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on Economic Growth |
| By: | Paula E. Gobbi; Anne Hannusch; Pauline Rossi |
| Abstract: | Much of the observed cross-country variation in fertility aligns with the predictions of classic theories of the fertility transition: countries with higher levels of human capital, higher GDP per capita, or lower mortality rates tend to exhibit lower fertility. However, when examining changes within countries over the past 60 years, larger fertility declines are only weakly associated with greater improvements in human capital, per capita GDP, or survival rates. To understand why, we focus on the role of family institutions, particularly marriage and inheritance customs. We argue that, together with the diffusion of cultural norms, they help explain variations in the timing, speed and magnitude of the fertility decline. We propose a stylized model integrating economic, health, institutional and cultural factors to study how these factors interact to shape fertility transition paths. We find that family institutions can mediate the effect of economic development by constraining fertility responses. |
| Keywords: | fertility, demographic transition, marriage, polygamy, inheritance |
| JEL: | J10 J11 J12 J13 N30 O10 O20 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_726 |
| By: | Galor, Oded |
| Abstract: | What ignited humanity's momentous ascent from millennia of stagnation to an era of sustained economic growth? And what are the roots of the vast disparities in the wealth of nations? These enduring mysteries, which have preoccupied scholars across generations, lie at the core of Unified Growth Theory. This encompassing framework captures the evolution of societies over the entire course of human history and identifies the universal wheels of change that governed humanity's long journey, propelled the growth process, and shaped inequality across the globe. The theory uncovers the forces underlying the dramatic transformation in living standards over the past two centuries, emerging from an economic ice age of near stagnation, while highlighting the enduring historical roots of the immense divergence in the prosperity of nations. It suggests that forces set in motion in the distant past played a pivotal role in shaping development across the globe and remain essential for the design of effective policies that foster economic progress and mitigate inequality in the wealth of nations. |
| Keywords: | Growth, Inequality, Unified Growth Theory, Human Capital, Demographic Transition, Malthusian epoch |
| JEL: | I25 J10 O10 O40 Z10 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1704 |
| By: | Antonin Bergeaud; Ruveyda Nur Gozen; John Van Reenen |
| Abstract: | We introduce a methodology to measure cross-country trends in innovation capability - "technological trajectories" and implement this on a new rich dataset covering patents between 1836 and 2016 across multiple countries. Intuitively, trajectories are revealed by a country's sustained increases in patenting across multiple patent offices. We first describe the data patterns, showing the relative decline of the UK, and the rise first of the US and Germany, and then later of Japan and China. We then econometrically estimate trajectories on (i) the post-1902 period for France, Germany, Japan, the UK and US, and (ii) the post-1960 period for a wider sample of 40 countries. Our trajectories are strongly positively correlated with Total Factor Productivity growth, and also (but less strongly) associated with the growth of labour productivity and capital intensity. We show that future trajectories are predicted by a country’s initial levels of R&D, education and defence spending, classic drivers of innovation in modern growth theory. |
| Keywords: | patents, technical progress, economic history, innovation |
| Date: | 2026–01–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2146 |
| By: | Elie Gray (TBS - Toulouse Business School); André Grimaud (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | We formalize inter-sectoral knowledge diffusion in a standard fully endogenous Schumpeterian growth model. Each sector is simultaneously sending and receiving knowledge; thereby, to produce new knowledge, the research and development activity of each sector draws from a pool of knowledge which stems from this diffusion. This enables us to revisit the scale effects issue by revealing how this property (inconsistent with empirical evidence) relates with knowledge diffusion (the importance of which is empirically highlighted). Weshow that suppressing knowledge diffusion across sectors is a sufficient but not necessary condition for obtaining scale-invariancy. Then, we identify several sets of assumptions which enable us to obtain models which are reasonably consistent with empirical evidence both on scale effects and how knowledge diffuses in the economy. Specifically, these models do not exhibit scale effects (or at least not significant ones) while considering various scope of knowledge diffusion (including possible occurrence of general-purpose technologies). |
| Keywords: | Schumpeterian growth theory, Scale effects, Knowledge diffusion, Knowledge, spillovers, Non rivalry, Technological distance |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04723727 |
| By: | Bontu Ankit Patro; Hannah Rubinton |
| Abstract: | This analysis suggests recent investments in AI-related categories have contributed significantly to the real U.S. economic growth in the first nine months of 2025. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence (AI); gross domestic product (GDP); software; information processing; research and development; data centers; information technology |
| Date: | 2026–01–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:102326 |
| By: | Kim, Yong Jin |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a macro-historical framework for the emergence, institutionalization, proliferation, fragmentation, and decline of religions and secular ideologies. It treats belief systems as equilibrium governance technologies that enable large-scale cooperation, legitimacy formation, and moral constraint when kin-based networks and informal reciprocity become insufficient. The framework models belief formation as a triadic supply-demand equilibrium among (i) the public, which demands justice (especially distributive justice), meaning, security, identity, and explanations of suffering; (ii) ruling authorities, which demand order, hierarchy, legitimacy, and mobilization capacity; and (iii) intellectual elites, which supply doctrines, rituals, interpretive schemas, and institutional designs. The supply-demand model yields testable hypotheses: belief systems tend to arise under crisis and coordination problems; codification and canon formation stabilize authority when actor incentives align; prosperity and intellectual specialization foster pluralization; fragmentation lowers institutional trust and state capacity; and crises of meaning resolve through reform, revival, replacement, or stagnation. The paper evaluates these claims through both supply-demand theoretical framework and comparative qualitative evidence across multiple civilizational trajectories and applies this framework to contemporary geopolitical competition, emphasizing ideological divergence within and between the United States and China. The analysis suggests that ideological capital, representing the level of belief system, is a strategic asset that conditions long-run state capacity, technological trajectories, and economic growth. |
| Keywords: | religion, ideology, supply and demand, state capacity, civilizational cycles, decadence |
| JEL: | H56 N10 O43 D91 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:334355 |