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on Economic Growth |
| By: | Thomas Baudin (IESEG School of Management, Univ. Lille, CNRS UMR 9221 - LEM - Lille Economie Management, F-59000 Lille, France and IRES, UCLouvain, Belgium); David de la Croix (IRES/LIDAM, UCLouvain, Belgium and CEPR, Paris) |
| Abstract: | Reflect on the escape from a stagnant or Malthusian system. If this transformation is propelled by human capital, it should be spearheaded by individuals possessing elevated humancapital. To explore this hypothesis, we investigate the connection between family size and human capital among academics in Northern Europe in the two centuries leading up to the Industrial Revolution. We gauge scholars’ human capital using a novel approach based on their publications. We find that scholars with a high number of publications shifted from having more siblings to having fewer than others during the first half of the 18th century. This shift is consistent with an evolutionary growth model in which the initial Malthusian constraint leads the high human capital families to reproduce more, before being endogenously substituted by a Beckerian constraint with a child quality-quantity tradeoff. Our results support an extension of the Galor and Moav (2002)’s approach, in which the decline of Malthusian constraints is linked to human capital accumulation during the 18th century. |
| Keywords: | Universities, Academies, Fertility, Scholars, Human Capital |
| JEL: | N3 J1 O4 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ies:wpaper:e202408&r=gro |
| By: | Ryo Horii |
| Abstract: | Existing endogenous growth theories typically need a knife-edge degree of externality to explain long-term growth. However, micro-level observations do not confirm such an exact degree of externality. This puzzle occurs because sustained growth has been commonly understood as exponential growth in quantity, quality, or variety of outputs. By explicitly considering the movements of price and quantity of individual goods during the product lifecycle, this paper shows that the observed stability of the long-term real GDP growth can be explained under much weaker conditions without relying on the exponential growth of any variable. In particular, we develop a new endogenous growth theory where a constant number (not exponentially many) of new goods are introduced per unit of time. Even without externality, a positive and finite GDP growth rate is maintained when the expenditure for older goods shrinks over time so as not to inhibit the expenditure share given on newer goods. |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1212r&r=gro |
| By: | Oded Galor; Marc Kemp; Daniel C. Wainstock |
| Abstract: | Evidence suggests that the prehistoric out-of-Africa Migration has impacted the degree of intra-population genetic and phenotypic diversity across the globe. This paper provides the first evidence that this migration has shaped cultural diversity. Leveraging a folklore catalogue of 958 oral traditions across the world, we find that ethnic groups further away from East Africa along the migratory routes have lower folkloric diversity. This pattern is consistent with the compression of genetic, phenotypic, and phonemic traits along the out-of-Africa migration routes, setting conditions for the emergence and proliferation of differential cultural diversity and economic development across the world. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bro:econwp:2023-002&r=gro |
| By: | Jose-Miguel Benavente; Claudio Bravo-Ortega; Pablo Egaña-delSol; Bronwyn H. Hall |
| Abstract: | We analyze how expropriation risk reduces incentives for innovation and reallocates resources from the innovative sector, building on Romer’s(1990) model. Our framework predicts the R&D expenditure, the share of human capital in R&D, the number of patents, technical progress, and economic growth are all lower due to lower expected profits and patent devaluation in the presence of expropriation risks. Empirical analyses, based on a LASSO Instrumental Variable approach and a novel comprehensive dataset spanning nearly two decades, confirm our theoretical predictions. We find robust evidence that expropriation risk, such as corruption, negatively impacts innovation by reducing R&D expenditure, human capital in R&D, number of patents, scientific publications, and the Economic Complexity Index, which is our proxy for technical progress. These findings highlight the detrimental effects of expropriation risk on innovation and economic development at the country level. |
| JEL: | O17 O30 O50 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32288&r=gro |
| By: | Minxian Sun (China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics); Heng-fu Zou (The World Bank; Institute for Advanced Study, Wuhan University) |
| Abstract: | Property-rights capital stands as a fragile entity, encountering obstacles, regressions, and challenges worldwide. This underscores the necessity to endogenize both property-rights capital accumulation and physical capital accumulation within an integrated dynamic framework. Through this approach, our paper explores the complex interplay between economic variables and institutional capital, with a specific focus on property-rights capital. It emphasizes the necessity of integrating the accumulation of property-rights capital and physical capital within a dynamic framework to fully grasp their interaction. The study reveals that property-rights capital, serving as institutional capital, is deeply interconnected with the accumulation of physical capital, economic growth, and development. Notably, when the cost of new investments in property-rights capital formation rises, it results in decreased long-run property-rights investment, property-rights capital, physical capital, and consumption. Similarly, an increase in the depreciation rate of property-rights capital leads to reductions in long-run property-rights investments, the accumulation of property-rights capital, physical capital, and consumption. Conversely, an increase in the total factor productivity is associated with higher long-run property-rights investments, accumulation of property-rights capital, physical capital, and consumption. |
| Date: | 2024–04–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:625&r=gro |
| By: | Florentine Schwark; Andreas Tryphonides |
| Abstract: | How does digitalization transform the macroeconomic production function? Within an endogenous technology choice framework, we find that sectors with more digital capital exhibit a higher elasticity of substitution between value-added and intermediate inputs and within value-added, between capital and labor. The shift in the elasticity of substitution is consistent with a higher complementarity of input-specific productivities. We also find that digitalization contributes to Hicks-neutral technical change in value added. Not all types of digital capital have a significant impact on the production function. |
