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on Economic Growth |
| By: | Ulrich J. Eberle (Future of Conflict Fellow at International Crisis Group and Princeton University); Dominic Rohner (University of Lausanne and CEPR); Mathias Thoenig (University of Lausanne and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of climate shocks on violence between herders and farmers by using geolocalized data on conflict events for all African countries over the 1997-2014 period. We find that a +1℃ increase in temperature leads to a +54% increase in conflict probability in mixed areas populated by both farmers and herders, compared to +17% increase in non-mixed areas. This result is robust to controlling for the interaction between temperature and ethnic polarization, alternative estimation techniques, disaggregation levels, and coding options of the climatic/conflict/ethnic variables. When quantifying at the continental level the impact on conflict of projected climate change in 2040, we find that, in absence of mixed population areas, global warming is predicted to increase total annual conflicts by about a quarter in whole Africa; when factoring in the magnifying effect of mixed settlements, total annual conflicts are predicted to rise by as much as a third. We also provide two pieces of evidence that resource competition is a major driver of farmer-herder violence. Firstly, conflicts are much more prevalent at the fringe between rangeland and farmland - a geographic buffer of mixed usage that is suitable for both cattle herding and farming but is particularly vulnerable to climate shocks. Secondly, information on groups' mobility reveals that temperature spikes in the ethnic homeland of a nomadic group tend to diffuse its fighting operations outside its homeland, with a magnified spatial spread in the case of conflicts over resources. Finally, we show that violence is substantially reduced in the presence of policies that empower local communities, foster participatory democracy, enforce property rights and regulate land dispute resolution. |
| Keywords: | Conflict, civil war, violence, climate change, weather, heat, temperature, nomadic, ethnicity, resource competition, farmer-herder conflict, Sahel |
| JEL: | D74 N47 O13 Q34 Z13 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:esocpu:22&r=all |
| By: | Boyan Jovanovic; Zhu Wang |
| Abstract: | We study the innovation and diffusion of technology at the industry level. We derive the full dynamic paths of an industry’s evolution, from birth to its maturity, and we characterize the impact of diffusion on the incentive to innovate. The model implies that protection of innovators should be only partial due to the congestion externality in meetings in which idea transfers take place. We fit the model to the early experiences of the automobile and personal computer industries both of which show an S-shaped growth of the number of firms. |
| Keywords: | Technology; Innovation |
| Date: | 2020–08–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedrwp:88808&r=all |
| By: | Florian Pelgrin (École des hautes études commerciales du Nord (EDHEC)); Alain Venditti (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, École des hautes études commerciales du Nord (EDHEC)) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a long-run cycle perspective to explain the behavior of the annual flow of inheritance as identified by Piketty [51] for France and Atkinson [3] for the UK. Using a two-sector Barro-type [9] OLG model with non-separable preferences and bequests, we show that endogenous fluctuations are likely to occur through period-2 cycles or Hopf bifurcations. Two key mechanisms, which can generate independently or together quasi-periodic cycles, can be identified as long as agents are sufficiently impatient. The first mechanism relies on the elasticity of intertemporal substitution or equivalently the sign of the cross-derivative of the utility function whereas the second rests on sectoral technologies through the sign of the capital intensity difference across two sectors. Furthermore, building on the quasi-palindromic nature of the degree-4 characteristic equation, we derive some meaningful sufficient conditions associated to the occurrence of complex roots in a two-sector OLG model. Finally, we show that our theoretical results are consistent with some empirical evidence for medium- and long-run swings in the inheritance flows as a fraction of national income in France over the period 1896-2008. |
| Keywords: | two-sector overlapping generations model,optimal growth,endogenous fluctuations,quasi-palindromic polynomial,periodic and quasi-periodic cycles,altruism,bequest |
| Date: | 2020–12–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03080407&r=all |
| By: | Kaumudi Misra (Institute for Social and Economic Change) |
| Abstract: | This paper attempts to analyse the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions in India. The parameters selected for understanding this relationship are GDP (as a proxy of economic growth) and CO2 emissions for the period 1970-2012. The study includes other important parameters such as energy consumption (oil) and urbanisation. Granger causality is used to check the existence of unidirectional and bi-directional causalities between the variables. The results reveal that there exists a unidirectional causality from energy consumption and GDP to carbon emissions. The ARDL model is used to understand the long run and short run relationship between the variables. The study finds that there exists a long run relationship between the variables whereas in the short run, there is no relationship between the variables. The findings imply that any attempt at reducing carbon emissions without bringing in energy efficiency will adversely affect the economic growth of the country. |
| Keywords: | Economics; Consumption; Urbanization |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sch:wpaper:447&r=all |