nep-gro New Economics Papers
on Economic Growth
Issue of 2023‒07‒10
nine papers chosen by
Marc Klemp
University of Copenhagen

  1. The Impact of the Prehistoric Out of Africa Migration on Cultural Diversity By Oded Galor; Marc Klemp; Daniel C. Wainstock
  2. Extension of Endogenous Growth Theory: Artificial Intelligence as a Self-Learning Entity By Julia M. Puaschunder
  3. Optimal Schooling for Economic Growth By Kazuyuki SASAKURA
  4. Overlapping-Generations Economies under Uncertainty: Dynamic Inefficiency/Efficiency with Multiple Assets and no Labour By Martin F. Hellwig
  5. Band-Pass Filtering with High-Dimensional Time Series By Alessandro Giovannelli; Marco Lippi; Tommaso Proietti
  6. The Contribution of Reallocation to U.S. GDP Growth: Measurement Using Tiered Aggregation By Jon D. Samuels; Mun S. Ho
  7. Macroeconomics with a Thick Pen By Marc Gronwald; Xin Jin
  8. The Impact of Railway Development on Economic Growth through CPEC By Abida Naurin; Shahbaz Gul
  9. Neo-Confucian Ethics and Economic Development in East Asia: From the Perspective of Confucian Modernity and Political Democracy By Yuxin Zhang

