nep-hea New Economics Papers
on Health Economics
Issue of 2022‒12‒05
25 papers chosen by
Nicolas R. Ziebarth
Cornell University

  1. Parenting Promotes Social Mobility Within and Across Generations By García, Jorge Luis; Heckman, James J.
  2. The Refugee's Dilemma: Evidence from Jewish Migration out of Nazi Germany By Johannes Buggle; Thierry Mayer; Seyhun Orcan Sakalli; Mathias Thoenig
  3. Mergers and Advertising in the Pharmaceutical Industry By Dubois, Pierre; Majewska, Gosia
  4. Set it and Forget it? Financing Retirement in an Age of Defaults By Lucas Goodman; Anita Mukherjee; Shanthi Ramnath
  5. The Effect of Performance Pay Incentives on Market Frictions: Evidence from Medicare By Atul Gupta; Guy David; Lucy (Kunhee) Kim
  6. Meta-Analysis of E-Cigarette Price Elasticity By Selya, Arielle; Foxon, Floe; Chandra, Siddharth; Nealer, Erin
  7. Intended and Unintended Effects of E-cigarette Taxes on Youth Tobacco Use By Abouk, Rahi; Courtemanche, Charles; Dave, Dhaval M.; Feng, Bo; Friedman, Abigail S.; Maclean, J. Catherine; Pesko, Michael; Sabia, Joseph J.; Safford, Samuel
  8. Workplace Presenteeism, Job Substitutability and Gender Inequality By Ghazala Azmat; Lena Hensvik; Olof Rosenqvist
  9. A Social Epidemiological Perspective on Gun Fatalities in Australia and New Zealand By Goldman, Daniel S
  10. The NBER Orange Book Dataset: A User’s Guide By Maya Durvasula; C. Scott Hemphill; Lisa Larrimore Ouellette; Bhaven N. Sampat; Heidi L. Williams
  11. The Hedgehog’s Curse: Knowledge Specialization and Displacement Loss By Victor Hernandez Martinez; Hans Holter; Roberto Pinheiro
  12. Calculating Contraceptive Prevalence and Unmet Family Planning Need in the Republic of Moldova using the Generations and Gender Survey By Koops, Judith Christel
  13. National Couples’ Health and Time Study: Sample, Design, and Weighting By Kamp Dush, Claire M; Manning, Wendy; Berrigan, Miranda N.; Marlar, Jenny; VanBergen, Alexandra; Theodorou, Angelina; Tsabutashvili, Dato; Chattopadhyay, Manas
  14. Should We Trust Regression to Measure Social Disparities? By Wu, Christopher
  15. Geographic Variation in Inpatient Care Utilization, Outcomes and Costs for Dementia Patients in China By Lin, Zhuoer; Ba, Fang; Allore, Heather; Liu, Gordon G.; Chen, Xi
  16. Thirty years on: A review of the Lee-Carter method for forecasting mortality By Basellini, Ugofilippo; Camarda, Carlo Giovanni; Booth, Heather
  17. WADA TEST: AN OPTIMISED PROTOCOL IN RUSSIAN By Irina Provlotskaya; Mikhail Maslennikov; Olga Dragoy
  18. Climate Exposures and Household Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa By Piringer, Niklas; Vardanega, Gabrielle; Thiede, Brian C.
