nep-hea New Economics Papers
on Health Economics
Issue of 2020‒08‒17
58 papers chosen by
Nicolas R. Ziebarth
Cornell University

  1. Endogenous Quality Investments in the U.S. Hospital Market By Craig Garthwaite; Christopher Ody; Amanda Starc
  2. Spousal Peer Effects in Specialty Behavioral Health Services Use: Do Spillovers Vary by Gender, Subscriber Status and Sexual Orientation? By Yazbeck M; Xu H; Azocar F; Ettner SL
  3. E-Cigarettes and Respiratory Disease: A Replication, Extension, and Future Directions By Donald S. Kenkel; Alan D. Mathios; Hua Wang
  4. Roommate effects in health outcomes By Frijters, Paul; Islam, Asad; Lalji, Chitwan; Pakrashi, Debayan
  5. The Association Between Educational Attainment and Longevity using Individual Level Data from the 1940 Census By Adriana Lleras-Muney; Joseph Price; Dahai Yue
  6. The causal effect of road concessions on road safety By Alves, Pedro Jorge; Emanuel, Lucas; Pereira, Rafael Henrique Moreas
  7. Delivering Effective Health Education in Developing Countries: Insights from a Field Experiment in India By Fenella Carpena
  8. Linking Changes in Inequality in Life Expectancy and Mortality: Evidence from Denmark and the United States By Gordon Dahl; Claus Thustrup Kreiner; Torben Heien Nielsen; Benjamin Ly Serena
  9. The Mental Health Effects of Retirement By Picchio, Matteo; van Ours, Jan C.
  10. Conditions of Existence and Subjective Perceptions of Retirement: Quantitative Evidence from France By Bénédicte H. Apouey
  11. Why Retirement, Social Security, and Age Discrimination Policies Need to Consider the Intersectional Experiences of Older Women By Ian Burn; Patrick Button; Theodore F. Figinski; Joanne Song McLaughlin
  12. The Impact of Community Based Health Insurance Schemes on Out-of-Pocket Healthcare Spending: Evidence from Rwanda By Andinet Woldemichael; Daniel Gurara; Abebe Shimeles
  13. The Changing Risk and Burden of Wildfire in the US By Marshall Burke; Anne Driscoll; Jenny Xue; Sam Heft-Neal; Jennifer Burney; Michael Wara
  14. The Effect of Water Filtration on Cholera Mortality By Knutsson, Daniel
  15. Subjective risk belief function in the field: Evidence from cooking fuel choices and health in India By Hide-Fumi Yokoo; Toshi H. Arimura; Mriduchhanda Chattopadhyay; Hajime Katayama
  16. Long-Run Effects of Incentivizing Work After Childbirth By Elira Kuka; Na'ama Shenhav
  17. Armed Conflict and Birth Weight By Le, Kien; Nguyen, My
  18. Did President Trump’s Tulsa Rally Reignite COVID-19? Indoor Events and Offsetting Community Effects By Dhaval M. Dave; Andrew I. Friedson; Kyutaro Matsuzawa; Drew McNichols; Connor Redpath; Joseph J. Sabia
  19. Fear, Lockdown, and Diversion: Comparing Drivers of Pandemic Economic Decline 2020 By Austan Goolsbee; Chad Syverson
  20. Private Precaution and Public Restrictions: What Drives Social Distancing and Industry Foot Traffic in the COVID-19 Era? By Christopher J. Cronin; William N. Evans
  21. How Did COVID-19 and Stabilization Policies Affect Spending and Employment? A New Real-Time Economic Tracker Based on Private Sector Data By Raj Chetty; John N. Friedman; Nathaniel Hendren; Michael Stepner; The Opportunity Insights Team
  22. Implications of the Covid-19 Pandemic for State Government Tax Revenues By Jeffrey Clemens; Stan Veuger
  23. The Spread of COVID-19 in Belgium: a Municipality-Level Analysis By Philip Verwimp
  24. Natural Disasters and Elective Medical Services: How Big is the Bounce-Back? By Tatyana Deryugina; Jonathan Gruber; Adrienne Sabety
  25. Misinformation during a Pandemic By Bursztyn, Leonardo; Rao, Akaash; Roth, Christopher; Yanagizawa-Drott, David
  26. What can we learn about SARS-CoV-2 prevalence from testing and hospital data? By Daniel W. Sacks; Nir Menachemi; Peter Embi; Coady Wing
  27. Messages on COVID-19 Prevention in India Increased Symptoms Reporting and Adherence to Preventive Behaviors Among 25 Million Recipients with Similar Effects on Non-recipient Members of Their Communities By Abhijit Banerjee; Marcella Alsan; Emily Breza; Arun G. Chandrasekhar; Abhijit Chowdhury; Esther Duflo; Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham; Benjamin A. Olken
  28. How Much does COVID-19 Increase with Mobility? Evidence from New York and Four Other U.S. Cities By Edward L. Glaeser; Caitlin S. Gorback; Stephen J. Redding
  29. Early Evidence on the Impact of COVID-19 and the Recession on Older Workers By Truc Thi Mai Bui; Patrick Button; Elyce G. Picciotti
  30. Epidemics in the Neoclassical and New Keynesian Models By Martin S. Eichenbaum; Sergio Rebelo; Mathias Trabandt
  31. COVID-19 and Implications for Automation By Alex W. Chernoff; Casey Warman
  32. COVID-19 and the Demand for Online Food Shopping Services: Empirical Evidence from Taiwan By Hung-Hao Chang; Chad Meyerhoefer
  33. Identifying and addressing employment barriers in Belgium, Korea and Norway: Implementing the OECD Jobs Strategy By Rodrigo Fernandez; Alexander Hijzen; Daniele Pacifico; Stefan Thewissen
  34. What Jobs are Being Done at Home During the Covid-19 Crisis? Evidence from Firm-Level Surveys By Alexander W. Bartik; Zoe B. Cullen; Edward L. Glaeser; Michael Luca; Christopher T. Stanton
  35. Scarring Body and Mind: The Long-Term Belief-Scarring Effects of COVID-19 By Julian Kozlowski; Laura Veldkamp; Venky Venkateswaran
  36. The Intergenerational Welfare Implications of Disease Contagion By Pretnar, Nick
  37. Hospital at Home for Older Adults During COVID-19: A Strategic Approach for Strengthening Geriatric Care Across Health Systems By Sultana, Abida; McKyer, E. Lisako J.; Hossain, Md Mahbub
  38. The Impact of the Ebola Crisis on Mortality and Welfare in Liberia By Shaun Da Costa
  39. COVID-19 and Mental Health Deterioration among BAME Groups in the UK By Eugenio Proto; Climent Quintana-Domeque
  40. Applications of artificial intelligence technologies on mental health research during COVID-19 By Hossain, Md Mahbub; McKyer, E. Lisako J.; Ma, Ping
  41. Corona Pandemic and Bangladesh: Health and Economic Risks and Recommendations By CPD IRBD 2020 Team
  42. The Geography of the Effectiveness and Consequences of Covid-19 Measures: Global Evidence By Simplice A. Asongu; Samba Diop; Joseph Nnanna
  43. Italian workers at risk during the COVID-19 epidemic By Teresa Barbieri; Gaetano Basso; Sergio Scicchitano
  44. F.O.G. and Teleworking: Some Labor Economics of covid-19 By Jacques Bughin; Michele Cincera
  45. Identification and Estimation of Undetected COVID-19 Cases Using Testing Data from Iceland By Karl M. Aspelund; Michael C. Droste; James H. Stock; Christopher D. Walker
  46. Global years of life lost to COVID-19 By Arolas, Héctor Pifarré i; Acosta, Enrique; Casasnovas, Guillem López; Lo, Adeline; Nicodemo, Catia; Riffe, Tim; Myrskylä, Mikko
  47. The Cost of Fear: Impact of Violence Risk on Child Health During Conflict By Tapsoba, Augustin
  48. My Home is My Castle - The Benefits of Working from Home During a Pandemic Crisis: Evidence from Germany By Jean-Victor Alipour; Harald Fadinger; Jan Schymik
  49. Measuring and Managing COVID-19 Model Risk By Mark J. Jensen
  50. The effectiveness of school closures and other pre-lockdown COVID-19 mitigation strategies in Argentina, Italy, and South Korea By Neidhöfer, Guido; Neidhöfer, Claudio
  51. What Can the Service Delivery Indicator Surveys Tell Us about COVID-19 Preparedness ? By Sharma,Jigyasa; Andrews,Kathryn Gilman; Conner,Ruben Orion; Gatti,Roberta V.
