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on Economic Growth |
| By: | Constantin Chilarescu |
| Abstract: | The main purpose of this paper is to generalize some recent results obtained by Chilarescu and Manuel Gomez. Essentially, we are trying to study the effect of elasticity of substitution on the parameters of economic growth, based on its two possible values - lower and higher than one. We show that a higher elasticity of substitution increases per capita income, the relative share of physical capital, the common growth rate and the share of human capital allocated to the production sector, and this property is not affected by the position of the elasticity of substitution - below or above one. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.02936 |
| By: | Oscar Claveria (Department of Econometrics, Statistics and Applied Economics. Universitat de Barcelona, Spain.) |
| Abstract: | This study examines income inequality across 53 Asian countries from 1990 to 2021, focusing on the application of the Kuznets’ curve theory. This hypothesis states an inverted U-shaped relationship exists between economic growth and inequality, suggesting an initial increase followed by a decline in income disparity as GDP per capita growth. We analyzed data accruing the share of income of the Top 1% income holders of each country, by regions and for the continent as a whole. We employed a fixed-effects panel model with GDP per capita, squared GDP per capita and cubed GDP per capita as explanatory variables. Our results include mixed evidence of the completion of the curve: Asia overall supports the Kuznets’ curve however the regional analysis reveal differences. While East and South Asia present with significant U-shaped relationship patterns, Central Asia shows an inverted N-shaped relationship. Referencing to West and Southeast Asia, they demonstrate similar U-shaped trends however not statistically significant. This research contributes by offering region-specific insights into inequality dynamics relating to economic growth to provide policymakers with tools to target interventions for inclusive development across Asian countries. |
| Keywords: | income inequality; economic growth; Kuznets’ curve hypothesis; economic uncertainty; Asia. JEL classification: C50, D31, E64, O53. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:202505 |
| By: | Philipp Koch; Viktor Stojkoski; C\'esar A. Hidalgo |
| Abstract: | Can we use data on the biographies of historical figures to estimate the GDP per capita of countries and regions? Here we introduce a machine learning method to estimate the GDP per capita of dozens of countries and hundreds of regions in Europe and North America for the past 700 years starting from data on the places of birth, death, and occupations of hundreds of thousands of historical figures. We build an elastic net regression model to perform feature selection and generate out-of-sample estimates that explain 90% of the variance in known historical income levels. We use this model to generate GDP per capita estimates for countries, regions, and time periods for which this data is not available and externally validate our estimates by comparing them with four proxies of economic output: urbanization rates in the past 500 years, body height in the 18th century, wellbeing in 1850, and church building activity in the 14th and 15th century. Additionally, we show our estimates reproduce the well-known reversal of fortune between southwestern and northwestern Europe between 1300 and 1800 and find this is largely driven by countries and regions engaged in Atlantic trade. These findings validate the use of fine-grained biographical data as a method to produce historical GDP per capita estimates. We publish our estimates with confidence intervals together with all collected source data in a comprehensive dataset. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.09399 |
| By: | Timothy F. Power; Roman G. Smirnov |
| Abstract: | The aggregate Cobb-Douglas production function stands as a central element in the renowned Solow-Swan model in economics, providing a crucial theoretical framework for comprehending the determinants of economic growth. This model not only guides policymakers and economists but also influences their decisions, fostering sustainable and inclusive development. In this study, we utilize a one-input version of a new generalization of the Cobb-Douglas production function proposed recently, thereby extending the Solow-Swan model to incorporate energy production as a factor. We offer a rationale for this extension and conduct a comprehensive analysis employing advanced mathematical tools to explore solutions to this new model. This approach allows us to effectively integrate environmental considerations related to energy production into economic growth strategies, fostering long-term sustainability. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.10864 |
| By: | Giuseppe Berlingieri; Maarten De Ridder; Danial Lashkari; Davide Rigo |
