nep-gro New Economics Papers
on Economic Growth
Issue of 2023‒08‒21
seven papers chosen by
Marc Klemp, University of Copenhagen

  1. Moonshot: Public R&D and Growth By Shawn Kantor; Alexander T. Whalley
  2. A reconstruction of the time series of global technology from 5500 BC to the 2000s By Antonio Paradiso
  3. Long-term Economic Implications of Demeny. Voting: A Theoretical Analysis By Luigi Bonatti; Mauro Lorenza Alexandra Lorenzetti
  4. The Impact of Domestic Investment and Trade on Economic Growth in North Africa Countries: New Evidence from Panel CS-ARDL Model By Ben Yedder, Nadia; El Weriemmi, Malek; Bakari, Sayef
  5. Dynamics of temperatures and economic activity in Italy: a long-term analysis By Michele Brunetti; Matteo Gomellini; Paolo Croce; paolo Piselli
  6. A Gender Analysis of the Impact of Human Capital Development on Economic Growth in Nigeria By Chibuzor Happinessobi
  7. The Predictive Impact of Climate Risk on Total Factor Productivity Growth: 1880-2020 By Desiree M. Kunene; Renee van Eyden; Petre Caraiani; Rangan Gupta

  1. By: Shawn Kantor; Alexander T. Whalley
    Abstract: We estimate the long-term effect of public R&D on growth in manufacturing by analyzing new data from the Cold War era Space Race. We develop a novel empirical strategy that leverages US-Soviet rivalry in space technology to isolate windfall R&D spending. Our results demonstrate that public R&D conducted by NASA contractors increased manufacturing value added, employment, and capital accumulation in space related sectors. While migration responses were important, they were not sufficient to generate a wedge between local and national effects. The iconic Moonshot R&D program had meaningful economic effects for both the local and national space related sectors. Yet the magnitudes of the estimated effects seem to align with those of other non-R&D types of government expenditures.
    JEL: H54 N12 N72 O32 R11
    Date: 2023–07
  2. By: Antonio Paradiso (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Ca' Foscari)
    Abstract: The aim of this study is to reconstruct the millennial historical series of global technology level from 5000 BC to the twenty-first century, using the data collected by Lilley [Men, machines and history, Cobbett Press, London, 1948] and updating them. The resulting series reveals a similar dynamic to the millennial series of global real GDP per capita. This finding is supported by structural changes in the growth dynamics of both series during the period of proto-industrialization and by the results of estimations from an unobserved components model, which highlight the effect of technology on global output. This study contributes to understanding the link between technology and economic development over the course of millennia.
    Keywords: Technology, GDP per capita, economic growth, regression with breaks, unobserved components model
    JEL: O40 N70 C20 C32
    Date: 2023
  3. By: Luigi Bonatti; Mauro Lorenza Alexandra Lorenzetti
    Abstract: This paper places itself at the intersection between the literature on “Demeny voting†(the proposal of letting custodial parents exercise their children’s voting rights until they come of age) and the vast literature on formal models with endogenous fertility that address the problem of fiscal redistribution between young and old cohorts in the presence of an aging population. Linking these issues to the process of economic growth through a simple overlapping generations model, we show that, even if the government is myopic, in the sense that it cares only about the current well being of the living (and voting) generations, an increase in the relative importance that it attaches to the interests of the young cohort (for instance, due the introduction of Demeny voting) leads in the long run to a higher population growth rate and raises the consumption level of each young adult, the capital stock per worker and the output per adult. We also show that in the long run such a reform raises the well being that individuals can expect at birth to achieve during their lifetime.
    Keywords: OLG model, fertility, fiscal redistribution, well being, child allowances
    JEL: D10 D72 H23 J13 O41
    Date: 2022
  4. By: Ben Yedder, Nadia; El Weriemmi, Malek; Bakari, Sayef
    Abstract: The aim of this work is to examine the impact of domestic investment and trade on economic growth in the case of North Africa countries during the period 1990 – 2021 by using Panel CS-ARDL Model. Empirical results indicate that domestic investment and exports don’t have any impact on economic growth in the long run. However, we found that the impact of imports is positive in the long run. These results show that exports and national investments are not considered as a source of economic growth in the country of North Africa over this extended period and suffer from a miserable economic organization and many problems in terms of political and economic instabilities.
