nep-gro New Economics Papers
on Economic Growth
Issue of 2023‒03‒20
eight papers chosen by
Marc Klemp
University of Copenhagen

  1. A cross-verified database of notable people, 3500BC-2018AD By Morgane Laouenan; Palaash Bhargava; Jean-Benoît Eyméoud; Olivier Gergaud; Guillaume Plique; Etienne Wasmer
  2. Aging Population and Technology Adoption By Daniele Angelini
  3. Extraterrestrial Artificial Intelligence: The Final Existential Risk? By Naudé, Wim
  4. The Fall of Constantinople and the Rise of the West By Andreas Link
  5. Impact of financial resources on agricultural growth in Sub-Saharan Africa By Nigo, Ayine; Gibogwe, Vincent
  6. Impact of financial inclusion on economic growth in secular and religious countries By Ozili, Peterson K; Lay, Sok Heng; Syed, Aamir
  7. "Clause and effect": Invention and state intervention during the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars By Billington, Stephen D.; Lane, Joe
  8. State-Based Conflict and Entrepreneurship – Empirical Evidence By Wim Naudé; Lelys Ernesto Amorós; Tilman Brück

  1. By: Morgane Laouenan (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LIEPP - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire d'évaluation des politiques publiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Palaash Bhargava (Department of Economics Columbia University - Columbia University [New York]); Jean-Benoît Eyméoud (LIEPP - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire d'évaluation des politiques publiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Olivier Gergaud (LIEPP - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire d'évaluation des politiques publiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Guillaume Plique (médialab - médialab (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, Kedge BS - Kedge Business School); Etienne Wasmer (New York University [Abu Dhabi] - NYU - NYU System, LIEPP - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire d'évaluation des politiques publiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)
    Abstract: A new strand of literature aims at building the most comprehensive and accurate database of notable individuals. We collect a massive amount of data from various editions of and . Using deduplication techniques over these partially overlapping sources, we cross-verify each retrieved information. For some variables, adds 15% more information when missing in . We find very few errors in the part of the database that contains the most documented individuals but nontrivial error rates in the bottom of the notability distribution, due to sparse information and classification errors or ambiguity. Our strategy results in a cross-verified database of 2.29 million individuals (an elite of 1/43, 000 of human being having ever lived), including a third who are not present in the English edition of . Data collection is driven by specific social science questions on gender, economic growth, urban and cultural development. We document an Anglo-Saxon bias present in the English edition of , and document when it matters and when not.
    Date: 2022
  2. By: Daniele Angelini (University of Konstanz)
    Abstract: Population aging affects the relative supply of inputs in the economy altering the in-centives to adopt different types of technology. Empirically, I document a hump-shaped relation between the age of the population and the adoption of new-technology proxied by the ICT capital share. To explain the non-monotonic relationship and identify the mech-anisms at play, I build a dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous technology and R&D-driven technological progress. New-technology is defined as a labor-saving (capital-intensive) technology requiring skills to be used. An increase in the capital-to-labor ratio driven by population aging increases new-technology adoption while the increasing scarcity of young workers that have higher incentives to acquire the comple-mentary skills to new-technology reduces it. The model, calibrated to fit European data, shows that the demographic structure of the population is a major determinant of tech-nology adoption. Population aging explains almost half of the increase in new-technology adoption in the period 1995-2020 and it determines its reduction in the period 2020-2045. A decomposition exercise shows that population aging is a primary source of the increase in the skill premium explaining a larger share of its increase than technological progress.
    Keywords: Automation, Demographic change, Human capital, Inequality, R&D, OLG
    JEL: J11 J24 J26 J31 E25 H23 O31 O33
    Date: 2023–02–01
  3. By: Naudé, Wim (RWTH Aachen University)
    Abstract: The possibility that artificial extraterrestrial intelligence poses an existential threat to humanity is neglected. It is also the case in economics, where both AI existential risks and the potential long-term consequences of an AGI are neglected. This paper presents a thought experiment to address these lacunas. It is argued that it is likely that any advanced extraterrestrial civilization that we may encounter will be an AGI, and such an AGI will pose an existential risk. Two arguments are advanced for why this is the case. One draws on the Dark Forest Hypothesis and another on the Galactic Colonization Imperative. Three implications for how we govern AI and insure against potential existential risks follow. These are (i) accelerating the development of AI as a precautionary step; (ii) maintaining economic growth until we attain the wealth and technological levels to create AGI and expand into the galaxy; and (iii) putting more research and practical effort into solving the Fermi Paradox. Several areas where economists can contribute to these three implications are identified.
    Keywords: technology, artificial intelligence, existential risk, Fermi paradox, Grabby Aliens
    JEL: O40 O33 D01 D64