  52. Gauging the Laboratory Responses to Coronavirus Disease (Covid-19) in Africa By Festus A. Odeyemi; Ibrahim A. Adekunle; Olakitan W. Ogunbanjo; Jamiu B. Folorunso; Thompson Akinbolaji; Idowu B. Olawoye
  53. Why do some countries have more COVID-19 cases than others? Evidence from 70 most affected countries sans China By Toufique, M. M. K.
  54. The COVID-19 Pandemic in a Monetary Schumpeterian Model By He, Qichun
  55. How does the COVID-19 pandemic affect housing prices in China? By Chong, Terence Tai Leung; Liu, Hengliang
  56. The Situation is Serious, but Not Hopeless - Evidence-Based Considerations on the Intra-Couple Division of Childcare before, during and after the Covid-19 Lockdown By Christina Boll; Simone Schüller
  57. Understanding the Heterogeneity of Covid-19 Deaths and Contagions: The Role of Air Pollution and Lockdown Decisions. By Becchetti, Leonardo; Conzo, Gianluigi; Conzo, Pierluigi; Salustri, Francesco
  58. A tale of two wage subsidies: The American and Australian fiscal responses to COVID-19 By Steven Hamilton

  1. By: Craig Garthwaite; Christopher Ody; Amanda Starc
    Abstract: High and increasing hospital prices have led to calls for price regulation. If prices are high because of consolidation, regulating prices could enhance welfare. However, high prices could also reflect increased willingness to pay by privately insured consumers for clinical and non-clinical quality. If so, regulating prices could reduce quality. We present a model of strategic quality choice where hospitals make quality investments to increase private revenue. We confirm the model's predictions across numerous quality measures including patient satisfaction, hospital processes, risk adjusted mortality, the revealed preferences of current Medicare patients, technology adoption, physician quality, and ED wait times.
    JEL: I11
    Date: 2020–06
  2. By: Yazbeck M (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada and School of Economics, University of Queensland, Queensland Australia.); Xu H (Division of General Internal Medicine and Health Services Research, Department of Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California - Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California.); Azocar F (Optum Health Behavioral Solutions. San Francisco.); Ettner SL (Division of General Internal Medicine and Health Services Research, Department of Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California - Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California; Department of Health Policy and Management, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California - Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California.)
    Abstract: This paper fills gaps in the literature on spousal peer effects in mental health outcomes by investigating spousal spillover effects in a potential mediator, health investment decisions. We relate the subject’s behavioral healthcare use to her partner’s lagged decision, and exploit the rich set of characteristics available (including the subject’s past use and diagnoses) to control for assortative mating. Given that spillover effects may be asymmetric, we stratify analyses by subscriber’s status, gender and couple type. Results show positive significant spousal peer effects in behavioural healthcare use, driven primarily by individual psychotherapy visits. Spillover effects are stronger for females than males in heterosexual couples and for males in same-sex vs. heterosexual couples. Estimates are robust to various sensitivity analyses. Spousal spillover effects in individual psychotherapy use represent up to 76% of the impact of depression for female in heterosexual couples and up 91% for men who are in same-sex couples.
    Keywords: Health care use, Spillovers, Mental Health, Household behaviour.
    JEL: D19 I12 I31 J15
    Date: 2020–07
  3. By: Donald S. Kenkel; Alan D. Mathios; Hua Wang
    Abstract: Electronic cigarettes show potential to reduce the harms from smoking combustible tobacco, but there is uncertainty about the long-term health consequences. We replicate and extend the study by Bhatta and Glantz (20192), which reports longitudinal statistical associations between e-cigarette use and long-term respiratory disease. We are able to closely replicate their results. When we use a more flexible empirical specification, among respondents who had never smoked combustible tobacco, we find no evidence that current or former e-cigarette use is associated with respiratory disease. The statistical associations between e-cigarette use and respiratory disease are driven by e-cigarette users who are also current or former smokers of combustible tobacco. A striking feature of the data is that almost all e-cigarette users were either current or former smokers of combustible tobacco. We then discuss the potential for future applied econometric research to credibly identify the causal effects of e-cigarette use on health. Challenges include the potential selection biases that stem from the complex set of consumer choices to initiate and quit smoking combustible tobacco, use of e-cigarettes, and dual use of both products. We suggest using a variety of identification strategies to uncover the causal effects that use a variety of econometric methods.
    JEL: I12
    Date: 2020–07
  4. By: Frijters, Paul; Islam, Asad; Lalji, Chitwan; Pakrashi, Debayan
    Abstract: We use randomized roommate assignment in dormitories in a college in Kolkata in India to examine peer effects in weight gains among roommates. We use administrative data on weight, height, and test scores of students at the time of college admission and then survey these students at the end of their first and second years in college. We do not find any significant roommate specific peer effect in weight gain. Our results rather suggest that an obese roommate reduces the probability that the other roommates become obese in subsequent years. We examine potential mechanism using survey data on students' eating habits, smoking, exercise, and sleeping patterns. We find that obese roommates sleep longer, which in turn improves the sleep pattern of others, which might explain the weak negative effect of obese roommates on the weight of others in the same room.
    Keywords: health outcomes; obesity; peer effects; random dormitory assignment
    JEL: D90
    Date: 2019–08–01
  5. By: Adriana Lleras-Muney; Joseph Price; Dahai Yue
    Abstract: We combine newly released individual data from the 1940 full-count census with death records and other information available in family trees to create the largest individual data to date to study the association between years of schooling and age at death. Conditional on surviving to age 35, one additional year of education is associated with roughly 0.4 more years of life for both men and women for cohorts born 1906-1915. This association is close to linear but exhibits strong credentialing effects, particularly for men, and is substantially smaller for cohorts born earlier. This association varies substantially by state of birth, but it is not smaller in states with higher levels of education or longevity. For men the association is stronger in places with greater incomes, higher quality of school, and larger investments in public health. Women also exhibit great heterogeneity in the association, but our measures of the childhood environment do not explain it.
    JEL: I10 I20 J10
    Date: 2020–07
  6. By: Alves, Pedro Jorge; Emanuel, Lucas; Pereira, Rafael Henrique Moreas
    Abstract: Reducing road fatalities is a key policy concern in several countries. Nonetheless, there is limited evidence on whether highway concessions and Public Private Partnerships (PPP) can bring road safety benefits, despite the growing number of countries adopting this policy to finance and manage road infrastructure. In this paper, we use a difference-in-differences approach to examine the causal effect of highway concessions on road safety outcomes using daily crash data from Brazilian Federal highways between 2007-2017. We find that concessions significantly improve road safety measures, including fatality rates and the number of people and vehicles involved in crashes. On average, procured roads had 15 fewer deaths then publicly managed highways for every 1000 crashes each year, and avoided 16 thousand deaths between 2007-2017. Moreover, these effects are marginally larger for every additional year of treatment but only become statistically significant a few years after the concession implementation. Finally, our results suggest that including safety-based incentives in concession contracts can substantially improve road safety performance
    Date: 2020–07–15
  7. By: Fenella Carpena (Oslo Business School, Oslo Metropolitan University)
    Abstract: Health education programs for the general public have long been a popular and widely used policy tool to prevent disease and improve well-being. While a large literature has examined the effects of such programs on health outcomes, the effective modes of delivery of health education---particularly in developing countries---have received much less attention. This short paper considers two practicable yet largely unexplored avenues for implementing health education interventions: (1) using videos---a low-cost and easily scalable delivery channel; and (2) providing participants with a pay-for-performance cash reward for post-program health literacy. Employing a randomized field experiment in India, I find that video-based health education successfully increased health knowledge. Importantly, these gains persist almost one year later and correspond with more nutritious diets. At the same time, pay-for-performance incentives generally do not appear to boost the efficacy of health education. These insights contribute to our knowledge of what works for health education in low-income settings, so that better health education initiatives can be crafted for more meaningful impact.
