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on Economic Growth |
| By: | Zhang, Yuqian |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the multifaceted dynamics of economic growth in India and Singapore over a span of 50 years, utilizing the Solow and Romer models to decompose growth into its core components: total factor productivity (TFP), capital, and labor. Through a detailed growth accounting methodology, we analyze how these elements contribute distinctly to the GDP trajectories of these two contrasting economies. Our analysis reveals that while both labor expansion and capital accumulation play pivotal roles in short-term growth, it is the enhancement of TFP that emerges as the crucial determinant of sustainable economic progress over the long term. In Singapore, a developed economy characterized by its status as one of the Asian Tigers, TFP and labor productivity have been the primary drivers of its more consistent and long-term growth. Conversely, Indias growth has been more influenced by capital accumulation, particularly following economic liberalizations that spurred foreign investment and industrial diversification. The findings underscore the importance of TFP growth in both developing and mature economies, highlighting its significance in policy formulation aimed at stimulating economic development. This study not only charts a historical analysis of growth patterns but also aligns them with theoretical underpinnings that suggest pathways for future economic strategies in similar emerging and developed markets. |
| Keywords: | Solow growth model; growth accounting; TFP growth; Romer model |
| JEL: | O47 O53 O40 C82 E23 |
| Date: | 2024–12–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127021 |
| By: | Diogo Baerlocher (University of South Florida); Diego Firmino (Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco); Guilherme Lambais (Lusíada University of Lisbon); Eustaquio Reis (Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada); Henrique Veras (Universidade Federal de Pernambuco) |
| Abstract: | Following the discovery of gold in 1694 in Brazil, pathways were constructed to connect coastal settlements to mining regions in the unpopulated interior. While these pathways initially facilitated the creation of road towns, their influence faded by the late nineteenth century. With the mid-twentieth-century demographic and industrial transition, regions with higher historical road density experienced renewed population growth and greater migrant inflows. We argue that this resurgence reflects the role of road towns in fostering early urbanization and structural transformation. Using an extended Rosen-Roback-Glaeser framework, we estimate strong agglomeration spillovers, suggesting that Brazil’s spatial economy exhibits multiple steady states and historical path dependence. |
| Keywords: | Historical Roads, Geography, Multiple Equilibria, Path Dependence, Persistence, Population Density |
| JEL: | R12 N96 O18 O43 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usf:wpaper:2025-01 |
| By: | Gilles Dufrénot (Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille and CEPII); Edem Egnikpo (Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille) |
| Abstract: | We propose a new approach to measure the sensitivity of economic growth to natural disasters in developing countries at different time horizons (short, medium, and long term). We allow for heterogeneous effects across growth regimes and intensities of disaster shocks using quantile-on-quantile regressions and wavelet decomposition. Our findings yield several insights. First, small disaster shocks boost GDP per capita growth in low-growth countries across all horizons. By contrast, in high-growth countries, such shocks cause sharp short-term growth declines, followed by a rapid recovery in the medium term, albeit without regaining the pre-disaster growth trajectory in the long term. Second, severe disaster shocks lead to long-term growth losses in highgrowth countries, despite their initial resilience. Conversely, low-growth countries experience immediate and persistent growth declines that worsen over time. Third, the role of macroeconomic variables in mitigating or amplifying growth losses varies depending on the growth regime, disaster severity, and time horizon. |
| Keywords: | Natural Disasters, growth, developing countries, quantile-on-quantile |
| JEL: | C50 O44 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2437 |
| By: | Andrey Timofeev (International Center for Public Policy, Georgia State University) |
| Abstract: | I attempt to reconcile two vast strands of literature that essentially estimate the same empirical relationship. Tax effort studies aim to benchmark a countryÕs tax-to-GDP ratio to tax outcomes observed in other countries under comparable conditions, in particular under similar levels of economic development, proxied with the real GDP per capita. A completely separate strand of literature deals with estimating tax buoyancy, which is measured as the percentage change in tax revenue associated with a 1-percent change in GDP. While dealing with some of the same data (tax revenues and GDP) as in the tax effort studies, the tax buoyancy literature has developed econometric methods that are more robust to the empirical challenges presented by these data. In this paper, I establish correspondence between the statistical parameters estimated in these two separate strands of literature. Thus, I show that an estimate of long-run buoyancy can be translated into the magnitude of the impact of economic development on the tax-to-GDP ratio by making adjustments for how the population size and real exchange rate interact with economic growth. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper2417 |
| By: | Federico, Giovanni; Tena Junguito, Antonio |
| Abstract: | The number of people is one of the most basic facts about any society, but it is difficult to ascertain. The data are missing for most of human history and scarce until the early 19th century for advanced countries and the early 20th century for the rest of the world until. Yet, historical demographers have tried hard and often successfully to estimate population in the past, but their results have been neglected largely in the most common general historical databases. Our research project fills this gap in our knowledge. We have estimated the population series for all polities from 1800 to 1938 at historical and 1991 borders, using firsthand sources and country-specific literature. In this working paper we survey the previous estimates, list our sources, describe the methods of estimation in general and their application to each polity, sketch out main trends and discuss the reliability of our data, estimating their margin of error |
| Keywords: | World population historical dataset; Demographic transition |
| JEL: | I10 J11 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–01–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:whrepe:45843 |
| By: | Ngoc-Sang Pham (EM Normandie); Thanh Tam Nguyen-Huu |
| Abstract: | We investigate the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the transitional dynamics of host countries by using an optimal growth model. FDI may be beneficial for the host country because local people can work for multinational firms to get a favorable salary. However, if the host country only focuses on FDI, it may face a middle-income trap. We show that if the host country invests in research and development, its economy may have sustained growth. Moreover, in this case, FDI helps the host country only at the first stages of its development process. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2501.12010 |