nep-gro New Economics Papers
on Economic Growth
Issue of 2021‒11‒01
eight papers chosen by
Marc Klemp
University of Copenhagen

  1. Population Growth and Automation Density: Theory and CrossCountry Evidence By Ana Lucia Abeliansky; Klaus Prettner
  2. Born in the land of milk and honey: The impact of economic growth on individual wealth accumulation By Bartels, Charlotte; König, Johannes; Schröder, Carsten
  3. Public Debt - Economic Growth: Evidence of a Non-linear Relationship By Blessy Augustine; O.P.C. Muhammed Rafi
  4. Control theory in infinite dimension for the optimal location of economic activity: The role of social welfare function By Raouf Boucekkine; Giorgio Fabbri; Salvatore Federico; Fausto Gozzi
  5. Firm Entry and Exit and Aggregate Growth By Jose Asturias; Sewon Hur; Timothy J. Kehoe; Kim J. Ruhl
  6. Uneven Development in a Kaldor-Pasinetti-Verspagen Model of Growth and Distribution By Jose Luis Oreiro; Vitor Antonio Ferreira Dotta; João Pedro Heringer Machado
  7. Protectionism and economic growth: Causal evidence from the first era of globalization By Ruthardt, Fabian; Potrafke, Niklas; Wüthrich, Kaspar
  8. The Economic Consequences of the Opium War By Wolfgang Keller; Carol H. Shiue

