nep-hea New Economics Papers
on Health Economics
Issue of 2020‒11‒16
twenty-six papers chosen by
Nicolas R. Ziebarth
Cornell University

  1. Valuing Rare Pediatric Drugs: An Economics Perspective By Rena M. Conti; Jonathan Gruber
  2. Machine Predictions and Human Decisions with Variation in Payoffs and Skills By Michael Allan Ribers; Hannes Ullrich
  3. Liquidity Constraints and Demand for Healthcare: Evidence from Danish Welfare Recipients By Frederik Plesner Lyngse
  4. Does Higher Education Reduce Mortality? Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Chile By Bautista, María Angélica; González, Felipe; Martinez, Luis R.; Muñoz, Pablo; Prem, Mounu
  5. What Are the Effects of Expanding Social Pension on Health? Evidence from the Basic Pension in South Korea By Pak, Tae-Young
  6. The Peace Baby Boom: Evidence from Colombia’s peace agreement with FARC By Guerra-Cújar, María Elvira; Prem, Mounu; Rodriguez-Lesmes, Paul; Vargas, Juan F.
  7. Analyzing Matching Patterns in Marriage: Theory and Application to Italian Data By Pierre-André Chiappori; Edoardo Ciscato; Carla Guerriero
  8. Asymmetric information, strategic transfers, and the design of long-term care policies By Canta, Chiara; Cremer, Helmuth
  9. Diagnostic Uncertainty and Insurance Coverage in Credence Goods Markets By Loukas Balafoutas; Helena Fornwagner; Rudolf Kerschbamer; Matthias Sutter; Maryna Tverdostup
  10. Altruism in Blood Donation: Out of Sight, Out of Mind? Closing donation centers influences blood donor lapse By Piersma, Tjeerd W.; Bekkers, Rene; Merz, Eva-Maria; de Kort, Wim
  11. The relationship between social care resources and healthcare utilisation by older people in England:an exploratory investigation By Maria Lucia Pace; Dan Liu; Maria Goddard; Rowena Jacobs; Raphael Wittenberg; Gerard McGonigal; Anne Mason
  12. Socioeconomic burden of mental disorders in Spain 2006-2017 By Alexandrina Stoyanova; Jaime Pinilla Domínguez
  13. Outsurvival as a measure of the inequality of lifespans between two populations By Vaupel, James W; Bergeron-Boucher, Marie-Pier; Kashnitsky, Ilya; Zarulli, Virginia
  14. Family Ties and Child Obesity in Italy By Federico Crudu; Laura Neri; Silvia Tiezzi
  15. When Externalities Collide: Influenza and Pollution By Joshua S. Graff Zivin; Matthew J. Neidell; Nicholas J. Sanders; Gregor Singer
  16. The psychological impact of coronavirus on university students and its socioeconomic determinants in Malaysia By Irfan, Muhammad; Shahudin, Faizah; Hooper, Vincent; Akram, Waqar; Ghani, Rosmaiza
  17. Mental Health and Economic Concerns from March to May during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Canada By Zajacova, Anna; Jehn, Anthony; Stackhouse, Matthew; Choi, Kate H.; Denice, Patrick; Haan, Michael; Ramos, Howard
  18. The Covid-19/SARS-CoV-2 pandemic outbreak, the risk of institutional failures and a coherent health policy By Marcello Basili; Antonio Nicita
  19. On the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the intention to leave the parental home By LUPPI, FRANCESCA; Rosina, Alessandro; Sironi, Emiliano
  20. Tracking the Dynamics and Allocating Tests for COVID-19 in Real-Time: an Acceleration Index with an Application to French Age Groups and Départements By Christelle Baunez; Mickael Degoulet; Stéphane Luchini; Patrick A. Pintus
  21. Burden of disease methods: a guide to calculate COVID-19 disability-adjusted life years By Wyper, Grant Mark Andrew; Assunção, Ricardo MA; Colzani, Edoardo; Grant, Ian; Haasgma, Juanita A; Lagerweij, Giske; Von der Lippe, Elena; McDonald, Scott A; Pires, Sara M; Porst, Michael
  22. Subsidizing the spread of COVID19 : Evidence from the UK’s Eat-Out to-Help-Out scheme By Fetzer, Thiemo
  23. The Geography of Travel Behavior in the Early Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic By Jeffrey Brinkman; Kyle Mangum
  24. The Covid-19 pandemic: theoretical and practical perspectives on children, women and sex trafficking By Simplice A. Asongu; Usman M. Usman
