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on Economic Growth |
| By: | Gobbi, Paula (Université Libre de Bruxelles); Hannusch, Anne (University of Bonn); Rossi, Pauline (CREST) |
| Abstract: | Much of the observed cross-country variation in fertility aligns with the predictions of classic theories of the fertility transition: countries with higher levels of human capital, higher GDP per capita, or lower mortality rates tend to exhibit lower fertility. However, when examining changes within countries over the past 60 years, larger fertility declines are only weakly associated with greater improvements in human capital, per capita GDP, or survival rates. To understand why, we focus on the role of family institutions, particularly marriage and inheritance customs. We argue that, together with the diffusion of cultural norms, they help explain variations in the timing, speed and magnitude of the fertility decline. We propose a stylized model integrating economic, health, institutional and cultural factors to study how these factors interact to shape fertility transition paths. We find that family institutions can mediate the effect of economic development by constraining fertility responses. |
| Keywords: | marriage, family institutions, fertility, inheritance |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18262 |
| By: | William Brock; Anastasios Xepapadeas |
| Abstract: | This paper puts forth a growth model that takes into account the fact that the economy is embedded in a finite Earth. Economic activity uses services which are provided by the biosphere; however, this supply is finite. The question we explore in this paper is whether ideas that drive the accumulation of "brown" and "green" R&D that produces material goods which could be biosphere using or biosphere saving can provide persistent growth when the whole system is embedded in a finite Earth. Or, to put it differently, whether it is possible to have persistent growth supported by idea-driven technical change without violating the impact inequality proposed by Dasgupta (2021), which compares global demand for services provided by the biosphere to the supply of these services. We develop optimal time allocation models and provide conditions that support the feasibility of growth when the net impact on biosphere is zero. |
| Keywords: | growth, limits, biosphere, impact inequality, biosphere saving technology, combination of ideas, spillovers |
| JEL: | O44 J13 Q01 |
| Date: | 2025–11–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aue:wpaper:2564 |
| By: | Chu, Angus C. |
| Abstract: | Early humans undertook multiple waves of migration out of Africa and back to the continent. We explore prehistoric human migration in a two-region Malthusian growth model. Whether migration occurs depends on the migration cost, relative population size, relative land supply and relative hunting-gathering productivity between regions. Suppose one region is initially uninhabited. Then, a lower migration cost leads to migration and a larger human population. Back migration occurs when hunting-gathering productivity and supply of natural resources in the foreign region decrease relative to the home region, which provides an economic rationale for the multi-directional "shuttle dispersal model" of prehistoric human migration out of and back to Africa. |
| Keywords: | Prehistoric human migration; Malthusian growth theory |
| JEL: | O15 O44 Q56 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126606 |
| By: | Araujo, Daniel; Laudares, Humberto; Murillo, Dafne; Paredes, Hector; Valencia Caicedo, Felipe |
| Abstract: | Can a brief period of economic prosperity leave a legacy of long-term adversity for local populations? This study investigates the enduring impact of the Amazon rubber boom around 1900 on contemporary income, inequality, Indigenous groups presence, and forest conservation. Identification exploits variation in historical rubber suitability across municipalities and discontinuities around rubber concession boundaries. Municipalities with larger shares of rubber-suitable land experienced an initial economic surge, as evidenced by higher per capita GDP in the 1920 Census, but this prosperity was not sustained by 2010. Increased ethnic mixing, already visible in the 1872 Census, indicates that earlier economic expansion intensified contact with Indigenous groups. In the long run, rubber-suitable areas show lower population density, higher extinction of Indigenous groups, and greater income inequality. Consistent with the disproportionate violence and labor coercion inflicted on Indigenous groups, our Regression Discontinuity analysis further documents long-lasting environmental effects, with higher rates of deforestation, coca cultivation, and cattle raising in former rubber concession areas. Together, the results suggest that while the rubber boom generated short-term wealth, it left a legacy of persistent underdevelopment, social transformation, and environmental degradation. |
| Keywords: | Commodity Exploitation;Rubber;Amazon;indigenous peoples;Forced Labor;Persistence;Private Concessions;Economic history |
| JEL: | N36 O15 J15 O13 N56 Q33 D31 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14374 |
| By: | Moreira, Thiago; Batista, Rodrigo |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the complex interconnections between education, human capital formation, and cultural contexts in shaping economic transformation processes. Building on both classical and contemporary theories of human capital, the study argues that education is not only a driver of productivity and innovation but also a social institution deeply embedded in cultural and institutional frameworks. Using a mixed-methods approach, the analysis combines cross-country statistical data with comparative case studies of Finland, South Korea, Vietnam, and Ghana to examine how cultural values and governance structures mediate the outcomes of educational investment. The results reveal that the effectiveness of education in driving transformation depends on its alignment with societal values and institutional capacity. Countries where education systems reflect shared cultural norms—such as discipline, equality, and respect for knowledge—demonstrate higher returns in innovation and structural diversification. Conversely, nations where formal education remains detached from local contexts experience limited developmental impact, even when resources are substantial. The study concludes that education-led transformation requires cultural adaptability, institutional integrity, and long-term policy coherence. By integrating economic, cultural, and institutional dimensions, this research contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of how education functions as both a catalyst for growth and a mechanism of social cohesion in the process of economic transformation. |
| Keywords: | Education and development; human capital; cultural context; institutional governance; economic transformation; social cohesion; comparative analysis; policy adaptation. |
| JEL: | O1 |
| Date: | 2025–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126818 |
| By: | Andrés Erosa; Luisa Fuster; Gueorgui Kambourov; Richard Rogerson |
| Abstract: | Two robust empirical facts are that mean wages and cross-sectional wage dispersion both increase over the life cycle. We study how these two changes vary across occupations and document a strong positive correlation: occupations with high mean wage growth over the life cycle also exhibit greater increases in cross-sectional wage dispersion. We develop a novel dynamic Roy model that features both static and dynamic comparative advantage and show that it can account for the variation in life cycle wage distributions across high and low wage occupations. Dynamic comparative advantage reflects individual heterogeneity in occupation specific learning abilities and is the dominant force that shapes occupation choice in our model. We highlight several important implications of dynamic comparative advantage and show that our model captures the data better than a benchmark model that features persistent shocks. |
| JEL: | E24 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34481 |