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on Economic Growth |
| By: | Broadberry, Stephen; Lennard, Jason |
| Abstract: | The modern business cycle features long expansions combined with short recessions and is thus related to the emergence of sustained economic growth. It also features significant international co-movement and is therefore associated with growing market integration and globalisation. When did these patterns first appear? This paper explores the changing nature of the business cycle using historical national accounts for nine European economies between 1300 and 2000. For the sample as a whole, the modern business cycle emerged at the end of the eighteenth century. |
| Keywords: | business cycle; economic growth; Europe |
| JEL: | N10 E32 O47 |
| Date: | 2023–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:120364 |
| By: | Dietze-Hermosa, David |
| Abstract: | This paper approaches the discussion of the Byzantine economic revival of the 11th century using a qualitative comparative methodology (S Greece and S Italy) paired with descriptive statistics, and by including the heretofore under-discussed economy of Byzantine Italy. By doing so, it reveals and confirms the economic principles, associated with the Smithian growth framework, underlying said economic revival, namely, extensive economic growth followed by intensive economic growth brought on by demand-induced industrialisation and specialisation. This process was facilitated in the Byzantine empire by elite investment, monetisation and, in latter decades of the 11th century, trade liberalisation. This is evident with both southern Greece and southern Italy’s experiences with agricultural (especially olive oil and wine) and sericultural specialisation, and with the development of the southern Greek textile (especially silk) and pottery industries. Thus, the Byzantine economy is confirmed as experiencing sustained Smithian growth in the 11th century. |
| JEL: | N14 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127150 |
| By: | Hagiwara, Takefumi |
| Abstract: | This study theoretically analyzes population aging and its impacts on economic growth, wealth inequality, and fiscal sustainability. We introduce lifetime uncertainty to the overlapping generations model with heterogeneous households with varied intertemporal preferences, where unintended bequests caused by death are inherited by offspring. Aging can have both positive and negative impacts on economic growth and fiscal sustainability: saving-enhancing effects based on the life cycle theory and wealth-depletion effects caused by extended longevity. When aging advances, saving-enhancing effects are offset by wealth-depletion effects, which eventually outweigh the former. The results show an “inverted U-shaped” relationship between life expectancy and economic growth rate, or fiscal sustainability. Numerical simulation reveals that aging can produce a trade-off between economic growth and wealth inequality. We also show that a rise in deficit or government expenditure ratios exacerbate fiscal instability, economic growth, and wealth inequality under certain conditions. |
| Keywords: | Population Aging; Secular Stagnation; Inequality; Fiscal Sustainability |
| JEL: | D63 H63 J14 O11 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124598 |
| By: | Churakov Dmitry (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University) |
| Abstract: | I have carried out a quantitative analysis of the influence of the development of the railway infrastructure in the Russian Empire on its industrial development. This topic is practically not worked out in the modern economic literature, despite the existence of the necessary tools and works devoted to this process in other countries... The results I have obtained do not support the hypothesis that the proximity to the railways had a positive effect on the population growth of the counties of the European part of the Russian Empire, on their urbanization and on industrial development, which I understand as the use of new engines by firms in production. Such conclusions are consistent with the Vogelian view that railways were not such an important driver of economic growth in the 19th century. |
| Keywords: | railways, urbanization, industry, economy of the Russian Empire |
| JEL: | N73 O14 O18 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upa:wpaper:0071 |
| By: | Sasaki, Hiroaki; Pham, Thu Giang Huong |
| Abstract: | This study presents a three-class economy model (workers, middle class, and capitalists) and investigates how the middle-class share evolves over time. It also examines the relationship between the middle-class share and economic growth. Depending on the parameters and initial conditions, three different long-run situations arise: (i) an Anti-Dual equilibrium, in which workers and capitalists coexist while the middle class vanishes; (ii) a Pasinetti equilibrium, in which all three classes coexist; and (iii) a Dual equilibrium, in which workers and the middle class coexist while capitalists vanish. An expanding middle-class share either increases or decreases economic growth depending on the conditions. |
| Keywords: | classical growth model; middle class; income distribution |
| JEL: | E24 E25 E32 |
| Date: | 2025–04–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124475 |
| By: | Roy, Tirthankar |
| Abstract: | The economic emergence of societies in arid and semi-arid tropical regions depended on their ability to extract and recycle water and manipulate the environment for this purpose. India is a prominent example of this process. This pathway to economic growth has significant political and environmental costs. In light of climate change, a key question for the future is: Is tropical development sustainable in this way? The paper answers by drawing on the economic history of the tropical arid regions and a recent literature on climate impact on water resources. |
| JEL: | N50 N55 O13 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125641 |
| By: | Ribeiro, Marcos; Prettner, Klaus |
| Abstract: | How do new technologies affect economic growth and the skill premium? To answer this question, we analyze the impact of industrial robots and artificial intelligence (AI) on the wage differential between low-skill and high-skill workers across 52 countries using counterfactual simulations. In so doing, we extend the nested CES production function framework of Bloom et al. (2025) to account for cross-country income heterogeneity. Confirming prior findings, we show that the use of industrial robots tends to increase wage inequality, while the use of AI tends to reduce it. Our contribution lies in documenting substantial heterogeneity across income groups: the inequality-increasing effect of robots and the inequality-reducing effects of AI are particularly strong in high-income countries, while they are less pronounced among middle- and lower-middle income countries. In addition, we show that both technologies boost economic growth. In terms of policy recommendations, our findings suggest that investments in education and skill-upgrading can simultaneously raise average incomes and mitigate the negative effects of automation on wage inequality. |
| Keywords: | Automation Industrial Robots AI Skill premium |
| JEL: | J31 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–04–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124633 |