nep-hea New Economics Papers
on Health Economics
Issue of 2013‒09‒25
three papers chosen by
Yong Yin
SUNY at Buffalo

  1. Public attitudes towards motorcyclists’ safety: a qualitative study from the United Kingdom By Musselwhite, Charles B.A.; Avineri, Erel; Susilo, Yusak O.; Bhattachary, Darren
  2. Competing-Risks Duration Models with Correlated Random Effects: An Application to Dementia Patients’ Transition Histories By Hess , Wolfgang; Schwarzkopf , Larissa; Hunger , Matthias; Holle , Rolf
  3. Twin Transitions By Aksan, Anna-Maria; Chakraborty, Shankha

  1. By: Musselwhite, Charles B.A. (University of the West of England); Avineri, Erel (Afeka); Susilo, Yusak O. (KTH); Bhattachary, Darren (TNS BMRB)
    Abstract: The aim of the reported research was to examine the perceptions of road user safety amongst different road users and examine the link between attitudes, empathy and skill in motorcycle safety behaviour. Motorcyclists were perceived by the study participants, members of the public at four different locations at the UK (including motorcyclists and non-motorcyclists), as a group be at a high risk of accidents on the road. This was due to perceived behavioural characteristics of motorcyclists – who were viewed as ‘thrill seekers’ – as well as observed behaviours on the road. This, coupled with the physical vulnerability and excessive speeds, meant that motorbike driving was considered by the study participants as the least safe form of road use. There was broad agreement that motorcycling was dangerous as a whole, but not all motorcyclists were necessarily risky riders. The issue of ‘competitive space’ emerged between car drivers and motorcyclists in particular and it was suggested that there was a lack of mutual awareness and considerations between the two groups. Generally, greatest empathy comes from drivers who are motorcyclists themselves. Engineering, education, enforcement interventions were investigated. These were aimed at two main areas: normalising safer driving behaviours for motorcyclists and increasing awareness of bikes for motorists—particularly in relation to reducing speed limits at urban junctions. Finally, the idea of risk mapping and reduced speed limits on rural roads was seen as potentially effective—particularly as certain motorcyclists highlighted that they changed their riding behaviours by increasing speed and taking greater risks on these roads.
    Keywords: Attitudes; Risk; Motorcycle; Qualitative; Shared space; Empathy
    JEL: R41
    Date: 2013–09–23
  2. By: Hess , Wolfgang (Department of Economics, Lund University); Schwarzkopf , Larissa (Institute of Health Economics and Health Care Management, Helmholtz Zentrum); Hunger , Matthias (Institute of Health Economics and Health Care Management, Helmholtz Zentrum); Holle , Rolf (Institute of Health Economics and Health Care Management, Helmholtz Zentrum)
    Abstract: Multi-state transition models are widely applied tools to analyze individual event histories in the medical or social sciences. In this paper we propose the use of (discrete-time) competing-risks duration models to analyze multi-transition data. Unlike conventional Markov transition models, these models allow the estimated transition probabilities to depend on the time spent in the current state. Moreover, the models can be readily extended to allow for correlated transition probabilities. A further virtue of these models is that they can be estimated using conventional regression tools for discrete-response data, such as the multinomial logit model. The latter is implemented in many statistical software packages, and can be readily applied by empirical researchers. Moreover, model estimation is feasible, even when dealing with very large data sets, and simultaneously allowing for a flexible form of duration dependence and correlation between transition probabilities. We derive the likelihood function for a model with three competing target states, and discuss a feasible and readily applicable estimation method. We also present results from a simulation study, which indicate adequate performance of the proposed approach. In an empirical application we analyze dementia patients’ transition probabilities from the domestic setting, taking into account several, partly duration-dependent covariates.
    Keywords: Competing risks; Dementia; Discrete-time duration model; Multinomial logit; Random effects; Transition
    JEL: C41 I10
    Date: 2013–09–09
  3. By: Aksan, Anna-Maria; Chakraborty, Shankha
    Abstract: We provide a new explanation for sub-Saharan Africa’s slow demographic and economic change. In a model where children die from infectious disease, childhood health affects human capital and noninfectious-disease related adult mortality. When child mortality falls from lower prevalence, as in western Europe, labor productivity improves, fertility falls and the economy prospers. When it falls mainly from better cures, as in sub-Saharan Africa, survivors are less healthy and there is little economic payoff. The model quantitatively explains sub-Saharan Africa’s experience. More generally it shows that life expectancy at birth is a poor indicator of population health unless morbidity falls with mortality.
    Keywords: Demographic Transition, Epidemiological Transition, Mortality, Morbidity, Fertility
    JEL: I10 I12 J13 O40
    Date: 2013–05–27

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