  19. PV-diesel-hybrid system for a hospital in Ghana - Connection of a PV battery storage model to an existing generator model By Matthias Bebber; Stefanie Meilinger; Samer Chaaraoui; Silvan Rummeny; Thorsten Schneiders; Eberhard Waffenschmidt
  20. Gender, Loneliness and Happiness during COVID-19 By Lepinteur, Anthony; Clark, Andrew E.; Ferrer-i-Carbonell, Ada; Piper, Alan; Schröder, Carsten; D'Ambrosio, Conchita
  21. “The CDC Won’t Let Me Be.” The Opinion Dynamics of Support for CDC Regulatory Authority By Motta, Matt; Callaghan, Timothy; Trujillo, Kristin Lunz
  22. An Optimal Mechanism to Fund the Development of Vaccines Against Emerging Epidemics By Christopher M. Snyder; Kendall Hoyt; Dimitrios Gouglas
  23. Using preference estimates to customize incentives: an application to Polio vaccination drives in Pakistan By Andreoni, James; Callen, Mike; Hussain, Karrar; Khan, Muhammad Yasir; Sprenger, Charles
  24. The Very Temporary Effect of Covid-19 on English Fertility By Ermisch, John
  25. The role of tax-benefit systems in protecting household incomes in Latin America during the COVID-19 pandemic By David Rodríguez; H. Xavier Jara; Mariana Dondo; Cristina Arancibia; David Macas; Rebeca Riella; Joana Urraburu; Linda Llamas; Luis Huesca; Javier Torres; Rodrigo Chang

  1. By: García, Jorge Luis (Clemson University); Heckman, James J. (University of Chicago)
    Abstract: This paper compares early childhood enrichment programs that promote social mobility for disadvantaged children within and across generations. Instead of conducting a standard meta-analysis, we present a harmonized primary data analysis of programs that shape current policy. Our analysis is a template for rigorous syntheses and comparisons across programs. We analyze new long-run life-cycle data collected for iconic programs when participants are middle-aged and their children are in their twenties. The iconic programs are omnibus in nature and offer many services to children and their parents. We compare them with relatively low-cost more focused home-visiting programs. Successful interventions target both children and their caregivers. They engage caregivers and improve the home lives of children. They permanently boost cognitive and non-cognitive skills. Participants in programs that enrich home environments grow up with better skills, jobs, earnings, marital stability, and health, as well as reduced participation in crime. Long-run monetized gains are substantially greater than program costs for iconic programs. We investigate the mechanisms promoting successful family lives for participants and find intergenerational effects on their children. A study of focused home-visiting programs that target parents enables us to isolate a crucial component of successful programs: they activate and promote parenting skills of child caregivers. The home-visiting programs we analyze produce outcomes comparable to those of the iconic omnibus programs. National implementation of the programs with long-run follow up that we analyze would substantially shrink the overall US Black-White earnings gap.
    Keywords: skills, social mobility, inequality, human development
    JEL: J18 J13 J24 J31 D13
    Date: 2022–10
  2. By: Johannes Buggle (University of Vienna [Vienna]); Thierry Mayer (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Seyhun Orcan Sakalli (King‘s College London); Mathias Thoenig (UNIL - Université de Lausanne = University of Lausanne, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR)
    Abstract: We estimate the push and pull factors involved in the outmigration of Jews facing persecution in Nazi Germany from 1933 to 1941. Our empirical investigation makes use of a unique individual-level dataset that records the migration history of the Jewish community in Germany over the period. Our analysis highlights new channels, specific to violent contexts, through which social networks affect the decision to flee. We first estimate a structural model of migration where individuals base their own migration decision on the observation of persecution and migration among their peers. Identification rests on exogenous variations in local push and pull factors across peers who live in different cities of residence. Then we perform various experiments of counterfactual history to quantify how migration restrictions in destination countries affected the fate of Jews. For example, removing work restrictions for refugees in the recipient countries after the Nuremberg Laws (of 1935) would have led to an increase in Jewish migration out of Germany in the range of 12 to 20%, and a reduction in mortality due to prevented deportations in the range of 6 to 10%.
    Keywords: Refugees,Migration Policy,Counterfactual History,Nazi Germany
    Date: 2022–04–14
  3. By: Dubois, Pierre; Majewska, Gosia
    Abstract: In many industries, market structure determines how firms not only compete in terms of prices but also utilize promotional activities. We study how price and advertising strategies change when firms merge in pharmaceutical markets in the US. We show that across all drug markets, although mergers indeed increase prices, advertising spending also decreases. Merger simulations not accounting for advertising reductions may thus obtain biased price eects. Considering the merger effects of two large pharmaceutical companies on an antimicrobial drug market, we estimate a structural model of supply and demand and simulate the merger effect. We find that the merger effect on prices is smaller given the reduction in the amount of advertising. We also provide a simple method through which to evaluate long-term welfare effects using some known value of the sensitivity of innovation to profits.
