nep-gro New Economics Papers
on Economic Growth
Issue of 2019‒06‒17
24 papers chosen by
Marc Klemp
University of Copenhagen

  1. Staple Products, Linkages, and Development: Evidence from Argentina By Federico Droller; Martin Fiszbein
  2. The Standard Errors of Persistence By Morgan Kelly
  3. Immigrant Communities and Knowledge Spillovers: Danish-Americans and the Development of the Dairy Industry in the United States By Nina Boberg-Fazlić; Paul Sharp
  4. The long-run effects of uncertainty shocks By Bonciani, Dario; Oh, Joonseok Jason
  5. Malthus in Pre-industrial Northern Italy? A Cointegration Approach By Maja Pedersen; Claudia Riani; Paul Sharp
  6. Measuring Data Uncertainty : An Application using the Bank of England’s “Fan Charts” for Historical GDP Growth By Galvao, Ana Beatriz; Mitchell, James
  7. Human Capital, Knowledge Creation, Knowledge Diffusion, Institutions and Economic Incentives: South Korea versus Africa By Simplice A. Asongu; Vanessa S. Tchamyou
  8. Structural Change, Capital Deepening, and TFP Growth in Japan: 1885-1970 By Fukao, Kyoji; Makino, Tatsuji; Settsu, Tokihiko
  9. A simple characterization for sustained growth By Ha-Huy, Thai; Tran, Nhat-Thien
  10. Economic Growth, Energy Intensity and the Energy Mix By Rodríguez, Jesús; Puch, Luis A.; Marrero, Gustavo; Díaz Rodríguez, Antonia
  11. Nonlinear Effects of Population Aging on Economic Growth? By Lee, Hyun-Hoon; Shin, Kwanho
  12. Economic growth and convergence during the transition to production using automation capital By Martin Labaj; Daniel Dujava
  13. On the optimal labor income share By Jakub Growiec; Peter McAdam; Jakub Mućk
  14. Conditional Convergence and Future TFP Growth in Israel By Shay Tsur; Eyal Argov
  15. Human Development in the Age of Globalisation By Leandro Prados de la Escosura
  16. Creativity-Enhancing Technological Change in the Production of Scientific Knowledge* By Link, Al; Scott, John
  17. Baumol versus Engel: Accounting for 100 years (1885-1985) of Structural Transformation in Japan By Fukao, Kyoji; Paul, Saumik
  18. Development in Africa By Riccardo Pelizzo; Abel Kinyondo; Zim Nwokora
  19. Ethnic Identities, Public Spending and Political Regimes By Sugata Ghosh; Anirban Mitra
  20. Demographic change, human capital, and economic growth in Korea By Jong-Suk Han; Jong-Wha Lee
  21. Wheels and cycles: (sub)optimality and volatility of corrupted economies. By Stefano BOSI; David DESMARCHELIER; Thai HA-HUY
  22. A Long-Run Growth Model for Israel By Eyal Argov; Shay Tsur
  23. Hysteresis in the normal rate of capacity utilization: a behavioural explanation By Mark Setterfield; Joana David Avritzer
  24. Technical progress and structural change: a long-term view By Nuvolari, Alessandro; Russo, Emanuele

  1. By: Federico Droller (Universidad de Santiago de Chile); Martin Fiszbein (Boston University)
    Abstract: We investigate how historical patterns of primary production influenced development across local economies in Argentina. Our identification strategy exploits exogenous varia- tion in the composition of primary production induced by climatic features. We find that locations specializing in ranching had weaker linkages with other activities, higher con- centration in land ownership, lower population density, and less immigration than cereal- producing areas. Over time, ranching localities continued to exhibit lower population den- sity and they experienced relatively sluggish industrialization. Ultimately, ranching special- ization had large negative effects on long-run levels of income per capita and human capital. Our findings show that early patterns of production can have a crucial influence on develop- ment patterns, providing suggestive support to the staple theory of economic growth.
