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on Economic Growth |
| By: | Toke Aidt; Jean Lacroix; Pierre-Guillaume Méon |
| Abstract: | This paper studies a new mechanism that allows political elites from a non-democratic regime to survive a democratic transition: connections. We document this mechanism in the transition from the Vichy regime to democracy in post-World War II France. The parliamentarians who had supported the Vichy regime were purged in a two-stage process where each case was judged twice by two different courts. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we show that Law graduates, a powerful social group in French politics with strong connections to one of the two courts, had a clearance rate that was 10 percentage points higher than others. This facilitated the persistence of that elite group. A systematic analysis of 17,589 documents from the defendants' dossiers is consistent with the hypothesis that the connections of Law graduates to one of the two courts were a major driver of their ability to avoid the purge. We consider and rule out alternative mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | purges, political transitions, elite persistence, connections |
| JEL: | D73 K40 N44 P48 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9760&r= |
| By: | Raffaele Danna; Martina Iori; Andrea Mina |
| Abstract: | The accumulation of knowledge and its application to a variety of human needs is a discontinuous process that involves innovation and change. While much has been written on major discontinuities associated, for instance, with the rise of new technologies during industrial revolutions, other phases of economic development are less well understood, even though they might bring into even sharper focus the mechanisms through which growth is generated by the systematic application of human knowledge to practical problems. In this paper, we investigate the transmission of new mathematical knowledge from the 13th to the end of the 16th century in Europe. Using an original dataset of over 1050 manuals of practical arithmetic, we produce new descriptive and quasi-experimental evidence on the economic importance of the European transition from Roman to Hindu-Arabic numerals (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9). This numerical revolution laid the foundations for the commercial revolution of the 13th century, and the diffusion of knowledge through organised learning had positive and significant effects on the growth of pre-modern European economies. |
| Keywords: | Human capital; knowledge diffusion; learning; economic growth. |
| Date: | 2022–06–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2022/18&r= |
| By: | Enriqueta Camps |
| Abstract: | This paper wants to enlarge evidence presented in the exploratory article by Camps and Engerman, "World Population Growth: The Force of Recent Historical Trends", Journal of Interdisciplinary History, 44:4, 2014. Before the worldwide epidemic impact on mortality caused by Covid 19, world population was growing at a fast track. By 2005-2010 United Nations authorities and the World Bank were regarding population growth vis-a-vis resource availability as an important economic problem in the mid run. The origin of this sort of ideas dates back at least to Malthus on population pressure, diminishing marginal returns of land, scarcity of calories and therefore increase of prices. Before the first industrial revolution only epidemics could threat population growth as to loosen pressure on economic resources. The situation in the period we want to study is very different. By the second half of the 20th century the main reason behind population growth was the great improvement of life expectancies. In OECD countries life expectancies nearly doubled during the 20th century. The overall world situation was one of convergence. All continents with the exception of Africa were improving their mortality conditions. But Camps and Engerman (2014) prove that these facts were counterbalanced in years 1960-2010 by a similar in intensity but opposite in direction trend of fertility. In all continents with the exception of Africa fertility was diminishing, converging to low levels, though with some delay with respect to mortality, causing the population explosion (demographic transition). A very significant variable when explaining fertility evolution is female's education. One year more of education of mothers led to 0,33 less children per couple. Pandemics, different marriage patterns (polygamy), poverty and a different role of children for the family economy draw a different picture in African countries. In this paper we present further quantitative evidence on the impact of population growth, using population growth as an approximate proxy of the aggregated demand evolution at the world level, on prices and output as well as the population growth projections of the twenty first century |
| Keywords: | World population growth, sustainability |
| JEL: | A11 A12 I15 J11 N3 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1842&r= |
| By: | Bakari, Sayef; El Weriemmi, Malek |