  1. By: Oded Galor; Marc Klemp; Daniel C. Wainstock
    Abstract: Evidence suggests that the prehistoric Out of Africa Migration has impacted the degree of intra-population genetic and phenotypic diversity across the globe. This paper provides the first evidence that this migration has shaped cultural diversity. Leveraging a folklore catalogue of 958 oral traditions across the world, we find that ethnic groups further away from East Africa along the migratory routes have lower folkloric diversity. This pattern is consistent with the compression of genetic, phenotypic, and phonemic traits along the Out of Africa migration routes, setting conditions for the emergence and proliferation of differential cultural diversity and economic development across the world.
    JEL: N0 O10 O40 Z10
    Date: 2023–05
  2. By: Julia M. Puaschunder (The New School, New York, USA)
    Abstract: The Artificial Intelligence (AI) evolution is a broad set of methods, algorithms, and technologies making software human-like intelligent that is encroaching our contemporary workplace. Thinking like humans but acting rational is the primary goal of AI innovations. The current market disruption with AI lies at the core of the IT-enhanced economic growth driven by algorithms – for instance enabled via the sharing economies and big data information gains, self-check outs, online purchases and bookings, medical services social care, law, retail, logistics and finance to name a few domains in which AI leads to productivity enhancement. While we have ample account of AI entering our everyday lives, we hardly have any information about economic growth driven by AI. Preliminary studies found a negative relation between digitalization and economic growth, indicating that we lack a proper growth theory capturing the economic value imbued in AI. We also have information that indicates AI-led growth based on ICT technologies may widen an inequality-rising skilled versus unskilled labor wage gap. This paper makes the theoretical case of AI as a self-learning entity to be integrated into endogenous growth theory, which gives credit to learning and knowledge transformation as vital economic productivity ingredients. Future research may empirically validate the claim that AI as a self-learning entity is a driver of endogenous growth. All these endeavors may prepare for research on how to enhance human welfare with AI-induced growth based on inclusive AI-human compatibility and mutual exchange between machines and human beings.
    Keywords: Algorithms, Artificial Intelligence (AI), Digitalization, Digitalization disruption, Digital inequality, Economic growth, Endogenous growth
    Date: 2022–10
  3. By: Kazuyuki SASAKURA (Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University)
    Abstract: It goes without saying that education matters to promote economic growth. To examine the importance of education or schooling in economic growth, the Uzawa-Lucas model is the most popular in economics. It regards the accumulation of human capital through schooling (i.e., going to school) as the engine of economic growth. The current paper uses a generalized version of the Uzawa-Lucas model and studies the relationship between schooling-related parameters and economic growth. It is concluded that the growth rate of a macroeconomy becomes higher if workers become more patient, population grows faster, the rate of human capital depreciation becomes smaller, or the potentially maximum growth rate of human capital becomes bigger. These results may be expected intuitively. But the effect of the schooling-time elasticity of the growth rate of human capital (i.e., the exponent of the learning function) is not clear. It is shown that it depends on some conditions on schooling time.
    Keywords: Education; Schooling; Economic Growth; Generalized Uzawa-Lucas Model
    Date: 2023–06
  4. By: Martin F. Hellwig (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Bonn)
    Abstract: The paper gives conditions for efficiency and inefficiency of equilibrium allocations in an overlapping-generations model with a constant rate of population growth and with multiple assets, but without labour. Optimal portfolio choice implies that, for any period and history up to that period, the conditional certainty equivalents of the one-period-ahead marginal rates of return must be the same for all assets that are held in positive amounts. The efficiency or inefficiency of equilibrium allocations depends on whether this common conditional certainty equivalent of returns on assets is larger or smaller than the population growth rate. If the growth rate is uncertain, the standard of comparison is the certainty equivalent of the population growth rate when interpreted as a marginal rate of return on an asset.
    Keywords: Dynamic Inefficiency, overlapping-generations models, First Welfare Theorem, certainty-equivalents criterion
    JEL: D15 D61 E21 E22 E62 H30
    Date: 2023–05
  5. By: Alessandro Giovannelli (University of L’Aquila); Marco Lippi (EIEF); Tommaso Proietti (CEIS & DEF, University of Rome "Tor Vergata")
    Abstract: The paper deals with the construction of a synthetic indicator of economic growth, obtained by projecting a quarterly measure of aggregate economic activity, namely gross domestic product (GDP), into the space spanned by a finite number of smooth principal components, representative of the medium-to-long-run component of economic growth of a high-dimensional time series, available at the monthly frequency. The smooth principal components result from applying a cross-sectional filter distilling the low-pass component of growth in real time. The outcome of the projection is a monthly nowcast of the medium-to-long-run component of GDP growth. After discussing the theoretical properties of the indicator, we deal with the assessment of its reliability and predictive validity with reference to a panel of macroeconomic U.S. time series.
    Keywords: Nowcasting, Principal Components Analysis, Macroeconomic Indicators
    JEL: C22 C52 C58
    Date: 2023–06–15
  6. By: Jon D. Samuels; Mun S. Ho (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
    Abstract: Resources moving from less productive to more productive sectors can increase aggregate output without any underlying change in production technology, yet the impact of these reallocations is challenging to measure because it involves measuring unobserved counterfactual production where resources have not moved. We construct measures of counterfactual production by implementing an Industry-Level Production Account with a tiers structure. Aggregate gross domestic product (GDP) and total factor productivity growth constructed bottom-up from the micro- (industry) level captures the true data-generating process for the sources of growth. The counterfactual accounts employ restrictions that impose a constraint that reallocating outputs and inputs have no impact on aggregate production, so that the difference between the two measures captures the economic impact of reallocations. We find that reallocations contributed 0.30 percent per year on average out of total GDP growth of 2.39 percent per year from 1987–2018. Almost all of this can be accounted for as reallocations of value added within manufacturing (for example, to the computer producing sector from other manufacturing sectors) and across sectors to the information and trade sectors.
    JEL: E01
    Date: 2021–10
  7. By: Marc Gronwald; Xin Jin
    Abstract: This paper introduces two co-movement measures based on the Thick Pen Transform into the macroeconomic literature: the Thick Pen Measure of Association (TPMA) as well as Multi-Thickness Thick Pen Measure of Association (MTTPMA). Both measures are non-parametric, time-varying, and flexible. These methods are used to analyse the co-movement of, first, US long- and short-term interest rates, and, second, growth rates of per capita GDP and consumption. As methodological benchmark, this paper also applies the recently pro-posed measure of long-run covariability. The paper finds, first, the co-movement of all series to be stronger the more long-term the components of the time series are. Second, the co-movement of GDP and consumption growth rates is not only generally higher, it also fluctuates considerably less over time than that of the interest rates. Third, the co-movement of the interest rates is sensitive to choosing how long-term the components are. This is attributable to the different extents to which the interest rates exhibit cyclical behaviour. The benchmark method confirms this pattern of the results.
    Keywords: co-movement, macroeconomics, Thick Pen, covariability
    JEL: C14 E30 G15
    Date: 2023
  8. By: Abida Naurin (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics); Shahbaz Gul (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics)
    Abstract: Transportation is one of the key ingredients used to enhance economic development. An effective railway system is essential to enhance trade and rural development and helps reduce transportation costs. One of the main objectives of CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) is to improve transportation facilities in Pakistan, with US $8.6 billion allocated for improving Pakistan Railways (PR), indicating that a robust railway network is an essential pillar of CPEC. The current study aims to introduce railways as an industry and highlight the importance of PR in CPEC and the importance of its Gross Earning (GE) and Human Development Index (HDI) impact on economic growth from 1981 to 2019. The study also utilises the World Development Indicator, the Ministry of Railways, and the Economic Survey of Pakistan for time-series data. To make an empirical analysis, the study uses Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to forecast better-developed railway infrastructure with economic growth.
    Keywords: Railway Development, Economic Growth, CPEC
    Date: 2023
  9. By: Yuxin Zhang (Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China)
    Abstract: It is a theoretical and practical difficulty to re-examine the relationship between Confucianism and modernization in the era of "cultural globalization" and "postmodern". This study claims that the connection between Confucianism and modernization is determined by the continuity of social development and the historical inheritance of culture, based on the historical perspective and the enlightenment spirit of Confucianism. Even at the start of East Asia's modernization, Confucianism's Tradition never entirely faded from history, and Confucianism's involvement in the transformation of East Asian countries from tradition to modernity is obvious. From East Asia's authoritarian politics to Asian-style democracy, East Asia's political democracy is a shadow of Confucianism rather than a carbon duplicate of Western democracy. The new Confucian ethics has its own logic, emphasizing the importance of the self in all sorts of relationships, as well as the sense of obligation, self-control, self-cultivation, consensus, and cooperation. It places a great importance on politeness and education. Therefore, this paper presents the close relationship between the Neo-Confucian Ethics and the rise of Asia from the perspective of the modernity of the Confucian tradition in East Asia and Asian political democracy. Neo-Confucian Ethics has shaped Asia's industrial civilization, and Asia's economic development is consistent with the philosophical theory inherent in Confucian ethics.
    Keywords: Confucian, Rise of East Asia, Neo-Confucian Ethics, East Asian Politics, Economic Development
    Date: 2022–10

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