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on Economic Growth |
| By: | Anton Korinek; Donghyun Suh |
| Abstract: | We analyze how output and wages behave under different scenarios for technological progress that may culminate in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), defined as the ability of AI systems to perform all tasks that humans can perform. We assume that human work can be decomposed into atomistic tasks that differ in their complexity. Advances in technology make ever more complex tasks amenable to automation. The effects on wages depend on a race between automation and capital accumulation. If automation proceeds sufficiently slowly, then there is always enough work for humans, and wages may rise forever. By contrast, if the complexity of tasks that humans can perform is bounded and full automation is reached, then wages collapse. But declines may occur even before if large-scale automation outpaces capital accumulation and makes labor too abundant. Automating productivity growth may lead to broad-based gains in the returns to all factors. By contrast, bottlenecks to growth from irreproducible scarce factors may exacerbate the decline in wages. |
| JEL: | E24 J23 J24 O33 O41 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32255&r=gro |
| By: | Grigoriev Leonid (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University) |
| Abstract: | In the actienent worls of different tribes, languagias and slightly cultivated landscapes Empires had a role of the crude tool to forse changes: concentrations of rents, with the focus on infrastructure (roads, dumbs, canals), fortifications, cult centers and palaces. Concentration of investments went to dominationg tribe at the expence of taxes from all nations inside the states. Empires sped up the exchange of information, innovations, common languages. Critical view of empires as aggressive force led to focus on political and military role of empires and low attention economic aspects of their activity. Some coefficient of usefulness between hostile creation and destruction of empires may be of interest. Some technological and cultural developments were resulted from management and the degree of survival after collapses of empires. We distinguish the agricultural and nomadic empires, trying to show the life cycle of empires between XIII Century BC and 5 C. (Fall of Rome), before Christianity and Islam came as a factor. And we observe the process of selection of convenient periods of the past for establishing “imperial” or “contra imperial” cultural codes and historical memory. |
| Keywords: | Adam Smith, Eurasia, empire, trade, development |
| JEL: | F10 N73 N75 P33 P50 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upa:wpaper:0066&r=gro |
| By: | Stelios Michalopoulos; Christopher Rauh |
| Abstract: | Why are certain movies more successful in some markets than others? Are the entertainment products we consume reflective of our core values and beliefs? These questions drive our investigation into the relationship between a society’s oral tradition and the financial success of films. We combine a unique catalog of local tales, myths, and legends around the world with data on international movie screenings and revenues. First, we quantify the similarity between movies’ plots and traditional motifs employing machine learning techniques. Comparing the same movie across different markets, we establish that films that resonate more with local folklore systematically accrue higher revenue and are more likely to be screened. Second, we document analogous patterns within the US. Google Trends data reveal a pronounced interest in markets where ancestral narratives align more closely with a movie’s theme. Third, we delve into the explicit values transmitted by films, concentrating on the depiction of risk and gender roles. Films that promote risk-taking sell more in entrepreneurial societies today, rooted in traditions where characters pursue dangerous tasks successfully. Films portraying women in stereotypical roles continue to find a robust audience in societies with similar gender stereotypes in their folklore and where women today continue being relegated to subordinate positions. These findings underscore the enduring influence of traditional storytelling on entertainment patterns in the 21st century, highlighting a profound connection between movie consumption and deeply ingrained cultural narratives and values. |
| JEL: | N0 O10 P0 Z00 Z1 Z10 Z11 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32220&r=gro |
| By: | Faguet, Jean-Paul; Matajira, Camilo; Sánchez, Fabio |
| Abstract: | The Spanish encomienda, a colonial forced-labour institution that lasted three centuries, killed many indigenous people and caused others to flee into nomadism. What were its long-term effects? We digitize a great deal of historical data from the mid-1500s onwards and reconstruct the Spanish conquerors’ route through Colombia using detailed topographical features to calculate their least-cost path. We show that Colombian municipalities with encomiendas in 1560 enjoy better outcomes today across multiple dimensions of development than those without: higher municipal GDP per capita, tax receipts, and educational attainment; lower infant mortality, poverty, and unsatisfied basic needs; larger populations; and superior fiscal performance and bureaucratic efficiency, but also higher inequality. Why? Two mediation exercises using data on local institutions, populations and racial composition in 1794 shows that encomiendas affected development primarily by helping build the local state. Deep historical evidence fleshes out how encomenderos founded local institutions early on in the places they settled. Places lacking encomiendas also lacked local states for 3-4 centuries. Local institutions mobilized public investment in ways that doubtless suited encomenderos, but, over time, spurred greater economic and human development. |
