nep-hea New Economics Papers
on Health Economics
Issue of 2023‒10‒16
27 papers chosen by
Nicolas R. Ziebarth, Cornell University

  1. The labor market effects of disability benefit loss By Bíró, Anikó; Hornok, Cecília; Krekó, Judit; Prinz, Daniel; Scharle, Ágota
  2. Childhood Health Shocks and the Intergenerational Transmission of Inequality By Eriksen, Tine Louise Mundbjerg; Gaulke, Amanda; Svensson, Jannet; Skipper, Niels; Thingholm, Peter Rønø
  3. The Relative Value of Suicide Prevention in Health Care Priority Setting By Andrén, Daniela; Laitila, Thomas; Ryen, Linda; Vimefall, Elin
  4. Retirement Consumption and Pension Design By Jonas Kolsrud; Camille Landais; Daniel Reck; Johannes Spinnewijn
  5. Diagnostic Uncertainty and Insurance Coverage in Credence Goods Markets By Loukas Balafoutas; Helena Fornwagner; Rudolf Kerschbamer; Matthias Sutter; Maryna Tverdostup
  6. Treatment for Mental Health and Substance Use: Spillovers to Police Safety By Monica Deza
  7. Implications of the Decline in LGBT Rights for Population Mental Health: Evidence from Polish “LGBT-free zones” By Chad Meyerhoefer; Bingjin Xue; Anna Poznańska
  8. Utility and Happiness By Miles S. Kimball; Robert J. Willis
  9. Mandatory helmet use and the severity of motorcycle accidents: no brainer? By Blanco, Magdalena; Cabrera, José María; Carozzi, Felipe; Cid, Alejandro
  10. Facilities for optimising and designing multi-arm multi-stage (MAMS) randomised controlled trials with binary outcomes By Babak Choodari-Oskooei; Daniel J. Bratton; Mahesh KB Parmar
  11. Progress on implementing and using electronic health record systems: Developments in OECD countries as of 2021 By Luke Slawomirski; Luca Lindner; Katherine de Bienassis; Philip Haywood; Tiago Cravo Oliveira Hashiguchi; Melanie Steentjes; Jillian Oderkirk
  12. Beyond High-Income Countries: Low Numeracy Is Associated with Older Adult Age around the World By Wändi Bruine de Bruin; Aulona Ulqinaku; Jimena Llopis; Matteo Santangelo Ravà
  13. Do PCI Facility Openings Differentially Affect AMI Patients by Individual Race and Community Segregation? By Renee Y. Hsia; Yu-Chu Shen
  14. Designing the report card content for healthcare payment reduction By Takahara, Tsuyoshi; Kanda, Yutaka
  15. A (time) series of unfortunate events: structural change, globalization, and the rise of occupational injuries By A.V. Chari
  16. Time Preferences and Food Choice By Andy Brownback; Alex Imas; Michael A. Kuhn
  17. Temperature exposure and sleep duration: evidence from time use surveys By Tamás Hajdu
  18. Conditional cash lotteries increase COVID-19 vaccination rates By Barber, Andrew; West, Jeremy
  19. Mobility restrictions and alcohol use during lockdown: "a still and dry pandemic for the many"? By Celidoni, Martina; Costa-Font, Joan; Salmasi, Luca
  20. School reopenings, COVID-19, and employment By Koppa, Vijetha; West, Jeremy
  21. Strategic Ignorance and Perceived Control By Balietti, Anca; Budjan, Angelika; Eymess, Tillmann; Soldà, Alice
  22. Correcting the reproduction number for time-varying tests: A proposal and an application to COVID-19 in France By Christelle Baunez; Mickaël Degoulet; Stéphane Luchini; Matteo L Pintus; Patrick A Pintus; Miriam Teschl
  23. COVID-19 Has Strengthened the Relationship Between Alcohol Consumption and Domestic Violence By Monica Deza; Aaron Chalfin; Shooshan Danagoulian
  24. Stated preferences outperform elicited preferences for predicting reported compliance with Covid-19 prophylactic measures By Phu Nguyen-Van; Thierry Blayac; Dimitri Dubois; Sebastien Duchene; Bruno Ventelou; Marc Willinger
  25. The Impacts of Covid-19 on Racial Inequality in Business Earnings By Robert Fairlie; Robert W. Fairlie
  26. Teen Social Interactions and Well-Being during the COVID-19 Pandemic By Kalenkoski, Charlene M.; Pabilonia, Sabrina Wulff
