nep-gro New Economics Papers
on Economic Growth
Issue of 2022‒02‒28
six papers chosen by
Marc Klemp
University of Copenhagen

  1. Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1885–2008: evidence from eight countries By Broadberry, Stephen; Gardner, Leigh
  2. How production networks amplify economic growth By McNerney, J.; Savoie, C.; Caravelli, F.; Carvalho, W. M.; Farmer, J. D.
  3. Research Effort and Economic Growth By Razzak, Weshah
  4. Climate Change and Economic Activity: Evidence from U.S. States By Mohaddes, K.; Ng, R. N. C.; Pesaran, M. H.; Raissi, M.; Yang, J-C.
  5. Demography, growth and robots in advanced and emerging economies By Lanzafame, Matteo
  6. Public Debt and Welfare in a Quantitative Schumpeterian Growth Model With Incomplete Markets By Marco Cozzi

  1. By: Broadberry, Stephen; Gardner, Leigh
    Abstract: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been absent from recent debates about comparative long-run growth owing to the lack of data on aggregate economic performance before 1950. This paper provides estimates of GDP per capita on an annual basis for eight Anglophone African economies for the period since 1885, raising new questions about previous characterizations of the region's economic performance. The new data show that many of these economies had levels of per capita income which were above subsistence by the early twentieth century, on a par with the largest economies in Asia until the 1980s. However, overall improvements in GDP per capita were limited by episodes of negative growth or “shrinking”, the scale and scope of which can be measured through annual data.
    Keywords: Africa; economic growth; GDP per capita; shrinking
    JEL: E01 N37 O10
    Date: 2022–01–01
  2. By: McNerney, J.; Savoie, C.; Caravelli, F.; Carvalho, W. M.; Farmer, J. D.
    Abstract: Technological improvement is the most important cause of long-term economic growth. We study the effects of technology improvement in the setting of a production network, in which each producer buys input goods and converts them to other goods, selling the product to households or other producers. We show how this network amplifies the effects of technological improvements as they propagate along chains of production. Longer production chains for an industry bias it towards faster price reduction, and longer production chains for a country bias it towards faster GDP growth. These predictions are in good agreement with data and improve with the passage of time, demonstrating a key influence of production chains in price change and output growth over the long term.
    Keywords: Production networks, Growth, Multi-sector models, Productivity
    Date: 2021–12–10
  3. By: Razzak, Weshah
    Abstract: Endogenous growth models based on micro-foundations predict that total factor productivity (TFP) growth is positively associated with effective research effort. We use macroeconomic-pooled time series-cross sectional data for the G7 countries from 2000 to 2017 to provide a robust estimate of this positive effect of research effort on TFP growth.
    Keywords: TFP Growth, Research Efforts, Education, Human Capital, Useful Knowledge
    JEL: C2 C23 O40 O47
    Date: 2021–11–01
  4. By: Mohaddes, K.; Ng, R. N. C.; Pesaran, M. H.; Raissi, M.; Yang, J-C.
    Abstract: We investigate the long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change across 48 U.S. states over the period 1963-2016 using a novel econometric strategy which links deviations of temperature and precipitation (weather) from their long-term moving-average historical norms (climate) to various state-specific economic performance indicators at the aggregate and sectoral levels. We show that climate change has a long-lasting adverse impact on real output in various states and economic sectors, and on labour productivity and employment in the United States. Moreover, in contrast to most cross-country results, our within U.S. estimates tend to be asymmetrical with respect to deviations of climate variables (including precipitation) from their historical norms.
    Keywords: Climate change, economic growth, adaptation, United States
    JEL: C33 O40 O44 O51 Q51 Q54
    Date: 2022–01–21
  5. By: Lanzafame, Matteo
    Abstract: This paper provides estimates of the impact of demographic change on labor productivity growth, relying on annual data over 1961-2018 for a panel f 90 advanced and emerging economies. We find that increases in both the young and old population shares have significantly negative effects on labor productivity growth, working via various channels – including physical and human capital accumulation. Splitting the analysis for advanced and emerging economies shows that population ageing has a greater effect on emerging economies than on advanced economies. Extending the benchmark model to include a proxy for the robotization of production, we find evidence indicating that automation reduces the negative effects unfavorable demographic change – in particular, population aging-on labor productivity.
    Keywords: Labor and Human Capital, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies
    Date: 2021–12–18
  6. By: Marco Cozzi (Department of Economics, University of Victoria)
    Abstract: This paper quantifies the welfare effects of counterfactual public debt policies using an endogenous growth model with incomplete markets. The economy features public debt, Schumpeterian growth, infinitely-lived agents, uninsurable income risk, and discount factor heterogeneity. Two versions of the model are specified, one allowing for households to hold equity in the group of innovating firms. The model is calibrated to the U.S. economy to match the degree of wealth inequality, the share of R&D expenditure in GDP, the firms exit rate, the average growth rate, and other standard long-run targets. When comparing balanced growth paths, I find large long-run welfare gains in equilibria characterized by governments accumulating public wealth. In some parameterizations, the equilibrium response of the growth rate is modest. However, welfare effects decompositions show that the growth component is still an important determinant of the welfare gains in the equilibria characterized by public wealth. The version of the model without equity is easier to solve computationally, allowing to consider transitional dynamics. Taking into account the dynamic adjustment to the new long-run equilibrium shows that the transitional welfare costs are not large enough to change the sign of the welfare effects stemming from a change in public debt. I find that eliminating public debt would lead to a 1.7 increase in welfare, while moving to a debt/GDP ratio of 100% would entail a welfare loss of 0.8%
    Keywords: Public debt, Heterogeneous Agents, Incomplete Markets, Endogenous Growth, Welfare
    Date: 2022–02–15

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