nep-hea New Economics Papers
on Health Economics
Issue of 2020‒08‒24
sixty-four papers chosen by
Nicolas R. Ziebarth
Cornell University

  1. Do doctors improve the health care of their parents? Evidence from admission lotteries By Artmann, Elisabeth; Oosterbeek, Hessel; van der Klaauw, Bas
  2. Voting and Political Participation in the Aftermath of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic By Hani Mansour; Daniel I. Rees; James Reeves
  3. Cream skimming by health care providers and inequality in health care access: Evidence from a randomized field experiment By Werbeck, Anna; Wübker, Ansgar; Ziebarth, Nicolas R.
  4. Who bears the burden of universal health coverage? An assessment of alternative financing policies using an overlapping-generations general equilibrium model By Mohammad Abu-Zaineh; Sameera Awawda; Bruno Ventelou
  5. Does later retirement change your healthcare consumption ? Evidence from France By Elsa Perdrix
  6. Has Mortality Risen Disproportionately for the Least Educated? By Adam Leive; Christopher J. Ruhm
  7. The causal effect of education on chronic health conditions in the UK By Janke, Katharina; Johnston, David; Propper, Carol; Shields, Michael
  8. Legal Drinking, Injury and Harm: Evidence from the Introduction and Modifications of Age Limits in Denmark By Datta Gupta, Nabanita; Nilsson, Anton
  9. Framing and signalling effects of taxes on sugary drinks: a discrete choice experiment among households in Great Britain By Cornelsen, Laura; Quaife, Matthew; Lagarde, Mylene; Smith, Richard D.
  10. School Tracking and Mental Health By Bôckerman, Rikhard Petri; Haapanen, Mika; Jepsen, Christopher; Roulet, Alexandra
  11. The Shared Non-cognitive Roots of Health and Socioeconomic Status: Evidence from the US By Alessandro Bucciol; Chiara Coriele; Luca Zarri
  12. Childhood Circumstances and Health Inequality in Old Age: Comparative Evidence from China and the United States By Chen, Xi; Yan, Binjian; Gill, Thomas M.
  13. Inequality of Opportunity in Bodyweight among Middle-Aged and Older Chinese: A Distributional Approach By Nie, Peng; Ding, Lanlin; Jones, Andrew M.
  14. Grandparenting and well-being of the elderly in China By Wang, Hao; Fidrmuc, Jan; Luo, Qi
  15. Linking Changes in Inequality in Life Expectancy and Mortality: Evidence from Denmark and the United States By Gordon B. Dahl; Claus Thustrup Kreiner; Torben Helen Nielsen; Benjamin Ly Serena
  16. Invitations, Incentives, and Conditions : A Randomized Evaluation of Demand-Side Interventions for Health Screenings in Armenia By De Walque,Damien B. C. M.; Chukwuma,Adanna Deborah Ugochi; Ayivi Guedehoussou,Nono Akpedje; Koshkakaryan,Marianna
  17. Product line extensions under the threat of entry: evidence from the UK pharmaceuticals market By Farasat A.S. Bokhari; Weijie Yan
  18. Market concentration, supply, quality and prices paid by Local Authorities in the English care home market By Ferran Espuny Pujol; Ruth Hancock; Morten Hviid; Marcello Morciano; Stephen Pudney
  19. Welfare States, Labor Markets, Social Investment and the Digital Transformation By Eichhorst, Werner; Hemerijck, Anton; Scalise, Gemma
  20. Climate Change and Diet By Bose, Neha; Hills, Thomas; Sgroi, Daniel
  21. Dominant Resource Fairness with Meta-Types By Steven Yin; Shatian Wang; Lingyi Zhang; Christian Kroer
  22. A Literature Review of the Economics of COVID-19 By Brodeur, Abel; Gray, David; Islam, Anik; Bhuiyan, Suraiya Jabeen
  23. Mass Gatherings Contributed to Early COVID-19 Mortality: Evidence from US Sports* By Alexander Ahammer; Martin Halla; Mario Lackner
  24. Nursing Home Staff Networks and COVID-19 By M. Keith Chen; Judith A. Chevalier; Elisa F. Long
  25. A Case for Social Distancing in Developing Countries By Ammar Rashid
  26. COVID-19 in Italy: Remedies to Reduce the Infections and Deaths By Mohajan, Haradhan
  27. Social capital and the spread of Covid-19: Insights from European countries By Alina Kristin Bartscher; Sebastian Seitz; Sebastian Siegloch; Michaela Slotwinski; Nils Wehrhöfer
  28. Undergraduate and Graduate Students’ Mental Health During the COVID-19 Pandemic By Chirikov, Igor; Soria, Krista M; Horgos, Bonnie; Jones-White, Daniel
  29. Assessing the Age Specificity of Infection Fatality Rates for COVID-19: Meta-Analysis & Public Policy Implications By Andrew T. Levin; Kensington B. Cochran; Seamus P. Walsh
  30. Local mortality estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy By Augusto Cerqua; Roberta Di Stefano; Marco Letta; Sara Miccoli
  31. Place-specific lockdown? A tentative analysis of the Italian case By Dipasquale, Daniela; Torrisi, Gianpiero
  32. Intelligent lockdown, intelligent effects? The impact of the Dutch COVID-19 ‘intelligent lockdown’ on gendered work and family dynamics among parents By Yerkes, Mara A.; André, Stéfanie; Beckers, Debby G. J.; Besamusca, Janna; Kruyen, Peter Mathieu; Remery, Chantal; van der Zwan, Roos; Geurts, Sabine
  33. Global Mortality Benefits of COVID-19 Action By Yoo, Sunbin; Managi, Shusuke
  34. Women's Work, Housework and Childcare, before and during COVID-19 By Del Boca, Daniela; Oggero, Noemi; Profeta, Paola; Rossi, Maria Cristina
  35. Medicare and Financial Health across the United States By Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham; Maxim L. Pinkovskiy; Jacob Wallace
  36. The Geography of the Effectiveness and Consequences of Covid-19 Measures: Global Evidence By Simplice A. Asongu; Samba Diop; Joseph Nnanna
  37. Healthcare equity and COVID-19: Assessing the relative effectiveness of egalitarian governance and healthcare system capacity on the COVID-19 pandemic By Krishna Chaitanya Vadlamannati; Arusha Cooray; Indra de Soysa
  38. ECB-BASIR: a primer on the macroeconomic implications of the Covid-19 pandemic By Angelini, Elena; Darracq Pariès, Matthieu; Zimic, Srečko; Damjanović, Milan
  39. Do Class Size Reductions Protect Students from Infectious Disease? Lessons for COVID-19 Policy from Flu Epidemic in Tokyo Metropolitan Area By Oikawa, Masato; Tanaka, Ryuichi; Bessho, Shun-ichiro; Noguchi, Haruko
  40. Exploring excess of deaths in the context of covid pandemic in selected countries of Latin America By Lima, Everton; Vilela, Estevão; Peralta, Andrés; Rocha, Marília Gabriela; Queiroz, Bernardo L; Gonzaga, Marcos Roberto; Freire, Flávio; Piscoya, Mario
  41. “A Global City in a Global Pandemic: Assessing the Ongoing Impact of COVID Induced Trends on London’s Economic Sectors” By Anderson, Dylan; Hesketh, Rachel; Kleinman, Mark; Portes, Jonathan
  42. The Effect of COVID-19 Lockdown on Mobility and Traffic Accidents: Evidence from Louisiana By Barnes, Stephen R.; Beland, Louis-Philippe; Huh, Jason; Kim, Dongwoo
  43. Global City in a Global Pandemic: Assessing the Ongoing Impact of COVID Induced Trends on London’s Economic Sectors By Anderson, Dylan; Hesketh, Rachel; Kleinman, Mark; Portes, Jonathan
  44. Wie gefährlich ist COVID-19? Die subjektive Risikoeinschätzung einer lebensbedrohlichen COVID-19-Erkrankung im Frühjahr und Frühsommer 2020 in Deutschland By Ralph Hertwig; Stefan Liebig; Ulman Lindenberger; Gert G. Wagner
  45. COVID-19, Race, and Redlining By Bertocchi, Graziella; Dimico, Arcangelo
  46. The toll of voting in a pandemic: Municipal elections and the spread of COVID-19 in Bavaria* By Jochen Güntner
  47. Lives and livelihoods: estimates of the global mortality and poverty effects of the Covid-19 pandemic By Decerf, Benoit; Ferreira, Francisco H. G.; Mahler, Daniel G.; Sterck, Olivier
  48. A Poorly Understood Disease? The Unequal Distribution of Excess Mortality Due to COVID-19 Across French Municipalities By Paul Brandily; Clément Brébion; Simon Briole; Laura Khoury
  49. Women's Work, Housework and Childcare, before and during COVID-19 By Daniela Del Boca; Noemi Oggero; Paola Profeta; Maria Cristina Rossi
  50. The strategic use of nudging and behavioural approaches in public health policy during the coronavirus crisis By Michalek, Gabriela; Schwarze, Reimund
  51. Mathematical Modelling for Infectious Viral Disease: the Covid-19 Perspective By Hafeez A. Adekola; Ibrahim A. Adekunle; Haneefat O. Egberongbe; Sefiu A. Onitilo; Idris N. Abdullahi
  52. Gauging the Laboratory Responses to Coronavirus Disease (Covid-19) in Africa By Festus A. Odeyemi; Ibrahim A. Adekunle; Olakitan W. Ogunbanjo; Jamiu B. Folorunso; Thompson Akinbolaji; Idowu B. Olawoye
  53. Short-term responses to nudge-based messages for preventing the spread of COVID-19 infection: Intention, behavior, and life satisfaction By Shusaku Sasaki; Hirofumi Kurokawa; Fumio Ohtake
  54. Does stringency of lockdown affect air quality? Evidence from Indian cities By Surender Kumar; Shunsuke Managi
  55. The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Demand for Density: Evidence from the U.S. Housing Market By Liu, Sitian; Su, Yichen
  56. Weather, Social Distancing, and the Spread of COVID-19 By Daniel J. Wilson
  57. Working at Home in Greece: Unexplored Potential at Times of Social Distancing? By Pouliakas, Konstantinos
  58. Social capital may mediate the relationship between social distance and COVID-19 prevalence By Keisuke Kokubun
  59. The Main Street Lending Program and Other Federal Reserve Actions By Eric S. Rosengren
  60. The Saga of the Covid-19 Contact Tracing Apps: Lessons for Data Governance By Maria Savona
  61. Addressing the Economic Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic By Eric S. Rosengren
  62. What Policies Address Both the Coronavirus Crisis and the Climate Crisis? By Gustav Engström; Johan Gars; Niko Jaakkola; Therese Lindahl; Daniel Spiro; Arthur A. van Benthem
  63. Severity of the Covid-19 Pandemic in India The Case of 3 States: Maharashtra, Jharkhand & Meghalaya By Nidhi KAICKER; Katsushi S. IMAI; Raghav GAIHA
  64. Labour market dynamics in South Africa in the time of COVID-19: Evidence from wave 1 of the NIDS-CRAM survey By Vimal Ranchhod; Reza Daniels

  1. By: Artmann, Elisabeth; Oosterbeek, Hessel; van der Klaauw, Bas
    Abstract: To assess the importance of limited access to medical expertise, we exploit admission lotteries to medical school in the Netherlands to estimate the causal effects of having a child who is a doctor on parents' health outcomes. We use data on health care use and mortality of parents of 22,000 lottery participants. Results reject that health outcomes of doctors' parents differ from those of non-doctors' parents. This suggests that easy, informal access to medical expertise is not an important driver of differences in health care use and mortality. This is consistent with institutions that provide equal health care for all.