    Keywords: Merger; Advertising; Drugs; Welfare; Innovation;
    JEL: I10 L22 L41
    Date: 2022–11–07
  4. By: Lucas Goodman; Anita Mukherjee; Shanthi Ramnath
    Abstract: Retirement savings abandonment is a rising concern connected to defined contribution systems and default enrollment. We use tax data on Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) to establish that for a recent cohort, 0.4% of retirement-age individuals abandoned an aggregate of $66 million, proxied by a failure to claim over ten years after a legal requirement to do so. Analysis of state unclaimed property databases suggests that workplace defined contribution plans are abandoned at a higher rate than IRAs. Finally, regression discontinuity estimates show that certain accounts created by default enrollment are at higher risk of abandonment by passive savers.
    Keywords: escheatment; defaults; retirement savings
    JEL: D83 H24 H31 J32 J14 J63
    Date: 2022–10–19
  5. By: Atul Gupta; Guy David; Lucy (Kunhee) Kim
    Abstract: Medicare has increased the use of performance pay incentives for hospitals, with the goal of increasing care coordination across providers, reducing market frictions, and ultimately to improve quality of care. This paper provides new empirical evidence by using novel operations and claims data from a large, independent home health care firm with the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP) penalty on hospitals providing identifying variation. We find that the penalty incentive to reduce re-hospitalizations passed through from hospitals to the firm at least for some types of patients, since it provided more care inputs for heart disease patients discharged from hospitals at greater penalty risk and that contributed more patients to the firm. This evidence suggests that HRRP helped increase coordination between hospitals and home health firms without formal integration. Greater home health effort does not appear to have led to lower patient readmissions.
    JEL: I11 I13 I18
    Date: 2022–11
  6. By: Selya, Arielle; Foxon, Floe; Chandra, Siddharth; Nealer, Erin
    Abstract: Background: Adoption of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) has the potential to impact the prevalence of combusted cigarette use. Understanding whether and how much ENDS act as economic substitutes for cigarettes helps inform tobacco policy to minimize harm. Objectives: The goals of this study are to review the own-price elasticity of ENDS, the cross-price elasticity of ENDS with respect to cigarette price (including taxes), and the cross-price elasticity of cigarettes with respect to ENDS price. Methods: Pre-registered systematic review and meta-analysis following Cochrane review guidelines where applicable. Articles were sourced from PubMed and Google Scholar. Where appropriate, effects were combined in random-effects models with a two-step estimator. Other articles were reviewed narratively. Results: A 10% increase in ENDS price is associated with a 10.7% (7.7%–13.6%) decrease in ENDS sales/purchases, and also decreased ENDS use prevalence. A 10% increase in cigarette price is associated with an 18.3% (9.3%–27.4%) increase in ENDS sales/purchases, and also increased ENDS use prevalence. No evidence for increased cigarette sales/purchases after increased ENDS price was found, but increased ENDS price was associated with increased smoking prevalence, propensity, and number of cigarettes smoked. Discussion: These data suggest ENDS are substitutes for cigarettes. Taxing cigarettes encourages switching away from the more harmful product. More research is needed to clarify the association between ENDS price and cigarette demand. Conclusions: Policymakers should consider using taxation to influence behavior and tax tobacco products in proportion to their harm.
    Date: 2022–10–07
  7. By: Abouk, Rahi (William Paterson University); Courtemanche, Charles (University of Kentucky); Dave, Dhaval M. (Bentley University); Feng, Bo (American Institutes for Research); Friedman, Abigail S. (Yale University); Maclean, J. Catherine (Temple University); Pesko, Michael (Georgia State University); Sabia, Joseph J. (San Diego State University); Safford, Samuel (San Diego State University)
    Abstract: Over the past decade, rising youth use of e-cigarettes and other electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) has contributed to aggressive regulation by state and local governments. Between 2010 and mid-2019, ten states and two large counties adopted ENDS taxes. We use two large national surveys (Monitoring the Future and the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System) to estimate the impact of ENDS taxes on youth tobacco use. We find that ENDS taxes reduce youth ENDS consumption, with estimated ENDS tax elasticities of -0.06 to -0.21. However, we estimate sizable positive cigarette cross-tax effects, suggesting economic substitution between cigarettes and ENDS for youth. These substitution effects are particularly large for frequent cigarette smoking. We conclude that the unintended effects of ENDS taxation may considerably undercut or even outweigh any public health gains.
