nep-hea New Economics Papers
on Health Economics
Issue of 2021‒09‒20
twenty-two papers chosen by
Nicolas R. Ziebarth
Cornell University

  1. Hooked on weight control: An economic theory of anorexia nervosa, and its impact on health and longevity By Strulik, Holger
  2. Maternal depression and child human capital: A genetic instrumental-variable approach By Menta, Giorgia; Lepinteur, Anthony; Clark, Andrew E.; Ghislandi, Simone; D’Ambrosio, Conchita
  3. The Implications of Self-Reported Body Weight and Height for Measurement Error in BMI By Davillas, Apostolos; Jones, Andrew M.
  4. The right to health and the health effects of denials By Sonia Bhalotra; Manuel Fernández
  5. Health Dynamics and Heterogeneous Life Expectancies By Richard Foltyn; Jonna Olsson
  6. Child Health and Parental Responses to an Unconditional Cash Transfer at Birth By de Gendre, Alexandra; Lynch, John; Meunier, Aurélie; Pilkington, Rhiannon; Schurer, Stefanie
  7. Climate change and population: an integrated assessment of mortality due to health impacts By Antonin Pottier; Marc Fleurbaey; Aurélie Méjean; Stéphane Zuber
  8. Adverse Working Conditions and Immigrants' Physical Health and Depression Outcomes: A Longitudinal Study in Greece By Drydakis, Nick
  9. Sex Workers' Self-Reported Physical and Mental Health in Greece: A Repeated Cross-Sectional Study in 2009, 2013 and 2019 By Drydakis, Nick
  10. Work-family typologies and mental health among women in early working ages By Karen van Hedel; Heta Moustgaard; Mikko Myrskylä; Pekka Martikainen
  11. Worrying about Work? Disentangling the Relationship between Economic Insecurity and Mental Health By Paul Fiedler
  12. Valuing informal carers’ quality of life using best-worst scaling—Finnish preference weights for the Adult Social Care Outcomes Toolkit for carers (ASCOT-Carer) By Nguyen, Lien; Jokimäki, Hanna; Linnosmaa, Ismo; Saloniki, Eirini Christina; Batchelder, Laurie; Malley, Juliette; Lu, Hui; Burge, Peter; Trukeschitz, Birgit; Forder, Julien
  13. Act Early to Prevent Infections and Save Lives: Causal Impact of Diagnostic Efficiency on the COVID-19 Pandemic By Chen, Simiao; Jin, Zhangfeng; Vollmer, Sebastian; Bärnighausen, Till; David E. Bloom
  14. Employment changes during the COVID-19-pandemic and mental health: Evidence from a longitudinal study By Reme, Bjørn-Atle; Wörn, Jonathan; Skirbekk, Vegard
  15. Prosociality Predicts Individual Behavior and Collective Outcomes in the COVID-19 Pandemic By Ximeng Fang; Timo Freyer; Chui Yee Ho; Zihua Chen; Lorenz Goette
  16. Rates of SARS-COV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains By Simón A. Rella; Yuliya A. Kulikova; Emmanouil T. Dermitzakis; Fyodor A. Kondrashov
  17. Optimal Lockdown Strategy in a Pandemic: An Exploratory Analysis for Covid-19 By Gopal K. Basak; Chandramauli Chakraborty; Pranab Kumar Das
  18. Vaccination strategies and transmission of COVID-19: evidence across leading countries By Dongwoo Kim; Young Jun Lee
  19. COVID-19, Vaccination, and Consumer Behavior By MORIKAWA Masayuki
  20. Social Aspects of COVID Mitigation By Shockey, James W
  21. Drivers of COVID-19 Outcomes: Evidence from a Heterogeneous SAR Panel Data Model By Christopher F Baum; Miguel Henry
  22. Comportement des ménages Brésiliens face à la COVID-19 By Pascale Phélinas; Camille Ciriez

  1. By: Strulik, Holger
    Abstract: In this paper, I combine economic theories of health behavior and addiction in order to explain the phenomenon of anorexia nervosa and its impact on health and longevity. Individuals consume normal goods and foods and can work off excess calories with physical exercise. There exists a healthy body mass index and deviations from it increasingly cause health deficits due to obesity or underweight. There exists also a subjective target weight and being heavier than target weight causes a loss of utility from body image. Individuals for whom the utility loss from missing target weight is large exert more weight control, i.e. they eat less and exercise more. Anorexia is initiated in individuals who are particularly successful in weight control and prone to addiction. Addiction to weight control motivates anorexic individuals to perpetually adjust their target weight downwards and to eat less and exercise more. With declining weight, health deficits accumulate faster and mortality risk rises. I calibrate the model to a reference American with bmi 28. Due to weight loss addiction, the bmi gradually declines to a level of 15 and causes a loss of 21 years of life expectancy at the age of 20.