    Keywords: Health care use; Health inequality; Higher education; Intergenerational transmission; Medical information; Mortality
    JEL: D83 H51 I11 I12 I14 I26
    Date: 2019–10
  2. By: Hani Mansour; Daniel I. Rees; James Reeves
    Abstract: This is the first study to examine the effect of experiencing a widespread, deadly epidemic on voting behavior. Using data on elections to the U.S House of Representatives and leveraging cross-district variation in HIV/AIDS mortality during the period 1983-1987, we document the effects of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on votes received by Democratic and Republican candidates. Beginning with the 1994 elections, there is a strong, positive association between HIV/AIDS mortality and the vote share received by Democratic candidates. Congressional districts that bore the brunt of the HIV/AIDS epidemic also saw substantial increases in Democratic voter turnout and contributions made to Democratic candidates.
    Keywords: HIV/AIDS, epidemic, Democratic, Republican
    JEL: D72 I18
    Date: 2020
  3. By: Werbeck, Anna; Wübker, Ansgar; Ziebarth, Nicolas R.
    Abstract: Using a randomized field experiment, we show that health care specialists cream-skim patients by their expected profitability. In the German two-tier system, outpatient reimbursement rates for both public and private insurance are centrally determined but are more than twice as high for the privately insured. In our field experiment, following a standardized protocol, the same hypothetical patient called 991 private practices in 36 German counties to schedule appointments for allergy tests, hearing tests and gastroscopies. Practices were 7% more likely to offer an appointment to the privately insured. Conditional on being offered an appointment, wait times for the publicly insured were twice as long than for the privately insured. Our findings show that structural differences in reimbursement rates lead to structural differences in health care access.
    Keywords: health care inequality,reimbursement rates,health care access,discrimination,cherry picking,gastroscopy,audiometry,allergy test,allergists,otorhinolaryngologist,gastroenterologist
    JEL: I14 I11 I18
    Date: 2020
  4. By: Mohammad Abu-Zaineh (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université); Sameera Awawda (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université); Bruno Ventelou (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université)
    Abstract: In their quest for universal health coverage (UHC), many developing countries use alternative financing strategies including general revenues to expand health coverage to the whole population. Unless a policy adjustment is undertaken, future generations may foot the bill of the UHC. This raises the important policy questions of who bears the burden of UHC and whether the UHC-fiscal stance is sustainable in the long term. These two questions are addressed using an overlapping generations model within a general equilibrium (OLG-CGE) framework applied to Palestine. We assess and compare alternative ways of financing the UHC-ridden deficit (viz. deferred-debt, current and phased-manner finance) and their implications on fiscal sustainability and intergenerational inequalities. The policy instruments examined include direct labour-income tax and indirect consumption taxes as well as health insurance contributions. Results show that in the absence of any policy adjustment, the implementation of UHC would explode the fiscal deficit and debt-GDP ratio. This indicates that the UHC-fiscal stance is rather unsustainable in the long term, thus, calling for a policy adjustment to service the UHC debt. Among the policies we examined, a current rather than deferred-debt finance through consumption taxation emerged to be preferred over other policies in terms of its implications for both fiscal sustainability and intergenerational inequality.
    Keywords: intergenerational inequality,universal health coverage,overlapping generations,computable general equilibrium,fiscal sustainability
    Date: 2020
  5. By: Elsa Perdrix (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris School of Economics, IPP - Institut des politiques publiques)
    Abstract: This paper examines the causal impact of later retirement on doctor visits among the French elderly. This question is of interest since spillover effects may arise if later retirement increases healthcare expenditure. I exploit the 1993 French pension reform in a two-stage least square to deal with the endogeneity of retirement. This reform leads to a progressive increase in claiming age, cohort by cohort from 1934 to 1943. I use a two-part model to disentangle between extensive and intensive margin. I use the administrative data HYGIE to observe both healthcare consumption between 2005 and 2015 and past careers. I find that an increase in retirement by four months decreases significantly the probability to have at least one doctor visit per year by 0.815 percentage point and decreases the number of doctor visits by 1.14% between ages 67 and 75. This effect is driven by the consumption of generalist doctor visits, and tends to be stronger for the first ages of consumption observed.
    Keywords: Pension reform,Health,Healthcare consumption
    Date: 2020–07
  6. By: Adam Leive; Christopher J. Ruhm
    Abstract: We examine whether the least educated population groups experienced the worst mortality trends during the 21st century by measuring changes in mortality across education quartiles. We document sharply differing gender patterns. Among women, mortality trends improved fairly monotonically with education. Conversely, male trends for the lowest three education quartiles were often similar. For both sexes, the gap in average mortality between the top 25 percent and the bottom 75 percent is growing. However, there are many groups for whom these average patterns are reversed – with better experiences for the less educated – or where the differences are statistically indistinguishable.
    JEL: I10 I12 I24 J10
    Date: 2020–07
  7. By: Janke, Katharina; Johnston, David; Propper, Carol; Shields, Michael
    Abstract: We study the causal impact of education on chronic health conditions by exploitng two UK education policy reforms. The first reform raised the minimum school leaving age in 1972 and affected the lower end of the educational attainment distribution. The second reform is a combination of several policy changes that affected the broader educational attainment distribution in the early 1990s. Results are consistent across both reforms: an extra year of schooling has no statistically identifiable impact on the prevalence of most chronic health conditions. The exception is that both reforms led to a statistically significant reduction in the probability of having diabetes, and this result is robust across model specifications. However, even with the largest survey samples available in the UK, we are unable to statistically rule out moderate size educational effects for many of the other health conditions, although we generally find considerably smaller effects than OLS associations suggest.
    Keywords: Causality; Chronic Illness; Education reform
    JEL: I14 I24 I26
    Date: 2019–10
  8. By: Datta Gupta, Nabanita (Aarhus University); Nilsson, Anton (Lund University)
    Abstract: Alcohol is considered one of the most serious threats to population health, and to mitigate its negative consequences, most countries have implemented policies such as minimum legal drinking ages (MLDAs). Denmark, a country with an exceptionally liberal youth alcohol culture, introduced a minimum age for purchasing alcoholic beverages as late as in 1998, prohibiting those below 15 to buy alcohol. Previous studies from the U.S. and a few other contexts have provided substantial evidence that MLDA legislations influence outcomes such as car accidents, but there is little evidence from Europe. Moreover, there is limited evidence for injuries other than those due to vehicle accidents. We exploit the introduction and changes in the MLDA in Denmark to estimate effects on all classes of injuries, as well as alcohol-related outcomes such as intoxication and poisoning. We bring comprehensive evidence on the effects of a total of three reforms, which affected alcohol availability along different margins – 1) establishing an off-premise alcohol purchase age of 15 (1998), 2) raising the off-premise alcohol purchase age to 16 (2004), and 3) increasing the purchase age of beverages exceeding 16.5% in alcohol content from 16 to 18 (2011). Our findings show significant impacts of all the three reforms on injuries. We find that girls responded more to two first two reforms influencing alcohol availability, whereas boys responded more to the last reform, influencing availability of strong liquor. On the other hand, no consistent differences were found across different socioeconomic groups, perhaps reflecting similar patterns of drinking.
    Keywords: alcohol, minimum legal drinking ages, Difference-in-Differences, Denmark
    JEL: H00 I00 I12
    Date: 2020–06
  9. By: Cornelsen, Laura; Quaife, Matthew; Lagarde, Mylene; Smith, Richard D.
    Abstract: Taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are in place in many countries to combat obesity with emerging evidence that these are effective in reducing purchases of SSBs. In this study, we tested whether signalling and framing the price increase from an SSB tax explicitly as a health-related, earmarked measure reduces the demand for SSBs more than an equivalent price increase. We measured the demand for non-alcoholic beverages with a discrete choice experiment (DCE) administered online to a randomly selected group of n = 603 households with children in Great Britain (GB) who regularly purchase SSBs. We find a suggestive evidence that a price increase leads to a larger reduction in the probability of choosing SSBs when it is signalled as a tax and framed as a health-related and earmarked policy. Respondents who did not support a tax on SSBs, who were also more likely to choose SSBs in the first place, were on average more responsive to a price increase framed as an earmarked tax than those who supported the tax. The predictive validity of the DCE, to capture preferences for beverages, was confirmed using actual purchase data. The findings imply that a well-signalled and earmarked tax on SSBs could improve its effectiveness at reducing the demand.
    Keywords: demand analysis; discrete choice experiment; framing and signalling; sugar-sweetened beverage tax; United Kingdom; MR/L012324/1; MR/P021999/1; 1+3 Economic and Social Research Council studentship
    JEL: E6
    Date: 2020–07–07
  10. By: Bôckerman, Rikhard Petri; Haapanen, Mika; Jepsen, Christopher; Roulet, Alexandra
    Abstract: We examine the effects of a comprehensive school reform on mental health. The reform postponed the tracking of students into vocational and academic schools from age 11 to age 16. The reform was implemented gradually across Finnish municipalities between 1972 and 1977. We use difference-in-differences variation and administrative data. Our results show that there is no discernible effect on mental health related hospitalisations on average even though the effect is precisely estimated. Heterogeneity analysis shows that, after the reform, females from highly-educated families were more likely to be hospitalised for depression.
