Using nationwide administrative data from Statistics Netherlands, we implement a difference-in-differences design comparing clinically diagnosed depression, anxiety, and broader mental health outcomes between higher education and vocational education students before and after the reform. We find no evidence of adverse mental health effects from the transition to debt-based financing. At the same time, students adjusted their behaviour by marginally increasing labour earnings and remaining longer in co-residence with their parents. These findings suggest that behavioural responses to the reform may have mitigated financial strain, although lenient repayment terms likely also cushioned the impact of the reform. Overall, the results indicate that the mental health impact of student debt may depend not only on financial exposure but also on institutional context and individuals’ ability to adjust. |
| Date: | 2026–05–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260020 |
| By: | Zanoni, Wladimir; López, Rodrigo; Rangel, Marcos |
| Abstract: | When governments face fiscal stress, they frequently manage consolidation by delaying cash payments on legally incurred obligations rather than cutting explicit appropriations. This "execution wedge" reduces the real resources available for public production while leaving formal appropriations unchanged. We identify the causal effect of this adjustment margin using monthly administrative data from Ecuadors public health system, exploiting institutional features that make the cash execution pipeline observable and its frictions plausibly exogenous. A one-standard-deviation increase in the execution wedge reduces hospital discharges by 19.9 percent and increases the conditional inpatient mortality rate after 48 hours by 59 percent. Conversely, mortality within 48 hours an indicator of patient severity at arrival, is unaffected. These findings demonstrate that payment timing operates as an active fiscal policy variable with first-order welfare costs that are unmeasured in standard fiscal policy analysis. |
| Keywords: | Health service delivery;State capacity;Budget execution |
| JEL: | H51 H61 O23 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14648 |
| By: | Zhou, Hongyu; Garg, Prashant; Fetzer, Thiemo |
| Abstract: | We examine whether research systems reallocate scientific effort as health needs change. We assemble a global disease--location panel for 204 countries and territories (1990--2021) by linking disease-specific publication output to disease burden in the same place and year. Using large language models, we extract diseases from article text, map them into a standardized disease classification, and classify research funders by type. Empirically, we estimate how publication output co-moves with disease burden within countries and diseases over time, and we use event-study difference-in-differences designs that exploit plausibly exogenous variation from the timing of outbreak alerts. We find that responsiveness to endemic burden has increased over time but remains highly uneven across locations; outbreak alerts trigger rapid, statistically significant research surges that have strengthened in recent years; and funding composition is strongly associated with adjustment dynamics, with philanthropic and government-supported research contributing disproportionately to responsiveness growth in lower-income settings. |
| JEL: | I18 O31 O32 O33 C55 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21230 |
| By: | Gobbi, Paula Eugenia; Hannusch, Anne; Rossi, Pauline |
| Abstract: | Much of the observed cross-country variation in fertility aligns with the predictions of classic theories of the fertility transition: countries with higher levels of human capital, higher GDP per capita, or lower mortality rates tend to exhibit lower fertility. However, when examining changes within countries over the past 60 years, larger fertility declines are only weakly associated with greater improvements in human capital, per capita GDP, or survival rates. To understand why, we focus on the role of family institutions, particularly marriage and inheritance customs. We argue that, together with the diffusion of cultural norms, they help explain variations in the timing, speed and magnitude of the fertility decline. We propose a stylized model integrating economic, health, institutional and cultural factors to study how these factors interact to shape fertility transition paths. We find that family institutions can mediate the effect of economic development by constraining fertility responses. |
| Keywords: | Fertility transition; Culture |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20827 |
| By: | Coimbra, Bruno Messina; Sijbrandij, Marit; Engelhard, Iris; Neeleman, Rutger Chris; Grandfield, Elizabeth M. (Utrecht University); Jalsovec, Elena; van der Kuil, Timo (Utrecht University); Stoel, Lauke; Alderfer, Melissa; Armour, Cherie |
| Abstract: | This systematic review, meta-analysis and meta-regression evaluates twenty years of literature on data-driven identification of common PTSD symptom trajectories following potentially traumatic events. Traditional, machine learning- and large language model–assisted systematic search approaches were combined to identify eligible articles applying statistical Growth Mixture Modeling to longitudinally assessed PTSD symptom severity. Ninety-nine studies representing 113 independent samples and 215, 136 participants from 21 countries were included. We identified five prototypical PTSD symptom trajectories that commonly occurred across samples. We determined pooled relative trajectory prevalence estimates across samples observing these specific trajectories with the low symptoms trajectory being the most and the increasing symptoms trajectory the least prevalent. Using meta-regression, various socio-demographic, exposure-related and methodological moderators of sample-level relative trajectory prevalences were identified. Our findings provide empirical support and further refinements of leading theoretical PTSD conceptualizations. Furthermore, the obtained relative prevalence estimates and sample-level moderators may inform population-tailored trauma-related mental health care. |
| Date: | 2026–07–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:fkjb2_v3 |
| By: | Wolfgang Maennig (Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg); Niklas Rohde (Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg) |
| Abstract: | We provide long-run regional evidence on how local support for Brexit is associated with post-referendum life satisfaction. Covering 348 UK local authorities from 2011 to 2022, we find that after the 2016 referendum higher district-level Leave vote shares are associated with relative increases in life satisfaction. These results are robust across alternative treatment definitions, dynamic specifications, regional sensitivity checks and controls for the COVID-19 pandemic. Additional analyses suggest that the association emerges immediately after the referendum, is stronger in structurally vulnerable districts, and is weaker in areas with stronger petition-based demand for reversing Brexit. The findings may be associated with a regional political “winner effect†and/or may reflect alignment between regional political preferences and the referendum outcome. |
