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on Economic Growth |
| By: | Oded Galor (Brown University) |
| Abstract: | What sparked humanity’s leap from stagnation to prosperity? What lies at the core of inequality among nations? Unified Growth Theory explores the evolution of societies over the entire course of human history. It uncovers the universal wheels of change that have governed the journey of humanity, driven the growth process, and shaped inequality across the globe. The theory sheds light on two of the most fundamental mysteries surrounding this journey: (i) The Mystery of Growth—the origins of the dramatic transformation in human prosperity over the past two centuries, in the wake of millennia of near stagnation; and (ii) The Mystery of Inequality—the roots of the vast inequality in the wealth of nations. The theory suggests that forces operating in the distant past are central to the understanding of the uneven development across the globe and the design of effective policies that could promote economic growth and mitigate inequality. |
| Keywords: | Growth, Inequality, Unified Growth Theory, Human Capital, Demographic Transition, Malthusian epoch |
| JEL: | I25 J10 O10 Z10 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2528 |
| By: | Davit Gondauri |
| Abstract: | The economy in the modern world is greatly influenced by artificial intelligence (AI). This paper aims to determine the impact of AI quantitative relationships on the country's economic parameters, including GDP per Capita. Historical data analysis is used in the research. A new mathematical algorithm for the magnitude of a technological level and AI factors vector has been developed. The study calculated the economic effect of AI on GDP per Capita. As a result of the analysis, it was revealed that there is a positive Pearson correlation between growth. On AI and GDP per Capita, that is, to increase GDP per Capita by 1%, an average increase of 23.9% in AI is required. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.11991 |
| By: | Luisa Corrado (DEF and CEIS, Università di Roma "Tor Vergata"); Stefano Grassi (DEF and CEIS, Università di Roma "Tor Vergata"); Aldo Paolillo (Università di Roma "Tor Vergata") |
| Abstract: | Recent studies suggest that space activities generate significant economic benefits. This paper attempts to quantify these effects by modeling both business cycle and long-run effects driven by space sector activities. We develop a model in which technologies are shaped by both a dedicated R&D sector and spillovers from space-sector innovations. Using U.S. data from the 1960s to the present day, we analyze patent grants to distinguish between space and core sector technologies. By leveraging the network of patent citations, we further examine the evolving dependence between space and core technologies over time. Our findings highlight the positive impact of the aerospace sector on technological innovation and economic growth, particularly during the 1960s and 1970s. |
| Keywords: | Aerospace, Space Economy, Growth |
| JEL: | A1 C5 E00 O10 |
| Date: | 2025–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:609 |
| By: | Christopher Blattman; Scott Gehlbach; Zeyang Yu |
| Abstract: | Studies of income and regime type typically contrast democracies and autocracies, ignoring heterogeneity in the character of authoritarian regimes. We focus on the consequences of personalist rule, where power is concentrated in an individual or small elite. Extending the dynamic panel strategy of Acemoglu, Naidu, Restrepo, and Robinson (2019), we estimate the differential growth performance of democracies, institutionalized autocracies, and personalist autocracies. Across eight GDP series, eight autocracy codings, and six measures of personalism, we observe a consistent pattern: Whenever an "autocratic penalty" emerges, it is concentrated in personalist regimes. The growth performance of institutionalized dictatorships, in contrast, is statistically indistinguishable from that of democracies. We document evidence that the "personalist penalty" is driven by some combination of low private investment, poor public-goods provision, and conflict. These findings emphasize the analytic payoff of unpacking autocracy and highlight the different incentives facing leaders with narrow and broad bases of power. |
| JEL: | D72 O11 O43 P0 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34093 |
| By: | Gallo, Ettore; Zamparelli, Luca |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a demand-led growth model augmented with induced technical change to address the two Harrod's problems in growth theory. Building on recent developments in the supermultiplier literature, we investigate how both Harrodian instability problems can be resolved through two complementary mechanisms: (1) autonomous, non-capacity-creating demand components growing at an exogenous rate, and (2) endogenous technical change responsive to income distribution. While existing supermultiplier models show how autonomous expenditures stabilize demand-led growth, we integrate induced technical change into the determination of the natural rate of growth. The model achieves twin stabilization through the interplay of two stabilizing mechanisms: the supermultiplier and induced technical change. On the one hand, demand shocks are absorbed via adjustments in the investment share, allowing capital accumulation to align with the exogenously determined growth rate of autonomous expenditures. On the other hand, labor market imbalances trigger productivity adjustments that reconcile natural and warranted growth through changes in the wage share. This dual adjustment mechanism allows the system to sustain normal capacity utilization and stable employment rates, while preserving demand-led growth outcomes. The results suggest that incorporating induced technical change enhances the supermultiplier's capacity to address both of Harrod's instability problems within a unified demand-led framework. |
| Keywords: | Harrodian instability; Supermultiplier model; Induced technical change; Demand-led growth |
| JEL: | E12 E21 O33 O41 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125533 |
| By: | Raquel Fernández |
| Abstract: | Culture’s influence on economic outcomes is no longer controversial among economists even if it remains largely ignored in many areas of economics. This paper tackles a different question: why does culture change? The underlying premise adopted here is that culture changes because incentives change, transforming actions and beliefs. An idiosyncratic review of the literature follows that illustrates how the environment (e.g., the prevalence of pathogens or the suitability of land for pastoralism) and historical experiences (e.g., colonization, war, or migration) can affect relationships of power in society and shape people’s beliefs. It then examines the role of new information and ideas (i.e., learning) and finally the role of policies in shaping incentives and changing culture. A second part of the paper reviews work that models the mechanisms of cultural change more explicitly, using quantitative models to examine the interplay between economic incentives and evolving beliefs or preferences and to study the importance of intermediating mechanisms. Given that one of the most profound cultural and economic transformations of the past 150 years concerns gender roles, this theme recurs throughout. |
| JEL: | P0 Z1 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34077 |