    Keywords: comprehensive school; Depression; hospitalisation; mental health; Tracking age
    JEL: I12 I26 I28
    Date: 2019–10
  11. By: Alessandro Bucciol (Department of Economics (University of Verona)); Chiara Coriele (Department of Economics (University of Verona)); Luca Zarri (Department of Economics (University of Verona))
    Abstract: A voluminous literature established a strong relationship between subjective health and socioeconomic status measures. We test the idea that self-reported health and subjective socioeconomic status have “shared non-cognitive roots”, i.e., that the same personality traits significantly affect both status variables, even after controlling for the complex relationships involving objective and subjective measures across the two domains. To this aim, we estimate a bivariate model based on longitudinal large-scale data (30,675 observations) from six waves (2006-2016) of the US Health and Retirement Study. Our findings strongly support our conjecture, as all the “Big Five” traits are significantly related to self-reported health and subjective socioeconomic status with the same sign, even after controlling for both objective measures and once the other subjective measure is considered. These results point to a novel, direct channel through which non-cognitive factors similarly influence self-evaluations across distinct, though strongly intertwined, domains.
    Keywords: Self-reported Health Status, Subjective Socioeconomic Status, Non-Cognitive Factors, Bivariate Model
    JEL: D91 I14 I31
    Date: 2020–07
  12. By: Chen, Xi; Yan, Binjian; Gill, Thomas M.
    Abstract: This paper estimates the extent to which childhood circumstances contribute to health inequality in old age and evaluates the importance of major domains of childhood circumstances to health inequalities in the USA and China. We link two waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) in 2013 and 2015 with the newly released 2014 Life History Survey (LHS), and two waves of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) in 2014 and 2016 with the newly released 2015 Life History Mail Survey (LHMS) in the USA, to quantify health inequality due to childhood circumstances for which they have little control. Using the Shapley value decomposition approach, we show that childhood circumstances may explain 7-16 percent and 14-30 percent of health inequality in old age in China and the USA, respectively. Specifically, the contribution of childhood circumstances to health inequality is larger in the USA than in China for self-rated health, mental health, and physical health. Examining domains of childhood circumstance, regional and rural/urban status contribute more to health inequality in China, while family socioeconomic status (SES) contributes more to health inequality in the USA. Our findings support the value of a life course approach in identifying the key determinants of health in old age. Distinguishing sources of health inequality and rectifying inequality due to early childhood circumstances should be the basis of policy promoting health equity.
    Keywords: Life course approach,Inequality of opportunity,Self-rated health,Mental health,Frailty,Childhood circumstances
    JEL: I14 J13 J14 O57
    Date: 2020
  13. By: Nie, Peng (Xi’an Jiaotong University); Ding, Lanlin (Xi’an Jiaotong University); Jones, Andrew M. (University of York)
    Abstract: Using the 2011 and 2015 waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) linked with the 2014 CHARLS Life History Survey, we provide a comprehensive analysis on inequality of opportunity (IOp) in both body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) among middle-aged and older Chinese. We find that IOp ranges from 65.5% to 74.6% for BMI (from 82.1% to 95.5% for WC). Decomposition results show that spatial circumstances such as urban/rural residence and province of residence are dominant. Health status and nutrition conditions in childhood are the second largest contributor. Distributional decompositions further reveal that inequality in bodyweight is not simply a matter of demographic (age and gender) inequalities; our set of spatial and health and nutrition conditions in childhood become much more relevant towards the right tails of the bodyweight distribution, where the clinical risk is focused.
    Keywords: inequality of opportunity, body mass index, waist circumference, CHARLS, Shapley-Shorrocks decomposition, unconditional quantile regressions
    JEL: D63 I12 I14
    Date: 2020–06
  14. By: Wang, Hao; Fidrmuc, Jan; Luo, Qi
    Abstract: Grandparenting duties can affect the well-being of the elderly both positively and negatively. This paper disentangles the interactions between grandparenting, quality of life, and life satisfaction in China. Using a panel dataset of 3,205 respondents in three waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) in 2011, 2013, and 2015, we find that grandparents who look after grandchildren are less at risk of depression, receive more financial and in-kind transfers from their children, and report greater life satisfaction than grandparents who do not look after grandchildren. These benefits vary across gender and rural-urban status, however. The positive effect of grandparenting is driven mainly by the direct effect with negligible mediating effect attributable to better quality of life.
    JEL: D13 O18
    Date: 2020–08–09
  15. By: Gordon B. Dahl; Claus Thustrup Kreiner; Torben Helen Nielsen; Benjamin Ly Serena
    Abstract: We decompose changing gaps in life expectancy between rich and poor into differential changes in age-specific mortality rates and differences in “survivability”. Declining age-specific mortality rates increases life expectancy, but the gain is small if the likelihood of living to this age is small (ex ante survivability) or if the expected remaining lifetime is short (ex post survivability). Lower survivability of the poor explains half of the recent rise in life expectancy inequality in the US and the entire rise in Denmark. Cardiovascular mortality declines favored the poor, but differences in lifestyle-related survivability led inequality to rise.
    Keywords: life expectancy inequality, mortality inequality
    JEL: I14
    Date: 2020
  16. By: De Walque,Damien B. C. M.; Chukwuma,Adanna Deborah Ugochi; Ayivi Guedehoussou,Nono Akpedje; Koshkakaryan,Marianna
    Abstract: The study is a randomized controlled trial that investigates the impact of four demand-side interventions on health screening for diabetes and hypertension among Armenian adults ages 35-68 who had not been tested in the last 12 months. The interventions are personal invitations from a physician (intervention group 1), personal invitations with information about peer screening behavior (intervention group 2), a labeled but unconditional cash transfer in the form of a pharmacy voucher (intervention group 3), and a conditional cash transfer in the form of a pharmacy voucher (intervention group 4). Compared with the control group in which only 3.5 percent of participants went for both screenings during the study period, interventions 1 to 3 led to a significant increase in the screening rate of about 15 percentage points among participants. The highest intervention impact was measured among recipients in intervention group 4, whose uptake of screening on both tests increased by 31.2 percentage points. The levels of cost-effectiveness of intervention groups 1, 2, and 4 are similar while for intervention group 3 it is about twice more expensive per additional person screened.
    Keywords: Health Care Services Industry,Disease Control&Prevention,Pharmaceuticals Industry,Services&Transfers to Poor,Access of Poor to Social Services,Economic Assistance,Disability
    Date: 2020–07–31
  17. By: Farasat A.S. Bokhari (School of Economics and Centre for Competition Policy, University of East Anglia); Weijie Yan (Economic and Social Research Institute, Ireland and Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland)
    Abstract: Do firms increase product lines to deter entry and, if so, when is such a strategy successful? We use data from the UK pharmaceuticals to examine how incumbents respond to change in the threat of entry. In line with the entry deterrence motive, originators' product launch rate is higher when the risk of entry is moderate, but becomes lower when entry is very likely, and the e ect is most pronounced in medium size markets. We further find that in medium size markets, originators can deny entry via proliferation if they fill the product space evenly across patients so that each variant has a significant market share of the originators drugs. This does not work in large markets, but here entry is deterred when originators engage in product hopping, i.e., shift most of the patients to newer variants of the drug that may still be protected by intellectual property.
    Keywords: Product proliferation, product hopping, entry deterrence, pharmaceuticals, hazard models
    JEL: L40 L12 I11 L79
    Date: 2020–01–01
  18. By: Ferran Espuny Pujol (Clinical Operational Research Unit, University College London); Ruth Hancock (Health Economics Group, University of East Anglia); Morten Hviid (Centre for Competition Policy, University of East Anglia); Marcello Morciano (University College London, University of Manchester); Stephen Pudney (School of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield)
    Abstract: We investigate the impact of exogenous local conditions which favour high market concentration on supply, price and quality in local markets for care homes for older people in England. We extend the existing literature in: (i) considering supply capacity as a market outcome alongside price and quality; (ii) taking account of the chain structure of care home supply and differences between the nursing home and residential care home sectors; (iii) introducing a new econometric approach based on reduced form relationships that treats market concentration as a jointly-determined outcome of a complex contested market. We find that areas susceptible to a high degree of market concentration tend to have greatly restricted supply of care home places and (to a lesser extent) a higher average public cost, than areas susceptible to low degree of market concentration. There is no significant evidence that conditions favouring high market concentration affect average care home quality.
    Keywords: Care homes; market concentration; price; supply; quality.
    JEL: H75 I11 L22
    Date: 2019–10–23
  19. By: Eichhorst, Werner (IZA); Hemerijck, Anton (European University Institute); Scalise, Gemma (University of Bergamo)
    Abstract: Barely having had the time to digest the economic and social aftershocks of the Great Recession, European welfare states are confronted with the even more disruptive coronavirus pandemic as probably, threatening the life of the more vulnerable, while incurring job losses for many as the consequence of the temporal "freezing of the economy" by lockdown measures. Before the Covid-19 virus struck, the new face of the digital transformation and the rise of the 'platform' economy already raised existential questions for future welfare provision. The Great Lockdown - if anything - is bound to accelerate these trends. Greater automation will reinforce working from home to reduce Covid-19 virus transmission risks. At the same time, the Great Lockdown will reinforce inequality, as the poor find it more difficult to work from home, while low-paid workers in essential service in health care, supermarket retail, postal services, security and waste disposal, continue to face contagion risks. And although popular conjectures of 'jobless growth' and 'routine-biased' job polarization, driven by digitization and artificial intelligence, may still be overblown, intrusive change in the nature of work and employment relations require fundamental rethinking of extant labour market regulation and social protection. Inspired more by adverse family demography than technological change, social investment reform has been the fil rouge of welfare recalibration since the turn of the century. Is social investment reform still valid in the new era of 'disruptive' technological transformation in aftermath of Coronavirus pandemic that is likely to turn into the worst recession since the second world war? Empirically, this chapter explores how Germany, Italy and the Netherlands, in terms of the strengths and vulnerabilities of their labour market to digitization, together with their respective social investment aptitude, are currently preparing their welfare states for the intensification of technological change in the decade ahead.
