nep-gro New Economics Papers
on Economic Growth
Issue of 2021‒06‒21
seventeen papers chosen by
Marc Klemp
University of Copenhagen

  1. Endogenous Childlessness and Stages of Development By Thomas TB Baudin; David De La Croix; Paula Eugenia Gobbi
  2. Temperature, Disease, and Death in London: Analyzing Weekly Data for the Century from 1866-1965 By Hanlon, William Walker; Hansen, Casper Worm; Kantor, Jake
  3. Weber Revisited: The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Nationalism By Kersting, Felix; Wohnsiedler, Iris; Wolf, Nikolaus
  4. Education Attainment and Economic Growth of Asian Developing Countries By Humaira Kamal Pasha
  5. The Mechanics of the Industrial Revolution By Kelly, Morgan; Mokyr, Joel; Ó Gráda, Cormac
  6. Gender Equality, Growth, and How a Technological Trap Destroyed Female Work By Jane Humphries; Benjamin Schneider
  7. Trade Integration, Global Value Chains, and Capital Accumulation By Michael Sposi; Kei-Mu Yi; Jing Zhang
  8. The long-term growth impact of refugee migration in Europe: A case study By Manthei, Gerrit
  9. Connecting the Scientific and Industrial Revolutions: The Role of Practical Mathematics By Kelly, Morgan; Ó Gráda, Cormac
  10. Interdependence of Growth, Structure, Size and Resource Consumption During an Economic Growth Cycle By Carey W. King
  11. Russian Economic Growth during the Eighteenth Century By Stephen Broadberry; Elena Korchmina
  12. Liquidity Creation, Investment, and Growth By Beck, Thorsten; Döttling, Robin; Lambert, Thomas; Van Dijk, Mathijs A
  13. The Stable Transformation Path By Francisco J. Buera; Joseph P. Kaboski; Martí Mestieri; Daniel G. O'Connor
  14. Impact of Public and Private Investments on Economic Growth of Developing Countries By Faruque Ahamed
  15. Do Corporate Tax Cuts Boost Economic Growth? By Sebastian Gechert; Philipp Heimberger
  16. Subnational Income Growth and International Border Effects By Hanna L. Adam; Mario Larch; David Stadelmann
  17. Pandemics and Local Economic Growth: Evidence from the Great Influenza in Italy By Carillo, Mario; Jappelli, Tullio

  1. By: Thomas TB Baudin; David De La Croix; Paula Eugenia Gobbi
    Abstract: The appendix which appeared in the originally published version of this article is now available as Supplementary Data at the request of the Editorial team.
    Date: 2020–02–01
  2. By: Hanlon, William Walker; Hansen, Casper Worm; Kantor, Jake
    Abstract: Using weekly mortality data for London spanning 1866-1965, we analyze the changing relationship between temperature and mortality as the city developed. Our results show that both warm and cold weeks were associated with elevated mortality in the late 19th-century, but heat effects, due mainly to infant deaths from digestive diseases, largely disappeared after WWI. The resulting change in the temperature-mortality relationship meant that thousands of heat-related deathsâ??equal to 0.8-1.3 percent of all deathsâ??were averted. Our findings also indicate that a series of hot years in the 1890s substantially changed the timing of the infant mortality decline in London.
    JEL: I15 N3 Q54
    Date: 2020–06
  3. By: Kersting, Felix; Wohnsiedler, Iris; Wolf, Nikolaus
    Abstract: We revisit Max Weber's hypothesis on the role of Protestantism for economic development. We show that nationalism is crucial to both, the interpretation of Weber's Protestant Ethic and empirical tests thereof. For late nineteenth-century Prussia we reject Weber's suggestion that Protestantism mattered due to an "ascetic compulsion to save". Moreover, we find that income levels, savings, and literacy rates differed between Germans and Poles, not between Protestants and Catholics, using pooled OLS and IV regressions. We suggest that this result is due to anti-Polish discrimination.