    Date: 2020–06–29
  8. By: Gordon Dahl; Claus Thustrup Kreiner; Torben Heien Nielsen; Benjamin Ly Serena
    Abstract: We decompose changing gaps in life expectancy between rich and poor into differential changes in age-specific mortality rates and differences in “survivability”. Declining age-specific mortality rates increases life expectancy, but the gain is small if the likelihood of living to this age is small (ex ante survivability) or if the expected remaining lifetime is short (ex post survivability). Lower survivability of the poor explains half of the recent rise in life expectancy inequality in the US and the entire rise in Denmark. Cardiovascular mortality declines favored the poor, but differences in lifestyle-related survivability led inequality to rise.
    JEL: H51 I14 J11
    Date: 2020–07
  9. By: Picchio, Matteo; van Ours, Jan C.
    Abstract: We study the retirement effects on mental health using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design based on the eligibility age to the state pension in the Netherlands. We find that the mental effects are heterogeneous by gender and marital status. Retirement of partnered men positively affects mental health of both themselves and their partners. Single men retiring experience a drop in mental health. Female retirement has hardly any effect on their own mental health or the mental health of their partners. Part of the effects seem to be driven by loneliness after retirement.
    Keywords: Happiness; health; regression dicontinuity; retirement; Well-being
    JEL: H55 J14 J26
    Date: 2019–11
  10. By: Bénédicte H. Apouey (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: This article explores subjective perceptions of retirement in France, using original quantitative data on the customers of a not-for-profit insurance company. The sample contains individuals aged 4084, who are either in the labour force (N=923) or retired (N=705). Perceptions of retirement are measured using closed questions on views of the retirement transition (these views can be positive, negative, or neutral) and definitions of retirement (retirement can be interpreted as a period of freedom, boredom, greater risk of precariousness, etc.). Using a number of different social indicators, we examine whether differences in social conditions translate into heterogeneous perceptions. We also investigate whether social differences in perceptions fade away with increasing age. Both working-age individuals and retirees generally have a positive view of the retirement transition and often define retirement as a period of freedom. Perceptions of retirement are shaped by social conditions: a higher level of education and income, greater wealth, better health, and stronger social involvement go hand in hand with rosier perceptions. Moreover, we uncover a strengthening of this social gradient with increasing age. Finally, perceptions are positively correlated with satisfaction in various domains, for retirees.
    Keywords: Retirement,Career's end,Ageing,Perceptions,Social conditions,Satisfaction,France
    Date: 2020–07
  11. By: Ian Burn; Patrick Button; Theodore F. Figinski; Joanne Song McLaughlin
    Abstract: We provide an overview of research that indicates that older women face unique challenges and opportunities with respect to work, retirement, Social Security, and age discrimination law. We present estimates of poverty by age and sex, showing that poverty increases with age for women due to older women often outliving their spouses and becoming widowed. We discuss research that shows that women benefit more than men from working longer. We then note that older women face intersectional discrimination that can unfortunately be a barrier to older women working longer. We detail how older women often “fall between the cracks” of the Age Discrimination in Employment Act and Title VII of the Civil Rights Act and are thus not well protected against this intersectional discrimination. As a final example of how women face different circumstances, we summarize research on how older women were differentially negatively impacted by the elimination of Social Security’s Retirement Earnings.
    JEL: H55 J14 J16 J7 K31
    Date: 2020–06
  12. By: Andinet Woldemichael; Daniel Gurara; Abebe Shimeles
    Abstract: Achieving universal health coverage, including financial risk protection and access to quality essential health-care services, is one of the main Sustainable Development Goals. In low-income countries, innovative and affordable health financing systems are key to realize these goals. This paper assesses the impacts of Community-Based Health Insurance Scheme in Rwanda on health-related financial risks using a nationally representative household survey data collected over a ten-year period. We find that the scheme significantly reduce annual per capita out-of-pocket spending by about 3,600 Rwandan Franc (about US$12) or about 83 percent of average per capita healthcare expenditure compared to the baseline level in 2000.The impacts however favor the rich as compared to the poor. The program also reduces the incidence of catastrophic healthcare spending significantly.
    Keywords: Consumer price indexes;Demographic indicators;Health insurance;Poverty;Health care;Healthcare spending,low-income,Rwanda,out-of-pocket,treatment effect,endogeneity,quartile,healthcare service
    Date: 2019–02–22
  13. By: Marshall Burke; Anne Driscoll; Jenny Xue; Sam Heft-Neal; Jennifer Burney; Michael Wara
    Abstract: Recent dramatic and deadly increases in global wildfire activity have increased attention on the causes of wildfires, their consequences, and how risk from fire might be mitigated. Here we bring together data on the changing risk and societal burden of wildfire in the US. We estimate that nearly 50 million homes are currently in the wildland-urban interface in the US, a number increasing by 1 million houses every 3 years. Using a statistical model that links satellite-based fire and smoke data to pollution monitoring stations, we estimate that wildfires have accounted for up to 25% of PM 2.5 in recent years across the US, and up to half in some Western regions. We then show that ambient exposure to smoke-based PM 2.5 does not follow traditional socioeconomic exposure gradients. Finally, using stylized scenarios, we show that fuels management interventions have large but uncertain impacts on health outcomes, and that future health impacts from climate-change-induced wildfire smoke could approach projected overall increases in temperature-related mortality from climate change. We draw lessons for research and policy.
    JEL: I14 Q53
    Date: 2020–06
  14. By: Knutsson, Daniel (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN))
    Abstract: There is debate among researchers regarding the importance of water filtration in reducing mortality during the epidemiological transition. However, there is limited research on how water filtration affected cholera mortality during the second half of the 19th century. Using historical microdata, this paper provides new evidence on the importance of water filtration in reducing cholera mortality during an outbreak. The results show that access to filtered water protected almost completely against cholera mortality. Water filtration could thereby have contributed more to mortality decline than what has previously been documented.
    Keywords: Water; Piped water; Filtered water; Cholera; Mortality; Public health
    JEL: H51 I11 I18 N30
    Date: 2020–06–29
  15. By: Hide-Fumi Yokoo (Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, Naka 2-1, Kunitachi, Tokyo 186-8601, Japan & Management (RIEEM), Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 169-8050, Japan.); Toshi H. Arimura (Faculty of Political Science and Economics & Research Institute for Environmental Economics and Management (RIEEM), Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 169-8050, Japan.); Mriduchhanda Chattopadhyay (Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 169-8050, Japan.); Hajime Katayama (Faculty of Commerce & Research Institute for Environmental Economics and Management (RIEEM), Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 169-8050, Japan.)
    Abstract: We investigate the accuracy of the perceptions of health risks in India. To examine systematic risk misperception, which is relevant to policy debates, we present the concept of the subjective risk belief function (SRBF). The context of our study is the risk of developing physical symptoms related to household air pollution caused by cooking. Using field data collected from 588 respondents in 17 villages in West Bengal, we regress the probability of symptoms conditional on fuel choices to estimate the respondent-specific health risk changes. Then, we elicit the subjective probabilistic beliefs using an interactive method with visual aids. Considering the estimated risks as objective risks, we estimate the linear SRBF. Our estimated coefficient of the average SRBF is in the range of 0.58 to 0.79, which implies a slight underestimation of the change in risk when switching from cooking with firewood to cooking with liquefied petroleum gas, although the respondents have a qualitatively accurate belief. We further find that risk misperception is correlated with religion but not with age or education.
    Keywords: Belief; Cooking fuel choice; Health risk; India; Risk misperception; Subjective probabilistic expectation
    JEL: D83 D84 I12 O13 Q53
    Date: 2020–08
  16. By: Elira Kuka; Na'ama Shenhav
    Abstract: This paper uses a panel of SSA earnings linked to the CPS to estimate the impact of increasing post-childbirth work incentives on mothers' long-run career trajectories. We implement a novel research design that exploits variation in the timing of the 1993 reform of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) around a woman's first birth and in eligibility for the credit. We find that single mothers exposed to the expansion immediately after a first birth ("early-exposed") have 3 to 4 p.p. higher employment in the 5 years after a first birth than single mothers exposed 3 to 6 years after a first birth ("late-exposed"). Ten to nineteen years after a first birth, early-exposed mothers have the same employment and hours as late-exposed mothers, but have accrued 0.5 to 0.6 more years of work experience and have 6 percent higher earnings. Incorporating long-run effects on EITC benefits and earnings increases the implied marginal value of public funds (MVPF) of the expansion. Our results suggest that there are steep returns to work incentives at childbirth that accumulate over the life-cycle.
