nep-gro New Economics Papers
on Economic Growth
Issue of 2022‒08‒22
five papers chosen by
Marc Klemp
University of Copenhagen

  1. Natural Selection and Innovation-Driven Growth By Chu, Angus; Cozzi, Guido; Fan, Haichao
  2. Human capital in Europe, 1830s – 1930s: towards a new spatial dataset By Gabriele Cappelli; Leonardo Ridolfi; Michelangelo Vasta; Johannes Westberg
  3. Economic Convergence With Safe Assets By Ly Dai Hung
  4. The Kaldor-Verdoorn Law’s at the Age of Robots and AI. By Andrea Borsato; Andre Lorentz
  5. Automation, Inequality and the Future of Work By Syed Saddam Haider

  1. By: Chu, Angus; Cozzi, Guido; Fan, Haichao
    Abstract: This study develops an innovation-driven growth model with natural selection of heterogeneous households and endogenous takeoff. Families differ in their ability to accumulate human capital. In an early stage of development, households with lower education ability accumulate less human capital but choose to have more children and enjoy an evolutionary advantage. In a later stage of development, families with high education ability increase their number of children as their human capital rises over time. In the long run, high-ability households accumulate more human capital, and all families choose the same steady-state fertility rate. Therefore, households' population share and human capital converge to stationary distributions. Initially, the heterogeneity of households makes it more likely for an endogenous takeoff to occur; however, the temporary evolutionary disadvantage of high-ability families has a lasting negative impact on long-run growth. Finally, we provide evidence that heterogeneity in education indeed has adverse effects on education, innovation and economic growth in the long run.
    Keywords: natural selection; innovation; economic development
    JEL: O3 O4
    Date: 2022–06
  2. By: Gabriele Cappelli; Leonardo Ridolfi; Michelangelo Vasta; Johannes Westberg
    Abstract: The literature on the causes of economic growth has emphasized the major role played by human capital accumulation. This survey shows that education and human capital are at the centre stage of the historical literature on industrialization and long-term economic development. Our contribution is threefold: first, we review the literature on the determinants of educational levels focusing on Europe in the period 1830 – 1930. We find that the lack of fine-grain spatial and (at the same time) harmonized data is preventing research on some important aspects of rising education. Secondly, we provide a preliminary taxonomy of European school acts and reforms in the 19th and early-20th century. Finally, we present the first version of a dataset under construction, which aims at providing spatial data covering gross enrolment rates and literacy across European regions from c. 1830 to 1930. Our preliminary results show that, in c. 1850, educational clusters appear to have often crossed national borders. By contrast, the effect of national institutions and regulations seems to have become an important determinant of schooling (and literacy) rates on the eve of the 20th century.
    Keywords: Education, literacy, Europe, regional, comparative.
    JEL: N30 O43 O52
    Date: 2022–03
  3. By: Ly Dai Hung (Vietnam Institute of Economics, Hanoi, Vietnam)
    Abstract: The paper characterizes the convergence of economic growth across economies on accounting for the sovereign debts rating, a measure of the safety of government debts. The empirical analysis combines a cross-section with a panel data regression on a sample of 180 economies over 1990-2019. The evidence records that there exists the convergence of economic growth (-convergence): an economy with lower initial per capita GDP has a higher average growth rate of per capita GDP. Moreover, on cross-section data, the sovereign debts rating amplifies the convergence process, and also exerts a positive effect on the steady state level of per capita GDP relative to that level of world leading economy. And on panel data, the convergence only applies for an economy attains a high enough sovereign debts rating (higher than a threshold of 10.8 established by the data). This result also constitutes an inverted-U-shaped dependence pattern of economic growth on the per capita GDP. These analysis together uncover one mechanism for the convergence that a higher sovereing debts rating raises both the domestic investment and foreign capital inflows, then, stimulating the capital stock accumulation toward the steady state per capita GDP.
    Keywords: Fixed-Effect Panel Regression,Safe Assets,Convergence of Economic Growth,Cross-Section Regression
    Date: 2021–11
  4. By: Andrea Borsato; Andre Lorentz
    Abstract: This paper contributes to the literature around the Kaldor-Verdoorn’s law and analyses the impact of robotisation on the channel through which the law shapes labour-productivity growth. We start with a simple evolutionary interpretation of the law that combines Kaldorian and Post-Keynesian arguments with the neo-Schumpeterian theory of innovation and technological change. Then we apply a GMM estimator to a panel of 17 industries in 25 OECD capitalist economies for the period 1990-2018. After elaborating on the general evidence of the Kaldor-Verdoorn’s law in the sample, we investigate the effect of increasing robotisation. The estimates suggest that for industries with a higher-than-average robot density, the increasing adoption of robots weakens, at least, the meso-economic channel that relates productivity growth to mechanisation. Yet, the higher degree of robotisation strengthens the mechanism that links labour productivity growth at the industrial level to the macro-level dynamic increasing returns to scale that emerge from a general expansion of economic activities through the many interactions between sectors. Such results are in agreement with the empirical literature that suggests different impacts from robotisation on the basis of the level of economic activity considered.
    Keywords: Labour productivity, Kaldor-Verdoorn’s law, Robotisation, GMM.
    JEL: J23 O33 O47
    Date: 2022
  5. By: Syed Saddam Haider (MPhil Scholar, PIDE)
    Abstract: After the industrial revolution, digital technology is something changing the course of the world order. The exponential growth of computing power, artificial intelligence (AI), robots, digitization, the Internet of Things (IoT), and blockchain technology in recent times has impacted every major sector of the economy and is revolutionizing the way we interact and operate businesses.
    Keywords: Automation, Future of Work,
    Date: 2021

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