  1. By: Ana Lucia Abeliansky; Klaus Prettner
    Abstract: We analyse the effects of declining population growth on automation. Theoretical considerations imply that countries with lower population growth introduce automation technologies faster than those with higher population growth. We test the theoretical implication on panel data for 60 countries over the time span 1993-2013. Regression estimates support the theoretical implication, suggesting that a one percent increase in population growth is associated with an approximately two percent reduction in the growth rate of robot density. Our results are robust to the inclusion of standard control variables, different estimation methods, dynamic specifications, and changes with respect measuring robot stocks.
    Keywords: Automation, Industrial Robots, Demographic Change, Declining Fertility
    Date: 2021–10
  2. By: Bartels, Charlotte; König, Johannes; Schröder, Carsten
    JEL: D31 D64 O47
    Date: 2021
  3. By: Blessy Augustine (CHRIST (Deemed to be University),Hosur Road, Bengaluru); O.P.C. Muhammed Rafi (BASE University, Bengaluru)
    Abstract: The impact of public debt on economic growth has been widely examined in the literature. The discussions shifted towards examining the possibility of a nonlinear relationship after the seminal work of Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) who proposed a threshold of 90 percent debt to GDP ratio beyond which debt is said to have a detrimental effect on economic growth. Many studies came thereafter found a common threshold for a group of countries and a negative impact of debt on growth beyond this threshold. In this context, we examine the presence of a threshold in the debt-growth nexus and the difference in the impact of debt on growth below and above this threshold in case of 39 emerging and developing economies for the period 1980 – 2019. Unlike most of the existing panel studies, we explore the debt growth relationship using country specific threshold regression models. Our findings show that in countries those confirmed a nonlinearity, the thresholds vary drastically, ranging between 24 and 116 percent. The results dismiss the possibility of a common threshold that fit for all countries and highlights the importance of finding country specific thresholds. Further, we could not find an inverted U-shape relationship between debt and growth in our sample. Apart from having different sets of countries with a positive impact below the threshold and a negative impact above, we could also find evidence for debt supporting growth beyond the threshold in case of ten countries. Also, there are countries in which the detrimental impact debt kicking in even below the threshold value of debt. Our result shows that the impact of public debt on economic growth is different across countries both below and above the threshold.
    Keywords: Public debt, Economic growth, Nonlinearity, Threshold
    Date: 2021–10
  4. By: Raouf Boucekkine (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université, IMéRA - Institute for Advanced Studies - Aix-Marseille University); Giorgio Fabbri (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Salvatore Federico (DEPS - Dipartimento di Economia Politica e Statistica - UNISI - Università degli Studi di Siena = University of Siena); Fausto Gozzi (LUISS - Libera Università Internazionale degli Studi Sociali Guido Carli [Roma])
    Abstract: In this paper, we consider an abstract optimal control problem with state constraint. The methodology relies on the employment of the classical dynamic programming tool considered in the infinite dimensional context. We are able to identify a closed-form solution to the induced Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation in infinite dimension and to prove a verification theorem, also providing the optimal control in closed loop form. The abstract problem can be seen an abstract formulation of a PDE optimal control problem and is motivated by an economic application in the context of continuous spatiotemporal growth models with capital di usion, where a social planner chooses the optimal location of economic activity across space by maximization of an utilitarian social welfare function. From the economic point of view, we generalize previous works by considering a continuum of social welfare functions ranging from Benthamite to Millian functions. We prove that the Benthamite case is the unique case for which the optimal stationary detrended consumption spatial distribution is uniform. Interestingly enough, we also find that as the social welfare function gets closer to the Millian case, the optimal spatiotemporal dynamics amplify the typical neoclassical dilution population size effect, even in the long-run.
    Date: 2021
  5. By: Jose Asturias; Sewon Hur; Timothy J. Kehoe; Kim J. Ruhl
    Abstract: Applying the Foster, Haltiwanger and Krizan (FHK) (2001) decomposition to plant-level manufacturing data from Chile and Korea, we find that the entry and exit of plants account for a larger fraction of aggregate productivity growth during periods of fast GDP growth. To analyze this relationship, we develop a model of firm entry and exit based on Hopenhayn (1992). When we introduce reforms that reduce entry costs or reduce barriers to technology adoption into a calibrated model, we find that the entry and exit terms in the FHK decomposition become more important as GDP grows rapidly, just as they do in the data from Chile and Korea.
    Keywords: Entry; Exit; Productivity; Entry costs; Barriers to technology adoption
    JEL: E22 O10 O38 O47
    Date: 2021–10–19
  6. By: Jose Luis Oreiro; Vitor Antonio Ferreira Dotta; João Pedro Heringer Machado
    Abstract: The main objective of this paper is to incorporate the technological asymmetries between countries in the formal structure of the so-called Kaldor-Pasinetti model of growth and distribution. We will name such a model as Kaldor-Pasinetti-Verspagen Growth-Model. Our basic contribution for the literature of post-Keynesian models of growth and distribution is to redefine Kaldor´s technical progress function to incorporate the technological gap in the determination of the natural rate of growth. Such incorporation will make possible for such class of models to generate uneven development between countries, at least for mature economies, that is, economies where all labor force is employed in the modern or capitalist sector. Since in such models, income distribution is the adjusting variable between natural and warranted rate of growth, one important result of our model is that income distribution between wages and profits is a non-linear function of the level of technological gap: below some threshold level of technological gap, profit-share will be reduced with the reduction of technological gap; above such threshold level, hover, the opposite effect occurs. Another important contribution of this article is to make a general formulation of the saving function, incorporating in the same model the contributions of both Kaldor and Pasinetti. From this general formulation, we can make different closures for the general model, which will allow the analysis of the implications of different assumptions about saving behavior over the income and wealth distribution in the balanced-growth path of mature economies that operate with different levels of technological gap.
    Keywords: Uneven Development, Post Keynesian Economics, Technological progress
    JEL: E12 O11 O14
    Date: 2021–10
  7. By: Ruthardt, Fabian; Potrafke, Niklas; Wüthrich, Kaspar
    JEL: C33 D72 F10 F13 N10 O11
    Date: 2021
  8. By: Wolfgang Keller; Carol H. Shiue
    Abstract: This paper studies the economic consequences of the West’s foray into China after the Opium War (1839-42), when Western colonial influence was introduced in dozens of so-called treaty ports. We document a turnaround during the 19th century in the nature of China’s capital markets. Whereas before the Opium War, coastal cities were of relatively minor importance, the treaty port system of the West transformed China into an economy focused on coastal areas and on international trade that aligned with the trading interests of the West. We show, first, that the West had a positive impact on China’s economy during the 19th century. It brought down local interest rates, and regions under Western influence exhibited both higher rates of industry growth and technology adoption. Second, the geographic scope of influence went far beyond the ports, impacting most of China. Interest rates fell by more than a quarter in the immediate vicinity of the ports and still by almost ten percent at distances of 450 kilometers from treaty ports. The development of China was not simply propelled by its own pre-1800 history, or by post-1978 reforms. The nearly 100 years of semi-colonization have shaped China’s economy today as one focused on the coastal areas.
    JEL: F63 G10 N25 O11
    Date: 2021–10

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