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on Economic Growth |
| By: | Antonin Bergeaud; Cyril Verluise |
| Abstract: | Innovation is an important driver of potential growth but quantitative evidence on the dynamics of innovative activities in the long-run are hardly documented due to the lack of data, especially in Europe. In this paper, we introduce PatentCity, a novel dataset on the location and nature of patentees from the 19th century using information derived from an automated extraction of relevant information from patent documents published by the German, French, British and US Intellectual Property offices. This dataset has been constructed with the view of facilitating the exploration of the geography of innovation and includes additional information on citizenship and occupation of inventors |
| Keywords: | history of innovation, patent, text as data |
| Date: | 2022–04–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:poidwp:033&r=gro |
| By: | Stephen Broadberry (Nuffield College, Oxford); Jason Lennard (London School of Economics (LSE)) |
| Abstract: | The modern business cycle features long expansions combined with short recessions, and is thus related to the emergence of sustained economic growth. It also features significant international co-movement, and is therefore associated with growing market integration and globalisation. When did these patterns first appear? This paper explores the changing nature of the business cycle using historical national accounts for nine European economies between 1300 and 2000. For the sample as a whole, the modern business cycle emerged at the end of the eighteenth century. |
| Keywords: | Business cycle, economic growth, Europe |
| JEL: | N10 E32 O47 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfm:wpaper:2323&r=gro |
| By: | Miguel Leon-Ledesma; Katsuyuki Shibayama |
| Abstract: | We develop a model where temporary non-technology shocks can lead to permanent changes in the rate of growth of total factor productivity (TFP). The key ingredient of the model is a matching processes between basic researchers, product developers, and the stock of knowledge of the economy. In this context, search externalities generate vicious and virtuous cycles in R&D. The model has a unique equilibrium path but multiple balanced growth paths (BGPs) with different growth rates. After a deep or long-lived shock, the economy can transit between these BGPs, generating 'super-hysteresis' in TFP. We calibrate the model in the context of the Japanese growth slowdown and show that, quantitatively, it can explain well the TFP growth decline after the financial crisis in the 1990s. The simultaneous occurrence of demographic shocks and a persistent but temporary financial crisis gave rise to a 'wretched coincidence' resulting in the growth slowdown. |
| Keywords: | Growth slowdowns; permanent effects of recessions; research and development; super-hysteresis |
| JEL: | O40 O49 E32 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:2303&r=gro |
| By: | Charles I. Jones |
| Abstract: | Advances in artificial intelligence (A.I.) are a double-edged sword. On the one hand, they may increase economic growth as A.I. augments our ability to innovate. On the other hand, many experts worry that these advances entail existential risk: creating a superintelligence misaligned with human values could lead to catastrophic outcomes, even possibly human extinction. This paper considers the optimal use of A.I. technology in the presence of these opportunities and risks. Under what conditions should we continue the rapid progress of A.I. and under what conditions should we stop? |
| JEL: | J17 O40 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31837&r=gro |
| By: | K. Pun Winichakul; Ning Zhang |
| Abstract: | To what extent have immigrants contributed to the growth of the United States arts sector? In this paper, we explore the impact of immigration during the Age of Mass Migration on the development of the arts in the U.S. over the past century. In the short run, our results suggest that immigration helped produce greater numbers of native artists. Over a century later, the bene fits to the arts persist. Counties with greater historical immigration house more arts businesses and nonprofit organizations that generate more revenue, employ a larger proportion of the community, and earn more federal arts grants. When considering potential mechanisms, our analysis suggests that greater interaction between the aggregate immigrant population and natives led to increased exposure to new arts experiences and ideas, creating arts markets that persisted in the long run. This channel is further supported by positive links between the presence of immigrants from certain countries of origin and the growth of art forms popular in those countries, and evidence of long-run benefits to the arts that cannot be attributed to higher income in a causal mediation analysis. Altogether, our results highlight the important role that immigrants played in the development of the arts in America. |
| Date: | 2022–12–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:993&r=gro |
| By: | Naveen Kumar (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics); Dibyendu Maiti (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Emerging economies (EMEs) often ignore effective mitigation strategies for climate risks to prioritise growth acceleration. This paper shows that EMEs cannot sustain their economic growth trajectory due to the adverse impact of climate change on total factor productivity (TFP). Using a standard growth model, it demonstrates how temperature rise and variation from growing industrial emissions reduce capital productivity along with the damage to ecosystem services and labour productivity, adversely impacting total factor productivity (TFP). A cross-sectional augmented auto-regressive distributed lag model (CS-ARDL), which addresses the issues of endogeneity and cross-sectional dependence with stochastic trends, has been applied to 21 EMEs over the period from 1990 to 2018 and reveals a strong negative impact of temperature rise on total factor productivity. Although EMEs have heterogeneous impacts across the countries depending upon their climatic zones and income levels, a one-degree increase in temperature, on average, decreases the TFP by approximately 3 per cent. It is much higher in the extreme climatic zones and less developed EMEs. JEL Code: O47, Q50, O44 |
| Keywords: | TFP, Temperature Shocks, Panel CS-ARDL, Emerging markets |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cde:cdewps:342&r=gro |
| By: | Falk, Marcus (Department of Economic History, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents new estimates of the material livings standards among the rural population in southern Sweden from the 1680’s up to 1865. Utilizing a newly constructed database of circa 1800 probate inventories from the benchmark periods 1680-1720, 1780-85, and 1860-65, we analyse the development of consumption patterns for rural households. We find that that all rural households, no matter their socio-economic status, diversified their composition of consumption goods with a special focus towards increased comfort, rather than household reproduction, during the second half of the eighteenth century. The most visible change was in the diversification of cooking- and dining-ware, which corresponds to a contemporary rebuilding of peasant homes to include purpose-built kitchens. This diversification and increase in comfortable consumption furthermore correspond with a diversification of household production strategies during a period of stagnant, of even decreasing, economic growth before the Swedish economic catch-up of the nineteenth century. This suggests that changes in consumption during the period were a conscious decision, likely made possible by increasing access to credit and inter-regional markets. |
| Keywords: | Early modern history; Early modern Sweden; Material history; Consumption; Industrious Revolution |
| JEL: | N33 |
| Date: | 2023–10–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:luekhi:0254&r=gro |