| Keywords: | Encomienda; Colombia; development; colonialism; extraction; state capacity; forced labour; institutions |
| JEL: | N0 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122257&r=gro |
| By: | Jeong, Minhyeon (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Wongi (Sungshin Women's University) |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the relationship between individualism as a cultural trait and political instability as a political characteristic. The intuition of the analysis is that cultural traits can determine political preferences of members of society. The study considers a specific political belief: “How much should the government protect individual property rights?” which extends to broader political beliefs such as profree market vs. pro-redistribution. According to numerous studies, individualistic cultures tend to support stronger protection of property rights than collectivist cultures. If the degree of protection of property rights is determined by the political choices of the members of society, it can be inferred that the political preferences that lead to strong protection of property rights reflect the individualistic cultures inherent in society members. That is, the political preferences of society members regarding the degree of property rights protection―or, in a broader sense, pro-free market versus pro-redistribution―are influenced by their cultural traits of individualism or collectivism. This study presents a politico-economic model that captures this intuition. The theoretical results are as follows. First, in societies where neither individualism nor collectivism dominates, political preferences for free-market or redistribution contrast more sharply than in societies where individualism or collectivism dominates. Second, this contrast in political preferences leads to political instability, such that societies where neither individualism nor collectivism dominates tend to be more politically unstable. This study provides empirical evidence supporting the theoretical results. This study identifies a relationship between cultural traits, political preferences and political instability, shedding light on the impact of culture on economic growth. In a nutshell, societies with highly heterogeneous cultural traits among their members are prone to polarization of political preferences, leading to political instability, which constrains economic growth in the long run. |
| Keywords: | culture; political instability; institutions; political economy |
| JEL: | E02 O43 |
| Date: | 2023–12–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwp:2023_005&r=gro |
| By: | Naveen Kumar (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics); Dibyendu Maiti (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the long-term impact of climate change on Indian economic growth, both at aggregate and dis-aggregated levels across regions and sectors. A simple Ramsey model is built to show that the resource abundance, climatic exposure, and state capacity affecting the rate of resource mobilisation for productivity and efficiency improvement determine regional growth. A crosssectional augmented auto-regressive distributed lag model (CS-ARDL), addressing endogeneity, heterogeneity, and cross-sectional dependence with stochastic trends, employed in 29 major states from 1980 to 2019, confirms a significant and negative impact of temperature rise on total factor productivity and the resultant economic growth. On average, one Celcius degree of temperature rise has depressed economic growth by approximately 3.89%, with substantial variations across states, sectors, and income groups. The variation in labour relations, industrialisation level, forest cover, and debts across the states affecting the ecological damage and efficiency changes in labour and capital differentially has been found responsible for the variation in TFP and the resultant growth. Our estimated coefficients combined with the projected temperature reveal that poorer and less developed states are expected to be more vulnerable than others because of their dependence on agriculture and ecological resources. The GSDP growth is projected to decrease by a range of 5.25% to 24.51% during 2020 to 2100 from the Stringent Mitigation scenario (SSP1-2.6) to the Business-as-Usual scenario (SSP5-8.5). JEL Code: O44, Q54, Q51 |
| Keywords: | climate change, economic growth, India, panel data, adaptation |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cde:cdewps:345&r=gro |
| By: | Dincecco, Mark (University of Michigan); Fenske, James (University of Warwick); Gupta, Bishnupriya (University of Warwick); Menon, Anil (University of California, Merced) |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between exposure to historical conflict involving heavy weaponry and male-favoring gender norms. We argue that the physical nature of such conflict produced cultural norms favoring males and male offspring. We focus on spatial variation in gender norms across India, a dynamic developing economy in which gender inequality persists. We show robust evidence that areas with high exposure to pre-colonial conflict are significantly more likely to exhibit male-favoring gender norms as measured by male-biased sex ratios and crimes against women. We document how conflict-related gender norms have been transmitted over time via male-favoring folkloric traditions, the gender identity of temple gods, and male-biased marriage practices, and have been transmitted across space by migrants originally from areas with high conflict exposure. |
| Keywords: | War, Gender Norms, Cultural Beliefs, Development, India, History JEL Classification: J16, N45, 011, P46, Z13 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:704&r=gro |