  25. Decoding India’s low Covid-19 case fatality rate By Philip, Minu; Ray, Debraj; Subramanian, S.
  26. Hollywood Survival Strategies in the Post-COVID 19 Era By Johnson, Michael Jr

  1. By: Rena M. Conti; Jonathan Gruber
    Abstract: There is a coming wave of novel genetic therapies aiming to treat rare pediatric disease. A large literature investigates the valuation of new treatments, but the valuation of treatments for rare pediatric illness raises a host of unique issues. In this paper, we review the challenges of applying both the standard economic model and the standard QALY model to this case. We argue that there are a large number of special issues that have only been partially addressed by past work and we conclude that more data and the development of new methods are vital as innovators, health technology assessment practitioners and policymakers confront the launch of these new drugs.
    JEL: I18
    Date: 2020–10
  2. By: Michael Allan Ribers; Hannes Ullrich
    Abstract: Human decision-making differs due to variation in both incentives and available information. This generates substantial challenges for the evaluation of whether and how machine learning predictions can improve decision outcomes. We propose a framework that incorporates machine learning on large-scale administrative data into a choice model featuring heterogeneity in decision maker payoff functions and predictive skill. We apply our framework to the major health policy problem of improving the efficiency in antibiotic prescribing in primary care, one of the leading causes of antibiotic resistance. Our analysis reveals large variation in physicians’ skill to diagnose bacterial infections and in how physicians trade off the externality inherent in antibiotic use against its curative benefit. Counterfactual policy simulations show the combination of machine learning predictions with physician diagnostic skill achieves a 25.4 percent reduction in prescribing.
    Keywords: Prediction policy, expert decision-making, machine learning, antibiotic prescribing
    JEL: C10 C55 I11 I18 Q28
    Date: 2020
  3. By: Frederik Plesner Lyngse
    Abstract: Are low-income individuals relying on government transfers liquidity constrained by the end of the month to a degree that they postpone medical treatment? I investigate this question using Danish administrative data comprising the universe of welfare recipients and the filling of all prescription drugs. I find that on transfer income payday, recipients have a 52% increase in the propensity to fill a prescription. By separating prophylaxis drugs used to treat chronic conditions, where the patient can anticipate the need to fill the prescription, e.g. cholesterol-lowering statins, I find an increase of up to 99% increase on payday. Even for drugs used to treat acute conditions, where timely treatment is essential, I find a 22% increase on payday for antibiotics and a 5-8% decrease in the four days preceding payday. Lastly, exploiting the difference in day the doctor write the prescription and the day the patient fill it, I show that liquidity constraints is the key operating mechanism for postponing antibiotic treatment.
    Date: 2020–10
  4. By: Bautista, María Angélica; González, Felipe; Martinez, Luis R.; Muñoz, Pablo; Prem, Mounu
    Abstract: We exploit the sharp downward kink in college enrollment experienced by cohorts reaching college age after the 1973 military coup in Chile to study the causal effect of higher education on mortality. Using micro-data from the vital statistics for 1994-2017, we document an upward kink in the age-adjusted yearly mortality rate among the affected cohorts. Leveraging the kink in college enrollment, we estimate a negative effect of college on mortality, which is larger for men, but also sizable for women. Intermediate labor market outcomes (e.g., labor force participation) explain 30% of the reduction in mortality. A similar upward kink in mortality over multiple time horizons is also present among hospitalized patients in the affected cohorts, with observable characteristics (i.e. diagnostic, hospital, insurance) explaining over 40%. Survey responses reveal that college substantially improves access to private health care, but has mixed effects on health behaviors.
