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on Economic Growth |
| By: | Depetris-Chauvin, Emilio; Özak, Ömer (Southern Methodist University) |
| Abstract: | We explore the effect of historical ethnic borders on contemporary conflict in Africa. We document that the intensive and extensive margins of contemporary conflict are higher close to historical ethnic borders. Exploiting variations across artificial regions within an ethnicity's historical homeland and a theory-based instrumental variable approach, we find that regions crossed by historical ethnic borders have 27 percentage points higher probability of conflict and 7.9 percentage points higher probability of being the initial location of a conflict. We uncover several key underlying mechanisms: competition for agricultural land, population pressure, cultural similarity, and weak property rights. |
| Date: | 2024–05–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:k76mt&r=gro |
| By: | Alberto Bucci (International Centre for Economic Analysis; Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods, University of Milan, Italy); Lorenzo Carbonari (Dipartimentio di Economia e Finanza, Università degli Studi di Rome “Tor Vergata”, Italy); Giovanni Trovato (ipartimentio di Economia e Finanza, Università degli Studi di Rome “Tor Vergata”, Italy); Pedro Trivin (Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods, University of Milan, Italy) |
| Abstract: | Building on Lucas (1988), we develop a model in which the impact of population dynamics on per capita GDP and human capital depends on the balance of intertemporal altruism effects towards future generations and class-size effects on an individual’s education investment. We show that there is a critical level of the class-size effect that determines whether a decline in population growth will lead to a decrease or an increase in a country’s long-run growth rate of real per capita income. We take the model to OECD data, using a semi-parametric technique. This allows us to classify countries into groups based on their long-term growth trajectories, revealing patterns not captured by previous studies on the topic. |
| Keywords: | Long-run economic growth, Depopulation, Class-size effects, Human capital investment |
| JEL: | J11 O11 O41 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rim:rimwps:24-05&r=gro |
| By: | Yuki Uchida (Faculty of Economics, Seikei University); Tetsuo Ono (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University) |
| Abstract: | Implications of increased life expectancy on parental fertility decisions and subsequent shifts in political influence between younger and older generations carry significant consequences for government policies concerning education and pension. This study introduces an overlapping generations growth model incorporating these effects, qualitatively indicating that increased life expectancy correlates with lower fertility rates, decreased education expenditure-GDP ratio, and increased pension benefit-GDP ratio. A model simulation evaluates the impact of the projected increase in life expectancy until 2100 on four country groups: synthetic rich OECD, synthetic rich OECD Europe, Japan, and the United States. The findings demonstrate similar trends as in the qualitative analysis, yet growth rates are projected to vary significantly across regions and countries due to differing life expectancy increases. |
| Keywords: | Fertility; Public Pension; Public Education; Probabilistic Voting; Overlapping Generations |
| JEL: | D70 E62 H52 H55 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osk:wpaper:2407&r=gro |
| By: | Stefan Raychev (Department of Economic Science, University of Plovdiv Paisii Hilendarski); Blaga Madzhurova (Department of Economic Science, University of Plovdiv Paisii Hilendarski); Dobrinka Stoyanova (Department of Economic Science, University of Plovdiv Paisii Hilendarski) |
| Abstract: | The offered study tackles the problem of whether a country can be synchronously rich and "green". The toolkit applied to resolve this dilemma, on the one hand, involves a review of theoretical sources on the issue, and on the other hand, necessitates a conduct of an empirical study of the dependencies between economic growth, and in particular GDP per capita and carbon dioxide emissions (CO2 ) per capita. This is an assessment method of the eventual impact of economic growth on environmental degradation. An evaluation of the theories indicates that a relationship exists between economic growth and environmental degradation, however it is multidimensional. The outcomes of the in-depth analysis of the relationship between economic prosperity and environmental sustainability, after applying correlation and regression analyses, along with the RANSAC regressor, actually reveal that there is a positive relationship between CO2 emissions and GDP per capita. The visualization of the results gives a clear idea of the relationship for each year of the research period. These findings contribute to the current debate concerning the balance between economic growth and environmental protection. |
| Keywords: | Green transition, GDP per capita, Economic growth, CO2 emissions per capita |
| JEL: | E01 O40 Q01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:14116004&r=gro |
| By: | Jon X. Eguia; Dimitrios Xefteris |
| Abstract: | We introduce a notion of political polarization that takes into account not just the distance between agents’ preferred policies, but also the intensity of this preference. We refer to this notion as “political divide” and we quantify it as the monetary cost, as a share of the total economy, that an agent is willing to incur to attain its ideal policy rather than the policy preferred by another agent. Groups with a large political divide are more likely to fall into affective polarization and political conflict. Holding ideological preferences constant, we show that the link between growth and the political divide between two ideologically separate groups depends on the curvature of the utility over wealth, as measured by the coefficient of relative risk-aversion: if agents’ relative risk aversion is below one, economic growth reduces the political divide; whereas, if agents are very risk-averse, growth increase the divide, exhacerbating political conflict. |
| Keywords: | Polarization, risk-aversion |
| JEL: | D72 H20 E62 |
| Date: | 2024–05–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucy:cypeua:03-2024&r=gro |