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on Economic Growth |
| By: | Horrell, Sara; Humphries, Jane; Weisdorf, Jacob |
| Abstract: | E. A. Wrigley identified the responsiveness of nuptiality and marital fertility to changes in male wages. Others have theorized the importance of women's decision‐making in the timing of marriage, but without much empirical evidence. Combining new long‐run series of annual wages for men, for married and single women, and for children with existing demographic data, the influence of women and children's remuneration on household formation is investigated. Women played a key role in the functioning of early modern preventive checks. High wages encouraged single women to delay marriage, reducing marital fertility. This counterbalanced the encouragement of nuptiality stimulated by high male earnings, which helped balance population and economic growth. Juvenile earnings had little influence on family formation, challenging links suggested in accounts of protoindustrialization or proletarianization. Demographic evidence suggests that economic circumstances contributed to the timing of medieval marriage, but poverty more often than prosperity prompted celibacy. |
| Keywords: | work and pay; Britain; long-run; marriage patterns; fertility decisions; feminist economics |
| JEL: | N33 |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:120527 |
| By: | Vanschoonbeek, Jakob |
| Abstract: | The recent rise and distinct geography of populism highlights the need for high resolution data on the economic and political landscapes and improved spatial political economy models that explain their interrelation. This paper shows that divergent development generates political externalities in lagging regions. To do so, it develops a dynamic spatial political economy model that integrates redistributive taxation and agglomerated economic growth in a standard economic geography framework. It finds that divergent development induces skill-biased labor mobility towards faster growing locations, simultaneously reducing their willingness to pay redistributive taxes and increasing their electoral influence on redistributive policy. To empirically validate and calibrate the model, the Spatial Political Economy in Europe Database (SPEED) is introduced, containing newly georeferenced electoral maps, political party classifications and gridded (per capita) GDP estimates for most European countries in the 17th release of the Constituency-Level Electoral Archive (CLEA). Instrumental variable regressions exploiting geographically-determined differences in economic growth potential confirm a strong constituency-level causal relation between underdevelopment and radical vote shares in the past two centuries. Counterfactual simulations suggests that policies that enhance labor mobility or income redistribution may both increase radical vote shares at least in the short run, as they risk fueling backlash in lagging and leading regions respectively. |
| Keywords: | Economic geography, political economy, political discontent, long-term effects of divergent development, quantitative model, populism, political extremism |
| JEL: | C51 C52 C63 C80 H21 J61 N93 N94 O40 R12 R32 Z18 |
| Date: | 2024–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122310 |
| By: | Ulrich Schetter (University of Pavia, Italy); Maik T. Schneider (University of Graz, Austria); Adrian Jaeggi (SIAW at University of St. Gallen, Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | We examine how inequality and openness interact in shaping the long-run growth prospects of developing countries. To this end, we develop a Schumpeterian growth model with heterogeneous households and non-homothetic preferences for quality. We show that inequality affects growth very differently in an open economy as opposed to a closed economy: If the economy is close to the technological frontier, the positive demand effect of inequality on growth found in closed-economy models may be amplified by international competition. In countries with a larger distance to the technology frontier, however, rich households satisfy their demand for high quality via importing, and the effect of inequality on growth is smaller than in a closed economy and may even be negative. In such case trade can give rise to the endogenous emergence of a 'dual economy' where some domestic sectors are highly innovative while others are not. |
| Keywords: | Distance to frontier, dual economy, Dutch disease, growth, inequality, infant industry protection, non-homothetic preferences, small open economy, trade openness. |
| JEL: | D30 F43 O30 O40 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grz:wpaper:2024-16 |
| By: | Colin Davis; Ken-ichi Hashimoto |
| Abstract: | This paper constructs a two-country model to investigate how tariff policy in- fluences productivity growth through adjustments in industry location patterns. The locations of production and innovation are determined based on trade barriers and imperfect knowledge dissemination. Tariff policy has the effect of attracting firms, reshaping the location of industry, and the productivity of investment in innovation. We show that the relationship between tariff policy and economic growth depends on the industrial share of the country where the policy is implemented. In addition, examining the welfare effects of tariffs, we find that policy trade-offs may generate positive optimal tariff rates. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1259 |