    Date: 2020–10–24
  5. By: Pak, Tae-Young
    Abstract: Non-contributory social pension has been widely used to provide minimum income support for disadvantaged seniors. Despite its efficacy in reducing old-age poverty, only a few studies systematically assessed whether the benefits of social pension extend to health outcomes. In this paper, we exploit a reform to the South Korean social pension in 2014 to provide evidence on the health effects of expanding social pension. Using data from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging, we estimate a series of difference-in-differences models that compare changes in health of individuals age-eligible for the social pension (age ≥ 65) to those younger than the minimum qualification age (age
    Keywords: old-age poverty; non-contributory pension; depression; financial satisfaction; South Korea
    JEL: H5 I31 I38 J14
    Date: 2020–04–07
  6. By: Guerra-Cújar, María Elvira; Prem, Mounu; Rodriguez-Lesmes, Paul; Vargas, Juan F.
    Abstract: Violent environments are known to affect household fertility choices, demand for health services and health outcomes of newborns. Using administrative data with a difference-in- differences, we study how the end of the 50 years old Colombian conflict with FARC modified such decisions and outcomes in traditionally affected areas of the country. Results indicate that generalised reductions in total fertility rate were slowed down for municipalities traditionally affected by conflict as a result of the permanent ceasefire declared by the FARC insurgency. Total fertility rate observed a relative increase of 2.6% in the formerly conflict-affected areas, in all age groups. However, no impact was found for demand of health care services, neonatal and infant mortality rates, or birth outcomes such as the incidence of low weight at birth or the percentage of preterm births. Our evidence shows that municipalities with mines victims and expelled population by forced displacement before the ceasefire have significantly higher total fertility rate in the four years following the ceasefire. We argue that the mechanism behind this result is the optimism to raise the children in a better environment due to the reduction in victimisation in areas that experience FARC violence.
    Date: 2020–10–22
  7. By: Pierre-André Chiappori (Columbia University); Edoardo Ciscato (KU Leuven); Carla Guerriero (University of Naples Federico II)
    Abstract: Social scientists have long been interested in marital homogamy and its relationship with inequality. Yet, measuring homogamy is not straightforward, particularly when we are interested in studying sorting on multiple traits. In this paper, we compare different statistical methods that have been used in the demographic, sociological and economic literature. We show that Separate Extreme Value (SEV) models not only generate a matching function with several desirable theoretical properties, but they are also particularly suited for the study of multidimensional sorting. We use small-scale survey data to study sorting among parents of children attending schools in Naples. Our findings show that homogamy is pervasive: not only men and women sort on age, education, height and physical characteristics, but they also look for partners that share similar health-related behavioral traits and risk attitude. We also show that marital patterns are well explained by a low number of dimensions, the most important being human capital. Moreover, children of parents with a high human capital endowment perform better at school, although they report lower levels of subjective well-being and perceived quality of relationship with their parents.
    Keywords: homogamy, matching, intergenerational inequality
    JEL: J12 C78 J62
    Date: 2020–11
  8. By: Canta, Chiara; Cremer, Helmuth
    Abstract: We study the design of social long-term care (LTC) insurance when informal care is exchange-based. Parents do not observe their children's cost of providing care, which is continuously distributed over some interval. They choose a rule specifying transfers that are conditional on the level of informal care. Social LTC insurance is designed to maximize a weighted sum of parents' and children's utility. The optimal uniform public LTC insurance can fully cover the risk of dependence but parents continue to bear the risk of having children with a high cost of providing care. A nonlinear policy conditioning LTC benets on transfers provides full insurance even for this risk. Informal care increases with the children's welfare weight. Our theoretical analysis is completed by numerical solutions based on a calibrated example. In the uniform case, public care should represent up to 40% of total care but its share decreases to about 30% as the weight of children increases. In the nonlinear case, public care increases with the children's cost of providing care at a faster rate when children's weight in social welfare is higher. It represents 100% of total care for the families with high-cost children.