| Abstract: | The aim of this investigation is to examine the nexus between domestic investment and economic growth in Arab countries. To attempt our goal, we used annual data for the period 1990 – 2020 and Vector Error Correction Model. Empirical analysis indicates that there is no relationship between domestic investment and economic growth in the long run. However, we find a bidirectional causality between domestic investment and economic growth in the short run. These results provide evidence that domestic investment is necessary in Arab countries’ economy and is presented as an engine of growth since they cause economic growth in the short term. But they are not carried out and treated with a solid and fair manner, which offer new insights into Arabe countries’ investment policy for promoting economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Domestic Investment, Economic Growth, VECM, Arab Countries. |
| JEL: | C13 E22 O40 O47 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:113077&r= |
| By: | Gang Liu; Barbara M. Fraumeni; Shunsuke Managi |
| Abstract: | Chapter 6 from the forthcoming Inclusive Wealth Report 2022 looks at human capital in greater detail, based on the latest human capital estimates from the Inclusive Wealth Report (IWR) project. In the chapter, which is repeated here, the growth of human capital and several of its constituent factors are broken down by gender and by region, and in some cases also by income, since apparently, human capital in the world is not evenly distributed across different regions or countries by income, or between educated males and females, although in almost all country cases total and per capita human capital have grown over time. The purpose is to identify the sources of human capital growth by region, gender, and various determining factors over the observed time period, 1990-2020. |
| JEL: | E01 E24 J16 O57 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30035&r= |
| By: | Ellora Derenoncourt (Princeton University); Chi Hyun Kim (University of Bonn); Moritz Kuhn (University of Bonn); Moritz Schularick (University of Bonn, Sciences Po Paris) |
| Abstract: | The racial wealth gap is the largest of the economic disparities between Black and white Americans, with a white-to-Black per capita wealth ratio of 6 to 1. It is also among the most persistent. In this paper, we construct the first continuous series on white-to-Black per capita wealth ratios from 1860 to 2020, drawing on historical census data, early state tax records, and historical waves of the Survey of Consumer Finances, among other sources. Incorporating these data into a parsimonious model of wealth accumulation for each racial group, we document the role played by initial conditions, income growth, savings behavior, and capital returns in the evolution of the gap. Given vastly different starting conditions under slavery, racial wealth convergence would remain a distant scenario, even if wealth-accumulating conditions had been equal across the two groups since Emancipation. Relative to this equal-conditions benchmark, we find that observed convergence has followed an even slower path over the last 150 years, with convergence stalling after 1950. Since the 1980s, the wealth gap has widened again as capital gains have predominantly benefited white households, and income convergence has stopped. |
| Keywords: | Wealth gap, Racial wealth gap, inequality, historical data |
| JEL: | D63 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:econom:2022-6&r= |
| By: | Antonin Bergeaud; Cyril Verluise |
| Abstract: | Innovation is an important driver of potential growth but quantitative evidence on the dynamics of innovative activities in the long-run are hardly documented due to the lack of data, especially in Europe. In this paper, we introduce PatentCity, a novel dataset on the location and nature of patentees from the 19th century using information derived from an automated extraction of relevant information from patent documents published by the German, French, British and US Intellectual Property offices. This dataset has been constructed with the view of facilitating the exploration of the geography of innovation and includes additional information on citizenship and occupation of inventors. |
| Keywords: | history of innovation, patent, text as data |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1850&r= |
| By: | Ellora Derenoncourt (Princeton University); Chi Hyun Kim (University of Bonn); Moritz Kuhn (University of Bonn); Moritz Schularick (University of Bonn, Sciences Po Paris) |
| Abstract: | The racial wealth gap is the largest of the economic disparities between Black and white Americans, with a white-to-Black per capita wealth ratio of 6 to 1. It is also among the most persistent. In this paper, we construct the first continuous series on white-to-Black per capita wealth ratios from 1860 to 2020, drawing on historical census data, early state tax records, and historical waves of the Survey of Consumer Finances, among other sources. Incorporating these data into a parsimonious model of wealth accumulation for each racial group, we document the role played by initial conditions, income growth, savings behavior, and capital returns in the evolution of the gap. Given vastly different starting conditions under slavery, racial wealth convergence would remain a distant scenario, even if wealth-accumulating conditions had been equal across the two groups since Emancipation. Relative to this equal-conditions benchmark, we find that observed convergence has followed an even slower path over the last 150 years, with convergence stalling after 1950. Since the 1980s, the wealth gap has widened again as capital gains have predominantly benefited white households, and income convergence has stopped. |
