| By: |
T. S. Jayne (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University);
Marcela Villarreal;
Prabhu Pingali;
Günter Hemrich |
| Abstract: |
This paper considers how the design of agricultural policies and programmes
might be modified to better achieve policy objectives in the context of severe
HIV epidemics and underscores the central role of agricultural policy in
mitigating the spread and impacts of the epidemic. Based on projections of
future demographic change in the hardest-hit countries of eastern and southern
Africa, HIV/AIDS is likely to have the following effects on the agricultural
sector: (1) increased rural inequality caused by disproportionately severe
effects of AIDS on relatively poor households; (2) a reduction in household
assets and wealth, leading to less capital-intensive cropping systems for
severely affected communities and households; and (3) problems in transferring
knowledge of crop husbandry and marketing to the succeeding generation of
African farmers. It is argued that -- even though the absolute number of
working age adults in the hardest-hit countries is projected to remain roughly
the same over the next two decades -- the cost of labour in agriculture may
rise in some areas as increasing scarcity of capital (notably, animal draft
power for land preparation and weeding) will increase the demand for labour in
agricultural production or shift agricultural systems to less labour- and
capital-intensive crops. |
| Keywords: |
food security, food security, agricultural policy, HIV/AIDS, structural transformation, production factors |
| JEL: |
Q18 J43 O12 |
| Date: |
2004 |
| URL: |
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:idppap:025&r=hea |