    Keywords: electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), e-cigarettes, vaping, cigarettes, smoking, taxes, youth
    JEL: H2 I1 I18
    Date: 2022–10
  8. By: Ghazala Azmat (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEP - LSE - Centre for Economic Performance - LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science); Lena Hensvik (Uppsala University); Olof Rosenqvist (IFAU - The Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy)
    Abstract: Following the arrival of the first child, women's absence rates soar and become less predictable. This fall in workplace presenteeism harms women's wages, especially in jobs with low substitutability. Although both presenteeism and job uniqueness are rewarded, we document that women's likelihood of holding jobs with low substitutability decreases relative to men's after childbearing. This gap persists, with important long-run wage implications. We highlight that the parenthood wage penalty for women could be reduced by organizing work so that more employees have tasks that can be performed satisfactorily by other employees in the workplace.
    Keywords: Work absence,Job substitutability,Gender wage inequality
    Date: 2021–11
  9. By: Goldman, Daniel S
    Abstract: After the events of the 2019 mass shootings in Christchurch New Zealand, the effectiveness of its gun control measures were brought into question. More gun control measures were proposed as a means of reducing such acts of violence. Both Australia and New Zealand have been considered models for gun control policy. However, it is possible that sociostructural changes, rather than legal changes, are the true cause of apparent declines in gun violence in these countries. This paper analyzes the firearm mortality rates of both countries and identifies a strong correlation that should not exist, under the assumption that legal reforms are responsible for the decline in violence in these two countries.
    Date: 2022–08–08
  10. By: Maya Durvasula; C. Scott Hemphill; Lisa Larrimore Ouellette; Bhaven N. Sampat; Heidi L. Williams
    Abstract: This paper introduces a newly digitized, open-access version of the Food and Drug Administration’s “Orange Book”—a linkage between approved small-molecule drugs and the patents that protect them. The Orange Book also reports any applicable regulatory exclusivity that prevents competitive entry. We summarize the Orange Book’s coverage and discuss the opportunities and challenges associated with using these data for research. Empirical validations against various administrative datasets suggest that Orange Book records are, largely, complete and accurate. We conclude with a specific use case—calculating legal exclusivity periods for drugs—to highlight the types of choices that researchers must make when using this resource.
    JEL: O0 O3
    Date: 2022–11
  11. By: Victor Hernandez Martinez; Hans Holter; Roberto Pinheiro
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of knowledge specialization on earnings losses following displacement. We develop a novel measure of the specialization of human capital, based on how concentrated the knowledge used in an occupation is. Combining our measure with individual labor histories from the NLSY 79-97 and Norway’s LEED, we show that workers with more specialized human capital suffer larger earnings losses following exogenous displacement. A one standard deviation increase in pre-displacement knowledge specialization increases the earnings losses post-displacement by 3 to 4 pp per year in the US, and by 1.5 to 2 pp per year in Norway. In the US, the negative effect of higher pre-displacement knowledge specialization on post-displacement earnings is driven by the negative impact of knowledge specialization on well-paid outside opportunities. By contrast, this association between outside opportunities and knowledge specialization plays no role in post-displacement earnings losses in Norway, where the negative effect of specialization is in part explained by its association with the routine content and the offshoring probability of the occupation.
    Keywords: Earnings Loss; Knowledge Specialization; Unemployment; Human Capital
    JEL: J31 J62 J63
    Date: 2022–11–09
  12. By: Koops, Judith Christel (Radboud University)
    Abstract: Contraceptive prevalence and unmet need for family planning are two metrics needed to track the progress of Sustainable Development Goal 3.7 which aims to ensure universal access to sexual and reproductive health-care services by 2030. Research on unmet need for family planning and to a lesser extend contraceptive prevalence are mostly focused on high-fertility countries situated in the Global South. The Generations and Gender Survey is a cross-national longitudinal survey which collects information on population and family dynamics in low-fertility settings in Europe, Asia and South America. Recently, its questionnaire was adjusted in order to capture all information needed to calculate unmet need for family planning and contraceptive prevalence. Calculating these family planning indicators can be difficult and is time-consuming. To reduce this burden, this technical paper demonstrates how to calculate unmet need for family planning and contraceptive prevalence with Generations and Gender Survey data collected in the Republic of Moldova. By making the calculation reproducible, this paper aims to stimulate family planning research in low-fertility settings.
