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on Economic Growth |
| By: | Alesina, Alberto; Giuliano, Paola; Nunn, Nathan |
| Abstract: | We study the historical origins of cross-country differences in the male-to-female sex ratio. Our analysis focuses on the use of the plough in traditional agriculture. In societies that did not use the plough, women tended to participate in agriculture as actively as men. By contrast, in societies that used the plough, men specialized in agricultural work, due to the physical strength needed to pull the plough or control the animal that pulls it. We hypothesize that this difference caused plough-using societies to value boys more than girls. Today, this belief is reflected in male-biased sex ratios, which arise due to sex-selective abortion or infanticide, or gender-differences in access to family resources, which results in higher mortality rates for girls. Testing this hypothesis, we show that descendants of societies that traditionally practiced plough agriculture today have higher average male-to-female sex ratios. We find that this effect systematically increases in magnitude and statistical significance as one looks at older cohorts. Estimates using instrumental variables confirm our findings from multivariate OLS analysis. |
| Keywords: | Cultural Transmission; gender roles; historical persistence; Sex ratio |
| JEL: | J1 N00 Z1 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12856&r=gro |
| By: | Frédéric Docquier (UCL IRES - Institut de recherches économiques et sociales - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain, FNRS - Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique [Bruxelles], FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International); Riccardo Turati (UCL IRES - Institut de recherches économiques et sociales - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain); Jérome Valette (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Chrysovalantis Vasilakis (Bangor Business School - forTANK) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically revisits the impact of birthplace diversity on economic growth. We use panel data on US states over the 1960-2010 period. This rich data set allows us to better deal with endogeneity issues and to conduct a large set of robustness checks. Our results suggest that diversity among college-educated immigrants positively affects economic growth. We provide converging evidence pointing at the existence of skill complementarities between workers trained in different countries. These synergies result in better labor market outcomes for native workers and in higher productivity in the R&D sector. The gains from diversity are maximized when immigrants originate from economically or culturally distant countries (but not both), and when they acquired part of their secondary education abroad and their college education in the US. Overall, a 10% increase in high-skilled diversity raises GDP per capita by about 6%. On the contrary, low-skilled diversity has insignificant effects. |
| Keywords: | Immigration,Culture,Birthplace Diversity,Growth |
| Date: | 2018–03–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01743780&r=gro |
| By: | Leandro Prados de la Escosura (Universidad Carlos III and CEPR); Carlos Santiago-Caballero (Universidad Carlos III) |
| Abstract: | The Napoleonic Wars had dramatic consequences for Spain’s economy. The Peninsular War had higher demographic impact than any other military conflict, including civil wars, in the modern era. Farmers suffered confiscation of their crops and destruction of their main capital asset, livestock. The shrinking demand, the disruption of international and domestic trade, and the shortage of inputs hampered industry and services. The loss of the American colonies, a by-product of the French invasion, seriously harmed absolutism. In the long run, however, the Napoleonic Wars triggered the dismantling of Ancien Régime institutions and interest groups. Freed from their constraints, the country started a long and painful transition towards the liberal society. The Napoleonic Wars may be deemed, then, a watershed in Spanish history. |
| Keywords: | Napoleonic Wars, Peninsular War, Spain, Institutional Change, Growth |
| JEL: | E02 F54 N13 N43 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0130&r=gro |
| By: | Michal Burzynski (CREA - Center for Research in Economic Analysis - Uni.lu - Université du Luxembourg); Christoph Deuster (UCL IRES - Institut de recherches économiques et sociales - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain, UNINOVA - Universidade Nova de Lisboa); Frédéric Docquier (UCL IRES - Institut de recherches économiques et sociales - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain, FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International, FNRS - Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique [Bruxelles]) |
| Abstract: | This paper characterizes the recent evolution of the geographic distribution of talent, and studies its implications for development inequality. Assuming the continuation of recent educational and immigration policies, it produces integrated projections of income, population, urbanization and human capital for the 21st century. To do so, we develop and parameterize a two-sector, two-class, world economy model that endogenizes education decisions, population growth, labor mobility, and income disparities across countries and across regions/sectors (agriculture vs. nonagriculture). We find that the geography of talent matters for global inequality, whatever the size of technological externalities. Low access to education and the sectoral allocation of talent have substantial impacts on inequality, while the effect of international migration is small. We conclude that policies targeting access to all levels of education and sustainable urban development are vital to reduce demographic pressures and global inequality in the long term. |
| Keywords: | inequality,growth,Human capital,migration,urbanization |
| Date: | 2018–03–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01743751&r=gro |
| By: | Konstantin Büchel; Stephan Kyburz |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of railway access on population growth in 19th century Switzerland. Our analysis is based on geo-referenced railway network information and an inconsequential units IV approach. Gaining direct railway access increased annual population growth by 0.4 percentage points, while municipalities in close vicinity but no direct access (i.e. 2{10 km distance) experienced a growth slump of similar magnitude. We interpret these findings as evidence of highly localised displacement effects related to railway connections. |
| Keywords: | railway access, population growth, displacement effects |
| JEL: | N33 N73 O18 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1538&r=gro |
| By: | Colacito, Riccardo (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill); Hoffman, Bridget (Inter-American Development Bank); Phan, Toan (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond) |
