nep-gro New Economics Papers
on Economic Growth
Issue of 2022‒09‒19
eight papers chosen by
Marc Klemp
University of Copenhagen

  1. Economic Growth Analysis When Balanced Growth Paths May Be Time Varying By Mountford, Andrew
  2. Persecution, Pogroms and Genocide: A Conceptual Framework and New Evidence By Becker, Sascha O.; Mukand, Sharun; Yotzov, Ivan
  3. Disruptive innovation and spatial inequality By Kemeny, Tom; Petralia, Sergio; Storper, Michael
  4. Democracy and the quality of economic institutions: Theory and evidence By Krieger, Tommy
  5. The Impact of Remittances on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from South Africa By Sheilla Nyasha; Nicholas M. Odhiambo
  6. Occasional Bulletin Economic Notes 2201 Revisiting Emerging Markets Economic Development and Convergence June 2022 By Jean-Franois Mercier
  7. Lower for longer under endogenous technology growth By Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela; Spitzer, Martin
  8. The development of the arid tropics: lessons for economic history By Roy, Tirthankar

  1. By: Mountford, Andrew
    Abstract: The determinants of an economy's balanced growth path for income per capita may vary over time. In this paper we apply unobserved components analysis to an otherwise standard panel model of economic growth dynamics so that an economy's long run relative income per capita can change at any point of time. We apply this model to data for the world economy from 1970-2019 and for US States from 1929-2021. In both datasets an economy's initial relative income per capita is a good predictor of its long run relative income per capita. While we find evidence for ($\sigma$) convergence in relative income in US States in the years 1929-1970, there is little convergence in subsequent periods. Overall these results provide support for the `Poor Stay Poor' hypothesis of Canova and Marcet (1995).
    Keywords: Bayesian Econometrics, Economic Growth, State Space Models, Macroeconomics
    JEL: C11 E3 O47
    Date: 2022–08–19
  2. By: Becker, Sascha O. (Monash University); Mukand, Sharun (University of Warwick); Yotzov, Ivan (University of Warwick)
    Abstract: Persecution, pogroms, and genocide have plagued humanity for centuries, costing millions of lives and haunting survivors. Economists and economic historians have recently made new contributions to the understanding of these phenomena. We provide a novel conceptual framework which highlights the inter-relationship between the intensity of persecution and migration patterns across dozens of historical episodes. Using this framework as a lens, we survey the growing literature on the causes and consequences of persecution, pogroms, and genocide. Finally, we discuss gaps in the literature and take several tentative steps towards explaining the differences in survival rates of European Jews in the 20th century.
    Keywords: genocide, persecution, migration, immigration restrictions, exit or voice
    JEL: D74 F22 F51 N4 O15 R23
    Date: 2022–08
  3. By: Kemeny, Tom; Petralia, Sergio; Storper, Michael
    Abstract: Although technological change is widely credited as driving the last 200 years of economic growth, its role in shaping patterns of inequality remains under-explored. Drawing parallels across two industrial revolutions in the United States, this paper provides new evidence of a relationship between highly disruptive forms of innovation and spatial inequality. Using the universe of patents granted between 1920 and 2010 by the US Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO), we identify disruptive innovations through their rapid growth, complementarity with other innovations and widespread use. We then assign more and less disruptive innovations to subnational regions in the geography of the United States. We document three findings that are new to the literature. First, disruptive innovations exhibit distinctive spatial clustering in phases understood to be those in which industrial revolutions reshape the economy; they are increasingly dispersed in other periods. Second, we discover that the ranks of locations that capture the most disruptive innovation are relatively unstable across industrial revolutions. Third, regression estimates suggest a role for disruptive innovation in regulating overall patterns of spatial output and income inequality.
    Keywords: industrial revolutions; inequality; innovation; regional development; technological change
    JEL: J31 O30 O33 O51
    Date: 2022–07–20
  4. By: Krieger, Tommy
    Abstract: We present a simple model, illustrating how democracy may improve the quality of the economic institutions. The model further suggests that institutional quality varies more across autocracies than across democracy and that the positive effect of democracies on economic institutional quality increases in people's human capital. Using a panel data set that covers 150 countries and the period from 1920 to 2019, and different measures of economic institutional quality, we show results from fixed effect and instrumental variable regressions that are in line with the predictions of our model.
    Keywords: Democracy,Development,Economic Institutions,Human Capital,Political Economy,Political Transitions
    JEL: D73 H11 O43 P14 P48
    Date: 2022
  5. By: Sheilla Nyasha; Nicholas M. Odhiambo
    Abstract: In this paper, we have empirically examined the impact of remittances on economic growth in South Africa over the period from 1970-2019. The study was motivated by the conflicting empirical findings that have emerged in the literature on the impact of remittance on economic growth in various countries. The study was also motivated by the need to find an empirical backing on the assertion that remittances are good for economic growth and can play a key role in lowering the inequality levels in developing countries. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, the empirical results, contrary to expectations, have revealed that in South Africa, remittances have a negative impact on economic growth, irrespective of whether the regression analysis is conducted in the long run, or in the short run. The study, therefore, cautions policy makers when it comes to policies related to harnessing remittances for economic growth. The study argues that it is not only remittance inflows that matter, but also how the remittances are utilised to influence economic growth.
  6. By: Jean-Franois Mercier
    Abstract: Occasional Bulletin Economic Notes 2201 Revisiting Emerging Markets Economic Development and Convergence June 2022
    Date: 2022–06–24
  7. By: Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela; Spitzer, Martin
    Abstract: This paper studies monetary policy strategies under endogenous technology dynamics and low r*. Endogenous growth strengthens the gains from make-up strategies relative to inflation targeting, especially if policy space is reduced. This result is due to the long-run non-neutrality of money and the hysteresis effects in TFP through which ELB episodes generate permanent scars on long-run aggregate supply. Make-up strategies not only foster the alignment of inflation with target but also support productivity-improving investment in R&D and technology adoption and hence the long-run trend path, provided that the inherent make-up element is sufficiently pronounced. Inflation is less responsive to monetary policy due to the interaction with productivity dynamics. As a result, additional stimulus is required at the ELB and the degree of subsequent overshooting is alleviated. Endogenous growth also generates novel monetary policy trade-offs, most notably credibility challenges, which can be mitigated by confining make-up elements to ELB episodes. JEL Classification: E24, E31, E32, E52, O30
    Keywords: cycle-trend interaction, endogenous TFP, hysteresis, make-up strategies, ZLB
    Date: 2022–08
  8. By: Roy, Tirthankar
    Abstract: For centuries, the world’s tropical regions have been poorer than the temperate-zone countries. Does tropicality make the struggle for economic development harder? What do people caught up in the struggle do? The paper defines ‘tropicality’ as the combination of aridity and seasonal rainfall, and in turn, high inter- and intra-year variability in moisture influx. In the past, this condition would generate a variety of adaptive strategies such as migration and transhumance. In the twentieth century, the response pattern changed from adapting to moisture supply towards control of moisture supply. This process unleashed conflict and environmental stress in the vulnerable geography of the semi-arid tropics.
    Keywords: tropical; economic growth; inequality; drought; development; Taylor & Francis deal
    JEL: N10 N55 N57
    Date: 2022–08–11

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