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on Health Economics |
| By: | Elena Capatina; Michael P. Keane |
| Abstract: | We specify and calibrate a life-cycle model of labor supply and savings incorporating health shocks and medical treatment decisions. Our model features endogenous wage formation via human capital accumulation, employer-sponsored health insurance, and means-tested social insurance. We use the model to study the effects of health shocks on health, labor supply and earnings, and to assess how health shocks contribute to earnings inequality. We also simulate provision of public insurance to agents who lack employer-sponsored insurance. The public insurance program substantially increases medical usage by the uninsured, leading to improved health and life expectancy, which generates higher Social Security costs. But the program also creates positive labor supply incentives, and substantially reduces costs of social insurance, Medicaid and free care. On balance the net program cost is modest, and all agents in the model are ex ante better off in a balanced budget simulation. In contrast, improving access to Medicaid has perverse labor supply effects, does little to improve health, and makes almost all agents worse off in a balanced budget scenario. |
| Keywords: | Income risk; Health insurance; Welfare; Health; Earnings inequality; Human capital; Precautionary saving; Health shocks |
| JEL: | E21 I31 D91 I14 |
| Date: | 2023–11–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmoi:97509&r=hea |
| By: | Johannes Haushofer; Daniel Salicath |
| Abstract: | In recent years, the psychological causes and consequences of poverty have received renewed attention from scientists and policymakers. In this review, we summarize new developments in this literature. First, we discuss advances in our understanding of the relationship between income and psychological well-being. There is a robust positive relationship between the two, both within and across countries, and in correlational and causal analyses. Second, we summarize recent work on the impact of “scarcity” and stress on economic preferences and decision-making. Our view of this literature is that the evidence is relatively weak. Third, we summarize evidence on the impact of psychological interventions on economic outcomes. Light-touch psychological interventions, such as videos that aim to raise aspirations, have shown some promise in encouraging investment and improving economic well-being. Similarly, psychotherapy and pharmacological mental health treatments have positive effects on economic outcomes. Relative to the effects of cash transfers, these impacts are small in absolute terms and large in per-dollar terms. We conclude by discussing whether a psychological poverty trap is plausible. |
| JEL: | D91 O12 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31977&r=hea |
| By: | Axel H. Börsch-Supan; Courtney Coile |
| Abstract: | The International Social Security (ISS) project compares the experiences of a dozen developed countries to study Social Security Programs and Retirement Around the World. The project was launched in the mid 1990s and was motivated by decades of decline in the labor force participation rate of older men. The first phases of the project documented that social security program provisions can create powerful incentives for retirement that are strongly correlated with the labor force behavior of older workers. Since then, the dramatic decline in men’s labor force participation has been replaced by sharply rising participation rates. Older women’s participation has increased dramatically as well. This tenth phase of the International Social Security (ISS) Project is the third step in explaining rising participation at older ages. The first step investigated changes in health and education as potential causes and showed that they could not account for the extent of changes in labor force participation. As a second step, we documented that countries have undertaken numerous reforms of their social security programs, disability programs, and other public benefit programs available to older workers. We found that these reforms substantially reduced the implicit tax on work at older ages and that stronger financial incentives to work were positively correlated with labor force participation at older ages. In this volume, the third step of our analysis, we exploit the time-series and cross-national variation in the timing and extent of reforms of retirement incentives and employ micro-econometric methods in order to study whether the correlation between financial incentives and work at older ages is causal. |
| JEL: | J14 J26 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31979&r=hea |
| By: | Jason Fletcher; Hamid Noghanibehambari |