  27. Underreporting Child Maltreatment during the Pandemic: Evidence from Colorado By Alexa Prettyman

  1. By: Bíró, Anikó; Hornok, Cecília; Krekó, Judit; Prinz, Daniel; Scharle, Ágota
    Abstract: Disability benefits are costly and tend to reduce labor supply. While spending can be contained by careful targeting, correcting past flaws in eligibility rules or assessment procedures may entail welfare costs. We study a major reform in Hungary that reassessed the health and working capacity of a large share of beneficiaries. Leveraging age and health cutoffs in the reassessment, we estimate employment responses to loss or reduction of benefits. We find that among those who left disability insurance due to the reform 58% were employed in the primary labor market, 6% participated in public works and 36% were out of work without benefits in the post-reform period. The consequences of leaving disability insurance sharply differed by pre-reform employment status. 81% of beneficiaries who had some employment in the pre-reform year worked, while only 33% of those without pre-reform employment did. The gains of the reform in activating beneficiaries were small and strongly driven by pre-reform employment status. This points to the importance of combining financial incentives with broader labor market programs that increase employability.
    Keywords: disability insurance, benefit reduction, employment
    JEL: H55 J14
    Date: 2023
  2. By: Eriksen, Tine Louise Mundbjerg (VIVE - The Danish Centre for Social Science Research); Gaulke, Amanda (Kansas State University); Svensson, Jannet (Copenhagen University Hospital); Skipper, Niels (Aarhus University); Thingholm, Peter Rønø (Aarhus University)
    Abstract: We examine the role of health shocks in childhood and parental background in transmitting intergenerational inequality. We use Danish administrative registry data (a setting with universal access to health care) and the quasi-random onset of Type 1 Diabetes in childhood to document substantial penalties in adult employment and labor market income at age 30. We document wide disparities in treatment effects and show that high-socioeconomic parents mitigate the adverse impacts of the health shock. This gradient is partly driven by differential impacts on health and human capital across the socioeconomic distribution. Maternal educational attainment matters for adoption of new and more advanced treatment regimens.
    Keywords: intergenerational transmission of inequality, childhood health shocks, labor market outcomes
    JEL: I12 I14 I24
    Date: 2023–09
  3. By: Andrén, Daniela (Örebro University School of Business); Laitila, Thomas (Örebro University School of Business); Ryen, Linda (University Health Care Research Center, Faculty of Medicine and Health); Vimefall, Elin (Örebro University School of Business)
    Abstract: This article investigates how the Swedish population values a reduction in the number of suicides in relation to other life-saving interventions within the health care sector. An online discrete choice experiment was conducted with a sample of 1000 Swedish members of the web panel Userneeds to elicit the relative importance placed on reducing the number of suicides in comparison to deaths due to pancreatic cancer, breast cancer, and acute heart attack. The choice set consisted of three attributes: number of lives saved, cause of death, and age group affected. We found that respondents valued saving lives by suicide prevention lower than saving lives from pancreatic cancer, breast cancer, or acute heart attack.
    Keywords: relative value of suicide prevention; health care; priority setting; saving lives; discrete choice experiment; pancreatic cancer; breast cancer; or acute heart attack.
