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on Economic Growth |
| By: | Maryam Farboodi; Andrew Koh; Anchi Xia |
| Abstract: | We build a dynamic model of data-driven automation in which data (i) is heterogeneous and task-specific; (ii) accumulates endogenously as a byproduct of economic activity; and (iii) exhibits spillovers such that data generated by one task can augment the productivity of another. Along the transition path of automation, data plays a dual role in simultaneously augmenting the productivity of already-automated tasks and expanding the automation frontier. We derive tight conditions for the economy to be partially versus fully automated in the long-run. In the latter case, automation exhibits rich short-run dynamics that depend on the pattern of data spillovers but is always slow in the long-run: the share of tasks produced by labor decays asymptotically as a power law in time. We show that the economy is generically inefficient and analyze how a planner optimally tilts the direction of data accumulation. With endogenous capital accumulation, data-driven automation generates explosive growth but stagnant long-run wages. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.10127 |
| By: | Wabenga Yango, James; Moran, Kevin |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an empirical analysis of the impacts of global demographic changes on GDP growth. It categorizes countries into advanced, emerging and developing economies and conducts the analysis region by region. The first results pertain to a decomposition of per capita GDP growth into its main contributors. They show that in advanced economies, productivity per hour and total hours worked are the main contributors to GDP per capita growth. In contrast, productivity per hour and an expanding working-age population in emerging economies are important for GDP growth. Finally, in advanced economies, hours worked per job have fallen and thus have a negative effect on GDP per capita growth. The second results are obtained from panel models that estimate the impact of demographic trends on GDP per capita growth. This analysis is once again conducted region by region and one demographic (aging, fertility, life expectancy, immigration, etc.) and growth in GDP per capita at a time. The results notably report that larger proportions of older adults positively influence GDP per capita growth in emerging and developing economies, whereas this ageing has a detrimental effect in advanced economies. The findings indicate that shifts in the working-age population positively impact GDP per capita across developing, emerging, and advanced economies, whereas changes in the youth population have a negative effect on GDP per capita in these economies as well. Finally, net immigration increases GDP per capita growth in advanced and developing economies, but it decreases growth in emerging economies. These findings contribute to the ongoing debates about the macroeconomic consequences of demographic shifts and highlight the importance of conditioning the analysis on the region or the stage of economic development. |
| Keywords: | Demographic trends; International migration; Economic Growth |
| JEL: | E2 F22 F41 J11 J21 O47 |
| Date: | 2025–06–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129481 |
| By: | David Escamilla-Guerrero; Giovanni Peri |
| Abstract: | This paper leverages variation in the access to the Mexican railroad network in the early 1900s to estimate its impact on migration to the United States and evaluate its long-run persistence after passenger rail service became obsolete. Using an IV strategy based on least-cost paths between historical cities, we find that locations with railroad access had migration rates four times higher than those without in the early twentieth century. Sequential migration was the key mechanism: railroads first facilitated internal mobility toward railroad hubs, then onward migration to the US. Railroad access also contributed to structural transformation, raising urbanization and local economic development. In terms of persistence, locations with historical railroad access show weakly lower total migration rates to the US in the early 21st century, consistent with local economic growth reducing the incentive to migrate. Yet destination-specific patterns prove remarkably durable: locations that disproportionately sent migrants to California, Arizona, or Texas in the 1900s continued to do so in the 2000s, reflecting the persistence of migrant networks. |
| JEL: | J60 N36 N76 R41 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35358 |
| By: | Philipp Ager; Davide M. Coluccia |
| Abstract: | This paper provides novel evidence on how technological change shaped women’s labor market participation, fertility, and marriage in 19th-century Massachusetts. We distin guish between the sewing machine’s dual role as a manufacturing technology and as a household appliance. Using rich town- and individual-level longitudinal data, we show that this innovation induced divergent responses across the wealth distribution. Women from lower-wealth households increased labor supply, delaying marriage and reducing fertility. In contrast, for wealthierwomen, thesewingmachinefunctionedasadomesticef ficiency tool, enabling earlier family formation and greater civic engagement while reducing market work. Ourfindings demonstrate how household constraints and social norms mediate the effects of labor-saving technologies, suggesting that technological progress can reinforce inequality by influencing women’s economic and social roles. |
| Keywords: | Technology, Gender, Female Labor Force Participation, Fertility. |
| JEL: | J13 J16 N31 N61 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_761 |
| By: | Bertolotti, Fabio; Lanteri, Andrea; Yoon, Hyeonsik |
| Abstract: | We analyze optimal subsidies for the replacement of durable assets in a model with heterogeneous producers, endogenous capital-embodied innovation, and environmental externalities that depend on capital vintages. We characterize the constrained-efficient allocation assuming a planner chooses capital replacement subject to the equilibrium evolution of innovation. Optimal subsidies equal the sum of two terms: (i) the difference in present discounted value of damages associated with old vs. new capital and (ii) the social value of innovation induced by capital replacement, net of the associated markup distortion. We generalize this formula to the case of new technologies, such as electric vehicles. We calibrate the model using empirical evidence on several types of capital, including aircraft and vehicles, and simulate the optimal transition. Initially, optimal subsidies are steeply increasing in the age of the replaced asset. In the long run, they are determined by the trade-off between innovation and markups. |
| Keywords: | Optimal policy; Environmental externalities; Innovation |
| JEL: | O44 O33 Q55 E22 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21578 |
| By: | Sinara Gharibyan (IOS - Ost- und Südosteuropa verstehen); David Gomtsyan (CREI - Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional - UPF - Universitat Pompeu Fabra [Barcelona]); Èric Roca Fernández (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the relationship between geographic mortality differentials and human capital investment patterns in the Malthusian setup of 19th-century Armenia. We examine how variations in altitude are associated with mortality rates, human capital accumulation, and fertility decisions. Using detailed historical census and parish records, we document that higher-altitude areas tend to have lower population density, lower respiratory disease mortality, and lower overall mortality. Our empirical analysis also shows that individuals in these environments tend to display better numeracy skills and lower fertility rates. These findings align with the Ben-Porath hypothesis, suggesting that longer life horizons encourage shifting from child quantity to quality. Furthermore, these patterns are not driven by income differences or increased female autonomy arising from pastoral agriculture |
| Keywords: | Human capital formation, Mortality, Disease environment, Geography, Armenia |
| Date: | 2026–05–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05654079 |