    Keywords: Political
    JEL: O13 O14 N56 N96 N16
    Date: 2019–06
  2. By: Morgan Kelly
    Abstract: A large literature on persistence finds that many modern outcomes strongly reflect characteristics of the same places in the distant past. However, alongside unusually high t statistics, these regressions display severe spatial auto-correlation in residuals, and the purpose of this paper is to examine whether these two properties might be connected. We start by running artificial regressions where both variables are spatial noise and find that, even for modest ranges of spatial correlation between points, t statistics become severely inflated leading to significance levels that are in error by several orders of magnitude. We analyse 27 persistence studies in leading journals and find that in most cases if we replace the main explanatory variable with spatial noise the fit of the regression commonly improves; and if we replace the dependent variable with spatial noise, the persistence variable can still explain it at high significance levels. We can predict in advance which persistence results might be the outcome of fitting spatial noise from the degree of spatial auto-correlation in their residuals measured by a standard Moran statistic. Our findings suggest that the results of persistence studies, and of spatial regressions more generally, might be treated with some caution in the absence of reported Moran statistics and noise simulations.
    Keywords: Persistence; Deep origins; Spatial noise
    Date: 2019–04
  3. By: Nina Boberg-Fazlić (University of Southern Denmark); Paul Sharp (University of Southern Denmark)
    Abstract: Despite the growing literature on the impact of immigration, little is known about the role existing migrant settlements can play for knowledge transmission. We present a case which can illustrate this important mechanism and hypothesize that nineteenth century Danish-American communities helped spread knowledge on modern dairying to rural America. From around 1880, Denmark developed rapidly and by 1890 it was a world-leading dairy producer. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, and data taken from the US census and Danish emigration archives, we find that counties with more Danes in 1880 subsequently both specialized in dairying and used more modern practices.
    Keywords: Dairying, immigration, knowledge spillovers, technology
    JEL: F22 J61 N11 N31 N51 O33 Q16
    Date: 2019–06
  4. By: Bonciani, Dario (Bank of England); Oh, Joonseok Jason (European University Institute)
    Abstract: This paper argues that shocks increasing macroeconomic uncertainty negatively affect economic activity not only in the short but also in the long run. In a sticky-price DSGE model with endogenous growth through investment in R&D, uncertainty shocks lead to a short-term fall in demand because of precautionary savings and rising markups. The decline in the utilised aggregate stock of R&D determines a fall in productivity, which causes a long-term decline in the main macroeconomic aggregates. When households feature Epstein-Zin preferences, they become averse to these long-term risks affecting their consumption process (long-run risk channel), which strongly exacerbates the precautionary savings motive and the overall negative effects of uncertainty shocks.
    Keywords: Uncertainty shocks; R&D; endogenous growth
    JEL: E32 O40
    Date: 2019–06–07
  5. By: Maja Pedersen (University of Southern Denmark); Claudia Riani (I.R.T.A. - Leonardo, Pisa); Paul Sharp (University of Southern Denmark)
    Abstract: Although a number of studies have attempted to test the hypothesis of a “Malthusian” pre-industrial world, few have focused on countries outside the UK, or on the “post-Malthusian” regime postulated by Unified Growth Theory. The present work is the first to test explicitly for the post-Malthusian regime in a setting outside the UK and Scandinavia, namely northern Italy from 1650. Employing a cointegrated VAR model, we find evidence that this part of the world does not fit cleanly into the Malthusian or post-Malthusian worlds, suggesting room for an extension of the simple Malthusian model.
    Keywords: Cointegration, Italy, Malthusian, post-Malthusian
    JEL: J1 N33 O4
    Date: 2019–06
  6. By: Galvao, Ana Beatriz (University of Warwick); Mitchell, James (University of Warwick)
    Abstract: Historical economic data are often uncertain due to sampling and non-sampling errors. But data uncertainty is rarely communicated quantitatively. An exception are the “fan charts” for historical GDP growth published at the Bank of England. We propose a generic loss function based approach to extract from these ex ante density forecasts a quantitative measure of unforecastable data uncertainty. We find GDP data uncertainty in the UK rose sharply at the onset of the 2008/9 recession; and that data uncertainty is positively correlated with popular estimates of macroeconomic uncertainty.