    JEL: D61 I10 I12 I18
    Date: 2023–09–26
  4. By: Jonas Kolsrud; Camille Landais; Daniel Reck; Johannes Spinnewijn
    Abstract: This paper analyzes consumption to evaluate the distributional effects of pension reforms. Using Swedish administrative data, we show that on average workers who retire earlier consume less while retired and experience larger drops in consumption around retirement. Interpreted via a theoretical model, these findings imply that reforms incentivizing later retirement incur a substantial consumption-smoothing cost. Turning to other features of pension policy, we find that reforms that redistribute based on early-career labor supply would have opposite-signed redistributive effects, while differentiating on wealth may help to target pension benefits toward those who are vulnerable to larger drops in consumption around retirement.
    JEL: H55
    Date: 2023–08
  5. By: Loukas Balafoutas; Helena Fornwagner; Rudolf Kerschbamer; Matthias Sutter; Maryna Tverdostup
    Abstract: In markets for credence goods – such as health care or repair services – fraudulent behavior by better informed experts is a common problem. Our model studies how four common features shape experts’ provision behavior in credence goods markets: (i) diagnostic uncertainty of experts; (ii) insurance coverage of consumers; (iii) malpractice payments for treatment failure; and (vi) consumer-regarding preferences of experts. Diagnostic imprecision unambiguously leads to less efficient provision. Insurance coverage and malpractice payments have an ambiguous effect on efficient provision. The impact of consumer-regarding preferences on efficiency is positive without insurance but ambiguous in the presence of insurance.
    Keywords: Credence goods, diagnostic uncertainty, insurance coverage, social preferences
    JEL: D82 G22
    Date: 2023
  6. By: Monica Deza (Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University, 426 Eggers Hall, Syracuse, NY 13244)
    Abstract: We study the effect of community access to mental health and substance use treatment on police officer safety, which we proxy with on-duty assaults on officers. Police officers often serve as first-responders to people experiencing mental health and substance use crises, which can place police officers at risk. Combining agency-level data on police officer on-duty assaults and county-level data on the number of treatment centers that offer mental health and substance use care, we estimate two-way fixed-effects regressions and find that an additional four centers per county (the average annual increase observed in our data) leads to a 1.3% reduction per police agency in on-duty assaults against police officers. Established benefits of access to treatment for mental health and substance use appear to extend to the work environment of police officers.
    Keywords: law enforcement, healthcare, on-duty assaults, mental health disorders, substance use disorders
    JEL: I1 I11 I18
    Date: 2023–09
  7. By: Chad Meyerhoefer; Bingjin Xue; Anna Poznańska
    Abstract: We investigate the consequences of anti-LGBT laws in Poland for suicide attempts and fatalities by applying border-area difference-in-differences models to county-level data. We find that annual suicide attempts increased by 16%, or 5 attempts per 100k capita, after the enactment of anti-LGBT statutes. This rise in suicide attempts was concentrated among men, and was associated with 11 additional suicides per 100k individuals aged 30-49. We also find an increase in suicide attempts in areas that deliberated, but subsequently rejected anti-LGBT resolutions, providing evidence that stigmatization of minority groups leads to declines in population mental health.
    JEL: I12 K38
    Date: 2023–09
  8. By: Miles S. Kimball; Robert J. Willis
    Abstract: Psychologists have developed effective survey methods of measuring how happy people feel at a given time. The relationship between how happy a person feels and utility is an unresolved question. Existing work in Economics either ignores happiness data or assumes that felt happiness is more or less the same thing as flow utility. The approach we propose in this paper steers a middle course between the two polar views that “happiness is irrelevant to Economics” and the view that “happiness is a sufficient statistic for utility.” We argue that felt happiness is not the same thing as flow utility, but that it does have a systematic relationship to utility. In particular, we propose that happiness is the sum of two components: (1) elation–or short-run happiness–which depends on recent news about lifetime utility and (2) baseline mood–or long-run happiness–which is a subutility function much like health, entertainment, or nutrition. In principle, all of the usual techniques of price theory apply to baseline mood, but the application of those techniques is complicated by the fact that many people may not know the true household production function for baseline mood. If this theory is on target, there are two reasons data on felt happiness is important for Economics. First, short-run happiness in response to news can give important information about preferences. Second, long-run happiness is important for economic welfare in the same way as other higher-order goods such as health, entertainment, or nutrition.
