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on Economic Growth |
| By: | Alberto Bisin; Thierry Verdier |
| Abstract: | In this chapter we survey recent advances in modeling cultural transmission in the economics literature. We first present the basic canonical model of the evolution of cultural traits in the social sciences. Both Economics and Evolutionary anthropology build on this canonical model but their approaches are conceptually very different. After elucidating these differences, we introduce several recent economic models of cultural transmission which address a rich set of novel and interesting questions in the literature. We present these models as extensions of the canonical framework, organized along theoretical dimensions that we categorize as pertaining to preferences and technology. We finally briefly discuss how cultural evolution represents a fundamental component - alongside institutional change - of recent theoretical work on the political economy of long-run growth. We conclude suggesting interesting areas for future research. |
| JEL: | C60 D1 N0 P0 Z10 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33928 |
| By: | Arnaud Deseau (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Adam Levai (LISER - Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research, UCL IRES - Institut de recherches économiques et sociales - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain); Michèle Schmiegelow (UCLouvain) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the importance of access to justice (ATJ) for economic growth. To do so, we create a new database on the number of judges per capita by collecting data from various public institutions and academic publications. We use these data as a country-level indicator to capture the structural evolution of ATJ from 1970 to 2019 for a wide range of developed and developing countries. Using an instrumental variable approach in a dynamic panel setting to deal with endogeneity, we show that ATJ has a sizable positive effect on economic growth. The substantial aggregate effect of ATJ on growth is independent of countries' legal origin, customary law, rule of law or level of democracy. However, we find evidence that the economic returns from ATJ are higher in poorer countries. In terms of mechanisms, our results suggest that ATJ promotes growth via higher government accountability and improved institutional quality.''Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels'' [Sustainable Development Goal 16 (United Nations, 2015)] ✩ We would like to thank the editor, Evi Pappa, several anonymous referees, as well as Alexia Autenne, |
| Keywords: | Access to justice, Economic growth, Institutions, Judges, Access to justice Economic growth Institutions Judges |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05067001 |
| By: | Terzi, A.; Ramsay, A. |
| Abstract: | As climate change intensifies, it is expected to affect countries across the globe in highly heterogeneous ways, depending on each nation's geographical location and level of development. Yet, most long-term economic projections do not take this factor explicitly into account. Could climate-induced weather events shape the relative wealth – and therefore geopolitical clout – of countries over the 21st century? In this paper, we present GDP projections for 164 countries between 2025 and 2100 under different SSP-RCP scenarios. Three fundamental conclusions emerge. First, under any climate scenario, the world is heading towards a multipolar equilibrium, with the US, China and Europe remaining the dominant economic blocs. India is on the rise, but is not currently expected to match the scale of these three by century’s end. Second, the global concentration of GDP is projected to decline, indicating increasing potential for geopolitical fragmentation and a relative "rise of the Rest". Third, a scenario marked by heightened geopolitical rivalry would exacerbate climate damages and harm growth in all countries, but particularly so for emerging markets, making China's surpassing of the US even more unlikely. Despite the large direct nominal losses arising from climate change, our results suggest that its indirect effects—through slower productivity growth and demographic shifts—will be even more consequential in shaping the future wealth of nations. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change, Geopolitics, Socio-Economic Pathways, Economic Growth, International Political Economy |
| JEL: | F02 F52 O44 O47 Q56 |
| Date: | 2025–07–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:0000 |
| By: | Verónica Acurio Vásconez; Mónica Pereira Henriques |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the nuanced interplay between the green energy rebound effect and the elasticity of substitution within a Solow growth model. Our study characterizes how the rebound effect varies with the elasticity of substitution between production factors. Our findings demonstrate that technological progress in green or fossil energy leads to different consumption patterns depending on the elasticity of substitution. For substitution elasticities below one, technological advances result in slower increases in energy consumption relative to labor growth, while for elasticities above one, energy consumption accelerates. These insights underscore the critical role of substitution elasticities in shaping effective energy policies, highlighting opportunities to mitigate the rebound effect and promote sustainable energy transitions. |
