nep-gro New Economics Papers
on Economic Growth
Issue of 2018‒04‒09
eight papers chosen by
Marc Klemp
University of Copenhagen

  1. Historical Conflict and Gender Disparities By Ramos-Toro, Diego
  2. "Decessit sine prole" - childlessness, celibacy, and survival of the richest in pre-industrial England By de la Croix, David; Schneider, Eric B.; Weisdorf, Jacob
  3. Temperature and Growth: A Panel Analysis of the United States By Riccardo Colacito; Bridget Hoffmann; Toan Phan
  4. Regional economic development in Europe, 1900-2010: a description of the patterns By Roses, Joan R.; Wolf, Nikolaus
  5. Trust and Growth Revisited By Asongu, Simplice; Kodila-Tedika, Oasis
  6. The effect of unemployment on economic growth in South Africa (1994-2016) By Makaringe, Sibusiso Clement; Khobai, Hlalefang
  7. Economic Growth, Income Distribution, and Climate Change By Armon Rezai; Lance Taylor; Duncan Foley
  8. Collateral and Development By Nicola Amendola; Lorenzo Carbonari; Leo Ferraris

  1. By: Ramos-Toro, Diego
    Abstract: This paper establishes the detrimental effect of historical conflict on contemporary gender disparities. Such effects appear to be absent when focusing on female labor participation, revealing that long-run determinants of women’s positioning do not opperate solely through labor outcomes. Further, a historical compilation of Mexican conflicts was digitized and geo-referenced to establish the persistence of such results at a subnational level. Causal estimates are achieved at this level by exploiting exogenous changes introduced by the Columbian exchange and by long-run reductions in precipitation. Finally, the document examines gender views of US respondents and of second-generation migrants in Europe to show that culture constiutes a mechanism through which gender biases emerge and consolidate.
    Keywords: Historical conflict, Gender Disparities, Female Labor Force Participation
    JEL: J16 N30 Z10
    Date: 2018–03
  2. By: de la Croix, David; Schneider, Eric B.; Weisdorf, Jacob
    Abstract: In explaining England's early industrial development, previous research has highlighted that wealthy pre-industrial elites had more surviving offspring than their poorer counter- parts. Thus, entrepreneurial traits spread and helped England grow rich. We contest this view, showing that lowerclass reproduction rates were no different from the elites when accounting for singleness and childlessness. Elites married less and were more often childless. Many died without descendants (decessit sine prole). We find that the middle classes had the highest reproduction and argue that this advantage was instrumental to England's economic success because the middle class invested most strongly in human capital.
    Keywords: fertility; marriage; childlessness; European marriage pattern; Industrial Revolution; evolutionary advantage; social class
    JEL: J12 J13 N33
    Date: 2018–02
  3. By: Riccardo Colacito; Bridget Hoffmann; Toan Phan
    Abstract: This paper documents that seasonal temperatures have significant and systematic effects on the U.S. economy, both at the aggregate level and across a wide crosssection of economic sectors. This effect is particularly strong for the summer: an increase of 1°F in the average summer temperature is associated with a reduction in the annual growth rate of state-level output of 0:15 to 0:25 percentage points. When these estimates are combined with projected increases in seasonal temperatures it is found that a reduction of U.S. economic growth by up to one third could occur over the next century.
    Keywords: Climate Change, Labor Productivity Growth, Annual Growth Rate, Economic Impact Analysis, Economic Growth, Environmental economics, Insurance companies, Retail, Wholesale, Real Estate, Food Services, economic impact, economic growth, labor productivity
    JEL: Q59 R11 O51 O44
    Date: 2016–05
  4. By: Roses, Joan R.; Wolf, Nikolaus
    Abstract: We provide the first long-run dataset of regional employment structures and regional GDP and GDP per capita in 1990 international dollars, stretching over more than 100 years. These data allow us to compare regions over time, among each other, and to other parts of the world. After some brief notes on methodology we describe the basic patterns in the data in terms of some key dimensions: variation in the density of population and economic activity, the spread of industry and services and the declining role of agriculture, and changes in the levels of GDP and GDP per capita. We next discuss patterns of convergence and divergence over time and their explanations in terms of short-run adjustment and long-run fundamentals. Also, we document for the first time a secular decrease in spatial coherence from 1900 to 2010. We find a U-shaped development in geographic concentration and regional income inequality, similar to the finding of a U-shaped pattern of personal income inequality.
    Keywords: regional inequality; Europe; long-run
    JEL: D31 N1 N9 R1
    Date: 2018–03
  5. By: Asongu, Simplice; Kodila-Tedika, Oasis
    Abstract: The paper extends Breggren et al. (2008, EE) on ‘trust and growth: a shaky relationship” by incorporating recent developments in the trust-growth literature and using a robust methodological underpinning that accounts for the presence of outliers. The empirical evidence is based on 63 countries. Two main findings are established. First, the substantially documented positive trust-growth nexus is broadly confirmed. Second, when initial levels of growth come into play in determining the relationship, only the 25th quartile and 90th decile confirm the positive nexus. The results suggest that the trust-growth nexus cannot be generalized for all countries as some previous studies have concluded. Accordingly, trust-growth policies should be contingent on existing levels of development and tailored differently across rich and poor countries.
    Keywords: Trust; Growth; Conditional Effects
    JEL: A13 O40 Z13
    Date: 2017–01
  6. By: Makaringe, Sibusiso Clement; Khobai, Hlalefang
    Abstract: This study sought to investigate the trends and impact of unemployment on economic growth in South Africa using quarterly data over the period 1994Q1 to 2016Q4. The Auto Regressive Distribution Lag (ARDL) bounds test approach is applied to determine the existence of the long run linkage among the variables. The results from the ARDL model suggest that there is a long run relationship between unemployment and economic growth. The empirical results obtained confirmed that there is a negative relationship between unemployment and economic growth both in the long and short run.
    Keywords: Unemployment, Labour Force, Economic Growth, Co-integration, South Africa, Autoregressive Distribution Lag Model (ARDL).
    JEL: A13 B22 C30 H30
    Date: 2018–03–19
  7. By: Armon Rezai; Lance Taylor; Duncan Foley (Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA))
    Abstract: This paper explores how climate damage affects the long-run evolution of the economy. Climate change induced by greenhouse gas lowers profitability, reducing investment and cutting output in the short and long runs. Short-run employment falls due to deficient demand. In the long run, productivity growth is slower, lowering potential income levels. Climate policy can increase incomes and employment in the short and long runs, while a continuation of business-as-usual leads to a dystopian income distribution with affluence for few and high levels of unemployment for the rest.
    Keywords: climate change, economic growth, integrated assessment, demand and distribution, energy productivity, unemployment
    JEL: H21 Q51 Q54
    Date: 2017–10
  8. By: Nicola Amendola (CEIS & DEF, University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Lorenzo Carbonari (CEIS & DEF, University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Leo Ferraris (CEIS & DEF, University of Rome "Tor Vergata")
    Abstract: This paper presents a model economy with endogenous credit constraints and endogenous growth, in which agents face a trade-off between investing resources to improve the pledgeability of collateral assets and the accumulation of human capital. The model generates both growth miracles and stagnant economies.
    Keywords: Credit,Collateral,Human Capital,Growth.
    JEL: G0 O1 O40
    Date: 2018–02–20

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