| Abstract: | In theories of creative destruction, product innovation is a key driver of aggregate growth. In this paper, we confront the predictions of these theories about product dynamics with empirical patterns in product-level data on the near-universe of French manufacturing firms. We find that the process of product innovation frequently exhibits bursts-episodes in which firms rapidly add multiple products to their portfolio. Such bursts lead to substantial shifts in revenue and explain the majority of the variance in firm-level growth. We introduce a model of firm product innovation compatible with such a process that also nests the canonical models of creative destruction. We show that innovation bursts alter the equilibrium composition of age, size, and innovation efficiency of firms, and further explain the concentration of production among superstar firms. Our model thus enables the joint study of the determinants of industry concentration and growth in a setting consistent with the empirical patterns of product dynamics. |
| Keywords: | productivity, endogenous growth, firms, innovation |
| Date: | 2025–04–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2095 |
| By: | YOON , Sang-Ha (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | In today’s digital economy, intangible assets—such as software, R&D, branding, and organizational capital—have emerged as powerful drivers of productivity and long-term economic growth. This report investigates the growing importance of intangible investments across major economies, drawing on data from the EU KLEMS and INTANProd (EKIP) databases. It reveals that intangible capital, particularly in manufacturing, ICT, and financial services sectors, now often exceeds tangible capital in its contribution to value-added, especially in countries like the U.S., U.K., and France. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | R&D; EKIP; digital economy; intangible asset |
| Date: | 2025–05–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:2025_015 |
| By: | Chen, Xiaodong; Lei, Haidong; Wang, Chaowei (Loughborough Business School); Zhou, Peng (Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University) |
| Abstract: | This research aims to investigate the causal relationships among collaborative innovation, R&D human capital, and sustainable innovation, with a focus on the mediating role of R&D human capital. Design/methodology/approach – Using data from Chinese A-share listed companies (2009–2022), we first establish a strong causal link between collaborative innovation and sustainable innovation. We then uncover a masking effect of R&D human capital in this relationship. Grouped and quantile regressions explore how this effect varies by cooperation type, firm size, and industry. Findings – Collaborative innovation promotes sustainable innovation through R&D human capital, although this effect is slightly dampened by a masking mechanism. The positive effect is significant in inter-firm collaborations but not in industry-university partnerships, and it is more pronounced for firms with lower R&D levels. Practical implications – Firms may benefit from HR sharing. Policymakers should support HR integration to improve innovation quality and sustainability. Originality/value – This is the first study to highlight the mediating role of R&D human capital in linking collaborative innovation to sustainability. We show that excessive focus on output quantity may hinder sustainable progress. |
| Keywords: | open innovation; R&D human capital; sustainable innovation; mediation effect; industry-university-research |
| JEL: | O32 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2025/12 |
| By: | Davit Gondauri |
| Abstract: | Today, the economy is greatly influenced by Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The purpose of this paper is to determine the impact of the quantitative relations of AGI on the country's economic parameters. The authors use the analysis of historical data in the research, develop a new mathematical algorithm that refers to the level of AGI development, and conduct a regression analysis. The economic effect of AGI is deduced if it affects the growth of real GDP. As a result of the analysis, it is revealed that there is a positive Pearson correlation between the growth of AGI and real GDP; that is, to increase GDP by 1%, an average increase of 12.5% of AGI is required. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.03156 |
| By: | Philippe Aghion; Antonin Bergeaud; Mathias Dewatripont; Johannes Matt |
| Abstract: | We develop a model of endogenous growth and firm dynamics with soft budget constraints, where firms differ in their innovation speed and slower firms need additional financing in order to eventually innovate. As creditors cannot anticipate refinancing needs in advance nor credibly commit to withholding future refinancing, a Soft Budget Constraint Syndrome emerges, causing excessive entry by slow firms and crowding out potentially more efficient innovators. The resulting trade-off between the positive effects of budget constraint softening on innovation by incumbents and slow-type entrants and its negative effects on entry by fast innovators, generates a hump-shaped relationship between refinancing costs and aggregate growth. Calibrating the model to French firm-level data, we show that the budget constraint softening associated with the decline in interest rates in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis accounts for 54% of the observed drop in the aggregate growth rates post-crisis. Although the softening in budget constraints has had a positive effect on incumbent innovation, this was more than offset by the resulting decrease in the entry rates of good firms (by 61% relative to the pre-crisis steady state). |
| Keywords: | firm dynamics, credit growth, soft budget constraint |
| Date: | 2025–04–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2091 |