    Keywords: data revisions ; macroeconomic uncertainty ; ex ante uncertainty ; ex post uncertainty ; density forecast calibration ; backcasts
    JEL: C53 E32
    Date: 2019
  7. By: Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé/Cameroon); Vanessa S. Tchamyou (University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium)
    Abstract: This article compares African countries to South Korea in terms of knowledge economy (KE). Emphasis is laid on human capital, knowledge creation, knowledge diffusion, institutions and economic incentives. The analytical approach consists of providing knowledge economy catch-up strategies that can be understood within the context of country-specific gaps between the frontier country in KE and laggard African countries. The empirical evidence is based on sigma convergence with data for the period 1996-2010. Overall, a KE diagnosis is provided by assessing KE gaps (between South Korea and specific-African countries) and suggesting compelling catch-up strategies with which to reduce identified gaps. Contemporary and non-contemporary policies from South Korea and more contemporary policies based on challenges of globalisation are discussed. The policy relevance of this inquiry aligns with the scholarly perspective that catch-up between South Korea and more advanced economies was accelerated by the former adapting to and assimilating relatively obsolete technological know-how from more developed nations.
    Keywords: Knowledge economy; Benchmarks; Policy syndromes; Catch-up; Africa
    JEL: O10 O30 O38 O55 O57
    Date: 2018–01
  8. By: Fukao, Kyoji; Makino, Tatsuji; Settsu, Tokihiko
    Abstract: After the Meiji Restoration of 1868, Japan modernized its institutions and economic growth gradually picked up. Growth accelerated especially during the so-called high-speed growth era from 1955 to 1970, when Japan rapidly caught up with Western economies. The long-term sustained high-speed growth recorded during this period was unprecedented not only in Japan but worldwide. While other East Asian countries such as Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, and China subsequently also experienced remarkable growth over a prolonged period, Japan’s place in history as the first country to record such sustained high-speed growth means that its experience continues to garner worldwide interest. Using newly constructed Hitotsubashi estimates of Japan’s historical GDP statistics and a growth accounting framework, we analyze the sources of Japan’s economic growth from 1885 to 1970 and try to answer why Japan was not able to accomplish such high-speed growth before 1955. Since until the mid-1960s the primary sector accounted for a large share of economic activity and was a major determinant of overall economic growth, we use a Hayashi and Prescott (2008) type two-sector model in which the economy overall is divided into the primary sector and the non-primary sector
    Date: 2019–05
  9. By: Ha-Huy, Thai; Tran, Nhat-Thien
    Abstract: This article considers an inter-temporal optimization problem in a fairly general form and give sufficient conditions ensuring the convergence to infinity of the economy. These conditions are easy to verify and can be applied for a large class of problems in literature. As examples, some applications for different economies are also given.
    Keywords: Unbounded growth, sustained growth, non-convex dynamic programming
    JEL: C02 C61 O4 O40 O41
    Date: 2019–05–21
  10. By: Rodríguez, Jesús; Puch, Luis A.; Marrero, Gustavo; Díaz Rodríguez, Antonia
    Abstract: This paper explores how changes in energy intensity and the switch to renewables can boost economic growth. To do so, we implement a dynamic panel data approach on a sample of 134 countries over the period 1960 to 2010. We incorporate a set of control variables, related to human and physical capital, socio-economic conditions, policies and institutions, which have been widely used in the literature on economic growth. Given the current state of technology, improving energy intensity is growth enhancing at the worldwide level. Moreover, conditional to energy intensity, moving from fossil fuels to frontier renewables (wind, solar, wave or geothermic) is also positively correlated with growth. Our results are robust to the specification of the dynamic panel with respect to alternative approaches (pooled OLS, within group or system GMM), and to alternative specifications (accounting for heterogeneity across countries, a set of institutional factors, and other technical aspects).
    Keywords: Dynamic Panel Data Models; Renewables; Energy Intensity; Growth
    JEL: Q43 Q2 O5 C23
    Date: 2019–03–22
  11. By: Lee, Hyun-Hoon; Shin, Kwanho
    Abstract: Using panel data for 142 countries for the period from 1960 to 2014, we assess the effects of population aging on economic growth. We find that population aging proxied by old-age population share (or old-age dependency ratio) negatively affects economic growth only when it reaches a certain high level and its negative effects grow stronger as population aging deepens. We also find that population aging has hampered economic growth during more recent years, especially in more aged countries which are mostly developed countries. This nonlinear effect of aging is mainly driven by the fact that we use old-age population share as a proxy for aging. If we use lower working-age population share as a proxy for aging, the nonlinear relationship disappears: working-age population share is positively related to economic growth in a linear way.