    Keywords: Long-term care; informal care; strategic bequests; asymmetric information
    JEL: H2 H5
    Date: 2020–11–02
  9. By: Loukas Balafoutas (University of Innsbruck, Austria); Helena Fornwagner (University of Regensburg, Germany); Rudolf Kerschbamer (University of Innsbruck, Austria); Matthias Sutter (University of Innsbruck, Austria; Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, IZA Bonn and CESifo Munich, Germany; University of Cologne, Germany); Maryna Tverdostup (University of Innsbruck, Austria)
    Abstract: Credence goods markets – like for health care or repair services – with their informational asymmetries between sellers and customers are prone to fraudulent behavior of sellers and resulting market inefficiencies. We present the first model that considers both diagnostic uncertainty of sellers and the effects of insurance coverage of consumers in a unified framework. We test the model’s predictions in a laboratory experiment. Both in theory and in the experiment diagnostic uncertainty decreases the rate of efficient service provision and leads to less trade. In theory, insurance also decreases the rate of efficient service provision, but at the same time it also increases the volume of trade, leading to an ambiguous net effect on welfare. In the experiment, the net effect of insurance coverage on efficiency turns out to be positive. We also uncover an important interaction effect: if consumers are insured, experts invest less in diagnostic precision. We discuss policy implications of our results.
    Keywords: Credence goods, diagnostic uncertainty, insurance coverage, welfare, model, experiment
    JEL: C91 C72 D82 G22
    Date: 2020–11
  10. By: Piersma, Tjeerd W. (WODC (Research and Documentation Centre)); Bekkers, Rene (VU Amsterdam); Merz, Eva-Maria; de Kort, Wim
    Abstract: In this paper, we use register data on all blood donors (n = 259,172) and changes in geographical locations of blood donation centers in the Netherlands over the past decade, to examine the strength of altruistic motivations in blood donation by testing how blood donor behavior changes after the cost of donating in the form of time and inconvenience increases. We examined whether closing donation centers influences blood donor lapse, and whether the risk for lapse varies between donors with different blood groups. A lower lapsing risk for donors with universal, O-negative blood as costs increase is considered as evidence of altruism: continued efforts in making a societal impact despite the increased time commitment would indicate altruism in donor behavior. In the total sample, 137,172 (52.9%) donors lapsed at least once. We found a very strong effect of changes in the distance to the nearest collection point on donor lapse. Donors whose nearest donation center closed were 53% more likely to lapse than donors whose donation center remained open, with the risk for donor lapse increasing with each extra kilometer distance to the new nearest donation center. While O-negative donors were 10.5% less likely to lapse after closing a donation center compared to donors with other blood groups, the effect of closing was similar across blood groups. Based on these results, we conclude that blood donors are clearly sensitive to cost changes imposed by blood banks and that they are not particularly motivated by altruistic concerns. Future studies are recommended to further examine the role of contextual factors in motivational change across the blood donor career. Blood banks are advised to strategically place donation centers throughout the country to promote blood donations, and design interventions to reduce donation barriers after changing their donation centers’ locations.
    Date: 2020–10–27
  11. By: Maria Lucia Pace (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Rome, Italy); Dan Liu (Centre for Health Economics Research and Evaluation (CHERE), University of Technology, Sydney, NSW, Australia); Maria Goddard (Centre for Health Economics, University of York, York, UK); Rowena Jacobs (Centre for Health Economics, University of York, York, UK); Raphael Wittenberg (London School of Economics and Political Science, UK); Gerard McGonigal (Department of Medicine for the Elderly, York Teaching Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, York, UK); Anne Mason (Centre for Health Economics, University of York, UK)
    Abstract: Background. Since 2010, adult social care spending has fallen significantly in real terms whilst demand has risen. Reductions in local authority (LA) budgets are expected to have had spill over effects on the demand for healthcare in the English NHS. Motivation. If older people, including those with dementia, have unmet needs for social care, their use of healthcare may increase. Methods. We assembled a panel dataset of 150 LAs, aggregating individual-level data where appropriate. We tested the impact of changes in LA social care resources, which was measured in two ways: expenditure and workforce. The effects on people aged 65+ were assessed on five outcomes
    Keywords: Social care, Healthcare, Dementia, Local authority, Cost Shifting
    Date: 2020–11
  12. By: Alexandrina Stoyanova (Universitat de Barcelona); Jaime Pinilla Domínguez (Universidad de las Palmas de Gran Canarias)
    Abstract: Mental health is not only the lack of mental disorders but is considered a crucial resource for overall health and well-being (including employment and productivity). The current paper tries to shed some light on the evolution of mental well-being over a period of 15 years, including the years before, during and after the most recent economic downturn. We use data coming from the Spanish National Health Surveys of 2006/2007, 2011/2012 and 2016/2017. Mental health is proxied by two measures, doctor-diagnosed mental disorder and psychological distress (based on GHQ-12). To account for the causal relationship between the two mental health indicators, we estimate a bivariate probit model. We observe different patterns of the two mental health indicators over time. Psychological distress increased during recession years, due to major risk factors as unemployment and loss of socioeconomic status. Even though the need for mental healthcare increased during the recession, the fact that fewer people were diagnosed suggests that barriers to access to mental healthcare may be aggravated during the crisis.