    JEL: H20 H24 J16 J20 J22 J24
    Date: 2020–06
  17. By: Le, Kien; Nguyen, My
    Abstract: This paper investigates the hidden yet persistent cost of conflict to birth weight outcomes for 53 developing countries experiencing conflict in the past three decades (1990-2018). Exploiting the variation across districts and conception months-years, we find that intrauterine exposure to armed conflict in the first trimester of pregnancy reduces child’s weight at birth by 2.8% and raises the incidence of low birth weight by 3.2 percentage points. Infants born to poor and low educated mothers are especially vulnerable to the adverse repercussions of armed conflict. Given the long-lasting consequences of poor infant health over the life cycle, our findings call for global efforts in the prevention and mitigation of conflict. Extra attention should be directed to children and women from disadvantaged backgrounds.
    Keywords: Armed Conflict, Birth Weight, Intergenerational Effects, Developing Countries
    JEL: I15 J13 O15
    Date: 2019
  18. By: Dhaval M. Dave; Andrew I. Friedson; Kyutaro Matsuzawa; Drew McNichols; Connor Redpath; Joseph J. Sabia
    Abstract: On June 20, 2020, President Donald J. Trump held his first mass campaign rally following the outbreak of COVID-19. Held in Tulsa, Oklahoma, the political gathering attracted 6,000 to 12,000 individuals to the indoor Bank of Oklahoma (BOK) arena. This study is the first to explore the impact of this event on the spread of COVID-19. First, using data from Safegraph Inc, we show that while non-resident visits to census block groups hosting the Trump event grew by approximately 25 percent, there was no decline in net stay-at-home behavior in Tulsa county, reflecting important offsetting behavioral effects. Then, using data on coronavirus cases from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and a synthetic control design, we find little evidence that COVID-19 case growth grew more rapidly in Tulsa County, its border counties, or in the state of Oklahoma than each’s estimated counterfactual in the three weeks following the campaign rally. Difference-in-differences estimates further provide no evidence that COVID-19 case rates grew faster in counties that drew relatively larger shares of residents to the event. We conclude that offsetting behavioral responses to the rally — including voluntary closures of restaurants and bars in downtown Tulsa, increases in stay-at-home behavior, displacement of usual activities of weekend inflows, and smaller-than-expected crowd attendance — may be important mechanisms.
    JEL: H75 I1
    Date: 2020–07
  19. By: Austan Goolsbee; Chad Syverson
    Abstract: The collapse of economic activity in 2020 from COVID-19 has been immense. An important question is how much of that resulted from government restrictions on activity versus people voluntarily choosing to stay home to avoid infection. This paper examines the drivers of the collapse using cellular phone records data on customer visits to more than 2.25 million individual businesses across 110 different industries. Comparing consumer behavior within the same commuting zones but across boundaries with different policy regimes suggests that legal shutdown orders account for only a modest share of the decline of economic activity (and that having county-level policy data is significantly more accurate than state-level data). While overall consumer traffic fell by 60 percentage points, legal restrictions explain only 7 of that. Individual choices were far more important and seem tied to fears of infection. Traffic started dropping before the legal orders were in place; was highly tied to the number of COVID deaths in the county; and showed a clear shift by consumers away from larger/busier stores toward smaller/less busy ones in the same industry. States repealing their shutdown orders saw identically modest recoveries--symmetric going down and coming back. The shutdown orders did, however, have significantly reallocate consumer activity away from “nonessential” to “essential” businesses and from restaurants and bars toward groceries and other food sellers.
    JEL: E6 H7 L51
    Date: 2020–06
  20. By: Christopher J. Cronin; William N. Evans
    Abstract: We examine the role of state and local policies to encourage social distancing, including stay at home orders, public school closures, and restrictions on restaurants, entertainment, and large social gatherings. Outcomes come from cell phone records and include foot traffic in six industries (essential and nonessential retail, entertainment, hotel, restaurant, and business services) plus the fraction of cell phones that are home all day. Structural break models show mobility series at the national and state levels start to change dramatically in a short window from March 8-14, well before state or local restrictions of note are in place. In difference-in-difference models, declarations of state of emergency reduce foot traffic and increase social distancing. Stay at home restrictions explain a modest fraction of the change in behavior across outcomes. Industry-specific restrictions have large impacts. For example, restrictions on dining in restaurants reduce traffic in restaurants, hotels, and nonessential retail. Private, self-regulating behavior explains more than three-quarters of the decline in foot traffic in most industries. Restrictive regulation explains half the decline in foot traffic in essential retail and 75 percent of the increase in the fraction home all day. In this latter result, public school closings have a substantial effect.
    JEL: I12 I18
    Date: 2020–07
  21. By: Raj Chetty; John N. Friedman; Nathaniel Hendren; Michael Stepner; The Opportunity Insights Team
    Abstract: We build a publicly available platform that tracks economic activity at a granular level in real time using anonymized data from private companies. We report daily statistics on consumer spending, business revenues, employment rates, and other key indicators disaggregated by county, industry, and income group. Using these data, we study the mechanisms through which COVID-19 affected the economy by analyzing heterogeneity in its impacts across geographic areas and income groups. We first show that high-income individuals reduced spending sharply in mid-March 2020, particularly in areas with high rates of COVID-19 infection and in sectors that require physical interaction. This reduction in spending greatly reduced the revenues of businesses that cater to high-income households in person, notably small businesses in affluent ZIP codes. These businesses laid o↵ most of their low-income employees, leading to a surge in unemployment claims in affluent areas. Building on this diagnostic analysis, we use event study designs to estimate the causal effects of policies aimed at mitigating the adverse impacts of COVID. State-ordered reopenings of economies have little impact on local employment. Stimulus payments to low-income households increased consumer spending sharply, but had modest impacts on employment in the short run, perhaps because very little of the increased spending flowed to businesses most affected by the COVID-19 shock. Paycheck Protection Program loans have also had little impact on employment at small businesses. These results suggest that traditional macroeconomic tools – stimulating aggregate demand or providing liquidity to businesses – may have diminished capacity to restore employment when consumer spending is constrained by health concerns. During a pandemic, it may be more fruitful to mitigate economic hardship through social insurance. More broadly, this analysis illustrates how real-time economic tracking using private sector data can help rapidly identify the origins of economic crises and facilitate ongoing evaluation of policy impacts.
    JEL: E0 H0 J0
    Date: 2020–06
  22. By: Jeffrey Clemens; Stan Veuger
    Abstract: We assess the Covid-19 pandemic’s implications for state government sales and income tax revenues. We estimate that the economic declines implied by recent forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office will lead to a shortfall of roughly $106 billion in states’ sales and income tax revenues for the 2021 fiscal year. This is equivalent to 0.5 percent of GDP and 11.5 percent of our pre-Covid sales and income tax projection. Additional tax shortfalls from the second quarter of 2020 may amount to roughly $42 billion. We discuss how these revenue declines fit into several pieces of the broader economic context. These include other revenues (e.g., university tuition and fees) that are also at risk, as well as assets (e.g., pension plan holdings) that are at risk. Further dimensions of context include support enacted through several pieces of federal legislation, as well as spending needs necessitated by the public health crisis itself.
    JEL: H10 H12 H71 H79
    Date: 2020–06
  23. By: Philip Verwimp
    Abstract: In this contribution I analyse socio-economic and demographic correlates of the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic across Belgian municipalities. I am interested in the onset of the epidemic, its intensity early on as well as the growth of contaminations in April. The paper uses contamination data from Sciensano, the Belgian health agency in charge of epidemiological information. In the period under investigation, March and April 2020, Belgium used a uniform and restrictive test policy for COVID-19, which changed on May 4th. The data are completed with socio-economic and demographic data published by governmental agencies. Employing linear and log-linear models I find that COVID-19 spread faster in larger, more densely populated, higher income municipalities with more elderly people and a larger share of the elderly population residing in care homes. Richer municipalities managed to slow down the epidemic in April more compared to poorer ones. Municipalities which were more exposed to migration, foreign travel for business, leisure or family affairs were affected earlier on in the epidemic. Income correlates with the contamination rate in particular in the Flemish Region whereas the share of foreign nationalities correlates with the contamination rate in particular in the Walloon Region.