    Keywords: weight control,addiction,eating disorder,physical exercise,healthde cits,mortality
    JEL: D11 D91 E21 I10 I12
    Date: 2021
  2. By: Menta, Giorgia; Lepinteur, Anthony; Clark, Andrew E.; Ghislandi, Simone; D’Ambrosio, Conchita
    Abstract: We here address the causal relationship between maternal depression and child human capital using UK cohort data. We exploit the conditionally-exogenous variation in mothers’ genomes in an instrumental-variable approach, and describe the conditions under which mother’s genetic variants can be used as valid instruments. An additional episode of maternal depression between the child’s birth up to age nine reduces both their cognitive and non-cognitive skills by 20 to 45% of a SD throughout adolescence. Our results are robust to a battery of sensitivity tests addressing, among others, concerns about pleiotropy and the maternal transmission of genes to her child.
    Keywords: Mendelian Randomisation, Maternal Depression, Human Capital, Instrumental Variables, ALSPAC
    Date: 2021–09
  3. By: Davillas, Apostolos (University of East Anglia); Jones, Andrew M. (University of York)
    Abstract: We designed an experiment to explore the extent of measurement error in body mass index (BMI), when based on self-reported body weight and height. We find that there is a systematic age gradient in the reporting error in BMI, while there is limited evidence of systematic associations with gender, education and income. This is reassuring evidence for the use of self-reported BMI in studies that use it as an outcome, for example, to analyse socioeconomic gradients in obesity. However, our results suggest a complex structure of non-classical measurement error in BMI, depending on both individuals' and within-household peers' true BMI. This may bias studies that use BMI based on self-reported data as a regressor. Common methods to mitigate reporting error in BMI using predictions from corrective equations do not fully eliminate reporting heterogeneity associated with individual and within-household true BMI. Overall, the presence of non-classical error in BMI highlights the importance of collecting measured body weight and height data in large social science datasets.
    Keywords: BMI, experiment, measurement error, reporting bias
    JEL: I10 C18 C50
    Date: 2021–08
  4. By: Sonia Bhalotra; Manuel Fernández
    Abstract: We estimate the health costs of supply-side barriers to accessing medical care. The setting is Colombia, where citizens have a constitutional right to health care, but insurance companies that manage delivery impose restrictions on access. We use administrative data on judicial claims for health as a proxy for unmet demand. We validate this using the register recording all health service utilization, estimating that a one standard deviation increase in judicial claims is associated with pervasive decreases in utilization rates of between 0.25 and 0.71 standard deviations, including in medical consultations, procedures, hospitalizations and emergency care. These restrictions on access manifest in population health outcomes. We estimate that a one standard deviation increase in judicial claims increases the all-cause mortality rate by between 0.10 and 0.23 standard deviations. Increases in mortality are pervasive across causes, with the largest increase in deaths from certain cancers. They are also pervasive across the age and sex distribution but larger among individuals over the age of fifty and (weakly) among women and the low-income population
    Keywords: Health care, health insurance, mortality, right-to-health, litigation, universalhealth-coverage, Colombia
    JEL: I11 I13 I18 K4
    Date: 2021–08–24
  5. By: Richard Foltyn; Jonna Olsson
    Abstract: Using biennial data from the Health and Retirement Study, we estimate age-dependent health dynamics and survival probabilities at annual frequency conditional on race, sex, and health. The health gradient in life expectancy is steep and persists after controlling for socioeconomic status. Moreover, even conditional on health and socioeconomic status, the racial gap in life expectancy remains large. Simulations show that this gap affects savings rates but does not play a major role in explaining the racial wealth gap. However, differences in mortality imply that black individuals on average can expect to receive 15% less in Social Security benefits in present value terms.