    Keywords: Mental health, psychological distress, economic crisis, bivariate probit, Spain.
    JEL: I10 I14 I18
    Date: 2019
  13. By: Vaupel, James W; Bergeron-Boucher, Marie-Pier; Kashnitsky, Ilya (Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute); Zarulli, Virginia
    Abstract: Background: Inequality in lifespans between two populations, e.g., males and females or people with low and high SES, is a focus of demographic, economic and sociological research and of public policy analysis. Inequality is usually measured by differences in life expectancy. Analysis of the overlap of lifespan distributions can also be informative. Objective: To devise a cogent measure of how much distributions of lifespans differ between two populations. Results: We propose an outsurvival statistic, φ, that measures the probability that an individual from a population with low life expectancy will live longer than an individual from a population with high life expectancy. Contribution: Our new measure complements life expectancy to provide a more nuanced view of the inequality of lifespans between two populations.
    Date: 2020–10–18
  14. By: Federico Crudu; Laura Neri; Silvia Tiezzi
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of overweight family members on weight outcomes of Italian children aged 6 to 14 years. We use an original dataset matching the 2012 cross sections of the Italian Multipurpose Household Survey and the House hold Budget Survey. Since the identification of within-family peer effects is known to be challenging, we implement our analysis on a partially identified model using inferential procedures recently introduced in the literature and based on standard Bayesian computation methods. We find evidence of a strong, positive effect of both overweight peer children in the family and of overweight adults on children weight outcomes. The impact of overweight peer children in the household is larger than the impact of adults. In particular, the estimated confidence sets associated to the peer children variable is positive with upper bound around one or larger, while the confidence sets for the parameter associated to obese adults often include zero and have upper bound that rarely is larger than one.
    Keywords: child obesity; confidence sets; partial identification; peer effects within the family
    JEL: I12 C15 C21 C35
    Date: 2020–10
  15. By: Joshua S. Graff Zivin; Matthew J. Neidell; Nicholas J. Sanders; Gregor Singer
    Abstract: Influenza and air pollution are significant public health risks with large economic consequences shared across the globe. The common etiological pathways through which they harm health present an interesting case of compounding risk via interacting externalities. Using regional and temporal variation in pollution and disease transmission, we find exposure to more air pollution significantly increases influenza hospitalizations. By exploiting the random deviations in influenza vaccine effectiveness over time, we show high influenza vaccine effectiveness neutralizes this relationship. This suggests seemingly disparate policy actions of pollution control and expanded vaccination provide greater returns than found when studied in isolation.
