nep-gro New Economics Papers
on Economic Growth
Issue of 2022‒06‒13
nine papers chosen by
Marc Klemp
University of Copenhagen

  1. Historical prevalence of infectious diseases and gender equality in 122 countries By Omang Ombolo Messono; Simplice A. Asongu; Vanessa S. Tchamyou
  2. Witchcraft Beliefs Around the World: An Exploratory Analysis By Boris Gershman
  3. The contribution of industrial robots to labor productivity growth and economic convergence: A production frontier approach By Eder, Andreas; Koller, Wolfgang; Mahlberg, Bernhard
  4. The Impossible Quartet in a Demand Led Growth-Supermultiplier Model for a Small Open Economy By Jose Luis Oreiro; Julio Fernando Costa Santos
  5. Human Capital Growth - with Region and Gender in Perspective By Liu, Gang; Fraumeni, Barbara M.; Managi, Shunsuke
  6. Constructive extraction? Encomienda, the colonial state, and development in Colombia By Jean-Paul Faguet; Camilo Matajira; Fabio Sánchez-Torres
  7. Marx after Okishio: Falling Rate of Profit with Constant Rate of Exploitation By Deepankar Basu; Oscar Orellana
  8. Bayesian social aggregation with accumulating evidence By Marcus Pivato
  9. Topology-dependence of propagation mechanisms in the production network By Eszter Moln\'ar; D\'enes Csala