| Keywords: | Digitalization, Elasticity of substitution, Productivity, Endogenous technology choice, Technology frontier |
| JEL: | E23 E25 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–03–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucy:cypeua:02-2024&r=gro |
| By: | Raveh, Ohad; Perez-Sebastian, Fidel; van der Ploeg, Frederick |
| Abstract: | Are technology improvements contractionary? We re-examine this central question, accounting for the presence of natural resources. A two-sector model of economic growth indicates that capital-augmenting technological improvements can be contemporaneously contractionary in resource-rich economies, and expansionary elsewhere, due to differences in the size of the elasticity of substitution between labor and capital. In addition, such improvements yield relatively steeper expansionary patterns in resource-rich economies in the longer run. We test our analytical predictions using a panel of U.S. states and counties. Our identification strategy rests on geographically-entrenched differences in resource endowments, and the adoption of plausibly exogenous technology shocks at the national level. Our core estimates corroborate our predictions. First, we document persistent differences in the elasticity of substitution between labor and capital across the natural resources dimension. Second, we find that an increase in TFP is on impact contractionary in resource-rich states, yet is non-contractionary (at worst) in resource-poor ones. Third, we illustrate that in the longer term a positive technology shock expands output and inputs in resource-rich economies relatively more strongly. Our results shed light on hitherto overlooked potential adverse effects of natural resource abundance. |
| Keywords: | Natural resource abundance, technology shocks, input elasticities |
| JEL: | O33 Q32 |
| Date: | 2024–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120355&r=gro |
| By: | Bakari, Sayef |
| Abstract: | In the context of this study, we aim to assess the impact of domestic investments and carbon dioxide emissions on economic growth in 48 Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 1990-2022. By employing an estimation methodology based on static gravity models (fixed and random effects) as well as the Panel GMM model (fixed and random effects), our results significantly and positively indicate that domestic investments and CO2 emissions influence economic growth. We recommend that policymakers and stakeholders in Sub-Saharan African countries take these findings into consideration when formulating economic policies. The positive and significant implications of domestic investments and CO2 emissions on economic growth underscore the importance of promoting policies that encourage appropriate levels of domestic investment and sustainable management of CO2 emissions. |
| Keywords: | CO2 Emissions, Domestic Investment, Economic Growth, Sub-Saharan African Countries. |
| JEL: | E22 O47 O55 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120370&r=gro |
| By: | Bramoulle, Y.; Goyal, S.; Morelli, M. |
| Abstract: | Most societies in the world contain strong group identities and the culture supporting these groups is highly persistent. This persistence in turn gives rise to a practical problem: how do and should societies with strong group identities organize themselves for exchange and public good provision? In this paper, we develop a theoretical framework – with social structure characterized by number and size of groups as well as quality of ties between them – that allows us to study, normatively and positively, the relationship between social structure, state capacity, and economic activity. |
| Keywords: | Economic Activity, Networks, Social Networks |
| Date: | 2024–03–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2416&r=gro |
| By: | Carolin Nast; Tom Broekel; Doris Entner |
| Abstract: | This study investigated two major trends shaping contemporary technological progress: the growing complexity of innovation and the increasing reliance on government support for private research and development (R&D). We analyzed United States patent data from 1981 to 2016 using structural vector autoregressions and uncovered an indirect interplay between these trends. Our findings showed that government incentives and support played a crucial role in spurring private-sector innovation. This government-fueled innovation, in turn, paved the way for advancements in more intricate and sophisticated technological areas. Our study sheds light on the dual role of the United States' innovation policy over the past four decades; the policy has not only accelerated technological advancement but also steered it toward increasingly complex domains. While this trend presents opportunities for economic growth and technological breakthroughs, it also poses challenges, including the potential for further escalating R&D costs. This research has significant implications for policymakers and industry leaders, suggesting a need for a balanced approach to fostering innovation while considering the long-term economic and technological landscape. |
| Keywords: | Innovation, patents, technological complexity, government R&D |
| JEL: | O31 O33 O38 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2407&r=gro |
| By: | Dincecco, Mark (University of Michigan); Fenske, James (University of Warwick); Gupta, Bishnupriya (University of Warwick); Menon, Anil (University of California) |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between exposure to historical conflict involving heavy weaponry and male-favoring gender norms. We argue that the physical nature of such conflict produced cultural norms favoring males and male offspring. We focus on spatial variation in gender norms across India, a dynamic developing economy in which gender inequality persists. We show robust evidence that areas with high exposure to pre-colonial conflict are significantly more likely to exhibit malefavoring gender norms as measured by male-biased sex ratios and crimes against women. We document how conflict-related gender norms have been transmitted over time via male-favoring folkloric traditions, the gender identity of temple gods, and male-biased marriage practices, and have been transmitted across space by migrants originally from areas with high conflict exposure. |
| Keywords: | War ; Gender Norms ; Cultural Beliefs ; Development ; India, History JEL Codes: J16 ; N45 ; 011 ; P46 ; Z13 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1491&r=gro |