    Keywords: COVID-19; regression analysis; municipality; Belgium
    Date: 2020–07
  24. By: Tatyana Deryugina; Jonathan Gruber; Adrienne Sabety
    Abstract: COVID-19 has created a dual set of stresses on health care systems worldwide: a rise in expensive intensive care services and a dramatic decline in elective services. The U.S. government has responded with both grant and loan programs to help health care providers weather the storm. But the optimal size and nature of such programs are hard to evaluate without an understanding of the ability of providers to make up their lost elective service revenues over time. In this paper, we study the closest relevant parallel to the reduction in elective services seen under COVID-19: hurricanes. We match information on hurricanes to data on Medicare hospital elective visits and charges from 1997-2013, comparing counties impacted by hurricanes to nearby unaffected counties. We find that the average hurricane reduces elective services by about 7% in the month it makes landfall. For the most severe hurricanes, we estimate a reduction of more than 20%. Services return to baseline fairly rapidly, but for severe hurricanes it takes a year or more to make up lost revenues. Projections based on variation in hurricane severity suggest that it will take over 3 years for providers to make up the lost revenue from COVID-19.
    JEL: H12 I11 Q54
    Date: 2020–07
  25. By: Bursztyn, Leonardo (University of Chicago and NBER); Rao, Akaash (Harvard University); Roth, Christopher (University of Warwick, CAGE Warwick, CESifo, CEPR); Yanagizawa-Drott, David (University of Zurich and CEPR,)
    Abstract: We study the effects of COVID-19 coverage early in the pandemic by the two most popular cable news shows in the US, both on Fox News, on health outcomes. We document large differences in content between the shows and in cautious behavior among viewers. Through both a selection-on-observablesstrategy and a novel instrumental variable approach, we find that areas with greater exposure to the show downplaying the threat of COVID-19 experienced a greater number of cases and deaths. We assess magnitudes through an epidemiological model highlighting the role of externalities and provide evidence that misinformation is a key underlying mechanism.
    Keywords: Media ; Health ; Coronavirus JEL codes: D1 ; I31 ; Z13
    Date: 2020
  26. By: Daniel W. Sacks; Nir Menachemi; Peter Embi; Coady Wing
    Abstract: Measuring the prevalence of active SARS-CoV-2 infections is difficult because tests are conducted on a small and non-random segment of the population. But people admitted to the hospital for non-COVID reasons are tested at very high rates, even though they do not appear to be at elevated risk of infection. This sub-population may provide valuable evidence on prevalence in the general population. We estimate upper and lower bounds on the prevalence of the virus in the general population and the population of non-COVID hospital patients under weak assumptions on who gets tested, using Indiana data on hospital inpatient records linked to SARS-CoV-2 virological tests. The non-COVID hospital population is tested fifty times as often as the general population. By mid-June, we estimate that prevalence was between 0.01 and 4.1 percent in the general population and between 0.6 to 2.6 percent in the non-COVID hospital population. We provide and test conditions under which this non-COVID hospitalization bound is valid for the general population. The combination of clinical testing data and hospital records may contain much more information about the state of the epidemic than has been previously appreciated. The bounds we calculate for Indiana could be constructed at relatively low cost in many other states.
    Date: 2020–08
  27. By: Abhijit Banerjee; Marcella Alsan; Emily Breza; Arun G. Chandrasekhar; Abhijit Chowdhury; Esther Duflo; Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham; Benjamin A. Olken
    Abstract: During health crises, like COVID-19, individuals are inundated with messages promoting health-preserving behavior. Does additional light-touch messaging by a credible individual change behavior? Do the features of the message matter? To answer this, we conducted a large-scale messaging campaign in West Bengal, India. Twenty-five million individuals were sent an SMS containing a 2.5-minute clip, delivered by West Bengal native and 2019 Nobel laureate Abhijit Banerjee. All messages encouraged reporting symptoms to the local public health worker. In addition, each message emphasizes one health-preserving behavior (distancing or hygiene) and one motivation for action (effects on everyone or just on self). Further, some messages addressed concerns about ostracism of the infected. Messages were randomized at the PIN code level. As control, three million individuals received a message pointing them to government information. The campaign (i) doubled the reporting of health symptoms to the community health workers (p = 0.001 for fever, p = 0.024 for respiratory symptoms); (ii) decreased travel beyond one’s village in the last two days by 20% (p = 0.026) (on a basis of 37% in control) and increased estimated hand-washing when returning home by 7% (p = 0.044) (67.5% in control); (iii) spilled over to behaviors not mentioned in the message – mask-wearing was never mentioned but increased 2% (p = 0.042), while distancing and hygiene both increased in the sample where they were not mentioned by similar amounts as where they were mentioned; (iv) spilled over onto nonrecipients within the same community, with effects similar to those for individuals who received the messages.
    JEL: D8 D83 I1 I15 I18 O1
    Date: 2020–07
  28. By: Edward L. Glaeser; Caitlin S. Gorback; Stephen J. Redding
    Abstract: How effective are restrictions on geographic mobility in limiting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic? Using zip code data for Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, New York (NYC), and Philadelphia, we estimate that total COVID-19 cases per capita decrease on average by approximately 20 percent for every ten percentage point fall in mobility between February and May 2020. To address endogeneity concerns, we instrument for travel by the share of workers in remote work friendly occupations, and find a somewhat larger average decline of COVID-19 cases per capita of 27 percent. Using weekly data by zip code for NYC and a panel data specification including week and zip code fixed effects, we estimate a similar average decline of around 17 percent, which becomes larger when we measure mobility using NYC turnstile data rather than cellphone data. We find substantial heterogeneity across both space and over time, with stronger effects for NYC, Boston and Philadelphia than for Atlanta and Chicago, and the largest estimated coefficients for NYC in the early stages of the pandemic.
    JEL: H12 I12 J17 R41
    Date: 2020–07
  29. By: Truc Thi Mai Bui; Patrick Button; Elyce G. Picciotti
    Abstract: We summarize some of the early effects and discuss possible future effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and recession on the employment outcomes of older workers in the United States. We start by discussing what we know about how older workers faired in prior recessions in the United States and how COVID-19 and this recession may differ. We then estimate some early effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and recession on employment and unemployment rates by age group and sex using Current Population Survey data. We calculate employment and unemployment rates multiple ways to account for the complicated employment situation and possible errors in survey enumeration. We find that while previous recessions, in some ways, did not affect employment outcomes for older workers as much, this recession disproportionately affected older workers of ages 65 and older. For example, we find that unemployment rates in April 2020 increased to 15.43% for those ages 65 and older, compared to 12.99% for those ages 25-44. We also find that COVID-19 and the recession disproportionately affected women, where women have reached higher unemployment rates than men, which was consistent for all age groups and unemployment rate measures we used.
    JEL: I14 J14 J16 J26
    Date: 2020–06
  30. By: Martin S. Eichenbaum; Sergio Rebelo; Mathias Trabandt
    Abstract: We analyze the effects of an epidemic in three standard macroeconomic models. We find that the neoclassical model does not rationalize the positive comovement of consumption and investment observed in recessions associated with an epidemic. Introducing monopolistic competition into the neoclassical model remedies this shortcoming even when prices are completely flexible. Finally, sticky prices lead to a larger recession but do not fundamentally alter the predictions of the monopolistic competition model.
    JEL: E1 H0 I1
    Date: 2020–06
  31. By: Alex W. Chernoff; Casey Warman
    Abstract: COVID-19 may accelerate the automation of jobs, as employers invest in technology to adapt the production process to safeguard against current and potential future pandemics. We identify occupations that have high automation potential and also exhibit a high degree of risk of viral infection. We then examine regional variation in terms of which local labor markets are most at risk. Next we outline the differential impact that COVID-19 may have on automatable jobs for different demographic groups. We find that occupations held by mid-educated females are at highest risk, notably including some healthcare, office and administrative support, and protective service occupations.
    JEL: I10 I14 I24 J15 J16 J23 J24 R12
    Date: 2020–07
  32. By: Hung-Hao Chang; Chad Meyerhoefer
    Abstract: We investigate how the coronavirus pandemic affected the demand for online food shopping services using data from the largest agri-food e-commerce platform in Taiwan. We find that an additional confirmed case of COVID-19 increased sales by 5.7% and the number of customers by 4.9%. The demand for grains, fresh fruit and vegetables, and frozen foods increased the most, which benefited small farms over agribusinesses. Online food shopping was highly responsive to COVID-19 media coverage and online content. Because Taiwan did not impose a stay-at-home order, the demand for online food shopping may be similar in other countries after they lift mobility restrictions.