    Date: 2022–07–29
  13. By: Kamp Dush, Claire M (University of Minnesota-Twin Cities); Manning, Wendy; Berrigan, Miranda N.; Marlar, Jenny; VanBergen, Alexandra; Theodorou, Angelina; Tsabutashvili, Dato; Chattopadhyay, Manas
    Abstract: The National Couples’ Health and Time Study (NCHAT) is the first fully-powered, population-representative study of couples in America containing large samples of sexual, gender, and racial and ethnic diverse individuals. Drawn from the Gallup Panel and the Gallup Recontact Sample, when weighted, the data are population representative of individuals in the United States who 1) are married or cohabiting, 2) are between 20 and 60, 3) speak English or Spanish, and 4) have internet access. The data were collected between September 2020 and April 2021 in the midst of a global pandemic as well as racial and political upheaval. NCHAT includes surveys of 3,642 main respondents and 1,515 partners along with time diaries. We describe the sampling process, challenges weighting a diverse population-representative samples, and sociodemographic characteristics of the NCHAT. These data will provide opportunities for new research on the health and well-being of American families.
    Date: 2022–07–22
  14. By: Wu, Christopher
    Abstract: When investigating socioeconomic disparities in exposure to social ills, it is common to use (semi-)parametric regression, and interpret the parameter estimates as measures of inequality. However, disparity researchers often know little about the data generating process; therefore, not only are models misspecified, but it becomes difficult to even know which model is `better'. Under misspecification, common interpretations of regression coefficients can break down. Without a `right' model, model selection can be arbitrary, leading to credibility concerns as estimates are often sensitive to model selection. Predictive model selection can attenuate the measure of inequality if irrelevant predictors explain away the inequality. Examples are presented to illustrate key pitfalls.
    Date: 2022–07–20
  15. By: Lin, Zhuoer; Ba, Fang; Allore, Heather; Liu, Gordon G.; Chen, Xi
    Abstract: Dementia leads public health issue worldwide. China has the largest population of adults living with dementia in the world, imposing increasing burdens on the public health and healthcare systems. Despite improved access to health services, inadequate and uneven dementia management remains common. We document the provincial-level geographic patterns in healthcare utilization, outcomes, and costs for patients hospitalized for dementia in China. Regional patterns demonstrate gaps in equity and efficiency of dementia care and management for dementia patients. Health policy and practices should consider geographic disparities in disease burden and healthcare provision to promote equitable allocation of resources for dementia care throughout China.
    Keywords: Dementia,Health Care,Hospitalization,Inpatient Costs,In-hospital Mortality,Geographic Variation
    JEL: J14 I11 I14 I18 H75
    Date: 2022
  16. By: Basellini, Ugofilippo; Camarda, Carlo Giovanni; Booth, Heather
    Abstract: The introduction of the Lee-Carter (LC) method marked a breakthrough in mortality forecasting, providing a simple yet powerful data-driven stochastic approach. The method has the merit of capturing the dynamics of mortality change by a single time index that is invariably linear. This 30th anniversary review of its 1992 publication examines the LC method and the large body of research that it has since spawned. We first describe the method and present a 30-year ex-post evaluation of the original LC forecast for U.S.~mortality. We then review the most prominent extensions of the LC method in relation to the limitations that they sought to address. With a focus on the efficacy of the various extensions, we review existing evaluations and comparisons. To conclude, we juxtapose the two main statistical approaches used, discuss further issues, and identify several potential avenues for future research.