| Abstract: | Several strands of research document the life-cycle impacts of lead exposure during the critical period of children’s development. Yet little is known about long-run effects of lead exposure during early-life on old-age mortality outcomes. This study exploits the staggered installation of water systems across 761 cities in the US over the first decades of the 20th century combined with cross-city differences in materials used in water pipelines to identify lead and non-lead cities. An event-study analysis suggests that the impacts are more concentrated on children exposed during in-utero up to age 10. The results of difference-in-difference analysis suggests an intent-to-treat effect of 2.7 months reduction in old-age longevity for fully exposed cohorts. A heterogeneity analysis reveals effects that are 3.5 and 2 times larger among the nonwhite subpopulation and low socioeconomic status families, respectively. We also find reductions in education and socioeconomic standing during early adulthood as candidate mechanism. Finally, we employ WWII enlistment data and observe reductions in height-for-age among lead-exposed cohorts. |
| JEL: | I1 I18 J1 N0 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31957&r=hea |
| By: | Analisa Packham; David Slusky |
| Abstract: | We estimate the causal impact of access to means-tested public health insurance coverage (Medicaid) on health outcomes and recidivism for those recently released from incarceration. To do so, we leverage a policy change in South Carolina that allowed simplified Medicaid re-enrollment for previously incarcerated eligible individuals. Using linked administrative data on criminal convictions and health insurance claims, we find that reducing barriers in access to Medicaid for vulnerable populations increases enrollment and utilization of health care services. However, we do not find that this improved health care insurance access reduces 1-year or 3-year recidivism, suggesting that effectiveness of such policies is context dependent. |
| JEL: | I18 I38 K42 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31971&r=hea |
| By: | Daniel S. Grossman; Umair Khalil; Laura Panza |
| Abstract: | We study the intergenerational health consequences of forced displacement and incarceration of Japanese Americans in the US during WWII. Incarcerated mothers had babies who were less healthy at birth. This decrease in health represents a shift in the entire birthweight distribution due to exposure to prison camps. Imprisoned individuals were less likely to have children with fathers of other ethnic groups but were more likely to receive prenatal care, invest in education, and participate in the labor market. To the extent human capital effects mitigate the full negative effects of incarceration on intergenerational health, our results are a lower bound. |
| JEL: | I12 I14 I18 N32 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31992&r=hea |
| By: | Jena, Anupam B. (NBER); Slusky, David (University of Kansas); Springer, Lilly (University of Kansas) |
| Abstract: | Training to become a physician involves long work hours that can be physically demanding, particularly for surgeons. Are birth outcomes of physician mothers affected as a result? Using Texas birth data from 2007-2014, we compared birth outcomes between physicians and another highly educated group, lawyers, and between surgeons and non-surgeon physicians. Further, using a difference-in-differences framework, we examine whether the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education 2011 duty hour reform, which lowered trainee work hours, impacted the birth outcomes of babies born to physicians compared with lawyers. We find that physicians have lower birth weights and shorter pregnancies than lawyers with the results driven by physicians in surgical specialties. However, the duty hour reform appears to not have impacted birth outcomes. Thus, we find that physicians tend to have worse birth outcomes than lawyers and, in this case, the work reform did little to address the difference. |
| Keywords: | physicians, surgeons, birth outcomes, birthweight, pregnancy length, duty hour reform |
| JEL: | I12 J13 J44 K32 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16655&r=hea |
| By: | Graham, Francis W. (Monash University); de New, Sonja C. (Monash University); Nielsen, Suzanne (Monash University); Petrie, Dennis (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | After the introduction of abuse-deterrent OxyContin in 2010, states with widespread extramedical OxyContin use experienced steep increases in heroin deaths, implying substitution from OxyContin to heroin. Leveraging cross-state variation in initial OxyContin utilization, we show the OxyContin reformulation also induced substitution to a similar prescription opioid product, Opana ER. States with high Opana ER utilization after the OxyContin reformulation experienced continued growth in prescription opioid deaths, and after Opana ER was reformulated 18 months later, an additional wave of substitution to heroin previously solely attributed to OxyContin. Our results highlight underappreciated substitution pathways throughout these pivotal years of the epidemic. |
| Keywords: | opioids, opioid epidemic, OxyContin, Opana ER, heroin |
| JEL: | I12 I18 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16653&r=hea |
