nep-gro New Economics Papers
on Economic Growth
Issue of 2024‒05‒20
eight papers chosen by
Marc Klemp, University of Copenhagen

  1. Public provision of healthcare and basic science: What are the effects on economic growth and welfare? By Parui, Pintu; Prettner, Klaus
  2. Does Financial Inclusion Enhance per Capita Income in the Least Developed Countries? By António Afonso; M. Carmen Blanco-Arana
  3. From the Holy Land to the Homeland: The Impact of Anime Broadcasts on Economic Growth By Ryo Takahashi
  4. Compositional Growth Models By Jos\'e Moran; Massimo Riccaboni
  5. Nominal wage patterns, monopsony, and labour market power in early modern England By Wallis, Patrick
  6. The American Origin of the French Revolution By Sebastian Ottinger; Lukas Rosenberger
  7. Machine learning and economic forecasting: the role of international trade networks By Thiago C. Silva; Paulo V. B. Wilhelm; Diego R. Amancio
  8. AI and Productivity Growth: Evidence from Historical Developments in Other Technologies By Marie Hogan; Aakash Kalyani

  1. By: Parui, Pintu; Prettner, Klaus
    Abstract: We propose a generalized R&D-based economic growth model that incorporates i) endogenous human capital accumulation in terms of education and health, ii) endogenous population growth, and iii) the public provision of healthcare and basic science. The government taxes households to pay for healthcare personnel and basic scientists. Since these employees are not anymore available for applied science and for final goods production, important tradeoffs with respect to government spending emerge for economic growth and welfare. We show that increasing public spending, particularly on basic science, leads to faster economic growth in the medium run and tends to raise welfare when compared to actual levels of spending in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Our results highlight the difficult tradeoffs associated with public expenditures for healthcare and basic science and emphasize the important role of policymakers in ensuring adequate overall public funding.
    Keywords: R&D-Based Growth; Basic Science; Public Healthcare; Children's Health; Education; Fertility; Intertemporal Tradeoffs
    Date: 2024–04
  2. By: António Afonso; M. Carmen Blanco-Arana
    Abstract: Financial inclusion is a key factor for economic growth in most developing countries. This paper examines the relationship between financial inclusion and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita in the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) using panel data for the period 1990-2021. The empirical evidence suggests that financial inclusion is indeed related to economic growth in the LDCs. We consider different dimensions of financial inclusion: usability (% of bank credit to bank deposits), accessibility (commercial bank branches), concentration (% of concentration of banks) and availability (depositors with commercial banks) to determine which has a greater effect on economic growth in the countries analyzed. Therefore, we assess which dimensions of financial inclusion are a better tool to improve the economic situation in the poorest countries in the world. While we conclude that all dimensions of financial inclusion have a positive effect on economic growth, in the expected direction, we find that not all dimensions affect economic growth similarly. The dimensions ‘accessibility’ and ‘concentration’ are robustly associated with economic growth, while ‘usability’ and ‘availability’ produce a significant but relatively lesser effect in the LDCs.
    Keywords: financial inclusion, GDP per capita, panel data, LDCs
    JEL: O40 O47 C33 F30
    Date: 2024
  3. By: Ryo Takahashi (Waseda University, Graduate School of Economics)
    Abstract: This study investigates the long-term effects of media exposure on economic growth by examining quasi-experimental variations in media exposure, facilitated by anime broadcasts featuring Japan’s “anime holy lands”—real-world locations depicted in anime. I aim to evaluate the economic growth of municipalities featured in these anime broadcasts using average income and night-time luminosity as indicators. The featured municipalities experience significant economic growth 5 and 13 years after the broadcasts. Population increase, resulting from the influx of new residents following anime broadcasts, is identified as the primary mechanism driving this growth.
    Date: 2024–04
  4. By: Jos\'e Moran; Massimo Riccaboni
    Abstract: We review models of compositional growth, which were introduced to explain the growth statistics of various quantities ranging from firm sizes to GDP. In these models, entities are decomposed into units that grow independently. Thus, the growth rate of the entity is the addition of the growth rates of the composing units, with possibly heterogeneous weights. We review such models and show that they can be understood through a unifying theoretical framework, explaining the resulting growth rate distributions using mixtures of Gaussians.
    Date: 2024–04
  5. By: Wallis, Patrick
    Abstract: Records of long-eighteenth-century English wage rates exhibit almost absolute nominal rigidity over many decades, alongside significant dispersion between the wages paid by different organizations for the same type of work in the same location. These features of preindustrial wages have been obscured by data aggregation and the construction of real wage series, which introduce variation. In this paper, we argue that the standard explanations for wage rigidity in economic history are insufficient. We show econometric evidence for monopsony power in one major organization and argue that the main historical wage series are also affected by employer power. Eighteenth-century England had an imperfectly competitive labour market with large frictions. This gave large organizations the power to set wage policies. We discuss the implications for the eighteenth-century British economy and research into long-run wages more generally.
    Keywords: real wages; construction; eighteenth-century England; industrial revolution; labour markets; monopsony; wages
    JEL: J31 J41 K12 N33 N63 N83 J21 J22 J23
    Date: 2024–04–14
  6. By: Sebastian Ottinger; Lukas Rosenberger
    Abstract: We show that the French combatants’ exposure to the United States increased support for the French Revolution a decade later. French regions from which more American combatants originated had more revolts against feudal institutions, revolutionary societies, volunteers for the revolutionary army, and emigrants from the Old Regime’s elite. To establish causality, we exploit two historical coincidences: i) originally, a French army of seven and a half thousand was ready to sail, but one-third did not; ii) among those deployed, only some regiments were stationed in New England. Only combatants exposed to New England affected the French Revolution after their return.
    Keywords: institutional change, French Revolution, American War of Independence
    JEL: N4 D74 H1
    Date: 2024–02
  7. By: Thiago C. Silva; Paulo V. B. Wilhelm; Diego R. Amancio
    Abstract: This study examines the effects of de-globalization trends on international trade networks and their role in improving forecasts for economic growth. Using section-level trade data from nearly 200 countries from 2010 to 2022, we identify significant shifts in the network topology driven by rising trade policy uncertainty. Our analysis highlights key global players through centrality rankings, with the United States, China, and Germany maintaining consistent dominance. Using a horse race of supervised regressors, we find that network topology descriptors evaluated from section-specific trade networks substantially enhance the quality of a country's GDP growth forecast. We also find that non-linear models, such as Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM, outperform traditional linear models used in the economics literature. Using SHAP values to interpret these non-linear model's predictions, we find that about half of most important features originate from the network descriptors, underscoring their vital role in refining forecasts. Moreover, this study emphasizes the significance of recent economic performance, population growth, and the primary sector's influence in shaping economic growth predictions, offering novel insights into the intricacies of economic growth forecasting.
    Date: 2024–04
  8. By: Marie Hogan; Aakash Kalyani
    Abstract: An analysis of the diffusion of PCs, smart devices, cloud computing and 3D printing suggests that AI may spread in a pattern similar to those of PCs and cloud computing.
    Keywords: artificial intelligence; personal computers; cloud computing; productivity growth
    Date: 2024–04–04

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