    JEL: I10 Q13
    Date: 2020–06
  33. By: Rodrigo Fernandez; Alexander Hijzen; Daniele Pacifico; Stefan Thewissen
    Abstract: This paper documents joblessness in OECD countries, provides a detailed diagnosis of structural employment barriers in Belgium, Korea and Norway by applying the OECD Faces of Joblessness methodology to the situation just before the COVID-19 crisis and discusses the policy implications. It shows that individuals experiencing major employment difficulties often face a combination of barriers related to work availability, readiness and incentives. It suggests a number of avenues for enhancing the effectiveness of public support: i) make greater use of statistical profiling tools to adapt programmes to the needs of the jobless and target resources to those at the highest risk of long-term joblessness; ii) better coordinate support provided by employment, health and education services; iii) place a greater emphasis on preventive policies (equal opportunities, life-long learning).
    JEL: J21 J22 J68
    Date: 2020–08–11
  34. By: Alexander W. Bartik; Zoe B. Cullen; Edward L. Glaeser; Michael Luca; Christopher T. Stanton
    Abstract: The threat of COVID-19 has increased the health risks of going to an office or factory, leading more workers to do their jobs remotely. In this paper, we provide results from firm surveys on both small and large businesses on the prevalence and productivity of remote work, and expectations about the persistence of remote work once the COVID-19 crisis ends. We present four main findings. First, while overall levels of remote work are high, there is considerable variation across industries. The Dingel and Neiman (2020) measure of suitability for remote work does a remarkably good job of predicting the industry level patterns of remote work - highlighting the challenge of moving many industries to remote work. Second, remote work is much more common in industries with better educated and better paid workers. Third, in our larger survey, employers think that there has been less productivity loss from remote working in better educated and higher paid industries. Fourth, more than one-third of firms that had employees switch to remote work believe that remote work will remain more common at their company even after the COVID-19 crisis ends.
    JEL: J01 J24 M5 O3
    Date: 2020–06
  35. By: Julian Kozlowski; Laura Veldkamp; Venky Venkateswaran
    Abstract: The largest economic cost of the COVID-19 pandemic could arise from changes in behavior long after the immediate health crisis is resolved. A potential source of such a long-lived change is scarring of beliefs, a persistent change in the perceived probability of an extreme, negative shock in the future. We show how to quantify the extent of such belief changes and determine their impact on future economic outcomes. We find that the long-run costs for the U.S. economy from this channel is many times higher than the estimates of the short-run losses in output. This suggests that, even if a vaccine cures everyone in a year, the Covid-19 crisis will leave its mark on the US economy for many years to come.
    JEL: E0 G12
    Date: 2020–06
  36. By: Pretnar, Nick
    Abstract: Using endogenous, age-dependent measures of the value of statistical lives (VSL), this paper examines the demographic implications of recessions driven by disease contagions. Depending on the age-distribution mortality profile of the disease, long-run welfare losses resulting from the recession may outweigh lost VSL’s directly attributable to the disease. This is because disease contagions that induce high levels of hospitalization simultaneously impact aggregate output, via a recession caused by social-distancing, and the productivity of health care services. The efficiency of health investment falls driving down life expectancy (LE). VSL’s fall both because LE’s fall and the marginal value of health care investment falls. Using the Hall and Jones (2007) model of age-specific, endogenous health investment, it is shown that the COVID-19 crisis of 2020 will lead to lost welfare for young agents that exceeds VSL’s lost from the disease. If COVID-19 had the same age-mortality profile as the 1918 Spanish Flu, where more young agents died, contagion-mitigation policies that cause deep recessions would still be socially optimal since more of the high-valued lives of young people would be saved.
    Keywords: health, inequality, general welfare, value of statistical life, macroeconomics
    JEL: E2 I14 J17
    Date: 2020–06–11
  37. By: Sultana, Abida; McKyer, E. Lisako J.; Hossain, Md Mahbub
    Abstract: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has affected health systems globally with a growing need for hospital beds and other institutional resources. Older adults are highly vulnerable to COVID-19 infection and associated adverse outcomes, whereas they often experience chronic diseases requiring institutional care. Hospital at home (HAH) is a strategic approach that may provide hospital-level care for older adults in their home settings. HAH may potentially minimize the health risks associated with COVID-19, ensure timely care for other health problems, improve health outcomes, reduce costs, increase satisfaction, and make institutional resources available for other patients during this pandemic. Healthcare providers, social workers, policymakers, and other key stakeholders should assess and address existing challenges for ensuring optimal geriatric care during this pandemic and improve the collective societal responses to the COVID-19 pandemic and future public health emergencies.
    Date: 2020–07–15
  38. By: Shaun Da Costa
    Abstract: This paper assesses the welfare impacts of the 2014 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak in Liberia, focusing on changes in age and sex specific mortality rates. The first part of the paper derives a survival function for a counterfactual no-EVD scenario, using mortality data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). This counterfactual survival function is then compared with the actual survival function in 2014 to estimate the change in survival conditions due to EVD. Next, the impact of this change on individual and total welfare is assessed using a marginal willingness to pay approach applied to data from the Liberian Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES). The results suggest that the total welfare costs of EVD-related mortality range between $2.5 to $4 billion, depending on the estimate of the survival probabilities adopted. Finally, the robustness of these results is tested using different preference parameter calibrations.
    Date: 2019–11
  39. By: Eugenio Proto; Climent Quintana-Domeque
    Abstract: We use the UK Household Longitudinal Study and compare pre- (2017-2019) and post-COVID-19 data (April 2020) for the same group of individuals to assess and quantify changes in mental health among ethnic groups in the UK. We confirm the previously documented average deterioration in mental health for the whole sample of individuals interviewed pre- and post-COVID-19, and uncover four new facts. First, ethnicity predicts mental health deterioration when interacted with gender. Among men, BAME individuals experience a higher deterioration in mental health compared to British White individuals. However, among women, the deterioration in mental health is similar for both BAME and British White individuals. Second, the gender gap in mental health deterioration is only present among British White individuals and not among BAME individuals. Third, the drop in mental health among women and BAME men is very similar. Finally, there is substantial heterogeneity across BAME groups. The BAME group of Bangladeshi, Indian and Pakistani appears to be driving the difference in the gender gap in mental health deterioration between British White and BAME individuals. We call for additional research on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic across different ethnic groups, and urge both policy makers and researchers to allocate resources to collect larger sample sizes of minority ethnic groups.
    Keywords: GHQ-12, wellbeing, mental health, mental distress, ethnicity, gender
    JEL: I10 J10 J15
    Date: 2020
  40. By: Hossain, Md Mahbub; McKyer, E. Lisako J.; Ma, Ping
    Abstract: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has impacted mental health globally. It is essential to deploy advanced research methodologies that may use complex data to draw meaningful inferences facilitating mental health research and policymaking during this pandemic. Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies offer a wide range of opportunities to leverage advancements in data sciences in analyzing health records, behavioral data, social media contents, and outcomes data on mental health. Several studies have reported the use of several AI technologies such as vector machines, neural networks, latent Dirichlet allocation, decision trees, and clustering to detect and treat depression, schizophrenia, Alzheimer’s disease, and other mental health problems. The applications of such technologies in the context of COVID-19 is still under development, which calls for further deployment of AI technologies in mental health research in this pandemic using clinical and psychosocial data through technological partnerships and collaborations. Lastly, policy-level commitment and deployment of resources to facilitate the use of robust AI technologies for assessing and addressing mental health problems during the COVID-19 pandemic.
    Date: 2020–06–23
  41. By: CPD IRBD 2020 Team
    Abstract: COVID-19 pandemic is a global health and economic emergency that requires effective immediate actions by governments, the private sector and individuals. Given the nature of the virus, it is difficult to predict at this point the full extent of health implications and economic losses originating from COVID 19. The impact will depend on the duration of the disease and the type of remedial measures taken to tackle the disease and protect the economy. This report looks into the impact of COVID-19 on the Bangladesh economy at two levels: from global to national, and at the national level. While looking into the transmission channels of the impact, the study puts spotlight on five sectors which are critically important for the Bangladesh economy. These are: external sector performance; disruption of supply chains in major economic activities; healthcare; public finance; and monetary policy. The research suggests that in view of the emergent and the anticipated near-term scenario, Bangladesh’s policymakers will need to face the health and economic challenges of COVID-19 through appropriate policies, targetted measures and incentives, and if the situation demands, by putting in place a comprehensive stimulus package.