    Date: 2023–02
  4. By: Andreas Link
    Abstract: The Renaissance era in Western Europe was marked by a flourishing of economic and cultural life that gave rise to numerous discoveries and inventions. This paper studies the role played by Greek migrants in this process. Using a newly constructed dataset on Greek migrants in Europe after the fall of Constantinople in 1453, I show that a Greek presence in the second half of the fifteenth century increased city growth in the sixteenth century. In terms of mechanisms, I find that a Greek presence increased the available knowledge stock in astronomy, mathematics, and medicine – fields in which ancient Greek and Byzantine scholars were especially advanced. Finally, I document an increase in upper-tail human capital and inventions in these cities. In this way, the findings illustrate the important role of Greek migrants in disseminating scientific knowledge in early modern Europe and show their positive impact on city growth during that time.
    Keywords: Economic development, economic history, human capital, innovation, migration
    JEL: N13 N33 O15 O33 O47
    Date: 2023–03
  5. By: Nigo, Ayine; Gibogwe, Vincent
    Abstract: This study contributes to the literature on financial efficiency and growth. We show that banking development exerts a statistically significant and positive impact on local economic growth. We use the ARDL method to find the impact of institutional financial quality on agriculture sector growth in 14 Sub-Saharan African countries from 1990 to 2020. Our results show that land, rural population, and per capita agricultural income growth have long-run and significant (at 1% level) causal effects on the magnitude of agricultural value added as a percentage of GDP.
    Keywords: foreign direct investment, economic growth, absorptive capacity, human capital, market liberalization
    JEL: F36 F63 G21 O15 O19 O47 O55
    Date: 2023–01–23
  6. By: Ozili, Peterson K; Lay, Sok Heng; Syed, Aamir
    Abstract: Empirical research on the relationship between financial inclusion and economic growth has neglected the influence of religion or secularism. We investigate the effect of financial inclusion on economic growth in religious and secular countries. The financial inclusion indicators are the number of ATMs per 100, 000 adults and the number of bank branches per 100, 000 adults. The findings reveal that bank branch contraction significantly increases economic growth in secular countries. Bank branch expansion combined with greater internet usage increases economic growth in secular countries while high ATM supply combined with greater internet usage decreases economic growth in secular countries. We also find that bank branch expansion, in the midst of a widening poverty gap, significantly increases economic growth in religious countries, implying that financial inclusion through bank branch expansion is effective in promoting economic growth in poor religious countries. It was also found that internet usage is a strong determinant of economic growth in secular countries.
    Keywords: financial inclusion, economic growth, ATMs per 100, 000 adults, bank branches per 100, 000 adults, poverty, internet usage, access of finance, religion, religious countries, secular countries.
    JEL: E32 E51 G21
    Date: 2023
  7. By: Billington, Stephen D.; Lane, Joe
    Abstract: Did the outbreak of the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars influence technical change during the Industrial Revolution? We address this question by investigating an instance of state intervention into the market for inventions from 1793-1820: the introduction of a new proviso into British patents compelling inventors to supply the military, and also attracting military inventions from outside the patent system. We present new patent data alongside previously unused archival evidence to argue that the state's intervention helped direct technical change in Britain. Our evidence provides additional support for the military-demand-induced hypothesis as a credible explanation for Britain's ongoing industrialisation.
    Keywords: Industrial Revolution, Institutions, Invention, Patents
    JEL: N43 N73 O31
    Date: 2023
  8. By: Wim Naudé (RWTH Aachen University and IZA Institute of Labor Economics, Germany; and African Studies Centre, University of Leiden, The Netherlands. Distinguished Visiting Professor, University of Johannesburg); Lelys Ernesto Amorós (EGADE Business School, Tecnol ́ogico de Monterrey, Mexico City, Mexico); Tilman Brück (Humboldt-University of Berlin, Germany; ISDC - International Security and Development Center, Berlin, Germany; and Leibniz Institute of Vegetable and Ornamental Crops, Großbeeren, Germany)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between state-based conflict and entrepreneurship. From a survey of the existing literature, we formulate two hypotheses: (1) state-based conflict has a negative association with productive and opportunity-motivated forms of entrepreneurship, and (2) a positive association with unproductive and necessity-motivated forms of entrepreneurship. We test these hypotheses by drawing on several state-based conflict and entrepreneurship measures, using appropriate estimators, and employing robustness checks. The evidence supports our hypotheses. Necessity-motivated start-up entrepreneurship is, on average, almost three times higher in countries in conflict than in countries not in conflict. Development level matters. In countries with less unemployment, more finance, and higher levels of physical, human capital and GDP, entrepreneurship is more resilient, and the ratio of female-to-male entrepreneurs in opportunity-motivated entrepreneurship higher.
    Keywords: Entrepreneurship, conflict, war, small business, employment
    JEL: J23 L26 M13 N40 O11 O17
    Date: 2023–02

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