| By: | Effrosyni Adamopoulou (ZEW); Jeremy Greenwood (University of Pennsylvania); Nezih Guner (Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros (CEMFI)); Karen A. Kopecky (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) |
| Abstract: | The role of friends in the US opioid epidemic is examined. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health (Add Health), adults aged 25-34 and their high school best friends are focused on. An instrumental variable technique is employed to estimate peer effects in opioid misuse. Severe injuries in the previous year are used as an instrument for opioid misuse in order to estimate the causal impact of someone misusing opioids on the probability that their best friends also misuse. The estimated peer effects are significant: Having a best friend with a reported serious injury in the previous year increases the probability of own opioid misuse by around 7 percentage points in a population where 17 percent ever misuses opioids. The effect is driven by individuals without a college degree and those who live in the same county as their best friends. |
| Keywords: | opioid, friends, instrumental variables, Add Health, severe injuries, peer-group effects |
| JEL: | C26 D10 I12 J11 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eag:rereps:38&r=hea |
| By: | Cynthia Chen; Julian Lim; Abhijit Visaria; Angelique Chan |
| Abstract: | Societal aging is arguably one of our most critical demographic challenges, and Singapore is aging at a much faster rate compared to other countries. Population aging could negatively affect older adults, contribute to an increase in healthcare expenditure and increase caregivers' financial and emotional burden. This chapter provides an overview of the well-being and health and social care needs of older adults in Singapore. Formulating social and public policies that enhance the health span, extend productive life years, support caregivers, and improve community health and social care services are crucial elements to help older adults age successfully. We analyze how aging affects health, financial security, and well-being, exploring correlations between disability levels and these factors. We then discuss policies the Singapore government has implemented or will implement to help older adults age successfully. Lastly, we provide an overview of formal and informal care provided in Singapore, including assessing the overall cost of LTC in Singapore. |
| JEL: | I1 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31958&r=hea |
| By: | Tamás Hajdu (Centre for Economic and Regional Studies); Gábor Kertesi (Centre for Economic and Regional Studies); Bence Szabó (Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Corvinus University of Budapest) |
| Abstract: | This study uses linked administrative data on live births, hospital stays, and census records for children born in Hungary between 2006 and 2011 to examine the relationship between poor housing quality and the health of newborns and children aged 1-2 years. We show that poor housing quality, defined as lack of access to basic sanitation and exposure to polluting heating, is not a negligible problem even in a high-income EU country like Hungary. This is particularly the case for disadvantaged children, 20-25% of whom live in extremely poorquality homes. Next, we provide evidence that poor housing quality is strongly associated with lower health at birth and a higher number of days spent in inpatient care at the age of 1-2 years. These results indicate that lack of access to basic sanitation, hygiene, and nonpolluting heating and their health impacts cannot be considered as the exclusive problem for low- and middle-income countries. In high-income countries, there is also a need for public policy programs that identify those affected by poor housing quality and offer them potential solutions to reduce the adverse effects on their health. |
| Keywords: | Keywords: health at birth, early childhood health, housing quality, basic sanitation, indoor air pollution |
| JEL: | I10 I14 J13 Q53 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:2328&r=hea |
| By: | Eren Aydin (University of Hamburg); Kathleen Kürschner Rauck (University of St.Gallen; Swiss Finance Institute) |
| Abstract: | We study the short-term effects of the 9-Euro-Ticket, a major German public transport subsidization program, on particulate matter (PM). Using hourly PM readings from pollution monitoring stations throughout Germany, provided by the German Federal Environmental Agency, we find declines in PM₁₀ and PM₂.₅ at core traffic stations, displaying differential effects of -0.44 µg/m³ and -0.41 µg/m³ relative to less frequented locations, which corresponds to approximately 2.8 % and 8.5 % of the current limit guidelines that the WHO suggests to mitigate adverse effects on human health. Pollution reductions materialize in regions with above-average public-transportation accessibility, are most pronounced during peak travel times on weekdays and in regions with above-average population density and larger car fleets, suggesting reductions in car usage sign responsible for our findings. This notion is supported by plausibility tests that employ NO₂ and SO₂ as outcomes. These insights into consequences of ticket-fare subsidization for air quality and potential causal pathways are of relevance for policymakers involved in transportation (infrastructure) planning to accommodate such directly incentivizing policy tools in the future. |