    Keywords: COVID-19, Italy, technological change, Netherlands, social investment, digital transition, Germany
    JEL: J21 J24 J42
    Date: 2020–06
  20. By: Bose, Neha (University of Warwick); Hills, Thomas (University of Warwick); Sgroi, Daniel (University of Warwick)
    Abstract: Though many in the general public are concerned about climate change, most are unaware that agriculture and food production accounts for about one quarter of aggregate green house emissions and therefore, diet change is one of the most effective ways that individuals can reduce their climate impact. To investigate how best to communicate this, we present the results of a pre-registered randomised control trial, involving 1220 subjects, exploring six different information interventions. Our findings indicate that the most influential interventions are based on scientific knowledge and efficacy salience. These effects are mediated by prior beliefs and individual characteristics. Providing information on the health impact of a plant-based diet was most effective for individuals with pre-existing health concerns. The greatest resistance to this information was associated with motivated reasoning around meat consumption: the more meat a participant consumed the less they reported knowing about the relationship between diet and climate before the study, the more resistant they were to new information demonstrating that relationship, the lower their efficacy beliefs around climate change, and the more likely they were to take moral offence at being informed. Our results suggest that while many people are open to dietary change and are responsive to scientific evidence, the largest potential for impact between diet and climate may be in overcoming pre-existing biases associated with sacred values around meat consumption.
    Keywords: self efficacy, decit model of science communication, nudge, interventions, environment, agriculture, vegan, vegetarian, diet, climate change, motivated reasoning, cognitive dissonance, strategic ignorance, social norms
    JEL: Q54 D91 I12 C90
    Date: 2020–06
  21. By: Steven Yin; Shatian Wang; Lingyi Zhang; Christian Kroer
    Abstract: Inspired by the recent COVID-19 pandemic, we study a generalization of the multi-resource allocation problem with heterogeneous demands and Leontief utilities. Specifically, we assume each agent can only receive allocations from a subset of the total supply for each resource. Such constraints often arise from location constraints (e.g. among all of the volunteer nurses, only a subset of them can work at hospital A due to commute constraints. So hospital A can only receive allocations of volunteers from a subset of the total supply). We propose a new mechanism called Group Dominant Resource Fairness which determines the allocations by solving a small number of linear programs. The proposed method satisfies Pareto optimality, envy-freeness, strategy-proofness, and under an additional mild assumption, also proportionality. We show numerically that our method scales better to large problems than alternative approaches. Finally, although motivated by the problem of medical resource allocation in a pandemic, our mechanism can be applied more broadly to resource allocation under Leontief utilities with external constraints.
    Date: 2020–07
  22. By: Brodeur, Abel; Gray, David; Islam, Anik; Bhuiyan, Suraiya Jabeen
    Abstract: The goal of this piece is to survey the emerging and rapidly growing literature on the economic consequences of COVID-19 and governmental responses, and to synthetize the insights emerging from a very large number of studies. This survey (i) provides an overview of the data sets used to measure social distancing and COVID-19 cases and deaths; (ii) reviews the literature on the determinants of compliance and effectiveness of social distancing; (iii) summarizes the literature on the socio-economic consequences of COVID-19 and governmental interventions, focusing on labor, health, gender, discrimination and environmental aspects; and (iv) discusses policy proposals.
    Keywords: COVID-19,coronavirus,employment,lockdowns
    JEL: E00 I15 I18 J20
    Date: 2020
  23. By: Alexander Ahammer; Martin Halla; Mario Lackner
    Abstract: Social distancing is important to slow the community spread of infectious disease, but it creates enormous economic and social cost. Thus, it is important to quantify the benefits of different measures. We study the ban of mass gatherings, an intervention with comparably low cost. We exploit exogenous spatial and temporal variation in NBA and NHL games—which arise due to the leagues’ predetermined schedules—and the suspension of the 2019-20 seasons. This allows us to estimate the impact of indoor mass gatherings on COVID-19 mortality in affected US counties. One additional mass gathering increased the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in affected counties by 9 percent.
    Keywords: Social distancing, mass gatherings, Coronavirus Disease 2019, COVID-19.
    JEL: I18 H12 I10
    Date: 2020–06
  24. By: M. Keith Chen; Judith A. Chevalier; Elisa F. Long
    Abstract: Nursing homes and other long term-care facilities account for a disproportionate share of COVID-19 cases and fatalities worldwide. Outbreaks in U.S. nursing homes have persisted despite nationwide visitor restrictions beginning in mid-March. An early report issued by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention identified staff members working in multiple nursing homes as a likely source of spread from the Life Care Center in Kirkland, Washington to other skilled nursing facilities. The full extent of staff connections between nursing homes---and the crucial role these connections serve in spreading a highly contagious respiratory infection---is currently unknown given the lack of centralized data on cross-facility nursing home employment. In this paper, we perform the first large-scale analysis of nursing home connections via shared staff using device-level geolocation data from 30 million smartphones, and find that 7 percent of smartphones appearing in a nursing home also appeared in at least one other facility---even after visitor restrictions were imposed. We construct network measures of nursing home connectedness and estimate that nursing homes have, on average, connections with 15 other facilities. Controlling for demographic and other factors, a home's staff-network connections and its centrality within the greater network strongly predict COVID-19 cases. Traditional federal regulatory metrics of nursing home quality are unimportant in predicting outbreaks, consistent with recent research. Results suggest that eliminating staff linkages between nursing homes could reduce COVID-19 infections in nursing homes by 44 percent.
    Date: 2020–07
  25. By: Ammar Rashid (Senior Researcher, Health Policy Think Tank Heartfile)
    Abstract: The following paper is a response to the paper ‘The Benefits and Costs of Social Distancing in Rich and Poor Countries’ by Zachary Barnett-Howell and Mushfiq Mobarak (April 2020) of Yale, who use a Value of Statistical Lives (VSL) analysis to argue that the epidemiological and economic benefits of saving lives via social distancing in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic are ‘much smaller in poorer countries’ than in rich countries. This paper argues that Barnet-Howell and Mobarak’s paper does not amount to a credible cost-benefit analysis of social distancing in the present context as: (a) It mischaracterizes the goal of social distancing as a permanent imposition until a vaccine is developed rather than an epidemiological measure aiming to bring the reproduction number below 1 ; (b) It underestimates the mortality risks in developing countries owing to a lack of consideration of lower healthcare capacity, greater incidence of existing infectious diseases, higher levels of air pollution and multi-generational households; (c) It relies on flawed methodology that calculates the value of statistical lives for developing countries in the context of a pandemic from a past, unrepresentative sample of studies consisting of valuations of willingness to pay (WTP) to reduce linear workplace risk - rather than non-linear infectious disease risk - in developed countries; (d) It uses questionable assumptions of an absence or impossibility of any government intervention that could reduce the risk-income trade-off for workers from low-income countries; (e) It fails to assess the costs of potential COVID19 contagion including the long-term damage to public health, health worker mortality, and supply chains and food production disruption, among others, critical to conduct an objective cost-benefit analysis on the merits of social distancing. It is argued in response that that social distancing is not a negotiable measure exclusively applicable to rich countries but is demonstrably necessary to avert the potentially catastrophic mortality, morbidity and economic consequences of COVID-19 contagion. Cost-benefit analyses for the pandemic must assess the risks and costs specific to the current context rather than abstract estimates of VSL based on past, linear risks. While social distancing exerts economic costs, evidence shows that mitigating those costs through targeted stimulus measures in developing countries for time-bound periods is both possible and necessary for long-term economic revival. Further, instead of blanket claims about the inapplicability of disease suppression measures in developing countries, economic policy will need to work in tandem with epidemiological and public health indicators like the reproduction number (R), rate of growth of infections, hospital, bed and ICU capacity and testing statistics, while reviewing a range of fiscal and monetary options to assess how economic costs can be averted to minimize loss of both life and livelihoods through appropriate income support, food distribution, health and employment interventions.
    Keywords: Covid-19, Social Distancing, Value of Statistical Lives, VSL, Cost-benefit Analysis, Developing Countries
    JEL: I10 I18 O10
    Date: 2020
  26. By: Mohajan, Haradhan
    Abstract: COVID-19 is a novel (new) coronavirus fatal disease caused by SARS-COV-2 (2019-nCoV). The outbreak of this pandemic first has been identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China on 1 December 2019, and has spread worldwide very quickly. It is now a major global health threat. After the World War II, the world faces such a major challenge in health sector and economy. The virus is transmitted human-to-human through the respiratory system. From the poor to the rich, infants to old, every people are infected from this virus. The disease spreads in Italy very fast and the north of the country is mostly affected. Lombardy Region is the most infected region in the country. An attempt has been made here to discuss the aspects of infection and deaths due to COVID-19 in Italy.
    Keywords: COVID-19 outbreak, SARS-CoV-2, pandemic, Lombardy outbreak, Italy
    JEL: I12 I15
    Date: 2020–04–15
  27. By: Alina Kristin Bartscher (University of Bonn); Sebastian Seitz (ZEW and University of Mannheim); Sebastian Siegloch (ZEW and University of Mannheim); Michaela Slotwinski (ZEW and University of Basel); Nils Wehrhöfer (ZEW and University of Mannheim)
    Abstract: We explore the role of social capital in the spread of the recent Covid-19 pandemic in independent analyses for Austria, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK. We exploit within-country variation in social capital and Covid-19 cases to show that high-social-capital areas accumulated between 12% and 32% fewer Covid-19 cases per capita from mid-March until mid-May. Using Italy as a case study, we find that high-social-capital areas exhibit lower excess mortality and a decline in mobility. Our results have important implications for the design of local containment policies in future waves of the pandemic.
    Keywords: Covid-19, social capital, collective action, health costs, Europe
    JEL: D04 A13 D91 H11 H12 I10 I18
    Date: 2020–06
  28. By: Chirikov, Igor; Soria, Krista M; Horgos, Bonnie; Jones-White, Daniel
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has looming negative impacts on mental health of undergraduate and graduate students at research universities, according to the Student Experience in the Research University (SERU) Consortium survey of 30,725 undergraduate students and 15,346 graduate and professional students conducted in May-July 2020 at nine public research universities. Based on PHQ-2 and GAD-2 screening tools, 35% of undergraduates and 32% of graduate and professional students screened positive for major depressive disorder, while 39% of undergraduate and graduate and professional students screened positive for generalized anxiety disorder. Major depressive disorder and generalized anxiety disorder rates are more pronounced among low-income students; students of color; women and non-binary students; transgender students; gay or lesbian, bisexual, queer, questioning, asexual, and pansexual students; and, students who are caregivers. The prevalence of major depressive disorder and generalized anxiety disorder is higher among the undergraduate and graduate students who did not adapt well to remote instruction. Furthermore, the pandemic has led to increases in students’ mental health disorders compared to previous years. In fact, the prevalence of major depressive disorder among graduate and professional students is two times higher in 2020 compared to 2019 and the prevalence of generalized anxiety disorder is 1.5 times higher than in 2019.