    JEL: H23 I12 Q53
    Date: 2020–10
  16. By: Irfan, Muhammad; Shahudin, Faizah; Hooper, Vincent; Akram, Waqar; Ghani, Rosmaiza
    Abstract: This article examines the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) upon university students’ anxiety level and finds the factors associated with the anxiety disorder in Malaysia. We collected data from 958 students from 16 different universities using an originally designed questionnaire. The Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale 7-item (GAD-7) was used to estimate the anxiety. We find that 12.3% students were normal, whereas 30.5% were experiencing mild, 31.1% moderate, and 26.1% severe anxiety. Surprisingly, only 37.2% of students were aware of mental health support which was provided by their universities. Moreover, it was found that gender as male (Odds Ratio (OR= 0.798, 95% Confidence Interval (CI)= 0.61 - 1.04)) and having internet access (OR = 0.44, 95% CI= 0.24 - 0.80) were alleviating factors for the anxiety. Whereas, age above than 20 years (OR= 1.30, 95% CI= 0.96 - 1.75), ethnicity Chinese (OR=1.72, 95% CI= 0.95 - 3.1), any other disease (OR=2.0, 95% CI=1.44 - 2.79), decreased family income (OR=1.71, 95% CI=1.34 - 2.17), more time spent on watching COVID-19 related news (OR=1.52, 95% CI=1.17 -1.97), and infected relative or friends (OR=1.62, 95% CI=1.06 - 2.50) were risk factors for anxiety among students. We suggest that the government of Malaysia should monitor the mental health of the universities’ students more closely and universities should open online mental health support clinics to avoid the adverse impacts of the anxiety disorder.
    Keywords: Covid-19, Anxiety, GAD7, online Learning.
    JEL: I0
    Date: 2020–10–01
  17. By: Zajacova, Anna; Jehn, Anthony; Stackhouse, Matthew; Choi, Kate H.; Denice, Patrick; Haan, Michael; Ramos, Howard
    Abstract: Background The COVID-19 pandemic impacted the psychological wellbeing of populations worldwide. In this study, we assess changes in mental health during the early months of the pandemic in Canada and examine its relationship with another prominent problem during this time, economic concerns. Methods Analyses were based on two nationally representative cross-sectional surveys from the Canadian Perspectives Survey Series (N=4,627 in March and 4,600 in May). We described the changes in mental health and economic concerns between March and May, and assessed the relationship between the two characteristics. Results Mental health declined significantly during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic: the proportion of Canadian adults who reported only good/fair/poor mental health grew from 46% to 52% from March to May. Economic concerns including food insecurity were an important correlate of ‘bad’ mental health, as was younger age, female gender, and Canada-born status. Contrary to expectations, however, economic concerns lessened during this time frame. Conclusions These findings suggest that policies to mitigate economic stress, such as Canada’s Emergency Response Benefit, may have eased mental health deterioration in early pandemic months through a reduction in financial hardship. Interventions to increase the economic security of the population will have far-reaching consequences in terms of improved mental health, and should be continued throughout the pandemic.
    Date: 2020–10–18
  18. By: Marcello Basili; Antonio Nicita
    Abstract: The new coronavirus CoVid-19 (SARS-Cov-2) pandemic outbreak all around theWorld puts in evidence how institutional failures may end up in a catastrophic event. The precautionary principle (PP) has been proposed as the proper guide for the decision-making criteria to be adopted in the face of the new catastrophic risks that have arisen in the decades of this century. Unfortunately the political institutions at the national and supranational level, such as the European Union Commission, seem having neglected it opening the scenario of a lethal global pandemic that could cause millions of deaths. According to scientists and health authorities human beings are facing the high probable nightmare of a very aggressive and mortal pandemic, worst than the Spanish flu (1918-1919) the most famous recombined avian flu killed millions, without targeted therapeutics for treatment and vaccines. The paper sets a robust and precautionary formal decision rule that could be considered a guide for policymakers and illustrates its use in the case of likely second wave of SARS-COV-2 in Europe.