| Keywords: | Public transport subsidy, Air pollution, 9-Euro-Ticket, Germany |
| JEL: | R48 R41 Q53 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp23109&r=hea |
| By: | Ruixue Jia; Xiao Ma; Jianan Yang; Yiran Zhang |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how enhanced regulation can promote innovation, focusing on the impacts of a significant regulatory reform in China's pharmaceutical sector implemented in 2015. Inspired by regulatory practices in the U.S., the reform aimed to address application backlogs and reduce administrative waiting time for new drug development. Using data at the drug and firm levels during 2012--2021, we make three main findings: (1) drug categories experiencing improved approval times witnessed a surge in investigational new drug applications and related clinical trials; (2) despite little improvement in innovativeness (measured by novel targets unexplored by U.S. counterparts) within drug categories, the reform led to changes in firm composition, attracting innovative new firms and boosting overall drug innovativeness; and (3) the market recognized the improvement in drug innovation, as reflected in stock price adjustments post new drug registrations after the reform. Our findings demonstrate that regulatory barriers can hinder the entry of innovative firms and suggest that latecomers could boost their innovation potential by adopting specific, effective regulatory practices from frontier countries. |
| JEL: | D22 I15 I18 O31 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31976&r=hea |
| By: | Sileci, Lorenzo |
| Abstract: | I assess the air quality and environmental equity impacts of the 2008 carbon tax in British Columbia. Using high-resolution data and a synthetic difference-in-differences strategy, I find that the carbon tax has reduced PM2.5 emissions by 5.2-10.9%. This result is heterogeneously distributed, with larger reductions in areas with lower baseline pollution, lower population density, lower material deprivation, and higher income. While all areas experience substantial positive co-benefits in terms of reduced air pollution hazard rates, quantified at $198 per capita, my results imply a widening of the pre-existing environmental justice gaps. This dynamic represents an additional dimension of carbon tax regressiveness. |
| Keywords: | carbon tax; air quality; PM2.5; co-benefits; environmental justice; air pollution; British Columbia; Canada; climate policy; health impacts; social impacts |
| JEL: | Q58 Q53 H23 |
| Date: | 2023–12–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121047&r=hea |
| By: | Herrera-Almanza, Catalina; McCarthey, Aine Seitz |
| Abstract: | Fertility decline in rural sub-Saharan Africa has lagged behind other developing countries. The gap in fertility preferences between men and women plays a pivotal role in determining household fertility and reproductive health outcomes, with men desiring more children and exerting more significant influence in household decision-making. This disparity becomes more pronounced in rural regions where patrilineal norms, especially those associated with land inheritance, remain prevalent. We estimate the effect of an informational family planning intervention on male and female fertility preferences in rural Tanzania. The experiment consisted of randomizing household consultations on modern contraception, with sessions conducted either jointly for husbands and wives or exclusively for wives in private. Surprisingly, husbands who engaged in joint consultations increased their desired additional number of children, and their wives mirrored this increase in fertility preferences. In contrast, women in private consultations reduced their additional desired number of children while their husbands’ preferences remained unchanged. We provide suggestive evidence that the unintended effects on fertility preferences might be motivated by land inheritance expectations, as our results are driven by households with firstborn daughters (rather than sons). |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Farm Management, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2023–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:assa24:339077&r=hea |