  1. By: Omang Ombolo Messono (University of Douala, Douala, Cameroon); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Vanessa S. Tchamyou (Yaoundé, Cameroon)
    Abstract: This study examines the effects of the historical prevalence of infectious diseases on contemporary gender equality. Previous studies reveal the persistence of the effects of historical diseases on innovation, through the channel of culture. Drawing on the Parasite-Stress Theory, we propose a framework which argues that historical prevalence of infectious disease reduces contemporary gender equality. Using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) in a cross-section with data from 122 countries between 2000 and 2021, we provide support for the underlying hypothesis. Past diseases reduce gender equality both directly and indirectly. The strongest indirect effects occur through innovation output. Gender equality analysis may take these findings into account and incorporate disease pathogens into the design of international social policy.
    Keywords: Africa, Fixed broadband, Economic growth, Non-linear effects
    JEL: E23 F21 F30 L96 O55
    Date: 2022–01
  2. By: Boris Gershman
    Abstract: This paper presents a new global dataset on contemporary witchcraft beliefs and investigates their correlates. Witchcraft beliefs cut across socio-demographic groups but are less widespread among the more educated and economically secure. Country-level variation in the prevalence of witchcraft beliefs is systematically linked to a number of cultural, institutional, psychological, and socioeconomic characteristics. Consistent with their hypothesized function of maintaining order and cohesion in the absence of effective governance mechanisms, witchcraft beliefs are more widespread in countries with weak institutions and correlate positively with conformist culture and in-group bias. Among the documented potential costs of witchcraft beliefs are disrupted social relations, high levels of anxiety, pessimistic worldview, lack of entrepreneurial culture and innovative activity.
    Keywords: Conformity, Culture, Development, Happiness, Innovation, Institutions, Religion, Social capital, Witchcraft beliefs
    JEL: I31 O10 O31 O43 O57 Z10 Z12 Z13
    Date: 2022
  3. By: Eder, Andreas; Koller, Wolfgang; Mahlberg, Bernhard
    Abstract: This paper investigates the contribution of industrial robots to labor productivity growth and the process of economic convergence in 19 developed and 17 emerging countries in the period 1999 to 2019. To answer our research questions, we extend the non-parametric production frontier framework by considering industrial robots as a separate production factor. Production frontiers and distances to the frontiers are estimated by Data Envelopment Analysis, a method based on linear programming models. Considerable contributions of robotization to labor productivity growth are mainly found in emerging countries and are rather modest in most developed countries. In the period 2009 to 2019 robot capital deepening as a source of productivity growth has gained in importance in emerging countries but not in developed countries. Within the period 1999 to 2019 we find some evidence of i) unconditional β-convergence, ii) a reduction in the dispersion of productivity levels across economies (σ-convergence) and iii) a depolarization (shift from bimodal to unimodal distribution) of the labor productivity distribution. Non-robot physical capital deepening and robotization are the most important drivers of β-convergence. Robot capital deepening contributed to the depolarization of the labor productivity distribution and to σ-convergence. Though, the effect of robot capital deepening on the entire shift of the labor productivity distribution between 1999 and 2019 is modest and dominated by other growth factors such as technological change and non-robot physical capital deepening.
    Keywords: automation; robotization; decomposition; data envelopment analysis; emerging countries; developed countries
    JEL: E24 O33 O47
    Date: 2022–03
  4. By: Jose Luis Oreiro; Julio Fernando Costa Santos
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate the long run sustainability of a growth path led by multiple non-creating capacity autonomous expenditures in a demand led-supermultiplier model for a small open economy. Using two different models the results show that it is impossible to have in the same model long-term economic growth driven by the non-capacity creating component of domestic demand, exogenous income distribution, long-run balance between productive capacity and aggregate demand and balance of payments equilibrium. Economic viability of the balanced-growth path demands growth to be led by exports, at least for small open economies.
    Keywords: Post-Keynesian Economics, Growth and Distribution, Srafian Supermutiplier, Simulation Models
    JEL: E12 E37 P10
    Date: 2022–05
  5. By: Liu, Gang (Statistics Norway); Fraumeni, Barbara M. (Central University of Finance and Economics); Managi, Shunsuke (Kyushu University)
    Abstract: Chapter 6 from the forthcoming Inclusive Wealth Report 2022 looks at human capital in greater detail, based on the latest human capital estimates from the Inclusive Wealth Report (IWR) project. In the chapter, which is repeated here, the growth of human capital and several of its constituent factors are broken down by gender and by region, and in some cases also by income, since apparently, human capital in the world is not evenly distributed across different regions or countries by income, or between educated males and females, although in almost all country cases total and per capita human capital have grown over time. The purpose is to identify the sources of human capital growth by region, gender, and various determining factors over the observed time period, 1990-2020.
    Keywords: country wealth, human capital, analysis by regions and country income, gender, analysis by regions and country income
    JEL: E24 J16 O57 E01
    Date: 2022–05
  6. By: Jean-Paul Faguet; Camilo Matajira; Fabio Sánchez-Torres
    Abstract: The Spanish encomienda, a colonial forced-labor institution that lasted three centuries, killed many indigenous people and caused others to flee into nomadism. And yet we show that Colombian municipalities with encomiendas in 1560 enjoy better outcomes today across multiple dimensions of development compared to those without: higher municipal GDP per capita, tax receipts, and secondary school enrolments; lower infant mortality and unsatisfied basic needs; larger populations; and superior fiscal performance and tax collection efficiency. Why? A mediation exercise using data on local institutions in 1794 shows that encomiendas affected development overwhelmingly by helping build the local state. Detailed historical evidence shows when and how encomenderos founded local institutions early on in places where they settled. Places lacking encomiendas also lacked local states for up to 300 years. These institutions mobilized public investment in ways that doubtless suited encomenderos, but over time spurred greater economic and human development.
    Keywords: EncomiendaForced laborState capacityExtractionColonialismDevelopmentColombia
    JEL: H7 N36 N96 O1 O43
    Date: 2022–05–12
  7. By: Deepankar Basu; Oscar Orellana
    Abstract: Can cost-reducing, technical change lead to a fall in the long run rate of profit if class struggle manages to keep the rate of exploitation constant? In this paper we demonstrate, in a general circulating capital model, that if (a) the technical change is capital-using labor-saving (CU-LS), (b) the real wage bundle can change, and (c) the decline in the unit cost of production is bounded above by the change in the nominal labor cost associated with the new technique of production, then viable technical change can be consistent both with a constant rate of exploitation and a fall in the long run rate of profit. This result vindicates Marx's claim in Volume III of Capital, that if the rate of exploitation remains unchanged then technical change in capitalist economies can lead to a fall in the long run rate of profit.
    Date: 2022–05
  8. By: Marcus Pivato (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CY - CY Cergy Paris Université)
    Abstract: How should we aggregate the ex ante preferences of Bayesian agents with heterogeneous beliefs? Suppose the state of the world is described by a random process that unfolds over time. Different agents have different beliefs about the probabilistic laws governing this process. As new information is revealed over time by the process, agents update their beliefs and preferences via Bayes rule. Consider a Pareto principle that applies only to preferences which remain stable in the long run under these updates. I show that this "eventual Pareto" principle implies that the social planner must be a utilitarian. But it does not impose any relationship between the beliefs of the individuals and those of the planner, except for a weak compatibility condition
    Keywords: Subjective expected utility,Utilitarian,Ex ante Pareto,Stochastic process
    Date: 2022
  9. By: Eszter Moln\'ar; D\'enes Csala
    Abstract: The topology of production networks determines the propagation mechanisms of local shocks and thus the co-movement of industries. As a result, we need a more precisely defined production network to model economic growth accurately. In this study, we analyse Leontief's input-output model from a network theory perspective, aiming to construct a production network in such a way that it allows the most accurate modelling of the propagation mechanisms of changes that generate industry growth. We do this by revisiting a prevalent threshold in the literature that determines industry-industry interdependence. Our hypothesis is that changing the threshold changes the topological structure of the network and the core industries to a large extent. This is significant, because if the production network topology is not precisely defined, the resulting internal propagation mechanisms will be distorted, and thus industry growth modelling will not be accurate. We prove our hypothesis by examining the network topology, and centrality metrics under different thresholds on a network derived from the US input-output accounts data for 2007 and 2012.
    Date: 2022–05

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