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on Economic Growth |
| By: | Chu, Angus; Xu, Rongxin |
| Abstract: | This study develops an open-economy Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous takeoff to explore how tourism affects the transition of an economy from stagnation to growth. Suppose leisure preference is strong. Then, an expansion in tourism triggers an earlier takeoff and raises the transitional growth rate when tourism reliance is low, but delays takeoff and lowers the transitional growth rate when tourism reliance is high. We use cross-country panel data and find that tourism has an inverted-U effect on economic growth, consistent with our theoretical prediction. We also calibrate the model to data in Macau and find that the growth-maximizing size of the tourism-related sector is about 60% of GDP. |
| Keywords: | tourism; endogenous takeoff; innovation |
| JEL: | O3 O4 Z0 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127890 |
| By: | Szymon Chudziak |
| Abstract: | Research on economic growth has been focused predominantly on production and innovation. The issue of how the funds of consumers and firms grow enough to enable the growth of nominal and real sales has been clouded either by the general equilibrium assumption or end-of-period measure of stock-flow consistency. Both imply that households and firms purchase the increased production using revenues from the very sales that generated them. In this paper, a financially and timing robust mechanism of growth of demand and funds available for spending is proposed. The fundamental mechanism is the sustainable, non-Ponzi, growth of value of new consumer and investment loans. It is proven why that is the case, and demonstrated that growth can occur only under stringent conditions concerning solvency and initial growth rates’ values. The proposed initialisation consistency procedure, among else, eliminates the burn-in periods problem. Results show nonlinear dependence of growth rates on the sizes of new debts and debt durations. Economic growth is the fastest when either the firms' or the consumers' sector takes out relatively large loans, but not both. While multiperiod debts are necessary for the growth process and long debt durations make more scenarios from the grid of parameters possible, they do not guarantee the fastest growth, the relation between debt duration, sizes of debts relative to incomes, and output/sales growth rates is nonlinear. The multiplier relation between growing income and spending, as well as endogenous behavioural spending are identified as second-order determinants of growth. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth, new loans, debt polynomial, spending behaviour |
| JEL: | O41 O40 E51 G51 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgh:kaewps:2026117 |
| By: | Debin Ma (Fudan University); Jared Rubin (Chapman University); Weiwen Yin (University of Macau) |
| Abstract: | This paper revisits the old thesis of the contrasting paths of modernization between Japan and China. It develops a new analytical framework regarding the role of knowledge acquisition (propositional vs. prescriptive) and political centralization as the key drivers behind these contrasting paths. Our model and historical data highlight how the introduction of these elements contributed to Meiji Japan’s decisive turn towards the West and Qing China’s lethargic response to Western imperialism. Our analytical framework, developed from a comparative historical narrative and quantitative data, sheds new light on the importance of knowledge acquisition in enabling developing countries to reach the world’s economic frontier. |
| Keywords: | propositional knowledge, prescriptive knowledge, China, Japan, economic development, economic divergence, Meiji Reform, centralization, decentralization |
| JEL: | P52 N45 N40 Z10 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chu:wpaper:26-04 |
| By: | Sintos, Andreas; Chletsos, Michael; Xydea, Eleni |
| Abstract: | The relationship between health spending and economic growth is shaped by multiple transmission channels, leading to inconsistencies in the empirical literature and a lack of definitive conclusions. To address this issue, we perform a meta‐analysis encompassing 522 estimates from 107 studies that examine the effect of health spending on economic growth. Our analysis uncovers the presence of a negative publication bias of moderate magnitude in the literature. However, after accounting for both publication bias and methodological shortcomings in the primary studies, we find that health spending exerts a substantial positive effect on economic growth. Furthermore, our findings demonstrate that the reported estimates are shaped by various factors, including differences in how economic growth and health spending are measured, the characteristics of the data, publication attributes, and the inclusion of other growth‐related variables. |
| Keywords: | economic growth; health spending; meta‐analysis |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2026–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137717 |
| By: | Isaak Mengesha; Debraj Roy |
| Abstract: | Economic growth is conventionally analyzed at the national level, yet cities generate the bulk of global output. Here we construct GDP trajectories for 8, 808 functional urban areas (FUAs) across 165 countries over 1993-2019 using satellite-derived nighttime light data and identify 17 distinct, persistent growth regimes through clustering of full temporal trajectories. Rather than converging toward a common frontier, FUAs inhabit distinct economic niches-analogous to ecological niches-defined by shared volatility profiles, shock responses, and long-run dynamics that transcend national boundaries. Cities within the same country frequently belong to different regimes, while structurally similar cities on different continents share the same one; regime membership explains 16% of within-country growth variance beyond country fixed effects. National-level convergence emerges as an aggregation artifact: conditional convergence operates within regimes, not globally. A directed propagation network reveals that shocks transmit along lines of structural similarity rather than geographic proximity, with advanced economies exporting disturbances and emerging economies absorbing or amplifying them. Within-country spatial inequality declines with industrialization maturity, consistent with growth initially concentrating in leading cities before diffusing across the urban system. The global economy is better understood as an ecology of heterogeneous urban growth regimes than as a collection of nations on a shared development path. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.16007 |
| By: | RAHAL, Imen; Khalifa, Zayed |
| Abstract: | Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become one of the most influential drivers of economic transformation in the 21st century. By boosting productivity, optimizing business processes, supporting innovation, and enabling the emergence of new industries, AI contributes significantly to long-term economic growth. However, this technological shift also brings risks such as labor market disruption, inequality, skill mismatches, and regulatory gaps. This article examines the relationship between AI adoption and economic growth, highlighting the mechanisms through which AI stimulates economic performance, the structural challenges it generates, and strategies needed to ensure inclusive and sustainable growth. The paper draws on recent literature, economic reports, and empirical studies to offer a comprehensive perspective on the future of AI-driven economic expansion. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence, Economic Growth, Productivity, Innovation, Labor Market, Digital Transformation.; Artificial Intelligence, Economic Growth, Productivity, Innovation, Labor Market, Digital Transformation. |
| JEL: | O4 |
| Date: | 2025–10–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127061 |
| By: | Halkos, George; Zisiadou, Argyro |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the dynamic, long-run relationships between environmental degradation, measured by carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and a comprehensive set of macroeconomic determinants, including economic growth (GDP), energy consumption, trade openness and urbanization in Greece. Utilizing annual time-series data spanning the period 1970–2014, determines the direction of causality among variables. The empirical results provide strong evidence for the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables. Specifically, the findings do not validate the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis for the Greek economy, identifying a statistically significant N-shaped relationship where environmental degradation initially rises with economic expansion before reaching a structural turning point (local maximun), subsequently declining reaching a second turning point (local minimum), followed by an additional rise. The causal analysis reveals a unidirectional linkage flowing from economic growth and energy consumption to CO2 in the long run, suggesting that Greece’s historical growth model has been energy-intensive. From a policy perspective, the study concludes that for Greece to sustain its downward environmental trajectory, it must shift toward a high-efficiency energy mix and decouple its GDP growth from carbon-intensive industrial activities, aligning with broader European Union climate mandates and the global transition toward a low-carbon economy. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Kuznets Curve; Economic growth; environmental degradation; Greece; sustainability; CO₂ emissions. |
| JEL: | C50 O20 Q01 Q52 Q53 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–03–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128430 |