    Keywords: Education, Social and Behavioral Sciences, COVID-19, student mental health, anxiety, depression
    Date: 2020–08–17
  29. By: Andrew T. Levin; Kensington B. Cochran; Seamus P. Walsh
    Abstract: This paper assesses the age specificity of the infection fatality rate (IFR) for COVID-19. Our benchmark meta-regression synthesizes the age-specific IFRs from four recent large-scale seroprevalence studies conducted in Belgium, Geneva, Spain, and Sweden. The estimated IFR is close to zero for children and younger adults but rises exponentially with age, reaching about 0.3 percent for ages 50-59, 1 percent for ages 60-69, 4 percent for ages 70-79, and 24 percent for ages 80 and above. We compare those predictions to the age-specific IFRs computed using recent seroprevalence studies of six U.S. geographical areas, three small-scale studies, and three countries (Iceland, New Zealand, and Republic of Korea) that have engaged in comprehensive tracking and tracing of COVID-19 infections. We also review more than 30 other seroprevalence studies whose design was not well-suited for estimating age-specific IFRs. Our findings indicate that COVID-19 is not just dangerous for the elderly and infirm but also for healthy middle-aged adults, for whom the fatality rate is roughly 50 times greater than the risk of dying in an automobile accident. Consequently, the overall IFR for a given location is intrinsically linked to the age-specific pattern of infections. In a scenario where the U.S. infection rate reaches nearly 30 percent, our analysis indicates that protecting vulnerable age groups could prevent over 200,000 deaths.
    JEL: H12 H51 I10 I12
    Date: 2020–07
  30. By: Augusto Cerqua (Department of Social Sciences and Economics, Sapienza University of Rome); Roberta Di Stefano (Department of Methods and Models for Economics, Territory and Finance, Sapienza University of Rome); Marco Letta (Department of Social Sciences and Economics, Sapienza University of Rome); Sara Miccoli (Department of Methods and Models for Economics, Territory and Finance, Sapienza University of Rome)
    Abstract: Estimates of the real death toll of the COVID-19 pandemic have proven to be problematic in many countries, and Italy is no exception. Mortality estimates at the local level are even more uncertain as they require strict conditions, such as granularity and accuracy of the data at hand, which are rarely met. The ‘official’ approach adopted by public institutions to estimate the ‘excess of mortality’ during the pandemic is based on a comparison between observed all-cause mortality data for 2020 with an average of mortality figures in the past years for the same period. In this paper, we show that more sophisticated approaches such as counterfactual and machine learning techniques outperform the official method by improving prediction accuracy by up to 18%, thus providing a more realistic picture of local excess mortality. The predictive gain is particularly sizable for small- and medium-sized municipalities. After showing the superiority of data-driven statistical methods, we apply the best-performing algorithms to generate a municipality-level dataset of local excess mortality estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic. This dataset is publicly shared and will be periodically updated as new data become available.
    Keywords: COVID-19, coronavirus, mortality estimates, Italy, municipalities
    JEL: C21 C52 I10 J11
    Date: 2020–07
  31. By: Dipasquale, Daniela; Torrisi, Gianpiero
    Abstract: The number of COVID-19 cases occurred unevenly across the national territory. This analysis adopts a provincial perspective on the spread of COVID-19. A Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) analysis shows the positive link between the number of COVID-19 cases with population density, life-expectancy and pollution level. While the result of a positive link with the population density and the level of pollution is rather intuitive, this is not the case w.r.t. life expectancy whose result calls for further investigation.
    Keywords: Covid; Lockdown; Pollution; Health
    JEL: I1 I18 R11 R5
    Date: 2020
  32. By: Yerkes, Mara A.; André, Stéfanie; Beckers, Debby G. J.; Besamusca, Janna; Kruyen, Peter Mathieu; Remery, Chantal; van der Zwan, Roos; Geurts, Sabine
    Abstract: This study examines the impact of the Dutch ‘intelligent lockdown’ during the COVID-19 pandemic on work and family dynamics among parents. This ‘intelligent lockdown’ relied on a combination of restrictive measures and an emphasis on individual responsibility as a means of lessening the spread and health impact of the pandemic. However, the COVID-19 pandemic is more than a public health crisis. Lockdown measures had substantial societal effects, including a significant impact on parents with (young) children. Given gender inequality existent prior to the pandemic, the question arises to what extent the consequences of the lockdown varied for mothers and fathers. Using representative survey data gathered among Dutch parents in April 2020, we explore changes in three areas: paid work, the division of care and household work, and quality of life (leisure, work-life balance, relationship dynamics). Our linear probability and multinomial logistic models demonstrate that the way in which families were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic reflects a complex gendered reality. We find that gender inequality patterns in the division of paid work, care work, and housework continue to exist. Moreover, the unique situation created by restrictive lockdown measures magnified some inequalities while others were lessened. We find evidence of increased gender inequality in relation to paid work and quality of life, yet a decrease in gender inequality in the division of care and household tasks. During the lockdown, Dutch fathers reported doing more care and household tasks than before. The insights provided here offer key comparative references for understanding the broader impact of lockdown measures on work and family dynamics, as well as quality of life as we move forward in the COVID-19 pandemic.
    Date: 2020–07–21
  33. By: Yoo, Sunbin; Managi, Shusuke
    Abstract: The rapid spread of COVID-19 motivated countries worldwide to mitigate mortality through actions including social distancing, home quarantine, school closures, and case isolation. We estimate the global mortality benefits of these actions. We use county-level data on COVID-19 from January 2020, project the number of mortalities until September 2020, and calculate the global mortality benefits using the age- and country-specific value of a statistical life (VSL). Implementing all four types of actions above would save approximately 40.76 trillion USD globally, with social distancing accounting for 55% of the benefits. The monetary benefit would be the largest in the US, Japan and China. Our findings indicate that global actions during COVID-19 have substantial economic benefits and must be implemented in response to COVID-19.
    Keywords: COVID-19; coronavirus; global mortality benefit; value of a statistical life; epidemic diseases
    JEL: D6 H84 I10 I12 I18
    Date: 2020–06
  34. By: Del Boca, Daniela (University of Turin); Oggero, Noemi (University of Turin); Profeta, Paola (Bocconi University); Rossi, Maria Cristina (University of Turin)
    Abstract: Evidence from past economic crises indicates that recessions often affect men's and women's employment differently, with a greater impact on male-dominated sectors. The current COVID-19 crisis presents novel characteristics that have affected economic, health and social phenomena over wide swaths of the economy. Social distancing measures to combat the spread of the virus, such as working from home and school closures, have placed an additional tremendous burden on families. Using new survey data collected in April 2020 from a representative sample of Italian women, we analyse jointly the effect of COVID-19 on the working arrangements, housework and childcare of couples where both partners work. Our results show that most of the additional workload associated to COVID-19 falls on women while childcare activities are more equally shared within the couple than housework activities. According to our empirical estimates, changes to the amount of housework done by women during the emergency do not seem to depend on their partners' working arrangements. With the exception of those continuing to work at their usual place of work, all of the women surveyed spend more time on housework than before. In contrast, the amount of time men devote to housework does depend on their partners' working arrangements: men whose partners continue to work at their usual workplace spend more time on housework than before. The link between time devoted to childcare and working arrangements is more symmetric, with both women and men spending less time with their children if they continue to work away from home. For home schooling, too, parents who continue to go to their usual workplace after the lockdown are less likely to spend greater amounts of time with their children than before. Similar results emerge for our sample of women not working before the emergency. Finally, analysis of work-life balance satisfaction shows that working women with children aged 0-5 are those who say they find balancing work and family more difficult during COVID-19. The work-life balance is especially difficult to achieve for those with partners who continue to work outside the home during the emergency.
    Keywords: COVID-19, work arrangements, housework, childcare
    JEL: J13 J16 J21
    Date: 2020–06
  35. By: Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham; Maxim L. Pinkovskiy; Jacob Wallace
    Abstract: Consumer financial strain varies enormously across the United States. One pernicious source of financial strain is debt in collections—debt that is more than 120 days past due and that has been sold to a collections agency. In Massachusetts, the average person has less than $100 in collections debt, while in Texas, the average person has more than $300. In this post, we discuss our recent staff report that exploits the fact that virtually all Americans are universally covered by Medicare at 65 to show that health insurance not only improves financial health on average, but also is a major explanation for the heterogeneity in financial strain across the country. We find that Medicare affects different parts of the United States differently and plays a particularly important role in improving financial health in the least advantaged areas.
    Keywords: medicare; collections; commuting zones; heterogeneity; diversity
    JEL: D14 I14
    Date: 2020–07–08
  36. By: Simplice A. Asongu (Yaounde, Cameroon); Samba Diop (Alioune Diop University, Bambey, Senegal); Joseph Nnanna (The Development Bank of Nigeria, Abuja, Nigeria)
    Abstract: This study has: (i) analysed the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, (ii) evaluated the effectiveness and relevance of different measures against the pandemic and (iii) examined nexuses between the corresponding measures and economic outcomes. The study uses a sample of 186 countries divided into four main regions, notably: Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, Europe, Africa and America. 34 preventing and mitigating measures against the Covid-19 pandemic are classified into five main categories: lockdown, movement restrictions, governance and economic, social distancing, and public health measures. The empirical evidence is based on comparative difference in means tests and correlation analyses. The findings show how the effectiveness and consequences of the Covid-19 measures are different across regions. In adopting the relevant policies to fight the ongoing pandemic, the comparative insights from the findings in the study are worthwhile. Inter alia: (i) from a holistic perspective, only European countries have favourably benefited from the Covid-19 measures; (ii) lockdown measures at the global level have not been significant in reducing the pandemic; (iii) the restriction of movement measure has been relevant in curbing the spread in the American continent; (iv) social distancing has been productive in Europe and counter-productive in Africa; (v) governance and economic measures have exclusively been relevant in Europe and (vi) overall public health measures have not had the desired outcomes in flattening the infection curve probably because most of the underlying measures are awareness decisions or oriented toward people already infected.