| Keywords: | Racial inequality, income and wealth inequality |
| JEL: | J15 N31 N32 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:168&r= |
| By: | Lafond, François; Goldin, Ian; Koutroumpis, Pantelis; Winkler, Julian |
| Abstract: | We review recent research on the slowdown of labor productivity and examine the contribution of different explanations to this decline. Comparing the post-2005 period with the preceding decade for five advanced economies, we seek to explain a slowdown of 0.8 to 1.8pp. We trace most of this to lower contributions of TFP and capital deepening, with manufacturing accounting for the biggest sectoral share of the slowdown. No single explanation accounts for the slowdown, but we have identified a combination of factors which, taken together, accounts for much of what has been observed. In the countries we have studied, these are mismeasurement, a decline in the contribution of capital per worker, lower spillovers from the growth of intangible capital, the slowdown in trade, and a lower growth of allocative efficiency. Sectoral reallocation and a lower contribution of human capital may also have played a role in some countries. In addition to our quantitative assessment of explanations for the slowdown, we qualitatively assess other explanations, including whether productivity growth may be declining due to innovation slowing down. |
| JEL: | O40 E66 D24 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amz:wpaper:2022-08&r= |
| By: | Borissov, Kirill; Pakhnin, Mikhail; Wendner, Ronald |
| Abstract: | We consider a neoclassical growth model with quasi-hyperbolic discounting under Kantian optimization: each temporal self acts in a way that they would like every future self to act. We introduce the notion of a Kantian policy as an outcome of Kantian optimization in a given class of policies. We derive and characterize a Kantian policy in the class of policies with a constant saving rate for an economy with log-utility and Cobb--Douglas production technology and an economy with isoelastic utility and linear production technology. In all cases, the Kantian saving rate is higher than the saving rate of sophisticated agents, and a Kantian path Pareto dominates a sophisticated path. |
| Keywords: | Quasi-hyperbolic discounting; Time inconsistency; Kantian equilibrium; Sophisticated agents; Saving rate; Welfare |
| JEL: | C70 D14 D91 E21 O40 |
| Date: | 2022–06–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:113300&r= |
| By: | Giacomo Magistretti; Marco Tabellini |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study if exposure to the institutions of trade partners changes individuals' attitudes towards democracy and favors the process of democratization. We combine survey data with country-level measures of democracy from 1960 to 2015, and exploit the improvement in air, relative to sea, transportation to derive a time-varying instrument for trade. Relying on within-country variation across cohorts, we find that individuals who grew up when their country was more integrated with democracies are, at the time of the survey, more supportive of democracy. In line with the change in citizens' preferences, economic integration with democratic partners has a large, positive effect on a country's democracy score. Instead, economic integration with non-democratic partners has no impact on either individuals' attitudes or countries' institutions. We provide evidence consistent with the transmission of democratic capital from more to less democratic countries. |
| JEL: | F14 F15 P16 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30055&r= |
| By: | de Souza, Gustavo |
| Abstract: | Developing countries rely on technology created by developed countries. This paper demonstrates that such reliance increases wage inequality but leads to greater production in developing countries. I study a Brazilian innovation program that taxed the leasing of international technology to subsidize national innovation. By exploiting heterogeneous exposure, I show that the program led firms to replace technology licensed from developed countries with in-house innovations, which led to a decline in both employment and the share of high-skilled workers. I explain these findings using a model of directed technological change and cross-country technology transactions. Firms in a developing country can either innovate or lease technology from a developed country, and these two technologies differ endogenously regarding productivity and skill bias due to factor supply disparities in the two countries. I show that the difference in skill bias and productivity can be identified using closed-form solutions by the effect of the innovation program on firms’ expenditure share with lowskilled workers and employ- ment. By calibrating the model to reproduce these effects, I find that increasing the share of firms that patent in Brazil by 1 p.p. decreases the skilled wage premium by 0.02% and production by 0.2%. |
| Keywords: | labor market, technology, wages |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:docweb:2208&r= |