    Date: 2022–08–21
  17. By: Irina Provlotskaya (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Mikhail Maslennikov (National Medical and Surgical Center Named after N. I. Pirogov); Olga Dragoy (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The Wada test or intracarotid amobarbital procedure is commonly used to determine hemisphere dominance for language and memory. This study presents the first standardised Wada protocol for Russian-speaking population. First, we provided the background on the Wada procedure and made the comparison of two most widely accepted standardised protocols, the Montreal and the Seattle ones. Next, the whole procedure of the Wada test according to our protocol was presented. Additionally, the main types of speech errors that may occur during the procedure were analysed. The protocol was first tested in 20 non-brain-damaged participants. Finally, the newly designed protocol was clinically piloted, with resulted in revealing its high reliability. With the new protocol, it was possible to determine for each of the tested patients, which hemisphere was responsible for language, and which - for memory.
    Keywords: language, memory, Wada, fMRI, EEG, the Russian language, Seattle protocol, Montreal protocol
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2022
  18. By: Piringer, Niklas; Vardanega, Gabrielle; Thiede, Brian C. (The Pennsylvania State University)
    Abstract: Climatic variability has been linked to multiple demographic and health outcomes, but few studies have examined its impact on household size. Household size is an important correlate of wellbeing and is driven by multiple demographic processes that may be affected by environmental shocks. This paper describes these links conceptually, and then empirically examines the effects of exposure to climate anomalies on household size and three underlying components: fertility, marriage, and family agglomeration (partition). We examine these relationships by linking harmonized census microdata from eleven sub-Saharan African countries with high-resolution climate data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and modeling the effects of recent temperature and precipitation exposures on the outcomes of interest. Our analyses find little evidence that recent temperature and precipitation exposures lead to overall changes in household size. When examining underlying demographic dynamics, however, we find that family agglomeration responds to both temperature and rainfall, marriage responds to rainfall and cold shocks, and higher temperatures are associated with increases in fertility. By studying these outcomes in one unified conceptual and empirical framework, our results suggest that many components of household size are associated with climate exposures, but in a manner that does not translate into significant net changes in household size.
    Date: 2022–07–13
  19. By: Matthias Bebber; Stefanie Meilinger; Samer Chaaraoui; Silvan Rummeny; Thorsten Schneiders; Eberhard Waffenschmidt
    Abstract: In this paper, a model of a photovoltaic (PV)-diesel-hybrid system is built. In addition to a PV system, this system has a battery storage system and is connected to the public power grid. In case of a failure of all three energy sources, a diesel generator ensures the power supply. With the help of the created model, the influence of different seasons and weather conditions on the PV yield and the entire system is investigated in the period from February 2016 to February 2017. The data for this study was collected in a hospital in Akwatia, Ghana. The hospital is already equipped with a PV system and a diesel generator as backup. Another aspect of the study is the impact of power outages, which are common in this region, on the use of the generator. The results show the relevance of seasonal and infrastructural influences on the operating mode of the system. With the help of the created model it was shown that especially during the rainy season in August the PV output decreases and consequently a lot of energy has to be provided by the public grid and the generator. Another significant drop in PV yield is observed at the time of Harmattan in January.
    JEL: Q41
    Date: 2021–03–16
  20. By: Lepinteur, Anthony (University of Luxembourg); Clark, Andrew E. (Paris School of Economics); Ferrer-i-Carbonell, Ada (IAE Barcelona (CSIC)); Piper, Alan (University of Leeds); Schröder, Carsten (DIW Berlin); D'Ambrosio, Conchita (University of Luxembourg)
    Abstract: We analyse a measure of loneliness from a representative sample of German individuals interviewed in both 2017 and at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Both men and women felt lonelier during the COVID-19 pandemic than they did in 2017. The pandemic more than doubled the gender loneliness gap: women were lonelier than men in 2017, and the 2017-2020 rise in loneliness was far larger for women. This rise is mirrored in life-satisfaction scores. Men's life satisfaction changed only little between 2017 and 2020; yet that of women fell dramatically, and sufficiently so to produce a female penalty in life satisfaction. We estimate that almost all of this female penalty is explained by the disproportionate rise in loneliness for women during the COVID-19 pandemic.