    Keywords: Novel Coronavirus, Social Distance, Macroeconomics effects
    JEL: E10 E12 E20 E23 I10 I18
    Date: 2020–07
  37. By: Krishna Chaitanya Vadlamannati; Arusha Cooray; Indra de Soysa
    Abstract: Scholars of public health typically focus on societal equity for explaining public health outcomes. Indeed, the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a spate of studies showing a tight connection between inequitable access to healthcare, welfare services, and adverse outcomes from the pandemic. Others have argued that democratic governments have generally failed relative to more autocratic ones, simply because autocrats can make the hard choices required for stemming the spread of viruses.
    Keywords: COVID-19, Healthcare, healthcare access, healthcare capacity, Democracy, egalitarian democracy
    Date: 2020
  38. By: Angelini, Elena; Darracq Pariès, Matthieu; Zimic, Srečko; Damjanović, Milan
    Abstract: This paper studies the macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and makes a first step in adapting the central bank modelling apparatus to the new economic landscape. We augment the ECB-BASE model with the predictive dynamics of the SIR model in order to assess the interplay between epidemiological fundamentals, containment policies and the macroeconomy. Containment policies considerably reduce the share of infected and deceased people, but generate a sharp decline in economic activity. Barring the materialization of amplification risks, the induced recession may remain broadly V-shaped under targeted confinement policies. By comparison, a "laissez-faire" approach to the pandemic emergency can even inflict in some cases higher long-term economic costs. Nevertheless, the depth of the recession and the speed of the recovery (if at all) crucially depend on the magnitude and persistence of the supply-side retrenchment, as well as on the risk of macro-financial feedback loops. JEL Classification: E1, E3, I1
    Keywords: COVID-19, ECB-BASE, epidemic, modelling
    Date: 2020–06
  39. By: Oikawa, Masato (Waseda University); Tanaka, Ryuichi (University of Tokyo); Bessho, Shun-ichiro (University of Tokyo); Noguchi, Haruko (Waseda University)
    Abstract: We evaluate the causal effect of class size (i.e., number of students in a classroom) on incidence of class closure due to flu epidemic in 2015, 2016, and 2017, applying an instrumental variable method with the Maimonides rule to administrative data of public primary and middle school students in one of the largest municipalities within the City of Tokyo Metropolitan Area. Given the classroom area of 63m2 set by regulation in Japan, class size reduction improves social distancing among students in a classroom. We find that class size reduction is effective to reduce class closure due to flu: one unit reduction of class size decreases class closure by about 5%; and forming small classes with 27 students at most, satisfying the social distancing of 1.5 m recommended to prevent droplet infection including influenza and COVID-19, reduces class closure by about 90%. In addition, we find that the older are students, the larger are the effects of class size reduction. Our findings provide supportive evidence for the effectiveness of social distancing policy in primary and middle schools to protect students from droplet infectious disease including COVID-19.
    Keywords: class size, class closure, students health, influenza(flu) epidemic, lesson for COVID-19, COVID-19
    JEL: I18 I21 I28
    Date: 2020–07
  40. By: Lima, Everton; Vilela, Estevão; Peralta, Andrés; Rocha, Marília Gabriela; Queiroz, Bernardo L (Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Brazil); Gonzaga, Marcos Roberto; Freire, Flávio; Piscoya, Mario
    Abstract: BACKGROUND The covid-19 pandemic has considerably affected the mortality numbers of many countries in the world, and Latin America is now the epicenter of the diseases. There is a great demand on analyzing the impact of this new disease in the amount of deaths, but available information of deaths by cause is still lacking in most of the countries in the region. OBJECTIVE We aimed to measure the effects of the disease on mortality, using excess mortality, in two Latin America countries that were most affected by the covid-19 pandemic in the region: Brazil, Chile, Ecuador and Peru. METHODS We measured the effects of the pandemic by looking at the excess mortality, and comparing estimates of differences in the average number of deaths, variation coefficients and percentages of deaths between the months of March to May for 2019 and 2020. RESULTS Our findings indicated an excess of deaths initially in major cities, but then is spreading towards the least urbanized areas. In the next phase, pandemic will probably affect countries’ cities in worse socioeconomic and sanitary conditions. In Ecuador, we saw that the most affected locations were the less socioeconomic areas of the country. CONCLUSION Despite the lack of information on causes of death, the excess of deaths is a good indicator for measuring the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, especially in the context Latin America countries. We find strong evidence of the pandemic’s impact and interiorization, especially in Brazilian cases. CONTRIBUTION This study provides an initial discussion of the effects of pandemic in small and less urbanized areas of Brazil and Ecuador.
    Date: 2020–06–24
  41. By: Anderson, Dylan; Hesketh, Rachel; Kleinman, Mark; Portes, Jonathan
    Abstract: Over the last 50 years, London has successfully adapted to technological change and globalization, making it the major driver of the UK economy. But its strengths have also made the city particularly vulnerable to the health impacts of COVID-19, and potentially also to wider negative economic implications of the crisis. Many of London’s key sectors rely on proximity, agglomeration economies and externalities. We evaluate the available data on the impact of the pandemic on London to date, with a particular focus on the differential effects between sectors. We also identify seven key trends, affecting both the demand and supply side of the economy, that are likely to have significant medium- to long-term economic impacts, and assess the potential impacts on London’s major industrial sectors. Our findings suggest that COVID-19 may further accentuate the existing divide between globally competitive advanced producer services and more locally focused sectors providing lower-value personal and household services, posing a number of significant policy challenges.
    Keywords: COVID-19,London,agglomeration economies,migration,services
    JEL: J11 J24 J61 R11
    Date: 2020
  42. By: Barnes, Stephen R.; Beland, Louis-Philippe; Huh, Jason; Kim, Dongwoo
    Abstract: We use a regression discontinuity design to study the effect of the COVID-19 lockdown on mobility and traffic accidents. Based on data from Google Community Mobility reports and Uniform Traffic Crash Report from the Louisiana Department of Transportation and Develop- ment (LaDOTD), we find that the stay-at-home order led to a large decrease in traffic accidents (-47 percent). In particular, we find a large decrease in accidents involving injury (-46 percent), distracted drivers (-43 percent), and ambulances (-41 percent). We also find evidence of a change in the composition of accidents, with more incidents involving individuals aged 25 to 64, male, and nonwhite drivers. Interestingly, we find no impact on ambulance response time, despite lower traffic. Finally, we document a large decrease in mobility in Louisiana. Our results have important policy implications for traffic management policies.
    Keywords: COVID-19,Lockdown,Accidents,Traffic Management,Regression Discontinuity
    JEL: R20 R41 R42 R48 H41 D62
    Date: 2020
  43. By: Anderson, Dylan; Hesketh, Rachel; Kleinman, Mark; Portes, Jonathan
    Abstract: Over the last 50 years, London has successfully adapted to technological change and globalization, making it the major driver of the UK economy. But its strengths have also made the city particularly vulnerable to the health impacts of COVID-19, and potentially also to wider negative economic implications of the crisis. Many of London’s key sectors rely on proximity, agglomeration economies and externalities. We evaluate the available data on the impact of the pandemic on London to date, with a particular focus on the differential effects between sectors. We also identify seven key trends, affecting both the demand and supply side of the economy, that are likely to have significant medium- to long-term economic impacts, and assess the potential impacts on London’s major industrial sectors. Our findings suggest that COVID-19 may further accentuate the existing divide between globally competitive advanced producer services and more locally focused sectors providing lower-value personal and household services, posing a number of significant policy challenges.
    Date: 2020–07–22
  44. By: Ralph Hertwig; Stefan Liebig; Ulman Lindenberger; Gert G. Wagner
    Abstract: To investigate the coronavirus crisis and perceptions of risks associated with the virus, we analyzed data from the longitudinal Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) study and the SOEP-CoV study, which is embedded in the SOEP. In the period from April 1 to July 5, 2020, the CoV-questionnaire included the item: “How likely do you think it is that the novel coronavirus will cause you to become critically ill in the next 12 months?” Respondents responded by estimating the likelihood on a scale from 0 to 100 percent. The apparent difficulty of this question did not pose an obstacle for most of the 5,783 respondents: Only 2.3 percent of all respondents gave no answer. The average subjective probability of a life-threatening COVID-19 infection amounted to 25.9 percent (weighted average). This subjective estimate increases both with age and with preexisting medical conditions (self-reported in 2019). Those who had been tested themselves or who lived in the same household as someone who had been tested estimated a higher risk of becoming critically ill as a result of the novel coronavirus.
    Keywords: COVID-19, Corona, subjective risk, SOEP-CoV
    JEL: D83 D84 I12 Z18
    Date: 2020
  45. By: Bertocchi, Graziella; Dimico, Arcangelo
    Abstract: Discussion on the disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on African Americans has been at center stage since the outbreak of the epidemic in the United States. To present day, however, lack of race-disaggregated individual data has prevented a rigorous assessment of the extent of this phenomenon and the reasons why blacks may be particularly vulnerable to the disease. Using individual and georeferenced death data collected daily by the Cook County Medical Examiner, we provide first evidence that race does affect COVID-19 outcomes. The data confirm that in Cook County blacks are overrepresented in terms of COVID-19 related deaths since|as of June 16, 2020|they constitute 35 percent of the dead, so that they are dying at a rate 1.3 times higher than their population share. Furthermore, by combining the spatial distribution of mortality with the 1930s redlining maps for the Chicago area, we obtain a block group level panel dataset of weekly deaths over the period January 1, 2020-June 16, 2020, over which we establish that, after the outbreak of the epidemic, historically lower-graded neigh- borhoods display a sharper increase in mortality, driven by blacks, while no pre- treatment differences are detected. Thus, we uncover a persistence in uence of the racial segregation induced by the discriminatory lending practices of the 1930s, by way of a diminished resilience of the black population to the shock represented by the COVID-19 outbreak. A heterogeneity analysis reveals that the main channels of transmission are socioeconomic status and household composition, whose in uence is magnified in combination with a higher black share.
