nep-gro New Economics Papers
on Economic Growth
Issue of 2017‒05‒21
nine papers chosen by
Marc Klemp
Brown University

  1. Development, fertility and childbearing age: A unified growth theory By Hippolyte D'Albis; Angela Greulich; Grégory Ponthière
  2. Up from Slavery? African American Intergenerational Economic Mobility Since 1880 By William J. Collins; Marianne H. Wanamaker
  3. The Role of Universities in Economic Development of Russian Regions By Alexey A. Egorov; Oleg V. Leshukov; Alexander D. Gromov
  4. The biofuel-development nexus: A meta-analysis By Johanna Choumert; Pascale Combes Motel; Charlain Guegang Djimeli
  5. Non-linearities in the Relationship between Finance and Growth By Ugo Panizza
  6. Does Trade Openness Matter for Economic Growth in the CEE Countries? By Njindan Iyke, Bernard
  7. Growth Effects of Annuities and Government Transfers in Perpetual Youth Models By Miyoshi, Yoshiyuki; Toda, Alexis Akira
  8. Automation, New Technology, and Non-Homothetic Preferences By Clemens Struck; Adnan Velic
  9. Prices of High-Tech Products, Mismeasurement, and Pace of Innovation By David Byrne; Stephen Oliner; Daniel Sichel