    Keywords: COVID-19, Health risk, Economc risk, Bangladesh, Corona Pandemic, Bangladesh economy, stimulus package
    Date: 2020–04
  42. By: Simplice A. Asongu (Yaounde, Cameroon); Samba Diop (Alioune Diop University, Bambey, Senegal); Joseph Nnanna (The Development Bank of Nigeria, Abuja, Nigeria)
    Abstract: This study has: (i) analysed the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, (ii) evaluated the effectiveness and relevance of different measures against the pandemic and (iii) examined nexuses between the corresponding measures and economic outcomes. The study uses a sample of 186 countries divided into four main regions, notably: Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, Europe, Africa and America. 34 preventing and mitigating measures against the Covid-19 pandemic are classified into five main categories: lockdown, movement restrictions, governance and economic, social distancing, and public health measures. The empirical evidence is based on comparative difference in means tests and correlation analyses. The findings show how the effectiveness and consequences of the Covid-19 measures are different across regions. In adopting the relevant policies to fight the ongoing pandemic, the comparative insights from the findings in the study are worthwhile. Inter alia: (i) from a holistic perspective, only European countries have favourably benefited from the Covid-19 measures; (ii) lockdown measures at the global level have not been significant in reducing the pandemic; (iii) the restriction of movement measure has been relevant in curbing the spread in the American continent; (iv) social distancing has been productive in Europe and counter-productive in Africa; (v) governance and economic measures have exclusively been relevant in Europe and (vi) overall public health measures have not had the desired outcomes in flattening the infection curve probably because most of the underlying measures are awareness decisions or oriented toward people already infected.
    Keywords: Novel Coronavirus, Social Distance, Macroeconomics effects
    JEL: E10 E12 E20 E23 I10 I18
    Date: 2020–07
  43. By: Teresa Barbieri (INAPP); Gaetano Basso (Bank of Italy); Sergio Scicchitano (INAPP)
    Abstract: We analyse the content of Italian occupations operating in about 600 sectors with a focus on the dimensions that expose workers to risks during the COVID-19 epidemics. We leverage detailed information from ICP, the Italian equivalent of O*Net and find that several sectors need physical proximity to operate: the workers employed in sectors whose physical proximity index is above the national average are more than 6.5 million (mostly in retail trade). Groups at risk of complications from COVID-19 (mainly male above the age of 50) work in sectors that are little exposed to physical proximity, currently under lockdown or can work remotely. The sectoral lockdowns put in place by the Italian Government in March 2020 targeted sectors who operate in physical proximity, but not those directly exposed to infections (the health industry is not subject to lockdown). Most of the workforce who can operate from home have not been put under lockdown.
    Keywords: working conditions, safety, crisis policies, COVID-19 epidemics
    JEL: J28 J81 H12 I18
    Date: 2020–06
  44. By: Jacques Bughin; Michele Cincera
    Abstract: FOG (« fear of going back to work ») is a new acronym reflecting workers stress to become contamined by covid-19. In response, firms have been offering protections, extending teleworking as a way to continue to work during the pandemics. Leveraging a classical epidemiologic SIR model, we study how pandemics such as Covid 19 affect labor market, when the labor productivity is tied to the value of interactions, and under wage negotiations. Despite relatively schematic, our modelling highlights that workers participation during pandemics is dependent on reservation wages, and that the final dynamics are also critically dependent on a mix of health and wealth factors such as age, work interactions, workers power, and productivity of interactions. In general, teleworking may be a way to restore work participation, even if teleworking may be less productive, to the extent that the productivity gap can be compensated by a much higher protection of workers.
    Keywords: pandemics; covid-19; labor participation; teleworking
    JEL: I12 J22 J23 J33
    Date: 2020–07
  45. By: Karl M. Aspelund; Michael C. Droste; James H. Stock; Christopher D. Walker
    Abstract: In the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, international testing efforts tended to target individuals whose symptoms and/or jobs placed them at a high presumed risk of infection. Testing regimes of this sort potentially result in a high proportion of cases going undetected. Quantifying this parameter, which we refer to as the undetected rate, is an important contribution to the analysis of the early spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. We show that partial identification techniques can credibly deal with the data problems that common COVID-19 testing programs induce (i.e. excluding quarantined individuals from testing and low participation in random screening programs). We use public data from two Icelandic testing regimes during the first month of the outbreak and estimate an identified interval for the undetected rate. Our main approach estimates that the undetected rate was between 89% and 93% before the medical system broadened its eligibility criteria and between 80% and 90% after.
    JEL: C14 C80 I18
    Date: 2020–07
  46. By: Arolas, Héctor Pifarré i; Acosta, Enrique (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research); Casasnovas, Guillem López; Lo, Adeline; Nicodemo, Catia; Riffe, Tim; Myrskylä, Mikko
    Abstract: Understanding the mortality impact of COVID-19 requires not only counting the dead, but analyzing how premature the deaths are. We calculate years of life lost (YLL) across 42 countries due to COVID-19 attributable deaths, and also conduct an analysis based on estimated excess deaths. As of June 13th 2020, YLL in heavily affected countries are 2 to 6 times the average seasonal influenza; over two thirds of the YLL result from deaths in ages below 75 and one quarter from deaths below 55; and men have lost 47% more life years than women. The results confirm the large mortality impact of COVID-19 among the elderly. They also call for heightened awareness in devising policies that protect vulnerable demographics losing the largest number of life-years.
    Date: 2020–06–23
  47. By: Tapsoba, Augustin
    Abstract: The fear of exposure to conflict events often triggers changes in the behavior of economic agents even before/without any manifestation of violence in a given area. It generates a treatment status (exposure to the adverse effects of conflict) that goes beyond violence incidence. This paper develops a new approach to capture such treatment. Violence is modeled as a space-time stochastic process with an unknown underlying distribution that is backed out of the observed pattern of conflict events. A new risk measure is built from this density and used to evaluate the impact of conflict on child health using data from Ivory Coast and Uganda. The empirical evidence suggests that conflict is a local public bad, with cohorts of children exposed to high risk of violence equally suffering major health setbacks even when this risk does not materialize in violent events around them.
    Keywords: Conflict; Insecurity; Kernel Density Estimation; Child Health
    Date: 2020–07–22
  48. By: Jean-Victor Alipour; Harald Fadinger; Jan Schymik
    Abstract: This paper studies the relation between work and public health during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. Combining administrative data on SARS-CoV-2 infections and short-time work registrations, firm- and worker-level surveys and cell phone tracking data on mobility patterns, we find that working from home (WFH) is very effective in economic and public health terms. WFH effectively shields workers from short-term work, firms from COVID-19 distress and substantially reduces infection risks. Counties whose occupation structure allows for a larger fraction of work to be done from home experienced (i) much fewer short-time work registrations and (ii) less SARS-CoV-2 cases. Health benefits of WFH appeared mostly in the early stage of the pandemic and became smaller once tight confinement rules were implemented. Before con- finement, mobility levels were lower in counties with more WFH jobs and counties experienced a convergence in traffic levels once confinement was in place.
    Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Working from Home, Labor Supply Shock, Infections, Mitigation, BIBB-BAuA
    JEL: J22 H12 I18 J68 R12 R23
    Date: 2020–06
  49. By: Mark J. Jensen
    Abstract: One of the many lessons learned from the financial crisis is the increased awareness of model risk. In this article, I apply the best practices of model risk management found in SR 11-7 (which offers regulatory guidance on the best practices for managing model risk) to COVID-19 models. In particular, I investigate the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation's (IHME) model to see if it has been effectively challenged with a critical assessment of its conceptual soundness, ongoing monitoring, and outcomes analysis.