    Keywords: COVID-19,deaths,blacks,redlining,vulnerability,Cook County,Chicago
    JEL: I14 J15 N32 N92 R38
    Date: 2020
  46. By: Jochen Güntner
    Abstract: Elections may take place in precarious environments that even pose health risks. I consider the case of Bavaria, where close to ten million people were asked to vote in the municipal elections on March 15 of 2020, to quantify the toll of elections in a pandemic. Despite declaring a state of emergency on the very next day, two weeks later, Bavaria had left behind any other German state in terms of COVID-19 infections and deaths per capita. Using district-level health, demographic, and economic data, I nd that at least 3,700 or 15% of the cumulative increase in positive test results between March 15 and April 4 are explained by a dummy variable for Bavaria. Across Bavarian districts, a 1% increase in voter participation is associated with an additional 13.6 positive tests and 1.2 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants over the following three weeks.
    Keywords: COVID-19, municipal elections, pandemic, synthetic control method
    JEL: H11 H12 I12 I18
    Date: 2020–08
  47. By: Decerf, Benoit; Ferreira, Francisco H. G.; Mahler, Daniel G.; Sterck, Olivier
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the global welfare consequences of increases in mortality and poverty generated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Increases in mortality are measured in terms of the number of years of life lost (LY) to the pandemic. Additional years spent in poverty (PY) are conservatively estimated using growth estimates for 2020 and two dif-ferent scenarios for its distributional characteristics. Using years of life as a welfare metric yields a single parameter that captures the underlying trade-off between lives and livelihoods: how many PYs have the same welfare cost as one LY. Taking an agnostic view of this parameter, estimates of LYs and PYs are compared across countries for different scenarios. Three main findings arise. First, as of early June 2020, the pandemic (and the observed private and policy responses) has generated at least 68 million additional poverty years and 4.3 million years of life lost across 150 countries. The ratio of PYs to LYs is very large in most coun-tries, suggesting that the poverty consequences of the crisis are of paramount importance. Second, this ratio declines systematically with GDP per capita: poverty accounts for a much greater share of the welfare costs in poorer countries. Finally, the dominance of poverty over mortality is reversed in a counterfactual “herd immunity” scenario: without any policy intervention, LYs tend to be greater than PYs, and the overall welfare losses are greater.
    Keywords: Covid-19; coronavirus; welfare; poverty; mortality
    JEL: D63 I32 O15
    Date: 2020–07
  48. By: Paul Brandily (PSE - Paris School of Economics); Clément Brébion (CEET - Centre d'études de l'emploi et du travail - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé); Simon Briole (PSE - Paris School of Economics, J-PAL Europe - Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab - Europe); Laura Khoury (Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration - Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)
    Abstract: While COVID-19 was already responsible for more than 500,000 deaths worldwide as of July 3, 2020, very little is known on the socio-economic heterogeneity of its impact on mortality. In this paper, we combine several administrative data sources to estimate the relationship between mortality due to COVID-19 and poverty at a very local level (i.e. the municipality level) in France, one of the most severely hit country in the world. We nd strong evidence of an income gradient in the impact of the pandemic on mortality: it is twice as large in the poorest municipalities compared to other municipalities. We then show that both poor housing conditions and higher occupational exposure are likely mechanisms. Overall, these mechanisms accounts for up to 60% of the difference observed between rich and poor municipalities.
    Keywords: COVID-19,poverty,inequality,mortality,labor market,housing conditions
    Date: 2020–07
  49. By: Daniela Del Boca; Noemi Oggero; Paola Profeta; Maria Cristina Rossi
    Abstract: Using new survey data collected in April 2020 from a representative sample of Italian women, we analyse jointly the effect of COVID-19 on the working arrangements, housework and childcare of couples where both partners work. ties. According to our empirical estimates, changes to the amount of housework done by women during the emergency do not seem to depend on their partners’ working arrangements. With the exception of those continuing to work at their usual place of work, all of the women surveyed spend more time on housework than before. In contrast, the amount of time men devote to housework does depend on their partners’ working arrangements: men whose partners continue to work at their usual workplace spend more time on housework than before. The link between time devoted to childcare and working arrangements is more symmetric, with both women and men spending less time with their children if they continue to work away from home. Similar results emerge for our sample of women not working before the emergency. Finally, analysis of work-life balance satisfaction shows that working women with children aged 0-5 are those who say they find balancing work and family more difficult during COVID-19.The work-life balance is especially difficult to achieve for those with partners who continue to work outside the home during the emergency.
    Keywords: COVID-19, work arrangements, housework, childcare
    JEL: J13 J16 J21
    Date: 2020
  50. By: Michalek, Gabriela; Schwarze, Reimund
    Abstract: Nudging and behavioural insights need to be taken into account in strategic action planning for suppression and reduction of pandemic effects. This paper focuses on a few selected areas of significant importance to getting SAR-CoV2 under control in both the nonpharmaceutical and the pharmaceutical phase, i.e. after the development of an effective vaccine.
    Date: 2020
  51. By: Hafeez A. Adekola (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ogun State, Nigeria); Ibrahim A. Adekunle (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ogun State, Nigeria); Haneefat O. Egberongbe (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ogun State, Nigeria); Sefiu A. Onitilo (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ogun State, Nigeria); Idris N. Abdullahi (Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria)
    Abstract: In this study, we examined various forms of mathematical models that are relevant for the containment, risk analysis and features of COVID-19. Greater emphasis was laid on the extension of the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) models for policy relevance in the time of COVID-19. These mathematical models play a significant role in the understanding of COVID-19 transmission mechanisms, structures and features. Considering that the disease has spread sporadically around the world, causing large scale socioeconomic disruption unwitnessed in contemporary ages since World War II, researchers, stakeholders, government and the society at large are actively engaged in finding ways to reduce the rate of infection until a cure or vaccination procedure is established. We advanced argument for the various forms of the mathematical models of epidemics and highlighted their relevance in the containment of COVID-19 at the present time. Mathematical models address the need for understanding the transmission dynamics and other significant factors of the disease that would aid policymakers to make accurate decisions and reduce the rate of transmission of the disease.
    Keywords: Mathematical Models, SIR Models, COVID-19, COVID-19 confirmed cases, COVID-19 attributable deaths
    Date: 2020–01
  52. By: Festus A. Odeyemi (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ogun State, Nigeria); Ibrahim A. Adekunle (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ogun State, Nigeria); Olakitan W. Ogunbanjo (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ogun State, Nigeria); Jamiu B. Folorunso (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ogun State, Nigeria); Thompson Akinbolaji (Biomedical Services, American Red Cross, USA); Idowu B. Olawoye (Redeemer's University, Ede, Osun State, Nigeria)
    Abstract: The rampaging effect of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Africa is huge and have impacted almost every area of life. Across African states, there exist variations in the laboratory measures adopted, and these heterogeneous approaches, in turn, determines the successes or otherwise recorded. In this study, we assessed the various forms of laboratory responses to the containment, risk analyses, structures and features of COVID-19 in high incidence African countries (Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt, Ghana, Algeria, Morocco, etc.) to aid better and efficient laboratory responses to the highly infectious diseases.
    Keywords: Laboratory responses, COVID-19, PCR, Sample Pooling, Africa
    Date: 2020–01
  53. By: Shusaku Sasaki (Corresponding author; Faculty of Economics, Tohoku Gakuin University); Hirofumi Kurokawa (School of Economics and Management, University of Hyogo); Fumio Ohtake (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University)
    Abstract: To control and slow down the spread of COVID-19, policymakers and practitioners are employing messages with elements and wording based on nudges to encourage people fs voluntary behaviors of contact avoidance and infection prevention. However, although existing studies have found that nudge-based messages strengthen their intention to take the behaviors, it is not known whether the messages really promote their actual performance. In the end of April 2020, we conducted a survey experiment on a nationwide sample of Japan through the internet, where we randomly provided to them one of five different nudge-based messages and a message without nudges, and subsequently ascertained their intention to take the contact avoidance and infection prevention behaviors. In the beginning of the following month, May, we further conducted a follow-up survey to determine their actual behavioral changes. The empirical analysis with 5,225 respondents found that only the gAltruistic Message h emphasizing that their behavioral adherence would protect the lives of people close to them reinforced their intentions and also could promote some actual behaviors. However, the similar behavioral changes were not observed for the messages which contained an altruistic element but emphasized it in a loss-frame, or described it as protecting both of their own and others f lives. The message emphasizing only their own benefit were found to have the adverse effect of impeding their intention and behavior. Further analysis revealed that even the gain-framed gAltruistic Message h with the promotional consequences had side effects of deteriorating the quality of sleep and diet and life satisfaction. When employing nudge-based messages as a countermeasure for COVID-19, the policymakers and practitioners need to carefully scrutinize the elements and wording of the messages while considering their potential adverse effects and side effects.
    Keywords: Infectious diseases, nudge, behavioral economics, altruism, physical distance
    JEL: C93 D01 D91 I12
  54. By: Surender Kumar (Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics); Shunsuke Managi (Urban Institute & Departments of Civil Engineering,Kyushu University)
    Abstract: The precipitous spread of COVID-19 has created a conflict between human health and economic well-being. To contain the spread of its contagious effect, India imposed the stringent lockdown, and then the stringency was relaxed to some extent in its succeeding phases. We measure social benefits of the lockdown in terms of improved air quality in Indian cities by quantifying the effects with city-specific slope coefficients. We find that the containment measures have resulted in improvement in air quality, but it is not uniform across cities and across pollutants. The level of PM2.5 decreases from about 6 to 25 percent in many cities. Moreover, we observe that partial relaxations do not help in resuming economic and social activities. It should also be noted that counter-virus measures could not bring levels of the emissions to WHO standards; it highlights the importance of role of green production and consumption activities.
    JEL: Q53 Q52 I18 I15
    Date: 2020–08
  55. By: Liu, Sitian; Su, Yichen
    Abstract: Cities are shaped by the strength of agglomeration and dispersion forces. We show that the COVID-19 pandemic has re-introduced disease transmission as a dispersion force in modern cities. We use detailed housing data to study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the location demand for housing. We find that the pandemic has led to a greater decline in the demand for housing in neighborhoods with high population density. We further show that the reduced demand for density is partially driven by the diminished need of living close to jobs that are telework-compatible and the declining value of access to consumption amenities. Neighborhoods with high pre-COVID-19 home prices also see a greater drop in housing demand. While the national housing market partially recovered in June, we show that the negative effect of the pandemic on the demand for density persists, indicating that the change in the demand for density may last beyond an aggregate recovery of housing demand.