    Keywords: population aging, working-age population, economic growth, nonlinearity, developed countries
    JEL: J11 O47 O57
    Date: 2019–04
  12. By: Martin Labaj; Daniel Dujava
    Abstract: This paper examines the implications of automation capital in a Solow growth model withtwo types of labour. We study the transition from standard production to production usingautomation capital which substitutes low-skilled workers. We assume that despite advancesin technology, AI and machine learning, certain tasks can be performed only by high-skilledlabour and are not automatable. We show that under these assumptions, automation capitaldoes not generate endogenous growth without technological progress. However, assumingpresence of technological progress augmenting both effective number of workers and effectivenumber of industrial robots, automation increases rate of long-run growth. We analyse asituation in which some countries do not use robots at all and other group of countries startsthe transition to the economy where industrial robots replace low-skilled labour. We showthat this has potential non-linear effects on?-convergence and that the model is consistentwith temporary divergence of incomes per capita. We derive a set of estimable equationsthat allows us to test the hypotheses in a Mankiw-Romer-Weil framework.
    Keywords: Automation, Economic growth, Income inequality, Convergence, Robots
    JEL: D63 E25 O11 O41
    Date: 2019–04–24
  13. By: Jakub Growiec (Narodowy Bank Polski); Peter McAdam (European Central Bank); Jakub Mućk (Narodowy Bank Polski)
    Abstract: Labor’s share of income has attracted interest in recent years reflecting its apparent protracted decline. These falls, witnessed across many countries, are usually deemed undesirable. Any such assertion, however, begs the question of what is the socially optimal labor share. We address this question using a micro-founded endogenous growth model calibrated on US data. We find that in our central calibration the socially optimal labor share is 17% (11 pp) above the decentralized equilibrium, calibrated to match the average observed in history. We also study the dependence of both long-run growth equilibria on model parameters and relate our results to Piketty’s “laws of capitalism”. Finally, we demonstrate that cyclical movements in factor income shares are socially optimal and that the decentralized equilibrium typically does not generate excess volatility.
    Keywords: Labor income share, Endogenous growth, Factor augmenting endogenous technical change, Social optimum, Decentralized allocation.
    JEL: O33 O41
    Date: 2019
  14. By: Shay Tsur (Bank of Israel); Eyal Argov (Bank of Israel)
    Abstract: This study is part of a broad project of constructing a long-run growth model for Israel, and to evaluate how different exogenous developments, or policy steps, are expected to affect the long run growth rate. The current study describes the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) block of the project. We first estimate productivity determinants in regressions that are based on a cross section of countries with fundamental variables such as geography and culture, together with policy affected variables such as physical and human infrastructures, and institutions. We test the robustness of the policy estimates by running panel regressions with policy variables for which historical data are available. Using the estimates from the cross section regressions we calculate the gap of each country's productivity from its own predicted value, and forecast Israel's TFP growth by using this calculated gap as the potential to converge and therefore to grow faster than the average world growth rate. In this respect, this work is novel in integrating the deep roots of growth literature into a conditional convergence framework. We find that Israel's actual productivity level is slightly below the predicted one, suggesting that it has only a small potential to grow faster than the average global growth. The baseline TFP growth forecast for the years 2015--60 is 0.47, very similar to the historical growth rate of Israel's TFP over the last 15 years.​
    Date: 2019–03
  15. By: Leandro Prados de la Escosura (Universidad Carlos III, CEPR, Groningen)
    Abstract: This paper provides a long run view of human development as a capabilities measure of well-being for the last one-and-a-half centuries on the basis of an augmented historical human development index [AHHDI] that combines achievements in health, education, living standard, plus liberal democracy, and provides an alternative to the UN Human Development Index, HDI. The AHHDI shows substantial gains in world human development since 1870, especially during 1913-1970, but much room for improvement exists. Life expectancy has been the leading force behind its progress, especially until 1970. Human development spread unevenly. The absolute gap between western Europe and its offshoots plus Japan -the OECD- and the Rest of the world deepened over time, though fell in relative terms, with catching-up driven by longevity during the epidemiological transition and by democratization thereafter. This result compares favourably with the growing income gap. Economic growth and human development do not always go hand-in-hand.
