| Abstract: |
I broadly summarize the theoretical and recent empirical literatures on human
development. Using Gray and Purser’s 1970-2010 database of human development
index (HDI) components (income, life expectancy, literacy, gross enrolment
ratios) for 135 countries, together with indicators of the demographic
transition, urbanization, technological change, sustainability, and
institutions (15 variables), I construct a panel for the 1985-2010
quinquennia, and instruments for the same variables using the 1970-1980 data
and conduct a descriptive dynamic analysis. I then analyze the matrix of
causal interactions between the 15 variables, using three types of
instrumented regressions for each matrix entry: a) levels regressions; b)
growth regressions; c) growth regressions also containing the contemporary
growth of independent variables. This analysis is repeated for 3 subsamples
obtained according to HDI levels and another 3 according to technological
levels. The Hausman and Sargan test results show a ranking of endogenous
determination and indirect impacts of the variables on each other that vary
qualitatively for levels and growth and across HDI and technological levels.
Main results: the HDI distribution is broadly twin peaked and its dynamics
vary substantively across HDI and technological levels. The main development
transitions are broadly advancing at different stages: fertility, infant
mortality, the dependency ratio, literacy, enrolment, life expectancy,
urbanization. Also, there is a transition towards more democracy and less
autocracy. However, at very low HDI levels income per capita decreased. The
main policy suggestions for promoting the demographic and human development
transition are to support: technology transfer to the poor, investments not
supplied by the markets (human capital, urbanization, sustainability), the
emergence of democracy, and global governance. |