    JEL: D81
    Date: 2020–08
  19. By: LUPPI, FRANCESCA; Rosina, Alessandro (Catholic University of the Sacred Heart); Sironi, Emiliano
    Abstract: With the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic all over Europe during the first months of 2020, most of the European governments imposed restrictive measures to people mobility and physical distance (the lockdown), which severely impacted on the economic activities and performance of many countries. Thus, the health emergency turned rapidly into in an economic crisis. The Covid-19 crisis in Europe increased the uncertainty about the economic recovery and the end of the health emergency. This situation is supposed to have conditioned individuals’ life course path with the effect of inducing people to postpone or to abandon many life plans. This paper aims to explore whether the rise of health emergency due to the Covid-19 has delayed or vanished young people intention to leave the parental home during the 2020 in five European countries: Italy, Germany, France, Spain and UK. Using data from an international survey from the “Youth Project”, carried out by the Toniolo Institute of Advanced Studies, this paper implements ordered logistic models in order to investigate the determinants of a possible revision of the choice of leaving the parental home for a representative sample of 6,000 respondents aged 18 to 34, interviewed between March and April 2020. A special focus has been pointed on the Italian case, because of being the first European country to be strongly hit by the pandemic and because of the already economic vulnerable conditions of its young population. Results reports that Italy is the country with the highest rate of downward revisions of the intentions of leaving the nest. In particular, having negative expectations about changes in the individual’s and family’s future income is a key predictor of the choice of abandoning the purpose of leaving the parental home across Europe. However, the vulnerability of the category of temporary workers arises especially in Italy: young people with precarious jobs seems to be the most prone to negatively revise their intentions of leaving, even compared with those not working.
    Date: 2020–11–05
  20. By: Christelle Baunez (Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, Institut Neurosciences Timone); Mickael Degoulet (Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, Institut Neurosciences Timone); Stéphane Luchini (Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France.); Patrick A. Pintus (Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France.)
    Abstract: An acceleration index is proposed as a novel indicator to track the dynamics of the COVID-19 in real-time. Using French data on cases and tests for the period following the first lock-down-from May 13, 2020, onwards-our acceleration index shows that the ongoing pandemic resurgence can be dated to begin around July 7. It uncovers that the pandemic acceleration has been stronger than national average for the [59 − 68] and [69 − 78] age groups since early September, the latter being associated with the strongest acceleration index, as of October 25. In contrast, acceleration among the [19 − 28] age group is the lowest and is about half that of the [69 − 78], as of October 25. In addition, we propose an algorithm to allocate tests among French départements, based on both the acceleration index and the feedback effect of testing. Our acceleration-based allocation differs from the actual distribution over French territories, which is population-based. We argue that both our acceleration index and our allocation algorithm are useful tools to guide public health policies as France enters a second lock-down period with indeterminate duration.
    Keywords: COVID-19; indicator of epidemic dynamics; acceleration Index; real-time Analysis; sub-national allocation of tests; France
    JEL: I18 H12
    Date: 2020–11
  21. By: Wyper, Grant Mark Andrew; Assunção, Ricardo MA; Colzani, Edoardo; Grant, Ian; Haasgma, Juanita A; Lagerweij, Giske; Von der Lippe, Elena; McDonald, Scott A; Pires, Sara M; Porst, Michael
    Abstract: Our paper provides a step-by-step guide to define COVID-19 as a cause of disease burden, which can be used to calculate DALYs. Additionally, we suggest pragmatic data inputs, reflecting the availability and quality of data inputs will vary by country. As our paper provides suggestions for different solutions, we recommend that users should be clear about their methodological choices to aid comparisons and knowledge translation.
    Date: 2020–10–18
  22. By: Fetzer, Thiemo (University of Warwick)
    Abstract: This paper documents that a large-scale government subsidy aimed at encouraging people to eat out in restaurants in the wake of the first 2020 COVID19 wave in the United Kingdom has had a large causal impact in accelerating the subsequent second COVID19 wave. The scheme subsidized 50% off the cost of food and non-alcoholic drinks for an unlimited number of visits in participating restaurants on Mondays-Wednesdays from August 3 to August 31, 2020. Areas with higher take-up saw both, a notable increase in new COVID19 infection clusters within a week of the scheme starting, and again, a deceleration in infections within two weeks of the program ending. Areas that exhibit notable rainfall during the prime lunch and dinner hours on days the scheme was active record lower infection incidence – a pattern that is also measurable in mobility data – and non-detectable on days during which the discount was not available or for rainfall outside the core lunch and dinner hours. A back of the envelope calculation suggests that the program is accountable for between 8 to 17 percent of all new local infection clusters during that time period.