    Keywords: COVID-19, Pandemic, Density, City, Neighborhood, Housing, Location, Telework, Amenity
    JEL: I1 R2 R3
    Date: 2020–07–27
  56. By: Daniel J. Wilson
    Abstract: Using high-frequency panel data for U.S. counties, I estimate the full dynamic response of COVID-19 cases and deaths to exogenous movements in mobility and weather. I find several important results. First, weather and mobility are highly correlated and thus omitting either factor when studying the COVID-19 effects of the other is likely to result in substantial omitted variable bias. Second, temperature is found to have a negative and significant effect on future COVID-19 cases and deaths, though the estimated effect is sensitive to which measure of mobility is included in the regression. Third, controlling for weather, overall mobility is found to have a large positive effect on subsequent growth in COVID-19 cases and deaths. The effects become significant around 2 weeks ahead and persist through around 8 weeks ahead for cases and around 9 weeks ahead for deaths. The peak impact occurs 4 to 6 weeks ahead for cases and around 8 to 9 weeks ahead for deaths. The effects are largest for mobility measured by time spent away from home and time spent at work, though significant effects also are found for time spent at retail and recreation establishments, at transit stations, at grocery stores and pharmacies, and at parks. Fourth, I find that public health non-pharmaceutical interventions affect future COVID-19 cases and deaths, but that their effects work entirely through, and not independent of, individuals' mobility behavior. Lastly, the dynamic effects of mobility on COVID 19 outcomes are found to be generally similar across counties, though there is evidence of larger effects in counties with high cases per capita and that reduced mobility relatively late.
    Keywords: weather; mobility; social distancing; covid-19
    Date: 2020–07–02
  57. By: Pouliakas, Konstantinos (European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (Cedefop))
    Abstract: This paper investigates the incidence, trend and determinants of remote work in Greece. A crisis-stricken country in the years preceding the Covid-19 crisis, Greece entered the first wave of the public health shock as a laggard in digitalisation and remote work arrangements among European countries. While Covid-19 induced a spike in the use of remote work arrangements in many countries, this paper presents evidence that working from home (WfH) in Greece was subdued in the past decade. By analysing the profile of the job tasks and skill needs of Greek homeworkers, the paper also shows marked deviations in homeworking patterns and determinants in Greece, relative to other EU countries. This includes a higher prevalence of WfH among Greek females and non-nationals, limited use by young workers and families with children and a stronger relation with atypical work hours. While remote workers in Greece receive a 7% monthly wage premium, their jobs are found to involve standardised and moderate ICT tasks and to rely more on social serving tasks. The paper highlights that there is significant scope to enhance remote work in Greece, which can amount to up to 37% of all salaried jobs, subject to changing work organisation, norms and policies. In the coronavirus era, overcoming barriers to remote work will be key for the Greek labour market to adapt to social distances practices and digitalisation.
    Keywords: work at home, remote work, teleworking, tasks, skills, COVID-19, Greece
    JEL: C25 J01 J23 J24 J31
    Date: 2020–06
  58. By: Keisuke Kokubun
    Abstract: The threat of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) is increasing. Regarding the difference in the infection rate observed in each region, in addition to studies seeking the cause due to differences in the social distance (population density), there is an increasing trend toward studies seeking the cause due to differences in social capital. However, studies have not yet been conducted on whether social capital could influence the infection rate even if it controls the effect of population density. Therefore, in this paper, we analyzed the relationship between infection rate, population density, and social capital using statistical data for each prefecture. Statistical analysis showed that social capital not only correlates with infection rates and population densities but still has a negative correlation with infection rates controlling for the effects of population density. Besides, controlling the relationship between variables by mean age showed that social capital had a greater correlation with infection rate than population density. In other words, social capital mediates the correlation between population density and infection rates. This means that social distance alone is not enough to deter coronavirus infection, and social capital needs to be recharged.
    Date: 2020–07
  59. By: Eric S. Rosengren
    Abstract: The economy has suffered a truly severe shock from the COVID-19 public health crisis. The unemployment rate has risen very significantly in response to necessary shutdowns intending to limit the health impact of the pandemic. However, even when businesses are free to open, many may face diminished demand until customers once again feel secure leaving their homes, which underlines that public health is at the root of this crisis and its solutions.
    Keywords: COVID-19; employment; money market mutual funds; fiscal policy; monetary policy; pandemic; economic shock; public health; Main Street Lending Program
    Date: 2020–05–19
  60. By: Maria Savona (Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU), University of Sussex)
    Abstract: This note selectively unpacks the rapid evolution of the (Western) debate around the opportunity to deploy contact tracing apps, alongside other digital tools such as apps for symptoms sharing and immunity certificates to mitigate the Covid-19 pandemics. I do so from the perspective of a social scientist interested in the implications of the development of digital tools at times of emergency in terms of data governance. I argue that a more articulated reflection is needed towards the development of a healthy institutional structure that regulates the role of large tech platforms, such as Google and Apple (G&A), and public institutions, in governing data, particularly when health data and public value are involved. I unravel the saga of contact tracing apps in the UK and EU, looking at the technical, legal and ethical aspects and I attempt to draw more general lessons for data governance.
    Keywords: Contact tracing apps, data governance, digital applications, digital exclusion, public trust
    JEL: O33 O38 L51
    Date: 2020–06
  61. By: Eric S. Rosengren
    Abstract: Today, we’re witnessing the pandemic’s stark effects on public health. Meanwhile, the necessary response – social distancing – has stilled our strong economy, disrupting countless lives and livelihoods. It’s also been distorting the credit and liquidity flows that underpin our economy, threatening the greater pain of a full-blown financial crisis. Traditional economic models are challenged by this unique situation. To me, the most important factors are how well we avoid financial spillovers, and how effective the fiscal stimulus is, as well as the progression of COVID-19 infections. These will all impact the speed of the economic recovery. That is not a fatalistic assessment. On the contrary, it should galvanize us.
    Keywords: COVID-19; credit; liquidity; employment; interest rates; money market funds
    Date: 2020–04–01
  62. By: Gustav Engström; Johan Gars; Niko Jaakkola; Therese Lindahl; Daniel Spiro; Arthur A. van Benthem
    Abstract: The coronavirus pandemic has led many countries to initiate unprecedented economic recovery packages. Policymakers tackling the coronavirus crisis have also been encouraged to prioritize policies which help mitigate a second, looming crisis: climate change. We identify and analyze policies that combat both the coronavirus crisis and the climate crisis. We analyze both the long-run climate impacts from coronavirus-related economic recovery policies, and the impacts of long-run climate policies on economic recovery and public health post-recession. We base our analysis on data on emissions, employment and corona-related layoffs across sectors, and on previous research. We show that, among climate policies, labor-intensive green infrastructure projects, planting trees, and in particular pricing carbon coupled with reduced labor taxation boost economic recovery. Among coronavirus policies, aiding services sectors (leisure services such as restaurants and culture, or professional services such as technology), education and the healthcare sector appear most promising, being labor intensive yet low-emission—if such sectoral aid is conditioned on being directed towards employment and on low-carbon supply chains. Large-scale green infrastructure projects and green R&D investment, while good for the climate, are unlikely to generate enough employment to effectively alleviate the coronavirus crisis.
    Keywords: coronavirus, climate policy
    JEL: Q54 E62
    Date: 2020
  63. By: Nidhi KAICKER (School of Business, Public Policy and Social Entrepreneurship, Ambedkar University, India); Katsushi S. IMAI (Department of Economics, The University of Manchester, UK and Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, Japan); Raghav GAIHA (Glovbal Development Institute, University of Manchester, UK and Population Studies Centre, University of Pennsylvania, U.S.A.)
    Abstract: This is the first econometric analysis of severity of Covid-19 pandemic measured using two related but distinct measures of mortality up to 21 June, 2020: one is the Cumulative Severity Ratio (CSR) and the other is Daily Severity Ratio (DSR). The CSR measures the additional pressure on our fragile and ill-equipped healthcare system, and the DSR helps monitor the progression of fatalities. Another important contribution of this analysis is the use of rigorous econometric methodology: random effects models and Hausman-Taylor models. Although the rationales vary, they yield a large core of robust results. The specifications are rich and comprehensive despite heavy data constraints. The factors associated with the CSR and DSR include (lagged) Covid-19 cases, income, age, gender, multi-morbidity, urban population density, lockdown phases and their interactions with three states, Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Meghalaya, weather including temperature and rainfall and their interactions with the two state dummies. Given the paucity of rigorous econometric analyses, our study yields policy insights of considerable significance.
    Keywords: Covid-19, Cumulative severity ratio, Daily severity ratio, Random-Effects model, Hausman-Taylor model, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, India
    JEL: C23 I18 N35 O10
    Date: 2020–08
  64. By: Vimal Ranchhod (School of Economics and SALDRU, University of Cape Town); Reza Daniels (School of Economics and SALDRU, University of Cape Town)
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic is a health crisis that will exacerbate the South African unemployment crisis. As a temporary measure, the lockdown has prevented a substantial number of people from going to work. In addition, the longer term implications of a global recession have not been adequately recognized. This paper conducts an analysis of labour market dynamics in South Africa during the initial period of lockdown, from the end of March to the end of April 2020, using the first wave of the NIDS-CRAM (2020) survey. Within our sample of over 6000 adults aged 18 to 59, we found that there was a very large decrease in employment. The fraction of the sample that was conventionally classified as employed decreased from 57% in February to 48% in April. If we further exclude temporarily absent workers, this fraction decreases further to 38%. Thus, about 1 out of every 3 employed people in our sample either lost their job or did not work and received no wages during April. This has extremely large implications for poverty and welfare. We further analyse the labour market by comparing across demographic groups as defined by race, by gender, by age groups, by geographic areas, and by education levels. The over-arching finding from this analysis is that the job losses were not uniformly distributed amongst the different groups. In particular, groups who have always been more vulnerable – such as women, African/Blacks, youth, and less educated groups – have been disproportionately negatively affected. In addition to the poverty implications, this will also likely affect the inequality situation in South Africa
    Keywords: Labour markets, poverty, unemployment, COVID-19, South Africa
    Date: 2020

This nep-hea issue is ©2020 by Nicolas R. Ziebarth. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.