| Abstract: | We document that seasonal temperatures have significant and systematic effects on the U.S. economy, both at the aggregate level and across a wide cross-section of economic sectors. This effect is particularly strong for the summer: a 1 degree F increase in the average summer temperature is associated with a reduction in the annual growth rate of state-level output of 0.15 to 0.25 percentage points. We combine our estimates with projected increases in seasonal temperatures and find that rising temperatures could reduce U.S. economic growth by up to one-third over the next century. |
| Keywords: | economic growth; temperature; climate change |
| JEL: | O44 Q51 Q59 R11 |
| Date: | 2018–04–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedrwp:18-09&r=gro |
| By: | Growiec, Jakub; PeterMcAdam; Muck, Jakub |
| Abstract: | Labor’s share of income has attracted interest in recent years reflecting its apparent decline. These falls, witnessed across many countries, are usually deemed undesirable. Any such assertion, however, begs the question of what is the socially optimal labor share. We address this question using a micro-founded endogenous growth model calibrated on US data. We find that in our central calibration the socially optimal labor share is 17% (11 pp) above the decentralized equilibrium, calibrated to match the average observed in history. We also study the dependence of both long-run growth equilibria on model parameters and relate our results to Piketty’s “laws of Capitalism”. Finally, we demonstrate that cyclical movements in factor income shares are socially optimal and that the decentralized equilibrium typically does not generate excess volatility. JEL Classification: O33, O41 |
| Keywords: | decentralized allocation, endogenous growth, factor augmenting endogenous technical change, labor income share, social optimum |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20182142&r=gro |
| By: | Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, Timo Boppart & Simon Bunel |
| Abstract: | Statistical agencies typically impute inflation for disappearing products based on surviving products, which may result in overstated inflation and understated growth. This paper uses the theory and methodology developed by Aghion et al. (2017) to quantify in the case of France how much of productivity growth is missed by statistical offices because of this. Using the census of plants in France, we find that from 2004 to 2015, about 0.5 percentage point of real output growth per year is not taken into account, which is about the same as what was found in the U.S. While this result suggests that missing growth from creative destruction could structurally be the same in different countries, we show that they in fact hide different underlying establishment and firm's lifecycle dynamics in the two countries. |
| Keywords: | Growth, Price measurement, Firm dynamic, Lifecycle of plants |
| JEL: | O4 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:676&r=gro |
| By: | Miranda, Karen; Manjón Antolín, Miguel C.; Martínez Ibáñez, Oscar |
| Abstract: | We present a growth model with interdependencies in the heterogeneous technological progress, physical capital and stock of knowledge that yields a growth-initial equation that can be taken to the data. We then use data on EU-NUTS2 regions and a correlated random effects specifi cation to estimate the resulting spatial Durbin dynamic panel model with spatially weighted individual effects. QML estimates support our model against simpler alternatives that impose a homogeneous technology and limit the sources of spatial externalities. Also, our results indicate that rich regions tend to have higher \unobserved productivity" and are likely to stay rich because of the strong time and spatial dependence of the GDP per capita. Poor regions, on the other hand, tend to enjoy \unobserved productivity" spillovers but are like to stay poor unless they increase their saving rates. Keywords: correlated random effects, Durbin model, economic growth, spatial panel data. JEL Classifi cation: C23, O47 |
| Keywords: | Anàlisi de dades de panel, Creixement econòmic, 33 - Economia, |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:urv:wpaper:2072/307363&r=gro |
| By: | Norman Loayza; Amine Ouazad; Romain Rancière |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the evolving literature that links financial development, financial crises, and economic growth in the past 20 years. The initial disconnect—with one literature focusing on the effect of financial deepening on long-run growth and another studying its impact on volatility and crisis—has given way to a more nuanced approach that analyzes the two phenomena in an integrated framework. The main finding of this literature is that financial deepening leads to a trade-off between higher economic growth and higher crisis risk; and its main conclusion is that, for at least middle-income countries, the positive growth effects outweigh the negative crisis risk impact. This balanced view has been revisited recently for advanced economies, where an emerging and controversial literature supports the notion of "too much finance," suggesting that there might be a threshold beyond which financial depth becomes detrimental for economic growth by crowding out other productive activities and misallocating resources. Nevertheless, the growth/crisis trade-off is alive and strong for a large share of the world economy. Recognizing the intrinsic trade-offs of financial development can provide a useful framework to design policies targeting financial deepening, diversity, and inclusion. In particular, acknowledging the trade-offs can highlight the need for complementary policies to mitigate the risks, from financial macroprudential policies to monetary policy frameworks that monitor the growth of credit and asset prices. |
| JEL: | G01 G21 O0 O4 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24474&r=gro |
| By: | Simplice Asongu (Yaoundé/Cameroun); Nicholas Odhiambo (Pretoria, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the evolution of fast emerging economies of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China & South Africa) and MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria & Turkey) countries, by assessing growth determinants throughout the conditional distributions of the growth rate and real GDP output for the period 2001-2011. An instrumenal variable (IV) quantile regression approach is complemented with Two-Stage-Least Squares and IV Least Absolute Deviations. We find that the highest rates of growth of real GDP per head, among the nine countries of this study, corresponded to China, India, Nigeria, Indonesia and Turkey, but the highest increases in real GDP per capita corresponded, in descending order, to Turkey China, Brazil, South Africa and India. This study analyzes the impacts of several indicators on the increase of the rate of growth of real GDP and on the logarithm of the real GDP. We analyze several limitations of the methodology, related with the selection of the explained and the explanatory variables, the effect of missing variables, and the particular problems of some indicators. Our results show that Net Foreign Direct Investment, Natural Resources, and Political Stability have a positive and significant impact on the rate of growth of real GDP or on real GDP. |
| Keywords: | Economic Growth; Emerging countries; Quantile regression |
| JEL: | C52 F21 F23 O40 O50 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:18/013&r=gro |