| By: | Andrew J. Fieldhouse; Karel Mertens |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a narrative analysis of postwar federal appropriations for the research and development (R&D) activities of the Department of Defense, Department of Energy, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Institutes of Health and National Science Foundation—five agencies that consistently account for the vast majority of federal outlays for all types of R&D. We build a novel dataset quantifying the enacted full-year appropriations for all budgetary accounts funding R&D activities at these five agencies over fiscal years 1947-2019. We use this dataset to isolate a subset of 218 “significant” changes in real appropriations for each agency, and we analyze numerous primary and secondary sources to understand the context and motivation. Based on these sources, we classify each significant change in federal R&D appropriations as either “endogenous” or “exogenous” to short-run macroeconomic developments. The exogenous changes in R&D appropriations are intended as instrumental variables for studying the causal effects of government R&D in appropriately specified empirical models. |
| Keywords: | narrative analysis; government; R&D; public investments; fiscal policy |
| JEL: | E62 H54 O38 |
| Date: | 2023–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:97527&r=hea |
| By: | Lumbwe Chola (Health Management and Health Economics Department, University of Oslo); Ryan McBain (Division of Health Care Delivery, RAND Corporation); Y-Ling Chi (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | Cost information is essential for priority setting and optimized resource allocation in the healthcare sector, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) where resource constraints and opportunity costs are significant. In recent years, a costing approach labelled time-driven activity-based costing (TDABC) has gained prominence, as a means for more closely estimating unit costs. TDABC is a process-based micro-costing methodology that adopts a patient perspective to identify resources that are allocated over the course of service provision, mapping each step of a patient journey. Unlike other activity-based costing methods, TDABC includes the recording of the amount of time that resources are utilized for each activity. The manuscript is developed as a step-by-step guide for researchers, students and policy makers intending to undertake TDABC. While there are many academic resources explaining the theory and steps to conduct TDABC, in this paper, we provide easily accessible descriptions of methods for collecting data, tools that can be adapted to diverse research questions and settings, as well as practical data collection “tips” we learned from applying approaches on the ground. |
| Date: | 2022–10–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:271&r=hea |
| By: | Julia Baumann (Wirtschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung); Anastasia Danilov (HU Berlin); Olga Stavrova (Universität Lübeck) |
| Abstract: | This study explores the role of trait self-control in individuals’ changes in performance and well-being when working from home (WFH). In a three-wave longitudinal study with UK workers in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, we find that low self-control workers experienced a significant positive adjustment to WFH over time: The number of reported work distractions decreased, and self-assessed performance increased over the period of four months. In contrast, high self-control individuals did not show a similar upward trajectory. Despite the positive adjustment of low self-control individuals over time, on average, self-control was still positively associated with performance and negatively associated with work distractions. However, trait self-control was not consistently associated with changes in well-being. These findings provide a more nuanced view on trait self-control, suggesting that low self-control individuals can improve initial performance over time when working from home. |
| Keywords: | self-control; working from home; productivity; |
| Date: | 2023–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:486&r=hea |
| By: | Rosés, Joan R.; Domènech, Jordi; Basco, Sergi |
| Abstract: | Despite being one of the deadliest viruses in history, there is limited information on the socioeconomic factors that affected mortality rates during the Great Influenza Pandemic. In this study, we use occupation-province level data to investigate the relationship between influenza excess mortality rates and occupation-related status in Spain. We obtain three main results. Firstly, individuals in low-income occupations experienced the highest excess mortality, pointing to a notable income gradient. Secondly, professions that involved more social interaction were associated with a higher excess of mortality, regardless of income. Finally, we observe a substantial rural mortality penalty, even after controlling for income-related occupational groups. Based on this evidence, it seems that the high number of deaths was caused by not self-isolating. Some individuals did not quarantine themselves because they could not afford to miss work. In rural areas, home confinement was likely more limited because their inhabitants did not have immediate access to information about the pandemic or fully understand its impact due to their limited experience handling influenza outbreaks. |
| Keywords: | pandemics; health inequality; mortality inequities; urban penalty; Elsevier deal |
| JEL: | N34 J10 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:120932&r=hea |