| Keywords: | rebound effect, energy transition, Solow model, elasticity of substitution. |
| JEL: | E13 O41 O44 Q43 Q55 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2025-12 |
| By: | Mark Budolfson; Michael Geruso; Kevin J. Kuruc; Dean Spears; Sangita Vyas |
| Abstract: | A smaller human population would emit less carbon, other things equal, but how large is the effect? Here we test the widely-shared view that an important benefit of the ongoing, global decline in fertility will be reductions in long-run temperatures. We contrast a baseline of global depopulation (the most likely future) with a counterfactual in which the world population continues to grow for two more centuries. Although the two population paths differ by billions of people in 2200, we find that the implied temperatures would differ by less than one tenth of a degree C—far too small to impact climate goals. Timing drives the result. Depopulation is coming within the 21st century, but not for decades. Fertility shifts take generations to meaningfully change population size, by which time per capita emissions are projected to have significantly declined, even under pessimistic policy assumptions. Meanwhile, a smaller population slows the non-rival innovation that powers improvements in long-run productivity and living standards, an effect we estimate to be quantitatively important. Once the possibility of large-scale net-negative emissions is accounted for, even the sign of the population-temperature link becomes ambiguous. Humans cause greenhouse gas emissions, but human depopulation, starting in a few decades, will not meet today’s climate challenges. |
| JEL: | J11 J13 O30 O40 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33932 |
| By: | Natalie Bau; Sara Lowes; Eduardo Montero |
| Abstract: | Culture shapes how policies are made and how people react to them. This chapter explores how culture and development policy affect each other. First, we provide evidence that cultural mismatch — specifically a mismatch between project manager background and the location of project implementation — is associated with the reduced success of World Bank projects. Second, drawing on historical and ethnographic work, we show that disregarding local cultural norms can undermine well-intentioned development policies. Third, we review economic research demonstrating that cultural practices systematically shape policy effectiveness, often leading to heterogeneous or unintended effects. Fourth, we discuss evidence that policies themselves can reshape cultural norms, sometimes in unexpected ways. Finally, we discuss research on tailoring interventions to the local context and conclude with lessons for future research. |
| JEL: | N0 O10 Z1 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33947 |
| By: | Ziesemer, Thomas (Mt Economic Research Inst on Innov/Techn, RS: GSBE MORSE) |
| Abstract: | Macroeconomic productivity is modelled as a Cobb-Douglas function of private and public R&D stocks in recent literature. The slope parameters of a growth rate version may change over time and with circumstances. Using the method of functional-coefficient regression, we show that human capital, GDP (per worker), services and defence R&D (both % GDP), lags of domestic and foreign private and public R&D, and lagged labour-augmenting technical change, all in growth rates, change the elasticities of productivity. The result is a panel data set of regression coefficients representing elasticities of productivity. Eventually, the panel average of the productivity elasticities of domestic and foreign private R&D goes to constant values; elasticities of public R&D go down slightly. This may contribute to an explanation of the productivity slowdown and why private R&D has been expanded relative to public R&D in recent years. |
| JEL: | O33 O47 |
| Date: | 2025–07–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2025017 |
| By: | Francesco Agostinelli; Matthias Doepke; Giuseppe Sorrenti; Fabrizio Zilibotti |
| Abstract: | This chapter argues that parenting choices are a central force in the joint evolution of culture and economic outcomes. We present a framework in which parents-motivated by both their children’s future success and their own normative beliefs-choose parenting styles and transmit cultural traits responding to economic incentives. Values such as work ethic, patience, and religiosity are more likely to be instilled when their anticipated returns, economic or otherwise, are high. The interaction between parenting and economic conditions gives rise to endogenous cultural and economic stratification. We extend the model to include residential sorting and social interactions, showing how neighborhood choice reinforces disparities in trust and human capital. Empirical evidence from the World Values Survey supports the model’s key predictions. We conclude by highlighting open questions at the intersection of parenting, culture, and inequality. |
| JEL: | D10 I24 O10 O4 R20 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33963 |