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on Economic Growth |
| By: | Almeida, Derick (University of Coimbra); Naudé, Wim (RWTH Aachen University); Sequeira, Tiago Neves (University of Coimbra) |
| Abstract: | Theory predicts that global economic growth will stagnate and even come to an end due to slower and eventually negative growth in population. It has been claimed, however, that Artificial Intelligence (AI) may counter this and even cause an economic growth explosion. In this paper, we critically analyse this claim. We clarify how AI affects the ideas production function (IPF) and propose three models relating innovation, AI and population: AI as a research-augmenting technology; AI as researcher scale enhancing technology; and AI as a facilitator of innovation. We show, performing model simulations calibrated on USA data, that AI on its own may not be sufficient to accelerate the growth rate of ideas production indefinitely. Overall, our simulations suggests that an economic growth explosion would only be possible under very specific and perhaps unlikely combinations of parameter values. Hence we conclude that it is not imminent. |
| Keywords: | automation, artificial intelligence, economic growth, innovation, ideas production function |
| JEL: | O31 O33 O40 J11 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16766&r=gro |
| By: | Roberto Balado-Naves; David Boto-García; José Francisco Baños-Pino |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a novel theoretical characterization of how tourism services stimulate (deter) economic growth that integrates both Tourism-Led and Beach Disease hypotheses. We build a multisector growth model with the appealing feature that it delivers a linear growth equation that can be easily estimated by practitioners using conventional regression methods. We therefore build a bridge between theory and empirics. Under mild assumptions, we demonstrate theoretically that GDP per capita growth rate depends on the share the tourism sector represents over total GDP, Total Factor Productivity, and other determinants of the steady state of the economy. A testable implication is that a higher specialization in tourism services yields positive GDP per capita growth rates consistent with the Tourism-Led growth hypothesis if and only if the tourism sector is more productive than the rest of the economy. Otherwise, greater tourism specialization results in degrowth paths that are compatible with the Beach Disease. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oeg:wpaper:2024/01&r=gro |
| By: | Burda, Michael C. (Humboldt University Berlin); Zessner-Spitzenberg, Leopold (TU Wien) |
| Abstract: | The existence of an environmental limit in the Solow-Swan economy changes the nature of economic growth, but does not preclude it. When atmospheric greenhouse gases reach a predetermined absolute threshold, further growth requires a permanently expanding, resource-intensive mitigation effort. If the rate of technical progress in mitigation is too low, it becomes the effective constraint on economic growth. Yet growth in both quantities and relative prices remains a robust feature of this class of economies. It also characterizes the social planner's optimum that anticipates the costs of reaching the environmental limit abruptly. |
| Keywords: | Solow-Swan growth model, Baumol cost disease, anthropogenic climate change, mitigation, price-driven economic growth, Ramsey optimal policy |
| JEL: | O44 Q01 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16771&r=gro |
| By: | Nana, Ibrahim; Tabe-Ojong, Martin Paul Jr. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats22:339408&r=gro |
| By: | Sithole, Mixo Sweetness; Hlongwane, Nyiko Worship |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to analyse how the BRICS countries' New Development Bank (NDB) promotes economic growth and development. This study aims to evaluate the influence of the NDB on crucial measures of economic growth and development in the BRICS nations by a thorough review of the bank's operations, financing mechanisms, and project portfolios. The study utilized the panel data from 1997-2022 using variables such as economic growth, employment, and trade. The study deployed a PMG estimator and Granger causality model. The results revealed positive bidirectional statistically significant relationship between broad money and economic growth in BRICS. The study recommended that NDB should promote growth of broad money as it boosts economic growth. |
| Keywords: | New Development Bank, Economic growth, BRICS, Pooled Mean Group estimator, Granger causality. |
| JEL: | C0 C3 |
| Date: | 2023–07–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119958&r=gro |
| By: | Lin, Fan; Xie, Danyang |
| Abstract: | We analyze China's economic growth and climate change relationship using a dynamic equilibrium model with regional disparity. Our simulation findings suggest that without intervention, China's temperatures could rise to 4.7◦C and 3.4◦C in advanced and backward regions, respectively, by mid-next century. A social planner path could limit this rise to 3.3◦C across both regions, yielding welfare benefits. However, if China adheres to the Paris Agreement's 2◦C limit without exceptional low-carbon technology advancements, significant social welfare losses could occur. |
| Keywords: | Economic Development, Climate Change, China |
| JEL: | E27 E61 Q54 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119970&r=gro |
| By: | Leonard Mushunje; Maxwell Mashasha |
| Abstract: | This paper uses nighttime light(NTL) data to measure the nexus of the non-banking sector, particularly insurance, and economic growth in South Africa. We hypothesize that insurance sector growth positively propels economic growth due to its economic growth-supportive traits like investment protection and optimal risk mitigation. We also claim that Nighttime light data is a good economic measure than Gross domestic product (GDP). We used weighted regressions to measure the relationships between nighttime light data, GDP, and insurance sector development. We used time series South African GDP data collected from the World Bank for the period running from 2000 to 2018, and the nighttime lights data from the National Geophysical Data Centre (NGDC) in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). From the models fitted and the reported BIC, AIC, and likelihood ratios, the insurance sector proved to have more predictive power on economic development in South Africa, and radiance light explained economic growth better than GDP and GDP/Capita. We concluded that nighttime data is a good proxy for economic growth than GDP/Capita in emerging economies like South Africa, where secondary data needs to be more robust and sometimes inflated. The findings will guide researchers and policymakers on what drives economic development and what policies to put in place. It would be interesting to extend the current study to other sectors such as micro-finances, mutual and hedge funds. |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2401.08596&r=gro |
| By: | Hoang, Trung Xuan; Nguyen, Cuong Viet |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the long-term effect of the density of the elite - the highest educated - during the period 1075-1919 on today's educational attainment and economic performance in Vietnam. Using nearly 20, 000 elites, including 17, 061 junior bachelors and bachelors, and 2, 895 doctors who passed the imperial examination (1075-1919), and the distance to the nearest examination centers as an instrumental variable, we find that elite density has persistent effects on the present-day educational attainment, income, poverty, and night-time light intensity. The impact of the elite density on schooling years tends to be higher in urban areas than in rural areas. Our findings are robust to a variety of model specifications. |
| Keywords: | Human capital, historical legacy, economic growth, household income |
| JEL: | I25 O12 E24 N35 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1389&r=gro |
| By: | Perilla Jiménez, Juan Ricardo (Fundación Universidad del Norte) |
| Abstract: | The role of productivity measurement in the assessment of the decoupling hypothesis–which suggests divergent paths between productivity and the labor income share–is investigated using a detailed dataset on quality-adjusted-production-factors across economic sectors in the Colombian economy over 1990-2019. The quality adjustment is found to increase the contribution of production factors, and to attenuate the contribution of productivity to value added growth. Cointegration relationships between alternative productivity indicators and the labor share do not hold at the aggregate level. But they hold for a number of industries. Short-run robust negative relationships arise for all sectors. But comparison between alternative measures of productivity leads to conclude that quality adjusted measures of productivity has the potential to improve model specification on the econometric assessment of the decoupling effect. |
| Keywords: | Productivity; growth accounting; time series cointegration; panel data |
| JEL: | O22 O23 O40 O47 O57 |
| Date: | 2023–05–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000383:000053&r=gro |