| By: | Victoria Y. Fan (Center for Global Development); Eleni Smitham (Center for Global Development); Lydia Regan (Center for Global Development); Pratibha Gautam (Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health); Ole Norheim (University of Bergen and Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health); Javier Guzman (Center for Global Development); Amanda Glassman (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | Efforts in pandemic preparedness can be strategically guided by understanding the potential costs and benefits of interventions for surveillance, which we call the “best buys” of surveillance. This policy paper examines the state of knowledge on investing in the “best buys” of surveillance for pandemic preparedness and specifically for respiratory infections. We focus on respiratory infections because of their potential for global spread as well as the World Health Organization (WHO)’s Preparedness and Resilience for Emerging Threats (PRET) initiative initial focus on pandemics of respiratory pathogens. We conduct a rapid literature review to assess the state of knowledge on the costs and benefits of investing in four selected types of surveillance for respiratory infections (laboratory networks, sentinel surveillance, notifiable disease surveillance, and health facility event-based surveillance) considered as “core” surveillance by the WHO’s Mosaic Framework (which listed a total of ten types of surveillance). We discussed early results with an expert panel during a CGD roundtable discussion. Overall, cost data on surveillance programs remains very limited. Of the four types of surveillance examined, there are more studies reporting costs for sentinel surveillance than other types of surveillance. Studies did not standardize measures of effectiveness of surveillance, making comparisons across surveillance types challenging. The effectiveness of investments is not easily assessed before a pandemic, highlighting the need for rigorous, independent evaluation of the value and impact of preparedness investments (including for surveillance) on pandemic response. In order to inform future pandemic preparedness and response efforts, more knowledge is needed on the costs and effectiveness of surveillance of respiratory infections and related diseases. |
| Date: | 2023–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:298&r=hea |
| By: | Rahlff, Helen (University of Hagen); Rinne, Ulf (IZA); Sonnabend, Hendrik (Fern Universität Hagen) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the prevalence of bullying in Germany during COVID-19, both as a real-life phenomenon (in-person bullying, or in our context: school bullying) and via social media and electronic communication tools (cyberbullying). Using Google Trends data from 2013 to 2022 and exploiting the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment when schools switched to distance learning, we document stark changes in the prevalence of (cyber)bullying in Germany: Our results indicate that during school years affected by COVID-19, online searches for school bullying decreased by about 25 percent, while online searches for cyberbullying increased by about 48 percent during the same periods. |
| Keywords: | school bullying, cyberbullying, Google Trends |
| JEL: | H75 I12 I21 I28 I31 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16650&r=hea |
| By: | Aparajithan Venkateswaran; Jishnu Das; Tyler H. McCormick |
| Abstract: | Contact tracing is one of the most important tools for preventing the spread of infectious diseases, but as the experience of COVID-19 showed, it is also next-to-impossible to implement when the disease is spreading rapidly. We show how to substantially improve the efficiency of contact tracing by combining standard microeconomic tools that measure heterogeneity in how infectious a sick person is with ideas from machine learning about sequential optimization. Our contributions are twofold. First, we incorporate heterogeneity in individual infectiousness in a multi-armed bandit to establish optimal algorithms. At the heart of this strategy is a focus on learning. In the typical conceptualization of contact tracing, contacts of an infected person are tested to find more infections. Under a learning-first framework, however, contacts of infected persons are tested to ascertain whether the infected person is likely to be a "high infector" and to find additional infections only if it is likely to be highly fruitful. Second, we demonstrate using three administrative contact tracing datasets from India and Pakistan during COVID-19 that this strategy improves efficiency. Using our algorithm, we find 80% of infections with just 40% of contacts while current approaches test twice as many contacts to identify the same number of infections. We further show that a simple strategy that can be easily implemented in the field performs at nearly optimal levels, allowing for, what we call, feasible contact tracing. These results are immediately transferable to contact tracing in any epidemic. |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2312.05718&r=hea |