    JEL: D60 D90 D91
    Date: 2023–09
  9. By: Blanco, Magdalena; Cabrera, José María; Carozzi, Felipe; Cid, Alejandro
    Abstract: We study the impact of mandatory motorcycle helmet use laws on the severity and volume of road accidents in Uruguay by exploiting a change in the enforcement of the traffic law. Using a differences-in-differences design based on an unexpected change in policy, we report a sharp increase in helmet use and a 5 percentage point reduction in the incidence of serious or fatal motorcyclist accidents from a baseline of 11%. The benefits of helmet use are disproportionately borne by groups more likely to experience serious injuries such as males or young drivers. We find no evidence of other responses in terms of either the volume or type of accidents, suggesting motorcyclists' behaviour did not respond to differences in risk. We show that additional costs of enforcement for the relevant government agencies were negligible and estimate the health benefits of the policy.
    Keywords: law enforcement; safety and accidents; helmet use
    JEL: I12 I18 R41 H89
    Date: 2022–03–01
  10. By: Babak Choodari-Oskooei (MRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL, University College London); Daniel J. Bratton; Mahesh KB Parmar
    Abstract: In this talk, we introduce two Stata programs nstagebin and nstagebinopt which can be used to facilitate the design of multi-arm multi-stage (MAMS) trials with binary outcomes. MAMS designs are a class of efficient and adaptive randomised clinical trials that have successfully been used in many disease areas, including cancer, TB, maternal health, COVID-19, and surgery. The nstagebinopt program finds a class of efficient “admissible” designs based on an optimality criterion using a systematic search procedure. The nstagebin command calculates the stagewise sample sizes, trial timelines, and the overall operating characteristics of MAMS design with binary outcomes. Both programs allow the use of Dunnett's correction to account for multiple testing. We also use the ROSSINI 2 MAMS design, an ongoing MAMS trial in surgical wound infection, to illustrate the capabilities of both programs. The new Stata programs facilitate the design of MAMS trials with binary outcomes where more than one research question can be addressed under one protocol.
    Date: 2023–09–10
  11. By: Luke Slawomirski; Luca Lindner; Katherine de Bienassis; Philip Haywood; Tiago Cravo Oliveira Hashiguchi; Melanie Steentjes; Jillian Oderkirk
    Abstract: Electronic Health Records (eHR) represent a significant digital transformation in the healthcare sector. A 2021 OECD survey of 27 countries revealed a growing adoption of eHRs. However, system fragmentation remains a concern: only 15 countries have a nationally unified system. Twenty-four countries have adopted a minimum data set for standardized core health information. While patient access to eHRs has notably increased since 2016, obstacles such as provider resistance, technical barriers, and legal hurdles continue to exist. The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the pivotal role of eHRs, particularly in vaccine tracking and post-market surveillance, highlighting the pressing need for international cooperation to maximize the benefits of eHRs in healthcare. Furthermore, as eHRs integrate with artificial intelligence, new governance challenges arise.