    Keywords: Max Weber; Nationalism; Protestantism
    JEL: N13 N33 O16 Z12
    Date: 2020–06
  4. By: Humaira Kamal Pasha (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)
    Abstract: The purpose of the study is to examine the long-run relationship of economic growth and education in the developing countries of Asia from 1991 to 2015 by following Barro and Lee approach. The econometric strategy indicates long-run relationship between public spending on education and education achievement based on Cobb-Douglas production function with intuition of Solow Augmented Growth Model. In addition, the study attempts to deal with the potential endogeneity by using Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) technique. Findings provide increase economic growth with higher budget allocation in education; however, contradict the assumption of Solow Augmented Mankiw-Romer-Weil for population growth rate. The study finds robust estimates for economic growth determining by life expectancy rate and purchasing power parity as well as by examining heterogeneity among countries classified into subsamples. The findings present valuable recommendations to increase human capital investment in education for policy makers.
    Keywords: Economic growth,Human capital,Public spending,Panel data. JEL Codes: O1,I2,H52,C33
    Date: 2021–03–18
  5. By: Kelly, Morgan; Mokyr, Joel; Ó Gráda, Cormac
    Abstract: For contemporaries, Britain's success in developing the technologies of the early Industrial Revolution rested in large part on its abundant supply of artisan skills, notably in metalworking. In this paper we outline a simple process where successful industrialization occurs in regions that start with low wages and high mechanical skills, and show that these two factors strongly explain the growth of the textile industry across the 41 counties of England between the 1760s and 1830s. By contrast, literacy and access to capital have no power in predicting industrialization, nor does proximity to coal. Although unimportant as a source of power for early textile machinery, Britain's coal was vital as a source of cheap heat that allowed it over centuries to develop a unique range of sophisticated metalworking industries. From these activities came artisans, fromwatchmakers to iron founders, whose industrial skillswere in demand not just in Britain but across all of Europe. Against the view that living standards were stagnant during the Industrial Revolution, we find that real wages rose sharply in the industrializing north and collapsed in the previously prosperous south.
    Date: 2020–06
  6. By: Jane Humphries; Benjamin Schneider
    Abstract: Development economists have long studied the relationship between gender equality and economic growth. More recently economic historians have taken an overdue interest. We sketch the pathways within the development literature that have been hypothesised as linking equality for women to rising incomes and the reverse channels, from higher incomes to equality. We describe how the European Marriage Pattern literature applies these mechanisms, and we highlight problems with the claimed link between equality and growth. We then explain how a crucial example of technological unemployment for women—the destruction of hand spinning during the British Industrial Revolution—contributed to the emergence of the male breadwinner family. We show how this family structure created household relationships that play into the development pathways, and outline its persistent effects into the 21st century.
    Keywords: development economics, gender equality, technological unemployment, family structure
    JEL: J12 J63 N33 O14 O33
    Date: 2021–05–01
  7. By: Michael Sposi; Kei-Mu Yi; Jing Zhang
    Abstract: Motivated by increasing trade and fragmentation of production across countries since World War II, we build a dynamic two-country model featuring sequential, multi-stage production and capital accumulation. As trade costs decline over time, global-value-chain (GVC) trade expands across countries, particularly more in the faster growing country, consistent with the empirical pattern. The presence of GVC trade boosts capital accumulation and economic growth and magnifies dynamic gains from trade. At the same time, endogenous capital accumulation shapes comparative advantage across countries, impacting the dynamics of GVC trade: a country becoming more capital abundant concentrates more on the capital-intensive stage of the production.
    Keywords: Multistage production; International trade; Capital accumulation
    JEL: F10 F43 E22
    Date: 2020–11–13
  8. By: Manthei, Gerrit
    Abstract: Many questions have been raised about the political and economic consequences of the recent surge in refugee immigration in Europe. Can refugee immigration promote long-term per-capita growth? How are the drivers of per-capita growthinfluenced by immigration? What are the policy implications of refugee immigration? Using an adjusted Cobb-Douglas productionfunction,with labour divided into two complementary groups,this study attempts to provide some answers. By applying the model to current immigration data from Germany, the study finds that refugee immigration can lead to long-term per-capita growth in the host country and that the growth is higher if immigrants are relatively young and have sufficiently high qualifications. Further, capital inflowsare a prerequisite for boosting per-capita growth. These findings can inform the migration policiesof countries that continue to grapple with refugee immigration.