    Keywords: Life expectancy, health dynamics, racial life expectancy gap
    JEL: C23 E21 I14 J14
    Date: 2021–09
  6. By: de Gendre, Alexandra (University of Sydney); Lynch, John (University of Adelaide); Meunier, Aurélie; Pilkington, Rhiannon (University of Adelaide); Schurer, Stefanie (University of Sydney)
    Abstract: We estimate the impact on child health of the unanticipated introduction of the Australian Baby Bonus, a $3,000 one-off unconditional cash transfer at birth. Using regression discontinuity methods and linked administrative data from South Australia, we find that treated babies had fewer preventable, acute, and urgent hospital presentations—medical care available without co-payments—in the first two years of life. The payment later increased demand for elective care, which requires planning, medical referrals, and often co-payments. Our effects are strongest for disadvantaged families. Our findings suggest that up to 34% of the payout were recouped within the first year.
    Keywords: unconditional cash transfers, baby bonus, child health, health care utilization, regression discontinuity design, natural experiment, linked administrative data
    JEL: I14 I38
    Date: 2021–08
  7. By: Antonin Pottier (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Marc Fleurbaey (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Aurélie Méjean (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Stéphane Zuber (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: We develop an integrated assessment model with endogenous population dynamics accouting for the impact of global climate change on mortality through five channels (heat, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, dengue, undernutrition). An age-dependent endogenous mortality rate, which depends linearly on global temperature increase, is introduced and calibrated. We consider three emission scenarios (business-as-usual, 3°C and 2°C scenarios) and find that the five risks induce deaths in the range from 160,000 per annum (in the near term) to almost 350,000 (at the end of the century) in the business-as-annual. We examine the number of life-years lost due to the five selected risks and find figures ranging from 5 to 10 millions annually. These numbers are too low to impact the aggregate dynamics and we do not find significant feedback effects of climate mortality to production, and thus emissions and temperature increase. But we do find interesting evolution patterns. The number of life-years lost is constant (business-as-usual) or decreases over time (3°C and 2°C). For the stabilisation scenarios, we find that the number of life-years lost is higher today than in 2100, due to improvements in generic mortality conditions, the bias of those improvements towards the young, and an ageing population. From that perspective, the present generation is found to bear the brunt of the considered climate change impacts.
    Keywords: Mortality risk,Integrated assessment model,Endogenous population,Impacts,Climate change
    Date: 2020–12–09
  8. By: Drydakis, Nick (Anglia Ruskin University)
    Abstract: The study examines whether adverse working conditions for immigrants in Greece bear an association with deteriorated physical health and increased levels of depression during 2018 and 2019. Findings indicate that workers with no written contract of employment, receiving hourly wages lower than the national hourly minimum wages, and experiencing insults and/or threats in their present job experience worse physical health and increased levels of depression. The study found that the inexistence of workplace contracts, underpayment, and verbal abuse in the workplace may coexist. An increased risk of underpayment and verbal abuse reveals itself when workers do not have a contract of employment and vice versa. Immigrant workers without a job contract might experience a high degree of workplace precariousness and exclusion from health benefits and insurance. Immigrant workers receiving a wage lower than the corresponding minimum potentially do not secure a living income, resulting in unmet needs and low investments in health. Workplace abuse might correspond with vulnerability related to humiliating treatment. These conditions can negatively impact workers' physical health and foster depression. Policies should promote written employment contracts and ensure a mechanism for workers to register violations of fair practices.