| By: | Corrêa-Dias, Lucas; Norris, Jordan; Pellegrina, Heitor |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of economic development on greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from agriculture. We document the environmental implications of two agricultural transformations linked to economic development. First, a shift in consumer demand to food products with higher GHG emissions. Second, the adoption of modern, input-intensive technologies with high levels of GHG emissions. We incorporate these mechanisms in a quantitative, trade model by featuring different income elasticities of demand across food products, and multiple agricultural technologies for production across grid-cells covering the surface of the Earth, with food products and technologies being heterogeneous in their GHG emission intensity. Using the model's open economy structure, we prove that the income elasticities are identified without price data. We conduct a host of policy counterfactuals related to economic growth, trade policies, and sustainable diets. The GHG emissions from economic growth is understated by more than one third if diet and technology changes are shut down, and overstated by one hundred percent if global food supply readjustments are ignored. |
| Date: | 2024–10–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:3dv4z |
| By: | Lorenzo Incoronato (CSEF–University of Naples Federico II); Salvatore Lattanzio (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies a place-based industrial policy (PBIP) aiming to establish industrial clusters in Italy in the 1960s-70s. Combining historical archives spanning one century with administrative data and leveraging exogenous variation in government intervention, we investigate both the immediate effects of PBIP and its long-term implications for local development. We document agglomeration of workers and firms in the targeted areas persisting well after the end of the policy. By promoting high-technology manufacturing, PBIP favored demand for business services and the emergence of a skilled local workforce. Over time, this produced a spillover from manufacturing – the only sector targeted by the program – to services, especially in knowledge-intensive jobs. Accordingly, we estimate higher local wages, human capital, and house prices in the long run. We provide suggestive evidence that these persistent effects may depend on the initial conditions of targeted locations. |
| Keywords: | place-based industrial policy, employment, wages, agglomeration |
| JEL: | J24 N94 O14 O25 R58 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2419 |
| By: | Imane Bounahr (Faculté des Sciences Juridiques Economiques et Sociales Mohammedia, Université Hassan II de Casablanca); Younes El Khattab (Faculté des Sciences Juridiques Economiques et Sociales Mohammedia, Université Hassan II de Casablanca) |
| Abstract: | This study synthesizes research on the relationship between educational human capital and economic growth. The approach is exclusively theoretical and is based on a review of the existing literature. We limited our selection to the most influential studies, chosen randomly. From this review, we distinguished two main categories of education studies: those focusing on the quantity of education and those examining its quality. This distinction often leads to contradictory results, thereby enhancing the interest of our analysis. The examination of the studies reveals a notable methodological diversity, both in how education is measured and in the econometric specifications of the models. The geographical contexts and studied periods also vary, further complicating the interpretation of the results. The conclusions are mixed: some studies demonstrate a significant positive effect of education on growth, while others do not identify a clear link or even suggest a negative impact. Economists focused on quantity argue that access to education is the main driver of growth. In contrast, those focused on quality contend that growth cannot be sustainable without investing in quality skills, whether cognitive or non-cognitive, as these skills are crucial for innovation and competitiveness in the global market. |
| Abstract: | Cette étude synthétise les recherches portant sur la relation entre le capital humain éducatif et la croissance économique. L'approche adoptée est exclusivement théorique et repose sur une revue de la littérature existante. Nous avons restreint notre sélection aux études les plus influentes, choisies de manière aléatoire. À partir de cette revue, nous avons distingué deux grandes catégories d'études sur l'éducation : celles qui se concentrent sur la quantité d'éducation et celles qui examinent sa qualité. Cette distinction entraîne souvent des résultats contradictoires, renforçant ainsi l'intérêt de notre analyse. L'examen des études révèle une diversité méthodologique notable, tant dans les modes de mesure de l'éducation que dans les spécifications économétriques des modèles. Les contextes géographiques et les périodes étudiées varient également, compliquant davantage l'interprétation des résultats. Les conclusions sont contrastées : certaines études démontrent un effet positif significatif de l'éducation sur la croissance, tandis que d'autres n'identifient pas de lien clair ou suggèrent même un effet négatif. Les économistes axés sur la quantité estiment que l'accès à l'éducation est le principal moteur de la croissance. En revanche, ceux axés sur la qualité soutiennent que la croissance ne peut être durable sans un investissement dans des compétences de qualité, qu'elles soient cognitives ou non cognitives, ces compétences étant cruciales pour l'innovation et la compétitivité sur le marché mondial. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth, human capital, education, endogenous growth theories, literature review, croissance économique, capital humain, éducation, théories de la croissance endogène, revue de la littérature. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04740682 |