    Keywords: Refugee,Immigration,Growth,Labour Supply,Wages
    JEL: E20 F22 O41
    Date: 2020
  9. By: Kelly, Morgan; Ó Gráda, Cormac
    Abstract: Disputes over whether the Scientific Revolution contributed to the Industrial Revolution begin with the common assumption that natural philosophers and artisans formed radically distinct groups. In reality, these groups merged together through a diverse group of applied mathematics teachers, textbook writers and instrument makers catering to a market of navigators, gunners and surveyors. From these "mathematical practitioners" emerged specialized instrument makers whose capabilities facilitated industrialization in two important ways. First, a large supply of instrument and watch makers provided Britain with a pool of versatile, mechanically skilled labour to build the increasingly complicated machinery of the late eighteenth century. Second, the less well known but equally revolutionary innovations in machine tools-which, contrary to the Habbakuk thesis, occurred largely in Britain during the 1820s and 1830s to mass produce interchangeable parts for iron textile machinery-drew on a technology of exact measurement developed for navigational and astronomical instruments.
    Date: 2020–06
  10. By: Carey W. King
    Abstract: All economies require physical resource consumption to grow and maintain their structure. The modern economy is additionally characterized by private debt. The Human and Resources with MONEY (HARMONEY) economic growth model links these features using a stock and flow consistent framework in physical and monetary units. Via an updated version, we explore the interdependence of growth and three major structural metrics of an economy. First, we show that relative decoupling of gross domestic product (GDP) from resource consumption is an expected pattern that occurs because of physical limits to growth, not a response to avoid physical limits. While an increase in resource efficiency of operating capital does increase the level of relative decoupling, so does a change in pricing from one based on full costs to one based only on marginal costs that neglects depreciation and interest payments leading to higher debt ratios. Second, if assuming full labor bargaining power for wages, when a previously-growing economy reaches peak resource extraction and GDP, wages remain high but profits and debt decline to zero. By removing bargaining power, profits can remain positive at the expense of declining wages. Third, the distribution of intermediate transactions within the input-output table of the model follows the same temporal pattern as in the post-World War II U.S. economy. These results indicate that the HARMONEY framework enables realistic investigation of interdependent structural change and trade-offs between economic distribution, size, and resources consumption.
    Date: 2021–06
  11. By: Stephen Broadberry; Elena Korchmina
    Abstract: We provide estimates of economic growth at decadal frequency for Russia during the eighteenth century. Although GDP per head increased between the 1690s and 1760s, this was followed by a period of negative growth between the 1760s and 1800s, leaving GDP per capita just 17 per cent higher at the end of the century than at its beginning. Although Russia’s strong growth in large-scale industry during the eighteenth century has received much attention, this was starting from a very low base. Peter the Great’s modernisation drive thus had only a small effect on the economy as a whole, which remained dominated by agriculture and small-scale industry.
    Date: 2021–05–03
  12. By: Beck, Thorsten; Döttling, Robin; Lambert, Thomas; Van Dijk, Mathijs A
    Abstract: Liquidity creation (the transformation of liquid liabilities into illiquid assets) is a key function of banks. We show that liquidity creation is positively associated with economic growth at both country and industry levels. In particular, liquidity creation helps growth by boosting tangible, but not intangible investment. Our results suggest an important non-linearity; liquidity creation does not contribute to growth in countries with a higher share of industries relying on intangible assets. We rationalize these results using a model in which banks increase aggregate investment by reducing liquidity risk, but low asset tangibility hampers liquidity creation by exacerbating moral hazard problems. Together, these findings provide new insights into the functions of banks, but also highlight their more limited role in supporting innovative industries.