    Keywords: loneliness, life satisfaction, gender, COVID-19, SOEP
    JEL: I10 I14 I18 I30
    Date: 2022–10
  21. By: Motta, Matt (Oklahoma State University); Callaghan, Timothy; Trujillo, Kristin Lunz
    Abstract: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) play a central role in responding to communicable disease threats. Its authority to do so, however, has recently met significant political and legal opposition. Unpacking the dynamics of public support for CDC authority is an important question, as doing so can provide insight into whether policymakers might have an incentive to expand (or curtail) the agency’s regulatory powers. In a demographically representative survey of 5,483 US adults, we find that most Americans support the CDC’s role in responding to health crises, although self-identified conservatives are less likely to do so. Consistent with the idea that opposition to CDC-authority may result (in part) from receptivity to elite anti-CDC rhetoric, the effect of ideology holds when accounting for respondents’ limited government and anti-expert attitudes; an effect we replicate in nationally representative data from the American National Election Study (ANES). Encouragingly, though, we find via a novel survey experiment that emphasizing the CDC’s central role in combating the spread of COVID-19 is associated with significantly stronger levels of support on the ideological right. We conclude by discussing how these findings might influence effective health communication in the face of mounting political and legal challenges to CDC regulatory authority.
    Date: 2022–09–07
  22. By: Christopher M. Snyder; Kendall Hoyt; Dimitrios Gouglas
    Abstract: We derive the optimal funding mechanism to incentivize development and production of vaccines against diseases with epidemic potential. In the model, suppliers' costs are private information and investments are noncontractible, precluding cost-reimbursement contracts, requiring fixed-price contracts conditioned on delivery of a successful product. The high failure risk for individual vaccines calls for incentivizing multiple entrants, accomplished by the optimal mechanism, a (w+1)-price reverse Vickrey auction with reserve. Our analysis determines the optimal number of entrants and required funding level. Based on a distribution of supplier costs estimated from survey data, we simulate the optimal mechanism's performance in scenarios ranging from a small outbreak, causing harm in the millions of dollars, to the Covid-19 pandemic, causing harm in the trillions. We assess which mechanism features contribute most to its optimality.
    JEL: D47 H44 I18 L65 O31
    Date: 2022–11
  23. By: Andreoni, James; Callen, Mike; Hussain, Karrar; Khan, Muhammad Yasir; Sprenger, Charles
    Abstract: We use estimates of time preferences to customize incentives for polio vaccinators in Lahore, Pakistan. We measure time preferences using intertemporal allocations of effort, and use these estimates to construct individually-tailored incentives. We evaluate the effect of matching contract terms to discounting parameters in a subsequent experiment with the same vaccinators. Our tailored policy is compared to alternatives that either rely on atheoretic reduced-form relationships for policy guidance or apply the same policy to all individuals. We find that contracts tailored to individual discounting outperform this range of policy alternatives.
    Keywords: structural estimation; out-of-sample prediction; discounting; present bias
    JEL: D10 D30
    Date: 2022
  24. By: Ermisch, John
    Abstract: This note reports estimates of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on English fertility. It uses monthly data on the General Fertility Rate (GFR) over the period 2011-2021 to estimate dynamic models of the GFR, some of which include measures of men’s and women's unemployment rates. The models are used to generate monthly counterfactual fertility during 2020-21 from which the impact of the pandemic is inferred. The Covid pandemic had a very short-term depressing impact on fertility. It reduced conceptions sharply during the first wave of the pandemic (April 2020), affecting fertility in January 2021, but this was fully compensated for by a higher fertility during the last 10 months of 2021. It also appears that changes in unemployment rates played little role in these pandemic-related fertility movements.
    Date: 2022–07–11
  25. By: David Rodríguez; H. Xavier Jara; Mariana Dondo; Cristina Arancibia; David Macas; Rebeca Riella; Joana Urraburu; Linda Llamas; Luis Huesca; Javier Torres; Rodrigo Chang
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic drastically affected household incomes around the world. In developed economies, pre-pandemic tax-benefit policies and emergency transfers mitigated to a large extent the negative income shock. However, less is known about the effect of government intervention on household incomes in developing countries. The aim of this paper is to assess in a comparative way the role of tax-benefit policies in protecting household incomes during the pandemic in seven Latin American countries: Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay.
    Keywords: Taxes, Benefits, COVID-19, Latin America, Automatic stabilizers, Tax-benefit policy
    Date: 2022

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