    Keywords: adverse working conditions, physical health, depression, immigrants, refugees, minimum wages, written contracts of employment, threats in job, workplace precariousness
    JEL: J81 O15 E24 I14
    Date: 2021–08
  9. By: Drydakis, Nick (Anglia Ruskin University)
    Abstract: In Greece, given the precarious nature of the sex work industry, sex workers health and wellbeing is of concern. However, relevant research remains limited. This study examined whether sex workers' self-reported physical and mental health deteriorated across time points during the economic recession in Athens, Greece. The study focused on 13 areas where off-street and street-based sex work occured. Cross-sectional data was collected from the same areas in 2009 (i.e. before the economic recession began) and in 2013 and 2019 (i.e. at time points during the recession). Self-reported physical and mental health decreased in 2013 and in 2019 compared to 2009. A positive association was found between the country's gross domestic product and sex workers' self-reported physical and mental health. The opposite was found for annual aggregate unemployment. The determinants of better self-reported physical and mental health were sex workers' economic condition, Greek nationality, off-street sex work, and registered sex work status. The opposite was found for more years' involvement in sex work and drug consumption. Findings indicate the need for more inclusive health strategies, especially during periods of economic downturn when sex workers' physical/mental health is likely to decline. This is the first study to investigate the association between economic recession and sex workers' self-reported physical and mental health.
    Keywords: sex work, physical health, mental health, economic recession, drug consumption
    JEL: J81 G01 I10 I12 I18
    Date: 2021–08
  10. By: Karen van Hedel (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Heta Moustgaard; Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Pekka Martikainen (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: Better mental health is observed among women with a partner, children, or employment as compared with women without a partner, children, or employment, respectively. Moreover, women who fulfill all three roles are generally healthier than those with fewer roles. Because of significant changes in work-family life constellations over age, understanding these health differentials requires a life course approach. We linked work-family trajectories to mental health in mid-life for Finnish women using longitudinal registry data. Panel data from an 11% random sample of the population residing in Finland in any year between 1987 and 2007 and followed up until 2013 were used. Work-family combinations were based on partnership status, motherhood status, and employment status. Purchases of prescribed psychotropic medication were used as a measure of mental health. We used sequence analysis to identify 7 distinct groups of women based on their work-family trajectories between ages 20 to 42 years. The associations of typologies of trajectories with mental health at age 43 years were estimated with logistic regression models. Compared to employed mothers with a partner, all other women were more likely to have purchased any psychotropic medication at age 43; especially women without a partner, children or employment and lone mothers had worse mental health. These disadvantages remained after controlling for psychotropic medication purchases earlier in life (to account for potential health selection). Adjusting for age at motherhood did not contribute to the better mental health of employed mothers with a partner. Women combining partnership, motherhood, and employment during early working ages had better mental health later in life than women with other work-family trajectories even after adjusting for mental health earlier in life. Interventions to improve the mental health of women living alone in mid-life, including lone mothers, and individuals without employment, may be needed. Keywords: Work-family life; Mental health; Finland; Life course approach; Sequence analysis; Psychotropic medication use
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2021
  11. By: Paul Fiedler
    Abstract: Literature encompassing economic insecurity and its relationship with mental health has increased significantly in recent years. While the association of job insecurity and mental health has been researched extensively, less is known about the general relationship between economic insecurity and mental health. This paper analyses the simultaneous influence of six different economic insecurity indicators on mental health focusing on private sector employees. Using German longitudinal micro-data and applying a fixed effects model, this paper finds a significant negative relationship between a broad range of economic insecurity factors and mental health. Specifically, the relationship stems from self-perceived risks such as economic anxiety and job insecurity as opposed to macro-economic anxiety or objective factors, such as workforce reductions or substantial income losses. This strongly suggests that subjective measures of economic insecurity matter more for mental health than objective ones. Furthermore, the empirical results are robust with respect to various model specifications. From a policy perspective, this paper calls for improved provision of mental health services and also an increased awareness of mental health problems combined with generally de-tabooing the discussion of mental health.