    JEL: I1 O5 O3
    Date: 2023–09–21
  12. By: Wändi Bruine de Bruin (Department of Earth Sciences [USC Los Angeles] - USC - University of Southern California); Aulona Ulqinaku (Leeds University Business School - University of Leeds); Jimena Llopis (CUBIC - Center for Utilizing Behavioural Insights for Children); Matteo Santangelo Ravà (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Numeracy, or the ability to understand and use numbers, has been associated with obtaining better health and financial outcomes. Studies in high-income countries suggest that low numeracy is associated with older age—perhaps especially among individuals with lower education. Here, we examined whether findings generalize to the rest of the world. Methods Gallup surveyed >150, 000 participants for the 2019 Lloyd's Register Foundation World Risk Poll, from 21 low-income, 34 lower-middle income, 42 upper-middle income, and 43 high-income countries. Low numeracy was operationalized as failing to correctly answer, "Is 10% bigger than 1 out of 10, smaller than 1 out of 10, or the same as 1 out of 10?" Results Regressions controlling for participants' education, income, and other characteristics found that, worldwide, low numeracy was associated with older age, lower education, and their interaction. Findings held in each country-income category, although low numeracy was more common in low-income countries than in high-income countries. Limitations Age differences may reflect cohort effects and life span–developmental changes. Discussion Low numeracy is more common among people who are older and less educated. We discuss the need for education and interventions outside of the classroom. Highlights We analyzed a global survey conducted in 21 low-income, 34 lower-middle income, 42 upper-middle income, and 43 high-income countries. Low numeracy was associated with older adult age, even after accounting for age differences in education. Low numeracy was more common in older people with lower education.
    Keywords: number ability, cognitive ability, age-related decline
    Date: 2023–01
  13. By: Renee Y. Hsia; Yu-Chu Shen
    Abstract: Percutaneous coronary intervention facility openings may have differential effects on treatment and health outcomes for Black versus White patients in residentially segregated versus integrated communities. This study looked at changes in patient treatment and health outcomes (same-day PCI, PCI during hospitalization, 30-day mortality, and 1-year mortality) after the opening of a PCI facility within a 15-minute drive of a community. Findings show that Black patients in integrated communities experienced the greatest benefits after a PCI opening for every outcome examined. Healthcare stakeholders may be able to use this data to prioritize PCI openings in communities that will derive the greatest benefits
    JEL: I11 I14
    Date: 2023–08
  14. By: Takahara, Tsuyoshi; Kanda, Yutaka
    Abstract: This study analyzes the effect of the content of report cards on the optimal incentivized payment for physicians. Our analysis assumes that report card disclosure builds a reputation regarding physicians' ability among patients who do not have the expertise to know better. Furthermore, we assume that the insurer designs a payment scheme that designates high-ability physicians to provide advanced treatment and low-ability physicians to provide a conventional treatment. We compare the benchmark (no disclosure) with two disclosure policies: detailed, where patients can recognize what service was provided and the outcome of the advanced treatment for all physicians, and limited, where patients can distinguish only physicians who provided the advanced treatment successfully. Our analysis shows that detailed disclosure requires a higher expected payment than the benchmark, and the insurer can save it by limiting the informativeness of the report. Intuitively, detailed disclosure conveys physician type more precisely, and the insurer must pay an additional wage for the conventional treatment provided by low-ability physicians. Our result implies that incentivization by non-monetary method (report card) and monetary method (pay-for-performance) may work in both complement and substitute.
    Keywords: Principal-agent model, Reputation concern, Asymmetric information
    JEL: D23 D86 I18
    Date: 2023–09–08
  15. By: A.V. Chari
    Abstract: There is a dearth of evidence on the evolution of occupational health in the developing world and on the extent to which it has been influenced by (1) the pattern of structural transformation in these economies and (2) integration with global markets. In this study, I compile a rich database on workplace injuries in India covering a five-decade period. I use these data to examine trends in the rate of occupational injuries and show that the rate of occupational injuries began trending sharply upwards starting in the 1990s.
    Keywords: Structural change, Health, Globalization, India
    Date: 2023
  16. By: Andy Brownback; Alex Imas; Michael A. Kuhn
    Abstract: Healthy food choices are a canonical example used to illustrate the importance of time preferences in behavioral economics. However, the literature lacks a direct demonstration that they are well-predicted by incentivized time preference measures. We offer direct evidence by combining a novel, two-question, incentivized time preference measurement with data from a field experiment that includes grocery purchases and consumption. Our present-focus measure is highly predictive of food choice, capturing a number of behaviors consistent with self-control problems, which provides direct evidence for the common assumption that important aspects of nutrition are driven by time preferences.