  1. By: Hippolyte D'Albis (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Angela Greulich (PSE - Paris School of Economics, INED - Institut national d'études démographiques, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Grégory Ponthière (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12)
    Abstract: During the last two centuries, fertility has exhibited, in industrialized economies, two distinct trends: the cohort total fertility rate follows a decreasing pattern, while the cohort average age at motherhood exhibits a U-shaped pattern. This paper proposes a unified growth theory aimed at rationalizing those two demographic stylized facts. We develop a three-period OLG model with two periods of fertility, and show how a traditional economy, where individuals do not invest in higher education, and where income rises push towards advancing births, can progressively converge towards a modern economy, where individuals invest in higher education, and where income rises encourage postponing births. Our findings are illustrated numerically by replicating the dynamics of the quantum and the tempo of births for Swedish cohorts born between 1876 and 1966.
    Keywords: fertility,childbearing age,births postponement,human capital,regime shift
    Date: 2017–02
  2. By: William J. Collins; Marianne H. Wanamaker
    Abstract: We document the intergenerational mobility of black and white American men from 1880 through 2000 by building new datasets to study the late 19th and early 20th century and combining them with modern data to cover the mid- to late 20th century. We find large disparities in intergenerational mobility, with white children having far better chances of escaping the bottom of the distribution than black children in every generation. This mobility gap was more important than the gap in parents’ status in proximately determining each new generation’s racial income gap. Evidence suggests that human capital disparities underpinned the mobility gap.
    JEL: J15 J62 N31 N32
    Date: 2017–05
  3. By: Alexey A. Egorov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Oleg V. Leshukov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Alexander D. Gromov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper analyses the contribution of higher education institutions (HEI) in Russia to gross regional product (GRP) growth. We explore the relationship between higher education coverage and rates of economic growth based on longitudinal economic growth models which are pooled regression, fixed effects, and regression with simultaneous fixed and spatial effects. In addition to the influence of HEI on economic growth, the model specifications also allow an investigation of the relationship between the territory accessibility of higher education and GRP growth, and the significance of higher education in regions with different structures of GRP. The main policy outcome of the paper is that universities can be considered as fully-fledged economic agents which make positive contributions to GRP growth. The development of regional higher education systems would lead to a positive effect on regional economic development
    Keywords: higher education, economic growth, spatial effects, influence on GRP, regional economic development
    JEL: I21 I23 I25
    Date: 2017
  4. By: Johanna Choumert (EDI - Economic Development Initiatives - Economic Development Initiatives); Pascale Combes Motel (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Charlain Guegang Djimeli (, DPPP/DGEPIP/MINEPAT - Direction générale de l'économie et de la programmation des investissements publics - Ministry of the Economy)
    Abstract: While the production of biofuels has expanded in recent years, findings in the literature on its impact on growth and development remain contradictory. This paper presents a meta-analysis of computable general equilibrium studies published between 2006 and 2014. Using 26 studies, we shed light on why their results differ. We investigate factors such as biofuel type, geographic area and the characteristics of models employed. Our results indicate that the outcomes of CGE simulations are sensitive to model parameters and also suggest heterogenous effects of biofuel expansion between developed / emerging countries and Sub-Saharan African countries. Our quantitative meta-analysis complements existing narrative surveys and confirms that results are sensitive to key hypotheses on essential parameters. Simulations on longer time periods and in multi-country studies lead to results that indicate higher impacts of biofuel expansion on growth and household income. Moreover, simulations with a shock in agricultural productivity indicate positive welfare gains, unlike simulations with a shock on land expansion. Lastly, we find that biodiesels lead to higher welfare gains than biofuels.
    Keywords: Development,Biofuel,Bioethanol,Biodiesel,Energy,Meta-regression,Computable General Equilibrium Model.
    Date: 2017–04–24
  5. By: Ugo Panizza (IHEID, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva)
    Abstract: This paper reviews the empirical literature on the links between ?finance and growth with a special focus on the empirical literature that has shown that the marginal contribution of fi?nancial depth to economic growth becomes negative in countries with large fi?nancial sectors (the too much fi?nance? result). It then assesses the empirical and theoretical validity of recent criticisms to this literature and concludes by discussing avenues for future research aimed at identifying the channels through which a very large ?financial sector can slow down economic growth.
    Keywords: Financial development; Finance-growth Nexus; Too much finance
    JEL: G10 O16 F36 O40
    Date: 2017–05
  6. By: Njindan Iyke, Bernard
    Abstract: This paper sets out to answer the question: Is trade openness important for economic growth in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries? The policy-oriented measures of trade openness used in earlier studies have been argued to be subjective, while the simple outcome-oriented measures only capture one aspect of trade openness, namely: countries’ share of trade. Hence, following Squalli and Wilson (2011), the paper constructs a new outcome-oriented measure of trade openness which captures a country’ share of trade, and its interaction and interconnectedness with the rest of the world. Using fixed effects regressions for 17 CEE countries over the period 1994 – 2014, the paper finds trade openness to be important for growth within the CEE countries. In particular, the results show that increases in trade openness is associated with increases in real GDP per capita growth within these countries. The results appear significantly the same after we dropped Croatia and Estonia – two historically closed economies.
    Keywords: Trade Openness; Economic Growth; CEE Countries; Panel Data
    JEL: F21 F43 O47
    Date: 2016
  7. By: Miyoshi, Yoshiyuki; Toda, Alexis Akira
    Abstract: We show that in overlapping generations endogenous growth models with uncertain lifetime, the introduction of government transfers always increases economic growth by crowding out the private annuity market and increasing accidental bequests. In particular, if the government imposes a flat-rate consumption tax (which is neutral to the consumption-saving margin), uses part of the tax revenue for unproductive purposes, and rebates the rest equally across agents as a lump-sum transfer, the economy grows faster and improves the welfare of future generations.
    Keywords: annuity, endogenous growth, overlapping generations, redistribution
    JEL: D58 E21 H20 H21 O41
    Date: 2016–05–16
  8. By: Clemens Struck (University College Dublin); Adnan Velic (Dublin Institute of Technology)
    Abstract: This paper provides a microfoundation of the neoclassical growth theory. To rationalize a substantial share of labor in income despite ongoing automation of tasks, we present a simple model in which demand shifts toward goods of increasing sophistication along a vertically differentiated production structure. Automation of more advanced goods requires increasingly sophisticated capital which remains scarce along the growth path. This is why labor maintains a substantial share in income independent of core parameter assumptions. While our model features an entirely different mechanism, we show that its aggregate representation is the one of a neoclassical model with labor-augmenting technical change.
    Keywords: Uzawa’s theorem, automation, goods quality, structural change, reallocations, growth, non-homothetic preferences, hierarchical demand
    JEL: E23 E25 J24 O14 O33
    Date: 2017–05
  9. By: David Byrne; Stephen Oliner; Daniel Sichel
    Abstract: Two recent papers have made compelling cases that mismeasurement of prices of high tech products cannot explain the slow pace of labor productivity growth that has prevailed since the mid-2000s. Does that result indicate that mismeasurement of high-tech products has limited implications for patterns of economic growth? The answer in this paper is “no.” We demonstrate that the understatement of price declines for high-tech products in official measures has a dramatic effect on the pattern of MFP growth across sectors. In particular, we show that correcting this mismeasurement implies faster MFP growth in high-tech sectors and slower MFP advance outside the high-tech sector. If MFP growth is taken as a rough proxy for the pace of innovation, our results suggest that innovation in the tech sector has been more rapid than the rate that would be inferred from official statistics (and less rapid outside high-tech). These results deepen the productivity puzzle. If the pace of innovation in high-tech sectors has been more rapid than indicated by official statistics, then it is perhaps even more puzzling that overall labor productivity growth has been so sluggish in recent years.
    JEL: E01 E22 E24 L63 L86 O3 O33 O4 O41
    Date: 2017–04

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