    Keywords: mental health, economic insecurity, fixed effects, private sector employees, SOEP
    JEL: I14 I31 J01
    Date: 2021
  12. By: Nguyen, Lien; Jokimäki, Hanna; Linnosmaa, Ismo; Saloniki, Eirini Christina; Batchelder, Laurie; Malley, Juliette; Lu, Hui; Burge, Peter; Trukeschitz, Birgit; Forder, Julien
    Abstract: This study developed Finnish preference weights for the seven-attribute Adult Social Care Outcomes Toolkit for carers (ASCOT-Carer) and investigated survey fatigue and learning in best-worst scaling (BWS) experiments. An online survey that included a BWS experiment using the ASCOT-Carer was completed by a sample from the general population in Finland. A block of eight BWS profiles describing different states from the ASCOT-Carer were randomly assigned to each respondent, who consecutively made four choices (best, worst, second best and second worst) per profile. The analysis panel data had 32,160 choices made by 1005 respondents. A scale multinomial logit (S-MNL) model was used to estimate preference weights for 28 ASCOT-Carer attribute levels. Fatigue and learning effects were examined as scale heterogeneity. Several specifications of the generalised MNL model were employed to ensure the stability of the preference estimates. The most and least-valued states were the top and bottom levels of the control over daily life attribute. The preference weights were not on a cardinal scale. We observed the position effect of the attributes on preferences associated with the best or second-best choices. A learning effect was found. The established preference weights can be used in evaluations of the effects of long-term care services and interventions on the quality of life of service users and caregivers. The learning effect implies a need to develop study designs that ensure equal consideration to all profiles (choice tasks) in a sequential choice experiment.
    Keywords: adult Social Care Outcomes Toolkit for carers (ASCOT-Carer); best-worst scaling (BWS); evaluation; informal care; learning and fatigue effects; outcome measurement; quality of life; scale multinomial logit
    JEL: C35 C90 I18 I31 I39
    Date: 2021–09–01
  13. By: Chen, Simiao; Jin, Zhangfeng; Vollmer, Sebastian; Bärnighausen, Till; David E. Bloom
    Abstract: This paper examines the causal impact of diagnostic efficiency on the COVID-19 pandemic in China. Using an instrumental variable approach, we show that a 1-day decrease in the time taken to confirm the first case in a city publicly led to 9.4% and 12.7% reductions in COVID-19 prevalence and mortality over the subsequent six months, respectively. The impact was larger for cities that are farther from the COVID-19 epicenter, are exposed to less migration, have more responsive public health systems, and have higher-capacity utilization of health systems. Social distancing and a less burdened health system are likely underlying mechanisms.
    Keywords: Diagnostic Efficiency,Information Disclosure,Social Distancing,COVID-19,China
    JEL: I18 D83 H75 I12 J61
    Date: 2021
  14. By: Reme, Bjørn-Atle; Wörn, Jonathan; Skirbekk, Vegard
    Abstract: We report on how changes in employment during the COVID-19 pandemic affected mental health using a large Norwegian longitudinal study. In addition to showing a modest increase in symptoms of depression in the full sample, we find a substantially stronger increase in depressive symptoms among those experiencing job loss. We also present evidence on the heterogeneity of the effect across socioeconomic status, and find that while the highest educated men had the lowest risk of job loss, highly educated women experienced the strongest deterioration of mental health following job loss. Last, we investigate the mechanism and find suggestive evidence that economic worries play an important role.
    Date: 2021–09–14
  15. By: Ximeng Fang; Timo Freyer; Chui Yee Ho; Zihua Chen; Lorenz Goette
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic induces a typical social dilemma situation, as engaging in preventive behaviors such as social distancing is costly for individuals, but generates benefits that accrue to society at large. The extent to which individuals internalize the social impact of their actions may depend on their (pro-)social preferences. We leverage a nationally representative survey in Germany (n = 5,843), conducted during the second coronavirus wave, to investigate the role of prosociality in reducing the spread of COVID-19. At the individual level, higher prosociality is strongly positively related to compliance with recommended public health behaviors. At the regional (NUTS-2) level, higher average prosociality is associated with significantly lower incidence and growth rates of COVID-19 infections. This association is robust to controlling for a host of regional socio-economic factors, and mediated by stronger average compliance with public health measures. Our correlational results thus confirm the notion that voluntary behavioral change due to prosocial motivations can play an important role in the pandemic.