    JEL: D03 H20 I12 I39
    Date: 2023–09
  17. By: Tamás Hajdu (Centre for Economic and Regional Studies)
    Abstract: The Earth’s climate is projected to warm significantly in the 21st century, and this will affect human societies in many ways. Since sleep is a basic human need and part of everyone's life, the question of how temperature affects human sleep naturally arises. This paper examines the effect of daily mean temperature on sleep duration using nationally representative Hungarian time use surveys between 1976 and 2010. Compared to a mild temperature (5-10 °C), colder temperatures do not influence sleep duration. However, as daily mean temperatures rise, sleep duration starts to strongly decline. The effect of a hot (>25 °C) day is −12.4 minutes. The estimated sleep loss is especially large on weekends and public holidays, for older individuals, and for men. Combining the estimated effects with temperature projections of twenty-four climate models under four climate change scenarios shows that the warming climate will substantially decrease sleep duration. The projected impacts are especially large when taking into account of the effects of heatwave days. This study also shows that different groups in society are likely to be affected in significantly different ways by a warming climate.
    Keywords: Keywords: temperature; climate change; sleep; time use survey; Hungary
    JEL: I12 Q54
    Date: 2023–09
  18. By: Barber, Andrew; West, Jeremy
    Abstract: Conditional cash lotteries (CCLs) provide people with opportunities to win monetary prizes only if they make specific behavioral changes. We conduct a case study of Ohio's Vax-A-Million initiative, the first CCL targeting COVID-19 vaccinations. Forming a synthetic control from other states, we find that Ohios incentive scheme increases the vaccinated share of state population by 1.5 percent (0.7 pp), costing sixty-eight dollars per person persuaded to vaccinate. We show this causes significant reductions in COVID-19, preventing at least one infection for every six vaccinations that the lottery had successfully encouraged. These findings are promising for similar CCL public health initiatives.
    Keywords: Vaccine Related, Prevention, Immunization, Good Health and Well Being, COVID-19, COVID-19 Vaccines, Humans, Motivation, SARS-CoV-2, Vaccination, Behavioral economics, Financial incentives, Health policy, health policy, financial incentives, behavioral economics, Public Health and Health Services, Applied Economics, Econometrics, Health Policy & Services, Applied economics, Policy and administration
    Date: 2022–01–01
  19. By: Celidoni, Martina; Costa-Font, Joan; Salmasi, Luca
    Abstract: Unexpected mobility disruptions during lockdown during the first wave of COVID-19 became ’tipping points’ with the potential to alter pre-pandemic routines sensitive to socialisation. This paper investigates the impact of lockdown exposure on alcohol consumption. We document two findings using information from the Google Mobility Report and longitudinal data from the Understanding Society survey (UKHLS) in the United Kingdom. First, we find a sharp reduction in both actual mobility and alcohol use (consistent with a ”still and dry pandemic for the many” hypothesis). However, we document an increase in alcohol use among heavy drinkers, implying a split behavioural response to COVID-19 mobility restrictions based on alcohol use prior to the pandemic. Second, using the predictions of the prevalence-response elasticity theory, we find that the pandemic's reduction in social contacts is responsible for a 2.8 percentage point reduction in drinking among men.
    Keywords: health behaviours; lockdown; mobility restrictions; alcohol addiction; routines; mobility; difference in differences; Covid-19; coronavirus
    JEL: I30 I18
    Date: 2023–08–01
  20. By: Koppa, Vijetha; West, Jeremy
    Abstract: Using a panel of United States counties, this study compares outcomes before and during the 2020-2021 school year between locations that started K-12 instruction on campus, remotely, or through a hybrid approach. Corroborating recent studies, we find comparatively larger increases of COVID-19 cases and deaths in locations using any in-person instruction. Within the same empirical framework, we present robust new evidence that employment was unaffected by this choice, even in counties with more vulnerable populations. We posit that opening schools did not improve employment due to policy uncertainty, supported by the fact that one-quarter of schools changed teaching methods mid-year.