    Keywords: Human Development, Well-being, Capabilities, Life Expectancy, Health Transition, Schooling, Income, Liberal Democracy
    JEL: I00 N30 O15
    Date: 2019–06
  16. By: Link, Al (University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Department of Economics); Scott, John (Dartmouth College)
    Abstract: We view scientific publications as a measure of technical knowledge. Using the Solow method of functional decomposition and scientific publication data from the National Institute of Standards and Technology, we find that 79 percent if the increase of scientific publications per unit of scientific personnel is explained by an increase in federal R&D capital per unit of scientific personnel. We describe the unexplained or residual 21 percent as a measure of creativity-enhancing technological change, a phenomenon that offers a way to reverse the perceived slowing of the productivity of science. The explained 79 percent offers a possible metric for federal laboratories' mandated reporting of a ROI to federal R&D. Understanding the drivers of the residual 21 percent could enable public policy to mitigate the resource constraints caused by the breakdown of exponential growth of the resources devoted to science.
    Keywords: scientific publications; technological change; R&D; knowledge production function;
    JEL: O33 O38
    Date: 2019–06–17
  17. By: Fukao, Kyoji; Paul, Saumik
    Abstract: This paper examines the drivers of the long-run structural transformation in Japan. We use a dynamic input-output framework that decomposes the reallocation of the total output across sectors into two components: the Engel effect (demand side) and the Baumol effect (supply side). To perform this task, we employ 13 seven-sector input-output tables spanning 100 years (1885 to 1985). The results show that the Engel effect was the key explanatory factor in more than 60% of the sector-period cases in the pre-WWII period, while the Baumol effect drove structural transformation in more than 75% of such cases in the post-WWII period. Detailed decomposition results suggest that in most of the sectors (agriculture, commerce and services, food, textiles and transport, communication and utilities), changes in private consumption were the dominant force behind the demand-side explanations. The Engel effect was found to be the strongest in the commerce and services sector, which contributed to the rapid growth of GDP in Japan throughout the 20th century
    Keywords: long-run structural transformation, the Engel effect, Baumol’s cost disease effect, sectoral productivity growth
    JEL: O40 O10
    Date: 2019–05
  18. By: Riccardo Pelizzo (Nazarbayev University, Astana, Kazakhstan); Abel Kinyondo (University of Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania); Zim Nwokora (Deakin University, Australia)
    Abstract: The purpose of the chapter is to analyze Africa’s economic successes in the past half century, to understand not only what made it possible but also and more importantly what risk factors may eventually bring it to an end or compromise it. While it may not be possible for Africa to alter, for now, its position in the world system, it may nonetheless create the conditions for sustained economic growth and development by deepening democracy, enhancing the stability of political regimes and by reducing the incidence of tropical diseases.
    Keywords: Africa, development, world system, poverty, institutions, globalization, international organizations, FDIs, debt
    JEL: O1 O10 O11 O15 O16 O19
    Date: 2018–01
  19. By: Sugata Ghosh; Anirban Mitra
    Abstract: Do democracies discriminate less against minorities as compared to non-democracies? How does the dominance of an ethnic group affect discrimination under various political regimes? We build a theory which tries to answer such questions. In our model, political leaders (democratically elected or not) decide on the allocation of spending on different types of public goods: a general public good and an ethnically-targetable public good which benefits the majority ethnic group while imposing a cost on the other minorities. We show that, under democracy, lower ethnic dominance leads to greater provision of the general public good while higher dominance implies higher provision of the ethnically-targetable good. Interestingly, the opposite relation obtains under dictatorship. This implies that political regime changes can favour or disfavour minorities based on the ambient level of ethnic dominance. Several historical events involving regime changes can be analysed within our framework and are consistent with our results.
    Keywords: Ethnic identities; Discrimination; Public spending; Political regimes
    JEL: D72 D74 H40
    Date: 2019–06
  20. By: Jong-Suk Han; Jong-Wha Lee
    Abstract: In this study, we construct a measure of human capital using micro datasets on labor composition of age, gender, education, and wage rate and analyze its role in economic growth for the Korean economy. Over the past three decades, human capital has grown steadily at about 1% per year, contrasting to a continuously declining trend of total work-hours. This growth has been driven by the rise of better-educated baby boom cohorts. A growth accounting exercise shows that human capital contributes significantly to economic growth; it accounted for 0.5% points of annual GDP growth over the period. Human capital is projected to remain a major growth factor over the next two decades as the increase in educational attainment continues. Increased employment rate of elderly or female workers reduces the aggregate human capital growth while increasing the available labor. Polices to improve human capital of less-productivity workers will help to support aggregate human capital and economic growth.
