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on Economic Growth |
| By: | Arnaud Deseau (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)) |
| Abstract: | Standard Malthusian models predict that a productivity or population shock modify income per capita in the short run. In the long run, however, population pressures make income per capita gradually come back to its steady state. I investigate the duration of this short-run fluctuation, estimating the speed of convergence of Malthusian economies to their GDP per capita and population steady-states. To do so, I first build and calibrate a Malthusian model capturing explicitly the idea that marriages are postponed (advanced) and fertility potential of couples reduced (augmented) during depressions (expansions). I then also run β-convergence regressions on historical panel data. I find consistent evidence of weak homeostasis, with a half-life of about one century. It implies that early modern data may display high persistence without necessarily rejecting the Malthusian hypothesis. |
| Keywords: | Convergence, Homeostasis, Malthusian dynamics, Preventive check, Marriage, Fertility, Malthusian model, β -convergence |
| JEL: | N10 N13 N33 O10 O47 |
| Date: | 2023–03–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2023010&r=gro |
| By: | Piergiorgio Alessandri (Bank of Italy); Haroon Mumtaz (Queen Mary University of London) |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of climate volatility on economic growth exploiting data on 133 countries between 1960 and 2005. We show that the conditional (extante) volatility of annual temperatures increased steadily over time, rendering climate conditions less predictable across countries, with important implications for growth. Controlling for concomitant changes in temperatures, a +1oC increase in temperature volatility causes on average a 0.9 per cent decline in GDP growth and a 1.3 per cent increase in the volatility of GDP. Unlike changes in average temperatures, changes in temperature volatility affect both rich and poor countries. |
| Keywords: | temperature volatility; economic growth; panel VAR |
| JEL: | C32 E32 F34 |
| Date: | 2021–07–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:928&r=gro |
| By: | Jere Lehtomaa (Center of Economic Research, ETH Zurich, Zurichbergstrasse 18, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland); Clément Renoir (Center of Economic Research, ETH Zurich, Zurichbergstrasse 18, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | We present a new framework for estimating the long-run economic impacts of natural disasters. Our approach combines a disaster impact model with a general equilibrium model of the economy. We apply the methodology to study the effects of tropical cyclones in the United States, the Caribbean islands, Japan, China, and the Philippines. Our results show that the post-disaster recovery after a single shock can take several decades, with notable cumulative negative effects for frequently affected regions. For instance, cyclone activity reduces long-run aggregate consumption between 0.3 - 22 %, depending on the region. To evaluate the robustness of our results, we extend the model with two additional scenarios. First, we consider endogenous economic productivity gains from specialization. Second, we add a scenario where climate change alters the intensity and frequency of future disasters. The extensions slightly modify the numerical results but do not change the qualitative conclusions. |
| Keywords: | Tropical Cyclones, Climate Change, Growth, General Equilibrium |
| JEL: | C63 O11 Q54 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eth:wpswif:23-382&r=gro |
| By: | Arnaud Deseau (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)) |
| Abstract: | This article uses the confiscation and auction of monastic properties during the French Revolution to assess the effects of land reallocation on agricultural productivity. To proxy for monastic landholdings, I construct a novel dataset using the annual income and location of more than 1, 500 French monasteries in 1768. I perform several cross-checking analyses and demonstrate the validity of the data as a proxy for monastic landholdings both at the monastery and arrondissement levels. I show that arrondissements with greater land reallocation experienced higher levels of agricultural productivity in the mid-19th century. I trace these increases in productivity to the creation of larger and less fragmented farms, leading to an increase in mechanization and the substitution of family labor with a hired specialized labor force. |
| Keywords: | Land Reform, Productivity, French Revolution, Monasteries, Farm Size |
| JEL: | O13 O40 Q15 N53 |
| Date: | 2023–03–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2023009&r=gro |
| By: | T.E. Uberti; M.A. Maggioni; E. Marrocu; S. Usai |
| Abstract: | How do regions develop and evolve along their productive and technological path is a central question. Within an evolutionary perspective, a given region is likely to develop new technologies closer to its pre-existing specialization. We adopt the approach of Hidalgo et al. (2007) to map the regional European technology/knowledge space to investigate the pattern and the evolution of regional specialisation in the most innovative EU countries. These dynamics depend on the interaction of three factors - (i) localised technological change, (ii) endogenous processes of knowledge recombination, and (iii) exogenous technological paradigm shifts while accounting for spatial and technological spillovers. Our paper maps the technological trajectories of 198 EU regions over the period 1986-2010 by using data on 121 patent sectors at the NUTS2 level for the 11 most innovative European countries, plus Switzerland and Norway. The results show that regional technological specialization is mainly shaped by localised technological change and exogenous technological paradigm shifts, whereas recombinant innovation contributes to a lower extent and that these effects largely depends on the increasing, decreasing or stable regional dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Technology/knowledge space;spatial ordered models.;recombinant innovation;patent analysis;localised technology change;evolutionary economic geography;european regions |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cns:cnscwp:202303&r=gro |
| By: | Liu, Weifeng Larry |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the impacts of demographic change on national saving and international capital flows. Introducing demographic structure and pension systems into a four-stage overlapping-generation model of a small open economy, the paper derives analytical solutions which link a wide range of factors to national saving and the current account. This framework enables tractable analysis of the effects of various demographic shocks on national saving and external balances, and also of the interaction between demographic shocks and productivity growth and pension systems. The demographic impacts on national saving and capital flows depend on the nature of demographic shocks (fertility or mortality; transitory, permanent or persistent) and on the stage of demographic shocks, as well as productivity growth and pension structure. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333413&r=gro |
| By: | Krugman, Paul |
| Abstract: | Must the world always get flatter? Many people assume that advancing technology will always promote globalization. But a careful analysis suggests that technological progress can sometimes lead to less, not more, international trade. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper) |
| Date: | 2023–04–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:pdntz&r=gro |