    Keywords: Education policy, Public health, Labor supply, education policy, public health, labor supply, Economics
    Date: 2022–03–01
  21. By: Balietti, Anca; Budjan, Angelika; Eymess, Tillmann; Soldà, Alice
    Abstract: Information can trigger unpleasant emotions. As a result, individuals might be tempted to strategically ignore it. We experimentally investigate whether increasing perceived control can mitigate strategic ignorance. Participants from India were presented with a choice to receive information about the health risk associated with air pollution and were later asked to recall it. Perceived control leads to a substantial improvement in information recall. We find that optimists react most to perceived control, both with a reduction in information avoidance and an increase in information recall. This latter result is supported by a US sample. A theoretical framework rationalizes our findings.
    Keywords: information avoidance; information recall; perceived control; motivated cognition; air pollution; Luftverschmutzung
    Date: 2023–09–22
  22. By: Christelle Baunez (INT - Institut de Neurosciences de la Timone - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Mickaël Degoulet (INT - Institut de Neurosciences de la Timone - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Stéphane Luchini (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Matteo L Pintus (AgroParisTech, Université Paris-Saclay); Patrick A Pintus (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Miriam Teschl (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: We provide a novel way to correct the effective reproduction number for the time-varying amount of tests, using the acceleration index (Baunez et al., 2021) as a simple measure of viral spread dynamics. Not correcting results in the reproduction number being a biased estimate of viral acceleration and we provide a formal decomposition of the resulting bias, involving the useful notions of test and infectivity intensities. When applied to French data for the COVID-19 pandemic (May 13, 2020-October 26, 2022), our decomposition shows that the reproduction number, when considered alone, characteristically underestimates the resurgence of the pandemic, compared to the acceleration index which accounts for the time-varying volume of tests. Because the acceleration index aggregates all relevant information and captures in real time the sizable time variation featured by viral circulation, it is a more parsimonious indicator to track the dynamics of an infectious disease outbreak in real time, compared to the equivalent alternative which would combine the reproduction number with the test and infectivity intensities.
    Keywords: Virus testing, Pandemics, COVID 19, Public and occupational health, France, Acceleration, Diagnostic medicine, Public policy
    Date: 2023–02
  23. By: Monica Deza (Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University, 426 Eggers Hall, Syracuse, NY 13244); Aaron Chalfin (University of Pennsylvania); Shooshan Danagoulian (Wayne State University)
    Abstract: A large body of evidence documents a link between alcohol consumption and violence involving intimate partners and close family members. Recent scholarship suggests that since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent stay-at-home orders, there has been a marked increase in domestic violence. This research considers an important mechanism behind the increase in domestic violence during the COVID-19 pandemic: an increase in the riskiness of alcohol consumption. We combine 911 call data with newly available high-resolution microdata on visits to bars and liquor stores in Detroit, MI and find that the strength of the relationship between visits to alcohol outlets and domestic violence more than doubles starting in March 2020. We find more limited evidence with respect to non-domestic assaults, supporting our conclusion that it is not alcohol consumption per se but alcohol consumption at home that is a principal driver of domestic violence.
    Keywords: Alcohol, COVID, domestic violence
    JEL: I1
    Date: 2023–09
  24. By: Phu Nguyen-Van; Thierry Blayac; Dimitri Dubois; Sebastien Duchene; Bruno Ventelou; Marc Willinger
    Abstract: This paper studies the behavioral and socio-demographic determinants of reported compliance with prophylactic measures against COVID-19: barrier gestures, lockdown restrictions and mask wearing. The study contrasts two types of measures for behavioral determinants: experimentally elicited preferences (risk tolerance, time preferences, social value orientation and cooperativeness) and stated preferences (risk tolerance, time preferences, and the GSS trust question). Data were collected from a representative sample of the metropolitan French adult population (N=1154) surveyed during the first lockdown in May 2020, and the experimental tasks were carried out on-line. The in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power of several regression models - which vary in the set of variables that they include - are studied and compared. Overall, we find that stated preferences are better predictors of compliance with these prophylactic measures than preferences elicited through incentivized experiments: self-reported level of risk, patience and trust are predicting compliance, while elicited measures of risk-aversion, patience, cooperation and prosociality did not.
