nep-hea New Economics Papers
on Health Economics
Issue of 2007‒07‒27
one paper chosen by
Yong Yin
SUNY at Buffalo, USA

  1. Modelling the Dynamics of a Public Health Care System: Evidence from Time-Series Data By Fabrizio Iacone; Steve Martin; Luigi Siciliani; Peter C Smith

  1. By: Fabrizio Iacone; Steve Martin; Luigi Siciliani; Peter C Smith
    Abstract: The English National Health Service was established in 1948, and has therefore yielded some long time series data on health system performance. Waiting times for inpatient care have been a persistent cause of policy concern since the creation of the NHS. This paper develops a theoretical model of the dynamic interaction between key indicators of health system performance. It then investigates empirically the relationship between hospital activity, waiting times and population characteristics using aggregate time-series data for the NHS over the period 1952— 2005. Structural Vector Auto-Regression suggests that in the long run: a) higher activity is associated with lower waiting times (elasticity = -0.9%); b) a higher proportion of old population is associated with higher waiting times (elasticity = 1.6%). In the short run, higher lagged waiting time leads to higher activity (elasticity = 0.2%). We also find that shocks in waiting times are countered by higher activity, so the effect is only temporary, while shocks in activity have a permanent effect. We conclude that policies to reduce waiting times should focus on initiatives that increase hospital activity.
    Keywords: Waiting Times, Dynamics, Vector Auto-Regression
    JEL: I11 I18 H42 H52
    Date: 2007–07

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