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on Economic Growth |
| By: | Bucci, Alberto; Prettner, Klaus |
| Abstract: | Fertility rates have declined dramatically across almost all highincome countries over the past decades. This has raised concerns about future economic prospects. Indeed, fully- and semi-endogenous growth models imply that a shrinking workforce would lead to declining income growth and perhaps even stagnation. We extend the previous analyses to explicitly incorporate an endogenous quantity/quality trade-off between fertility and human capital accumulation. This allows us to assess the extent to which a declining number of workers can be compensated by increasing education. Our analysis demonstrates that economic growth needs not necessarily to decline with a falling population. Under certain conditions, human capital investment can sustain technological progress and economic growth despite the demographic challenges we are facing. |
| Keywords: | Demographic Change, Fertility Decline, Economic Growth, Research and Development, Endogenous Fertility, Endogenous Education, Human Capital Accumulation |
| JEL: | J11 J13 O33 O41 I25 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1585 |
| By: | Stephen Broadberry; Kyoji Fukao; Tokihiko Settsu |
| Abstract: | This paper uses recently revised data on Japanese GDP to analyse the process by which Japan caught-up with the West. The new historical national accounts suggest that Japan was more than one-third richer in 1874 than suggested by Maddison, and that the Meiji period growth built on earlier development. We show that (1) despite trend GDP per capita growth during the Tokugawa shogunate, the catching-up process only started after 1890 with respect to Britain, and after World War 1 with respect to the United States and many European nations (2) although catching up was driven by the dynamic productivity performance of Japanese manufacturing, Japanese success in exporting manufactured goods was just as much driven by limiting the growth of real wages (3) despite claims that Japan was following a distinctive Asian path of labour intensive industrialisation, capital played an important role in the catching-up process. |
| Date: | 2025–02–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_216 |
| By: | Sascha O. Becker; Amma Panin; Steven J. Pfaff; Jared Rubin (Chapman University) |
| Abstract: | This chapter examines the role of religion in economic development, both historically and today. Religion's influence varies globally, with high religiosity in countries like Pakistan and low rates in China. Despite declines in some Western countries, religion remains influential worldwide, with projected growth in Muslim populations due to higher fertility rates. Religion continues to shape societal norms and institutions, such as education and politics, even after its direct influence fades. The chapter explores how religious institutions and norms have impacted economic outcomes, focusing on both persistence and decline. It also examines cultural transmission, institutional entrenchment, networks, and religious competition as mechanisms sustaining religion's influence. We explore the relationship between religion and secularization, showing that economic development does not always reduce religiosity. Lastly, the chapter highlights gaps in the literature and suggests future research areas on the evolving role of religion in economic development. |
| Keywords: | Religion; Economic Development; Religiosity; Cultural Transmission; Secularization; Historical Persistence; Religious Competition; Networks; Social Norms |
| JEL: | D85 I25 J10 N30 O33 O43 P48 Z10 Z12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chu:wpaper:25-01 |
| By: | Becker, Sascha O (University of Warwick); Panin, Amma (UC Louvain); Pfaff, Steven (CWES); Rubin, Jared (Chapman University) |
| Abstract: | This chapter examines the role of religion in economic development, both historically and today. Religion's influence varies globally, with high religiosity in countries like Pakistan and low rates in China. Despite declines in some Western countries, religion remains influential worldwide, with projected growth in Muslim populations due to higher fertility rates. Religion continues to shape societal norms and institutions, such as education and politics, even after its direct influence fades. The chapter explores how religious institutions and norms have impacted economic outcomes, focusing on both persistence and decline. It also examines cultural transmission, institutional entrenchment, networks, and religious competition as mechanisms sustaining religion's influence. We explore the relationship between religion and secularization, showing that economic development does not always reduce religiosity. Lastly, the chapter highlights gaps in the literature and suggests future research areas on the evolving role of religion in economic development |
| Keywords: | Religion ; Economic Development ; Religiosity ; Cultural Transmission ; Secularization ; Historical Persistence ; Religious Competition ; Networks ; Social Norms JEL Codes: D85 ; I25 ; J10 ; N30 ; O33 ; O43 ; P48 ; Z10 ; Z12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1550 |
| By: | Antonio Henriques; K. Kivanc Karaman; Nuno Palma |
| Abstract: | The prevailing view of Europe’s political history is that the rise of constrained governments and the increases in state capacity advanced hand in hand. In this study, we reevaluate this perspective by constructing new historical indices for both. Our findings challenge the presumed connection, illustrating that high-capacity states existed under unconstrained government, and low-capacity states existed under constrained regimes. We also identify what made England historically distinctive: its political system stood out for combining constrained government with high state capacity. This rare combination helps explain the eventual take-off of modern economic growth in England. |
| Keywords: | historical political economy, executive constraints, state capacity, government effectiveness, checks and balances |
| JEL: | H20 N13 O10 O23 P16 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:man:allwps:0010 |
| By: | Fenske, James (University of Warwick); Gupta, Bishnupriya (University of Warwick); Mukhopadhyay, Anwesh (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | We review the present-day impacts of colonial rule on former colonies. Persistence exists because of multiple equilibria, path dependence, institutions, culture, knowledge, and technology. Empirical work in this literature primarily uses tools from applied econometrics, though best practices are needed to overcome the limitations of these tools. Colonial interventions relating to institutions, infrastructure, land, forced labour, the slave trade, and human capital all have measurable impacts in the present. And yet many colonial interventions have failed to persist or have led to reversals. These cases are informative about why colonial rule still matters, as are cases where precolonial influences have had persistent impacts despite, or even because of, colonial rule. |
| Keywords: | JEL Classification: |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:752 |
| By: | Stephen Broadberry; Kyoji Fukao; Hanhui Guan |
| Abstract: | Comparing the major Asian economies of China, India and Japan without taking account of variations in size suggests that the Asian Little Divergence began in the eighteenth century when Japan overtook first India and then China. However, the Great Divergence debate has focused on when the leading regions of the declining countries first fell behind and there was significant regional variation in GDP per capita in all three countries. Allowing for regional variation significantly changes the dating of the Asian Little Divergence: (1) In China, the Yangzi Delta, with a population about the same size as the whole of Japan, did not fall behind until around the time of the Meiji restoration in 1868. (2) In Japan, the Kinai region forged ahead of the Yangzi Delta around 1800. (3) In India, Mysore remained behind the Yangzi Delta throughout the period 1600-1870 and therefore has less significance for the timing of the Asian Little Divergence. |
| Date: | 2025–04–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_219 |