    Keywords: Domestic Investment, Exports, Imports, Economic Growth, North Africa Countries, CS-ARDL Model.
    JEL: E22 F11 F14 O10 O16 O40 O47 O55
    Date: 2023–07
  5. By: Michele Brunetti (Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, CNR-ISAC); Matteo Gomellini (Bank of Italy); Paolo Croce (Bank of Italy); paolo Piselli (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: This paper reconstructs the dynamics of temperatures at the provincial level in Italy since the end of the 19th century and estimates their effects on the economy. The analysis spans a long period of time using ten-year average data that allow us to appreciate the impact of the temperature increases that can be attributed to changes in climate rather than to short-term meteorological variability. We find that average temperatures in Italy have increased by about 2°C since the beginning of the twentieth century with homogeneous growth trends across regions. The estimates of the relationship between economic growth and temperatures are made using two different empirical methodologies (panel data and autoregressive distributed lags, ARDL) and show how global warming has had negative repercussions on the Italian economy that became more pronounced at the end of twentieth century. These estimates are used to assess the potential impacts of future temperature increases. More specifically, based on our analysis, further increases that would bring average temperatures in 2100 to +1.5°C higher than today (a scenario corresponding to 'intermediate' greenhouse gas emissions) would reduce economic growth, leading to a level of per capita GDP between 2.8 and 9.5 per cent lower than under a +2 per cent growth scenario (i.e. the pace recorded since the beginning of the twentieth century).
    Keywords: climate change, economic growth, long run
    JEL: N00 O44 Q54
    Date: 2023–07
  6. By: Chibuzor Happinessobi (Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria)
    Abstract: This study analysed the impact of education human capital development on economic growth in Nigeria from 1980 to 2020. The study specifically used secondary school enrolment as a comprehensive measure of education human capital, while life expectancy at birth was used as a measure of health human capital. By employing annual secondary time series data, the research aimed to assess the relationship between education human capital and economic growth in Nigeria. The data, obtained from the World Development Indicators of the World Bank, were subjected to appropriate descriptive and econometric techniques, including the Autoregressive Distributive Lag method. The findings revealed a significant positive correlation between education human capital development, as measured by secondary school enrolment, and economic growth in Nigeria. Therefore, the study recommends that government expenditures be directed towards human capital development, with a particular emphasis on education, to promote increased, sustainable, and equitable economic growth. In summary, this research highlights the importance of gender analysis in understanding the effects of human capital developments on economic growth in Nigeria. By recognizing the specific impact of education and health on economic growth, policymakers can make informed decisions to foster sustainable economic development.
    Keywords: Development; Economic growth; Gender; Human capital; Investment
    Date: 2023–07
  7. By: Desiree M. Kunene (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Renee van Eyden (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Petre Caraiani (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Romania; Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa)
    Abstract: In this study, we investigate the predictive impact of climate risk (as measured by average temperature changes and temperature realised volatility) on total factor productivity (TFP) growth in 23 economies over the period 1880 to 2020 while controlling for real GDP per capita growth. Standard full-sample Granger causality tests offer little evidence of a causal impact of climate change on productivity outcomes. This may be attributed to nonlinearity and structural breaks in the relationship between climate risk and TFP growth, as evidenced by the BDS (1996) test results for nonlinearity and the Bai-Perron (1998, 2003) multiple breakpoint test results. Furthermore, Rossi-Wang (2019) time-varying VAR-based Granger causality tests, which are robust in the presence of instabilities and structural changes, indicate that for a large number of countries, we observe a significant causal impact of climate change on TFP growth in the post-World War II period, with increased significance in the causal impact for the majority of countries in the post-1980 period.
    Keywords: Total factor productivity growth, climate change, temperature realised volatility, average temperature change, time-varying Granger causality
    JEL: Q54 E23 C32
    Date: 2023–07

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