    Keywords: Aging, Demographic change, Education, Human capital, Growth, Training
    JEL: I25 J24 O47 O53
    Date: 2019–06
  21. By: Stefano BOSI; David DESMARCHELIER; Thai HA-HUY
    Abstract: We consider a simple economy where production depends on labor supply and social capital. Networking increases the social capital ("greases the wheel") but also the corruption level ("sands the wheel"). Corruption is a negative productive externality. We compare the market economy, where the negative externality is not taken in account by individuals, with a centralized economy, where the planner internalizes the negative effect. We highlight the possible existence of cycles in the market economy and optimal cycles in the planned one. We compare the centralized and the decentralized solutions in the short and in the long run.
    Keywords: Corruption, optimal cycles, Ramsey model.
    JEL: C61 E32
    Date: 2019
  22. By: Eyal Argov (Bank of Israel); Shay Tsur (Bank of Israel)
    Abstract: This paper describes the project of developing a long-term growth model to be used by the staff of the Bank of Israel. The purpose of the model is to forecast GDP growth over a horizon of approximately 50 years given various assumptions, and to evaluate how different exogenous developments, or policy steps, are expected to affect the long-run growth rate. The model is composed of five distinct blocks, each focused on a different factor of production or productivity. The blocks draw on different modeling approaches along the trade off between theoretical, detailed and empirical advantages. The baseline forecast indicates that the future growth rate of GDP and GDP per capita are expected to be lower than historical averages, mainly due to future demographic developments and the exhaustion of significant growth drivers that operated in the past.​
    Date: 2019–03
  23. By: Mark Setterfield (Department of Economics, New School for Social Research); Joana David Avritzer (Department of Economics, New School for Social Research)
    Abstract: Kaleckians describe a normal rate of capacity utilization that is subject to hysteresis effects. This means that the normal rate varies directly with the actual rate of capacity utilization, ensuring that steady-state equilibrium conditions in the Kaleckian model are fully adjusted (the actual and normal rates of capacity utilization are equalized) but without this last condition implying that the rate of capacity utilization is constant in the long run. The relationship between distribution and growth unique to the Kaleckian model is thus preserved. The hysteresis mechanism has been criticized from various quarters, however, these criticisms focusing on its alleged lack of behavioural foundations. This paper shows that consistent with the stylized facts, variation in the normal rate of capacity utilization in response to variation in the actual capacity utilization rate can be derived from the links between both variables and the volatility of the macroeconomic environment - volatility, in the presence of fundamental uncertainty, being an important reason why firms deliberately under-utilize capacity (even in the long run) in the first place. The result is an empirically-grounded behavioural foundation for hysteresis in the normal rate of capacity utilization.
    Keywords: Normal rate of capacity utilization, Harrodian instability, hysteresis, Kaleckian growth theory
    JEL: E11 E12 O41
    Date: 2019–06
  24. By: Nuvolari, Alessandro (Institute of Economics, Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, Pisa); Russo, Emanuele (Institute of Economics, Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, Pisa)
    Abstract: Along the development path, countries experience large transformations in their economic structure as productive resources move towards different economic activities. “Modern economic growth” is also associated with a self-sustained process of technical change which leads to the emergence of new products and sectors characterized by different scopes for productivity gains and demand growth. In this paper we study the interactions between structural change and technological progress from a long-term perspective. We first analyze the secular patterns of structural change across agriculture, manufacturing and services using historical data in the attempt to test some broad conjectures concerning sectoral reallocations at different stages of development (i.e. the so-called Petty-Clark law) and discuss the specific role of manufacturing as an engine of growth. Second, we provide an overview of the literature on sectoral innovation patterns as well as of recent evidence linking structural transformations and sector-specific technological opportunities to aggregate productivity growth. In the final part we present productivity decompositions using a sectoral innovation taxonomy to study the contribution of different groups of activities characterized by heterogeneous innovation patterns. Our results suggest that structural change towards knowledge-intensive activities provides a source of productivity growth in both developing and advanced countries. In turn, this points at the need for a more disaggregated analysis of structural change to capture the diversity in the rate and direction of technical progress across sectors.
    Keywords: Long-run development, structural change, technical change, productivity growth
    JEL: O10 O14 O30
    Date: 2019–06–12

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