    Keywords: health ; externalities ; coronavirus ; subsidies ; consumer spending
    Date: 2020
  23. By: Jeffrey Brinkman; Kyle Mangum
    Abstract: We use a panel of county-level location data derived from cellular devices in the U.S. to track travel behavior and its relationship with COVID-19 cases in the early stages of the outbreak. We find that travel activity dropped significantly as case counts rose locally. People traveled less overall, and they specifically avoided areas with relatively larger outbreaks, independent of government restrictions on mobility. The drop in activity limited exposure to out-of-county virus cases, which we show was important because such case exposure generated new cases inside a county. This suggests the outbreak would have spread faster and to a greater degree had travel activity not dropped accordingly. Our findings imply that the scale and geographic network of travel activity and the travel response of individuals are important for understanding the spread of COVID-19 and for policies that seek to control it.
    Keywords: travel behavior; mobility; COVID-19 pandemic; spatial dynamics; spacial networks; cellular device location
    JEL: R11 I18 H11
    Date: 2020–09–28
  24. By: Simplice A. Asongu (Yaounde, Cameroon); Usman M. Usman (University of Malaya, Malaysia)
    Abstract: We provide theoretical and practical perspectives on children, women, and sex trafficking during the Covid-19 pandemic. Process tracing is employed as a primary research instrument. It is an analytical technique used for either theory-building or theory-testing purposes that is employed to elucidate causation and change as well as to develop and evaluate extant theories in social sciences. We illustrate that a policy is needed that will strengthen the capacity of existing structures in the fight against the underlying trafficking so that these attendant structures are efficiently used to stop the trafficking and avoid the corresponding threats to public health safety.
    Keywords: Coronavirus, pandemic, human trafficking, girls and women, feminism
    Date: 2020–01
  25. By: Philip, Minu (New York University); Ray, Debraj (New York University and University of Warwick); Subramanian, S. (Independent researcher)
    Abstract: India’s case fatality rate (CFR) under covid-19 is strikingly low, with a current level of around 1.7%. The world average rate is far higher. Several observers have noted that this difference is at least partly due to India’s younger age distribution. We use age-specific fatality rates from 17 comparison countries, coupled with India’s distribution of covid-19 cases, to “predict" India’s CFR. In most cases, those predictions yield even lower numbers, suggesting that India’s CFR is, if anything, too high rather than too low. We supplement the analysis with a decomposition exercise, and we additionally account for time lags between case incidence and death for a more relevant perspective under a growing pandemic. Our exercise underscores the importance of careful measurement and interpretation of the data, and emphasizes the dangers of a misplaced complacency that could arise from an exclusive concern with aggregate statistics such as the CFR.
    Date: 2020
  26. By: Johnson, Michael Jr (California State University Northridge)
    Abstract: Since the arrival of the Coronavirus in the United States, Americans have been forced to quarantine themselves at home in dramatic fashion, unlike almost any other time in the nation’s history. Moreover, the American workforce has been equally impacted by virtue of state-imposed shutdowns that have affected innumerable businesses, including the Hollywood entertainment industry, which is the subject of this research. I examine how commercial entertainment conglomerates like AT&T, Comcast, Disney, ViacomCBS, and Fox have responded to mandatory closures for businesses that employ a human workforce upon whom they rely for their labor, and to human consumers they seek to distribute their film and television commodities to for profit . Using textual and discourse analyses in a political economic theoretical framework, I review contemporary reports about the economic conditions which have influenced the industry’s technological adaptation and innovation and argue that the Hollywood television and film industries will capitalize upon this current public health crisis as a motivator to adopt streaming platforms as the new preferred distribution mechanism of entertainment long after COVID 19 is a memory. This qualitative research examines the technological adaptations employed by these entertainment conglomerates to analyze (1) how the transition to streaming video on demand has occurred, and evaluates (2) what the adoption of these survival strategies mean for Hollywood’s long-term economic future and survival in a “digitally competitive” (Smith and Telang 2017) marketplace.
    Date: 2020–11–05

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