    Keywords: Banking sector development; economic growth; investment; liquidity creation; tangible assets
    JEL: E22 G21 O16 O40
    Date: 2020–06
  13. By: Francisco J. Buera; Joseph P. Kaboski; Martí Mestieri; Daniel G. O'Connor
    Abstract: Standard dynamic models of structural transformation, without knife-edge and counterfactual parameter values, preclude balanced growth path (BGP) analysis. This paper develops a dynamic equilibrium concept for a more general class of models | an alternative to a BGP, which we coin a Stable Transformation Path (STraP). The STraP characterizes the medium-term dynamics of the economy in a turnpike sense; it is the path toward which the economy (quickly) converges from an arbitrary initial capital stock. Calibrated simulations demonstrate that the relaxed parameter values that the STraP allows have important quantitative implications for structural transformation, investment, and growth. Indeed, analyzing the dynamics along the STraP, we show that the modern dynamic model of structural transformation makes progress over the Neoclassical growth model in matching key growth and capital accumulation patterns in cross-country data, including slow convergence.
    Keywords: Growth; Investment Dynamics; Non-balanced Growth
    JEL: E13 E21 E22 E23
    Date: 2020–10–23
  14. By: Faruque Ahamed
    Abstract: This paper aims to study the impact of public and private investments on the economic growth of developing countries. The study uses the panel data of 39 developing countries covering the periods 1990-2019. The study was based on the neoclassical growth models or exogenous growth models state in which land, labor, capital accumulation, etc., and technology proved substantial for economic growth. The paper finds that public investment has a strong positive impact on economic growth than private investment. Gross capital formation, labor growth, and government final consumption expenditure were found significant in explaining the economic growth. Overall, both public and private investments are substantial for the economic growth and development of developing countries.
    Date: 2021–05
  15. By: Sebastian Gechert; Philipp Heimberger (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: The empirical literature on the impact of corporate taxes on economic growth reaches ambiguous conclusions corporate tax cuts increase, reduce, or do not significantly affect growth. We apply meta-regression methods to a novel dataset with 441 estimates from 42 primary studies. There is evidence for publication selectivity in favour of reporting growth-enhancing effects of corporate tax cuts. Correcting for this bias, we cannot reject the hypothesis of a zero effect of corporate taxes on growth. Several factors influence reported estimates, including researcher choices concerning the measurement of growth and corporate taxes, and controlling for other budgetary components.
    Keywords: Corporate income taxes; economic growth; meta-analysis
    JEL: E60 H25 O40
    Date: 2021–06
  16. By: Hanna L. Adam; Mario Larch; David Stadelmann
    Abstract: This paper analyses the effect of international borders and of trade agreements at international borders on subnational (i.e. regional) growth. We construct an extensive panel dataset covering 1,350 regions in 86 countries worldwide between 1950 and 2017. Our results show that international borders decrease regional income per capita, while trade agreements at international borders increase regional income per capita by about the same magnitude. The positive marginal effect of trade agreements on regional income corresponds to at least three fifths of the negative marginal effect of international borders. Thus, trade agreements can compensate negative border effects and explain regional inequalities within countries. An array of robustness tests supports our interpretations.
    Keywords: border effects, trade, trade agreements, GDP per capita, regional analysis
    JEL: F14 F15 F43 O18 R12
    Date: 2021
  17. By: Carillo, Mario; Jappelli, Tullio
    Abstract: We investigate the link between the 1918 Great Influenza and regional economic growth in Italy, a country in which the measures implemented by public authorities to contain the contagion were limited or ineffective. The pandemic caused about 600,000 deaths in Italy, a death rate of about 1.2%. We find evidence of a strong and significant adverse effect of the pandemic on regional growth. In particular, going from regions with the lowest mortality to those with the highest mortality is associated to a decline in per capita GDP growth of about 6.5%, which dissipated within three years. In line with this finding, we also estimate a small and transitory negative effect of the influenza on industrialization. Our estimates provide an upper bound of the adverse effect of pandemics on local economic growth in the absence of non-pharmaceutical public health interventions.
    Keywords: Great Influenza; mortality and growth; regional growth
    Date: 2020–06

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