    Keywords: COVID-19; model risk management; SR 11-7
    JEL: C1 C11 C52
    Date: 2020–06–18
  50. By: Neidhöfer, Guido; Neidhöfer, Claudio
    Abstract: The rapid spread of COVID-19 forced policy-makers to swiftly find solutions to reduce infection rates and keep mortality as low as possible. Empirical analyses on the effectiveness of control measures are hereby of primary importance. School closures were among the earliest measures enacted by the governments of most countries. However, while schools are now reopening in many countries, the impact of school closures on the course of the epidemic is still an open question. Adopting parametric and non-parametric synthetic control methods we estimate the effectiveness of pro-active school closures, and other early social distancing interventions, in three countries that reacted relatively early during the course of the pandemic. Our findings suggest that these interventions were effective at reducing the mortality rate of COVID-19, especially when enacted early.
    Keywords: COVID-19,policy evaluation,school closures,mitigation strategies
    JEL: I18 J18
    Date: 2020
  51. By: Sharma,Jigyasa; Andrews,Kathryn Gilman; Conner,Ruben Orion; Gatti,Roberta V.
    Abstract: To aid national and international efforts to support countries in enhancing their pandemic preparedness in the face of COVID-19, this paper draws from the World Bank's Service Delivery Indicator surveys to highlight key aspects of health service preparedness in Kenya, Sierra Leone, and Tanzania. The results of this analysis paint a highly variable picture. At least 10 percent of lower-level facilities in all three countries have inpatient care capacity, suggesting that these lower-level facilities could help absorb surges in patient flow. Less than half of the facilities in the three countries have a fixed or mobile phone and less than a third have internet access, suggesting a likely challenge in communication and timely sharing of essential information. Concerningly, less than half of the facilities have appropriate handwashing facilities for patients, with even lower rates in rural areas. Between 80 and 95 percent of the facilities have a thermometer to diagnose fever, but availability of a thermometer, stethoscope, and blood pressure cuff together is variable (ranging from almost 90 percent of the facilities in Tanzania to less than 65 percent in Sierra Leone). The paper concludes by highlighting key innovations for future surveys to improve measurement of pandemic preparedness.
    Keywords: Health Care Services Industry,Health Service Management and Delivery,Public Health Promotion,Transport Services
    Date: 2020–07–27
  52. By: Festus A. Odeyemi (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Nigeria); Ibrahim A. Adekunle (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Nigeria); Olakitan W. Ogunbanjo (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Nigeria); Jamiu B. Folorunso (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Nigeria); Thompson Akinbolaji (Biomedical Services, American Red Cross, USA); Idowu B. Olawoye (Redeemer\\\'s University, Ede, Osun State, Nigeria)
    Abstract: The rampaging effect of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Africa is huge and have impacted almost every area of life. Across African states, there exist variations in the laboratory measures adopted, and these heterogeneous approaches, in turn, determines the successes or otherwise recorded. In this study, we assessed the various forms of laboratory responses to the containment, risk analyses, structures and features of COVID-19 in high incidence African countries (Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt, Ghana, Algeria, Morocco, etc.) to aid better and efficient laboratory responses to the highly infectious diseases.
    Keywords: Laboratory responses, COVID-19, PCR, Sample Pooling, Africa
    Date: 2020–01
  53. By: Toufique, M. M. K.
    Abstract: Using data from 70 of the most COVID-19 affected countries, this paper attempts to explain the cross-country variations in the number of officially confirmed COVID-19 positive cases. The findings indicate that regional characteristics play an essential role. Percent of people living in the urban area, number of tests, air passenger transport also come out as determinants with substantial influence. Besides, the impacts of trade relationships with China and per capita health expenditure appear to be noteworthy. The study does not find evidence in favor of the endogeneity of the total number of tests done.
    Keywords: COVID-19,Economics,Variation in Coronavirus cases,Air Passenger Transport,Trade with China
    JEL: H12 H51 O57
    Date: 2020
  54. By: He, Qichun
    Abstract: In this paper, we investigate how the presence of the COVID-19 pandemic---the increase in the probability of death, following Blanchard and Fischer (1989)---may affect growth and welfare in a scale-invariant R&D-based Schumpeterian model. Without money, the increase in the probability of death has no effect on long-run growth and a negative effect on welfare. By contrast, when money is introduced via the cash-in-advance constraint on consumption, the increase in the probability of death decreases long-run growth and welfare under elastic labor supply. Calibration shows that the quantitative effect of an increase in the probability of death on welfare is much larger compared to that on growth.
    Keywords: the COVID-19 pandemic; cash-in-advance constraint on consumption; Schumpeterian model
    JEL: E52 O42
    Date: 2020–07
  55. By: Chong, Terence Tai Leung; Liu, Hengliang
    Abstract: COVID-19 was first reported in Wuhan in late December 2019, and then spread throughout China, which has had great influence on many aspects of the economy. This paper uses the two-way fixed effects model to investigate the non-linear relationship between the death toll of COVID-19 and the changes in housing prices using monthly panel data from November 2019 to May 2020. The results suggest that there is a U-shaped relationship between monthly death toll of COVID-19 and the percentage changes of housing prices in cities. In addition, the housing markets of New First-tier cities are more sensitive to the COVID-19 pandemic than Second and Third-tier cities, which the pandemic has had little effect on. Similarly, monthly confirmed cases of COVID-19 come to the same conclusions.
    Keywords: COVID-19; Housing prices; Non-linear relationship; New First-tier cities
    JEL: R31
    Date: 2020–07–28
  56. By: Christina Boll; Simone Schüller
    Abstract: Drawing on data from the Socio-economic Panel (SOEP) for 2018, we use a sample of 2,145 heterosexual couples with children below age 13 to investigate the paternal involvement in domestic childcare and the relation of the underlying mechanisms to the two job-related “Covid-19 factors” systemic relevance (SR) and capacity to work from home (WfH). Based on bi- and trivariate analyses of the intra-couple distribution of time, income and gender roles before the crisis and their likely change during the pandemic depending on parents’ job characteristics SR and WfH, we nominate three couple constellations which are most likely to manifest an increase in the proportion of paternal childcare in the post-pandemic period. Depending on the specification of access to emergency care, we quantify a share of 7-8% of couples as ’sources of hope‘. We further expect positive impulses for gender equality not only in the private but also in the corporate sphere, especially through multiplier effects, which are likely to emanate from fathers in managerial positions.
    Keywords: Covid-19, intra-couple division of unpaid work, systemic relevance, work from home, childcare, SOEP
    JEL: D13 J13 J16
    Date: 2020
  57. By: Becchetti, Leonardo; Conzo, Gianluigi; Conzo, Pierluigi; Salustri, Francesco (University of Turin)
    Abstract: he uneven geographical distribution of the novel coronavirus epidemic (COVID-19) in Italy is a puzzle given the intense flow of movements among the different geographical areas before lockdown decisions. To shed light on it, we test the effect of the quality of air (as measured by particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide) and lockdown restrictions on daily adverse COVID-19 outcomes at province level. We find that air pollution is positively correlated with adverse outcomes of the epidemic, withlockdown being strongly significant and more effective in reducing deceases in more polluted areas. Results are robust to different methods including cross-section, pooled and fixed-effect panel regressions (controlling for spatial correlation), instrumental variable regressions, and difference-in-differences estimates of lockdown decisions through predicted counterfactual trends. They are consistent with the consolidated body of literature in previous medical studies suggesting that poor quality of air creates chronic exposure to adverse outcomes from respiratory diseases. The estimated correlation does not change when accounting for other factors such as temperature, commuting flows, quality of regional health systems, share of public transport users, population density, the presence of Chinese community, and proxies for industry breakdown such as the share of small (artisan) firms. Our findings provide suggestions for investigating uneven geographical distribution patterns in other countries, and have implications for environmental and lockdown policies.
    Date: 2020–06
  58. By: Steven Hamilton (George Washington University)
    Abstract: Australia suppressed the virus with swift and strong public health measures including stringent border controls. As of July 2020, the virus continues to spread uncontrolled across the US, resulting in the most recorded cases and deaths of any country. Both countries instituted widespread lock-downs and similarly generous fiscal support, yet Australia has experienced a far milder recession, highlighting the critical role of public health measures in protecting the economy. The role of broad cash stimulus necessarily has been more limited than in an ordinary recession, justifying the use of wage subsidies that encourage businesses to retain workers. The Australian wage subsidy, delivered via the tax authority, was better targeted, more generous, more accessible, but slower to deliver liquidity than the American wage subsidy delivered via private banks. The experience highlights the critical need for significant investments in IRS infrastructure to better prepare for future crises.
    Date: 2020–12

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