    Keywords: COVID-19, individual preferences, social preferences, elicited preferences, stated preferences
    JEL: C90 D90 I18
    Date: 2023
  25. By: Robert Fairlie; Robert W. Fairlie
    Abstract: Many small businesses closed in the pandemic, but were economic losses disproportionately felt by businesses owned by people of color? This paper provides the first study of the impacts of COVID-19 on racial inequality in business earnings. Pandemic-induced losses to business earnings in 2020 were 16-19 percent for all business owners. Racial inequality increased in the pandemic: Black business owners experienced larger negative impacts on business earnings of 12-14 percent relative to white business owners. Regression estimates for Latinx and Asian business owners reveal negative point estimates but the estimates are not statistically significant. Using Blinder-Oaxaca decompositions and a new pandemic-focused decomposition technique, I find that the industry concentrations of Black, Latinx, and Asian business owners placed each of these groups at a higher risk of experiencing disproportionate business earnings losses in the pandemic. Higher education levels among Asian business owners helped insulate them from larger losses from COVID-19. In the following year of economic recovery, 2021, business earnings rebounded strongly for all groups except for Asian business owners who experienced large relative losses (which were partly due to industry concentrations). State-level variation in policies and disease spread does not explain racial differences in business earnings losses or rebounds.
    Keywords: entrepreneurship, Covid, racial inequality, business earnings, pandemic
    JEL: L26 J15
    Date: 2023
  26. By: Kalenkoski, Charlene M. (James Madison University); Pabilonia, Sabrina Wulff (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
    Abstract: Adolescence is an important developmental period when teens begin spending less time with their parents and more time with friends and others outside their households as they transition into adulthood. Using the 2017–2021 American Time Use Surveys and the 2012, 2013, and 2021 Well-being Modules, we examine how the time teens spent alone and with parents, friends, and others changed during the COVID-19 pandemic, shedding light on how the social isolation of the pandemic disrupted this crucial development period. We also examine how time spent on various activities changed during the pandemic. Teens spent more time alone during the pandemic than before and spent more of their leisure time alone, with large increases in time spent playing computer games, on social media, and watching TV. Results suggest that socializing and communicating with others improves teens' well-being over other activities. Thus, teens' well-being was severely impacted by the pandemic.
    Keywords: teens, adolescents, COVID-19, well-being, time use, gaming
    JEL: J13 J22
    Date: 2023–09
  27. By: Alexa Prettyman (Department of Economics, Towson University)
    Abstract: As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, schools closed abruptly in March 2020, and Colorado issued a stay-at-home order during the month of April. Subsequently, child maltreatment reporting dropped by 31 percent. This paper documents the decline in referrals and reports during 2020 and 2021 in Colorado and predicts counterfactual estimates using two strategies. One strategy assumes the underlying behavior for child maltreatment was unchanged from 2019 to 2020 and 2021, while the second strategy assumes the economic distress and protective factors brought about by the pandemic altered the underlying prevalence of child maltreatment. Consequently, these two approaches yield similar results when investigating referrals, but they differ when investigating screened-in referrals and substantiated reports. I find that the largest reduction in reporting comes from the stay-at-home order, followed by school closings. Lastly, counterfactual estimates suggest that these missed children were suffering from neglect and not abuse. These findings quantify another hardship brought about by the pandemic, underreporting child maltreatment, and underscore the role mandatory reporters play in detecting child maltreatment.
    Keywords: Child maltreatment, COVID-19, Underreporting, Colorado, Stay-at-home order.
    JEL: H12 H75 I18 I31 J12
    Date: 2023–09

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