    Keywords: COVID-19, collective action, prosociality, economic preferences, online survey
    JEL: D64 I12 I18 H41
    Date: 2021–09
  16. By: Simón A. Rella (Institute of Science and Technology Austria); Yuliya A. Kulikova (Banco de España); Emmanouil T. Dermitzakis (University of Geneva Medical School); Fyodor A. Kondrashov (Institute of Science and Technology Austria)
    Abstract: Vaccines are thought to be the best available solution for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, the emergence of vaccine-resistant strains may come too rapidly for current vaccine developments to alleviate the health, economic and social consequences of the pandemic. To quantify and characterize the risk of such a scenario, we created a SIR-derived model with initial stochastic dynamics of the vaccine-resistant strain to study the probability of its emergence and establishment. Using parameters realistically resembling SARS-CoV-2 transmission, we model a wave-like pattern of the pandemic and consider the impact of the rate of vaccination and the strength of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures on the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. As expected, we found that a fast rate of vaccination decreases the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. Counterintuitively, when a relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions happened at a time when most individuals of the population have already been vaccinated the probability of emergence of a resistant strain was greatly increased. Consequently, we show that a period of transmission reduction close to the end of the vaccination campaign can substantially reduce the probability of resistant strain establishment. These results, therefore, suggest the convenience of maintaining non-pharmaceutical interventions and prevention protocols throughout the entire vaccination period.
    Keywords: SARS-COV-2 transmission, vaccination, vaccine-resistant strains, SIR model, stochastic dynamics
    JEL: C02 I18
    Date: 2021–08
  17. By: Gopal K. Basak; Chandramauli Chakraborty; Pranab Kumar Das
    Abstract: The paper addresses the question of lives versus livelihood in an SIRD model augmented with a macroeconomic structure. The constraints on the availability of health facilities - both infrastructure and health workers determine the probability of receiving treatment which is found to be higher for the patients with severe infection than the patients with mild infection for the specific parametric configuration of the paper. Distinguishing between two types of direct intervention policy - hard lockdown and soft lockdown, the study derives alternative policy options available to the government. The study further indicates that the soft lockdown policy is optimal from a public policy perspective under the specific parametric configuration considered in this paper.
    Date: 2021–09
  18. By: Dongwoo Kim; Young Jun Lee
    Abstract: Vaccination has been perceived as a key to reaching "herd immunity" in the current COVID-19 pandemic. This paper examines effectiveness of different vaccination strategies. We investigate the effects of two key elements in mass vaccination, which are allocations and timing of first and second doses and types of vaccines, on the spread of COVID-19. Amid limited supply of approved vaccines and constrained medical resources, the choice of a vaccination strategy is fundamentally an economic problem. We employ standard time-series and panel data models commonly used in economic research with real world data to estimate the effects of progress in vaccination and types of vaccines on health outcomes. Potential confounders such as government responses and people's behavioral changes are also taken into account. Our findings suggest that the share of people vaccinated with at least one dose is significantly negatively associated with new infections and deaths. Conditioning on first dose progress, full vaccination offers no further reductions in new cases and deaths. For vaccines from China, however, we find weaker effects of vaccination progress on health outcomes. Our results support the extending interval between first and second dose policy adopted by Canada and the UK among others for mRNA-based vaccines. As vaccination progressed, people's mobility increased and it offset the direct effects of vaccination. Therefore, public health measures are still important to contain the transmission by refraining people from being more mobile after vaccinated.
    Date: 2021–09
  19. By: MORIKAWA Masayuki
    Abstract: With COVID-19's continued spread, vaccination is expected to facilitate the recovery of household consumption; however, a high degree of uncertainty exists regarding vaccination's effectiveness in restoring economic activity. Based on an original survey of individuals in July 2021, this study presents evidence about the relationship between vaccination and consumer behavior. According to the results, a relatively large number of respondents intend to increase consumption after the pandemic ends, but not many will increase consumption after receiving the vaccination. No clear association with health status or individual infection risk was detected, but those who used the 2020 GoTo campaign tended to exhibit higher intention to increase consumption after vaccination.