| Keywords: | Subjective Well-being, Brexit, Referendum, Regional Science |
| JEL: | D72 I31 I38 |
| Date: | 2026–07–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hce:wpaper:084 |
| By: | Corin Blanc |
| Abstract: | In response to rising urban air pollution, European cities have adopted Low Emission Zones (LEZs), restricting the most polluting vehicles. While effective in improving air quality, these policies remain controversial due to concerns over fairness and acceptability. This paper examines the impact of London’s 2021 and 2023 Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) expansions on Subjective Well-Being (SWB). Using panel data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study and a staggered difference-in-differences design with individual and year fixed effects, we compare changes in life satisfaction among residents inside and outside the affected areas. We find that the 2021 expansion led to a decline in life satisfaction by approximately 0.4 points. We explore the mechanisms driving this decline and find that the well-being loss is mediated by car dependency and transport mode availability. While the policy increased reliance on public transport, we show that a better accessibility to public transport mitigates the decline in life satisfaction among London residents. Furthermore, we show that the well-being costs of the policy are regressive, disproportionately affecting lower-income households. These findings suggest that LEZs can generate short-term and unequal well-being costs despite achieving modest behavioural change, highlighting the need for complementary measures to enhance social acceptability. |
| Keywords: | Low Emission Zones (LEZs), Air pollution, Environmental policy, Subjective well-being, Life satisfaction, Staggered Difference-in-differences, Social acceptability |
| JEL: | I31 Q52 H23 R48 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2026-14 |
| By: | Frattini, Tommaso; d'Adda, Giovanna; Ferro, Simone; Romarri, Alessio |
| Abstract: | Using large-scale high-granularity data from a food delivery platform and granular pollution and weather information, we study how PM 2.5 fluctuations affect riders' absenteeism, productivity, and accidents. Exploiting exogenous pollution variation from inverse boundary layer height, we find that higher pollution increases absenteeism for all workers and raises delivery times and accident rates only among (e-)bike riders, who must exert physical effort while working. Affected workers compensate productivity losses by working longer hours. Monetary incentives mitigate the effects on absenteeism but do not offset the decline in productivity and appear to exacerbate accident risk. |
| Keywords: | Absenteeism |
| JEL: | H4 J28 Q52 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20884 |
| By: | Gautam Gowrisankaran; Kelli R. Marquardt; Robert Town |
| Abstract: | We examine the importance of hospital quality, patient selection, and congestion in affecting equilibrium health outcomes, using Covid-19 pandemic data. Our main outcome is mortality, controlling for unobserved selection with distance instruments. Intensive care unit strain increased hospital mortality: without congestion, deaths would fall 9.6%. Patients value hospitals with high baseline quality, but their choices did not reflect capacity strain information. Equilibrium counterfactuals show that if patients were informed about capacity strain and believed quality signals were more precise, deaths would drop 3.8%. However, using more precise information but not accounting for congestion would cause Covid-19 deaths to rise 3.8%. |
| JEL: | D8 I11 L15 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35426 |
| By: | Laszlo Goerke; Markus M. Grabka; Viola Hilbert; Yue Huang |
| Abstract: | We investigate the role of industrial relations for working from home during and after the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) for the years 2020 to 2023 and a special COVID sample (SOEP-CoV) for 2020 and 2021, we examine how collective bargaining and plant-level co-determination are associated with the incidence and frequency of working from home. Controlling for worker, firm, occupation, and industry characteristics, we find that employees covered by a collective bargaining agreement are less likely to work from home and do so less frequently than uncovered employees. In contrast, the incidence and frequency of working from home are positively associated with the presence of a works council. |
| Keywords: | co-determination, collective bargaining, COVID-19, industrial relations, SOEP, working from home |
| JEL: | J52 J53 J81 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp1241 |
| By: | Crosta, Tommaso; Karlan, Dean; Ong, Finley; Ruschenpohler, Julius; Udry, Christopher |
| Abstract: | We use Bayesian meta-analysis methods to estimate the impact of unconditional cash transfers (UCTs). Aggregating evidence from 115 studies of 72 UCT programs in middle and low income countries, we find strong and positive average treatment effects on ten of thirteen outcomes: monthly household total and food consumption, monthly income, labor supply, school enrollment, food security, psychological well-being, total assets, financial assets, and children height-for-age. We examine seven specific theoretical and policy hypotheses, such as presence of savings frictions, dynamic effects, curvature of marginal returns, targeting effects, “nudge†effects, labor supply elasticity and related “dependency†theories, and contextual heterogeneity. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21175 |
| By: | Jeffrey Clemens; Helena Detering; Anwita Mahajan |
| Abstract: | The implementation and unwinding of the FFCRA's continuous coverage requirement generated historically large changes in Medicaid enrollment during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a combination of descriptive and causal analyses, we examine the substantial cross-state differences in these changes, which remain little understood. We find that policies designed to ease unwinding frictions, as well as federal fiscal assistance to states, have little predictive power, suggesting limited roles for administrative design or liquidity constraints. Political preferences have modest predictive power during the unwinding period. Pandemic-era Medicaid expansions and more generous baseline eligibility thresholds are strongly associated with larger net enrollment gains. |
| JEL: | H72 H75 I13 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35399 |