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on Economic Growth |
| By: | Shohei Momoda (Hiroshima University); Takayuki Ogawa (Osaka University); Ryosuke Shimizu (Ehime University) |
| Abstract: | Recent data suggest that countries with a higher accumulation of robots achieve higher economic growth. This study analyzes the international growth patterns in a two-country economy with task-based automation technology. We show that whenever one country can achieve perpetual growth by fully automating all tasks, another country can not. Thus, automation widens the international disparities in output growth. Using panel data covering 62 countries from 1994 to 2019, we empirically find that countries with more industrial robots are associated with higher economic growth through the increased accumulation of robots. |
| Keywords: | Automation; Growth patterns; International trade. |
| JEL: | F43 F62 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kyo:wpaper:1109 |
| By: | Guillaume Blanc |
| Abstract: | This paper draws on a novel dataset crowdsourced from publicly available online genealogies to study demographic change and development in Europe before modern censuses became available. Using millions of publicly available family trees, I reconstruct fertility from horizontal lineages and identify migration to and from urban centers. Then, I systematically compare the data to a range of representative sources in thirty countries and show that selection is limited after the mid-seventeenth century. Finally, I document novel stylized facts on the rural flight, the demographic transition, and the intergenerational persistence of migration, fertility, and longevity; providing suggestive evidence that substantial changes took hold in the eighteenth century, in the early stages of the transition from stagnation to growth. |
| Keywords: | fertility, demography, migration, development |
| JEL: | J10 N33 O10 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:man:allwps:0006 |
| By: | Beatriz Estulano Vieira (University of Brasilia and New School For Social Research); Jorge Thompson Araujo (University of Brasilia and World Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper compares and contrasts Joan Robinson’s theoretical – and “mythical”, in her words – Golden Age with the real-world Golden Age of Capitalism documented in Marglin and Schor (1990). The former provided the analytical backdrop for Robinson’s (1956, 1962) economic growth model based on a two-sided relationship between profits and investment, while the latter was a post-war empirical phenomenon in developed countries characterized by high and stable growth as well as low unemployment. In the mythical Golden Age, full-employment steady-state growth results from a highly stringent set of conditions that are satisfied only accidentally: Namely, the equality over time between the natural, the warranted, and the actual rate of growth of national income. In turn, the real-world Golden Age of Capitalism was born in the context of the welfare state, a robust trade union movement, the commitment to demand management, and international leadership by the USA, within which the macroeconomic structure, the international order, the system of production, and the rules of coordination operated. The paper then argues that Joan Robinson’s economic growth model, with suitable adjustments that preserve the two-way investment-profits relationship, also offers a sound basis for the understanding of the real-world Golden Age. These adjustments are provided by Bhaduri and Marglin (1990) and Marglin and Bhaduri (1990), who allow for idle capacity in the long period and a more realistic investment function. The Bhaduri-Marglin approach provides a coherent and innovative account of real-world Golden Age, while preserving the theoretical core of the Robinsonian growth model. Therefore, this comparison exercise highlights the explanatory power of Joan Robinson’s growth model: While originally designed to show the theoretical limits of economic growth and capital accumulation in a stylized capitalist economy, it also supplied the conceptual basis for an understanding of post-war capitalism in developed countries. |
| Keywords: | Golden Age of capitalism, economic growth, capital accumulation, profit squeeze, conflict inflation |
| JEL: | B15 E62 O23 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:new:wpaper:2415 |
| By: | Gilberto Tadeu Lima; Jaylson Jair da Silveira |
| Abstract: | There is mounting evidence of persistent capture or drainage of government budgetary resources through unlawful means by individuals in the rest of the economy. This paper develops a formal analytical framework in which such persistence arises as a stable evolutionary equilibrium configuration. Also in keeping with the empirical evidence, this evolutionary equilibrium is characterized by behavioral heterogeneity across decision makers who periodically choose whether or not to engage in illegal activities of capture of government resources. A key implication is that the macrodynamics of the capital stock in per capita terms and the per capita income are crucially affected by the frequency of capturing behavior in the economy in a complex way. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth; Solow-Swan model; evolutionary games |
| JEL: | C73 E13 |
| Date: | 2024–12–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spa:wpaper:2024wpecon29 |
| By: | Rasmus Bøgh Holmen; Timo Kuosmanen; Jaan Masso; Per Botolf Maurseth; Kenneth Løvold Rødseth |
| Abstract: | This paper ties broadband development to regional economic growth and focuses on the optimal timing of investments. A Directional Distance Function framework is proposed for characterising the relationship between broadband investment and economic development, and a two-stage estimation procedure combining Convex Nonparametric Least Squares with Linear Programming is developed for estimating optimal investment paths. The model framework is applied to a novel dataset comprising 21 regions in the Baltic countries. The results indicate that Gross Regional Domestic Product could be increased by up to 10 per cent by adopting optimal regional investment paths. We find intercountry differences, where Latvian regions exhibit more inefficient investment strategies compared to regions subordinate to their neighbouring countries. There are also signs of over-investment in broadband in some regions. |
| Keywords: | Regional economic growth; Broadband; Directional Distance Function; Convex Nonparametric Least Squares; Baltic countries; productivity |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtk:febawb:149 |
| By: | Costas Cavounidis; Vittoria Dicandia; Kevin Lang; Raghav Malhotra |
| Abstract: | We present a unified technological explanation of both the movement of workers across jobs using different skills and the changes in skill use within jobs. An envelope-theorem approach allows us to estimate relative skill-productivity growth from worker mobility using OLS while making minimal assumptions on each occupation's production function. Using six decades of data, we conclude that routine-cognitive- and finger-dexterity-skill productivity grew rapidly and abstract- and social-skill productivity grew slowly - a form of "skill bias." These effects, along with our estimated relationships between skill inputs, also explain changes in skill use within occupations. |
| Keywords: | skills; technological change |
| JEL: | J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–11–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:99181 |
| By: | Liping Gao; Hyeongwoo Kim; Jiquan Chen |
| Abstract: | This study proposes an alternative approach to examining the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). Instead of using conventional pollution indicators, we employ gross primary production (GPP) data from the NASA-MODIS dataset as a proxy for environmental quality across 131 countries. By estimating the nonlinear relationship between environmental protection and economic development, we confirm the conventional EKC pattern only in wealthy nations, where environmental quality improves as economies achieve higher levels of prosperity. In less developed countries, however, environmental quality tends to deteriorate further as economic growth accelerates. These results suggest that the EKC may be a localized phenomenon, raising concerns about policy suggestions that prioritize economic growth over environmental protection in less developed regions. |
| Keywords: | Gross Primary Production; NASA-MODIS; Environmental Kuznets Curve; Nonlinearity; Income Groups |
| JEL: | Q0 Q5 O0 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abn:wpaper:auwp2024-08 |
| By: | Hung Tran |
| Abstract: | China and India have become powerful incumbents in the manufacturing-for-exports and services-for-exports sectors, respectively. This has made it difficult for Africa, as a latecomer, to employ similar growth models for its own development. Given current geopolitical tension, its own comparative advantages and urgent needs, modernizing agriculture should be the growth model for Africa. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbagri:pb_54-24 |