    Date: 2021–09
  20. By: Shockey, James W
    Abstract: This paper explores the factors involved in an individual’s decision to wear a mask, looking also at the relationships among a wider range of actions recommended as part of the CDC’s COVID-19 public health strategy. Using national panel data collected beginning in March 2020, we analyze the interaction among self-reported measures of adherence to public health recommendations, individual perceptions of the effectiveness of mask wearing as a mitigation strategy, and indicators of individual attitudes toward political aspects of coronavirus mitigation. Results from two distinct analytic methods suggest that compliance with protective measures is associated with the belief that the coronavirus presents a real threat to the individual, that the recommended actions are effective at limiting the spread of the virus, and that there is nothing in the social context that discourages the individual from following the guidelines.
    Date: 2021–09–06
  21. By: Christopher F Baum (Boston College; DIW Berlin; CESIS); Miguel Henry (Greylock McKinnon Associates)
    Abstract: In an extension of the standard spatial autoregressive (SAR) model, Aquaro, Bailey and Pesaran (ABP, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2021) introduced a SAR panel model that allows to produce heterogeneous point estimates for each spatial unit. Their methodology has been implemented as the Stata routine hetsar (Belotti, 2021). As the COVID-19 pandemic has evolved in the U.S. since its first outbreak in February 2020 with following resurgences of multiple widespread and severe waves of the pandemic, the level of interactions between geographic units (e.g., states and counties) have differed greatly over time in terms of the prevalence of the disease. Applying ABP’s HETSAR model to 2020 and 2021 COVID-19 data outcomes (confirmed case and death rates) at the state level, we extend our previous spatial econometric analysis (Baum and Henry, 2021) on socioeconomic and demographic factors influencing the spatial spread of COVID-19 confirmed case and death rates in the U.S.A.
    Date: 2021–09–12
  22. By: Pascale Phélinas (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Camille Ciriez (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)
    Abstract: The objective of this work is to explore the perceptions and attitudes of Brazilians towards the COVID-19 epidemic and to determine the factors that explain what leads individuals to comply with the social distancing measures and barrier gestures aimed at controlling the spread of the coronavirus. The results are based on three waves of a survey conducted in 2020 among a representative sample of households. In a context marked by the Brazilian president's repeated statements against prevention policies in the media and social networks, we show that the population's trust in public authorities (medical, scientific, religious policies, etc.) and in particular in the president of the Republic, played an essential role in the population's adherence to measures intended to control the spread of the virus. Compliance with social distancing measures and barrier gestures is more difficult for Brazilians who trust their president. This result confirms the crucial influence of leadership at the highest level of government on behavior, and reinforces the results of studies conducted in other countries.
    Abstract: L'objectif de ce travail est d'explorer les perceptions et attitudes des brésiliens face à l'épidémie de COVID-19 et de déterminer les facteurs de nature à expliquer ce qui conduit les individus à respecter les mesures de distanciation sociale et les gestes barrière indispensables au contrôle de la propagation du coronavirus. Les résultats sont fondés sur trois vagues d'enquête menées en 2020 auprès d'un échantillon représentatif de ménages. Dans un contexte marqué par les prises de position répétées du président Brésilien contre les politiques de prévention dans les médias et réseaux sociaux, nous montrons que la confiance des populations envers les autorités publiques (politiques médicales, scientifiques, religieuses etc) et notamment envers le président de la République, a joué un rôle essentiel dans l'adhésion des populations aux mesures destinées à maîtriser la propagation du virus. Le respect des mesures de distanciation sociale et des gestes barrières est plus difficile pour les Brésiliens qui ont confiance dans leur président. Ce résultat confirme l'influence cruciale du leadership au plus haut niveau du gouvernement sur les comportements, et consolident les résultats d'études menées dans d'autres pays.
    Keywords: Latin america,Brazil,Health policy,Amérique latine,Brésil,Covid-19,Politiques de santé
    Date: 2021–08

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