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on Economic Growth |
| By: | Besley, Timothy J.; Raynal-Querol, Marta |
| Abstract: | Hereditary leadership has been an important feature of the political landscape throughout history. This paper argues that hereditary leadership is like a relational contract which improves policy incentives. We assemble a unique dataset on leaders between 1874 and 2004 in which we classify them as hereditary leaders based on their family history. The core empirical finding is that economic growth is higher in polities with hereditary leaders but only if executive constraints are weak. Moreover, this holds across of a range of specifications. The finding is also mirrored in policy outcomes which affect growth. In addition, we find that hereditary leadership is more likely to come to an end when the growth performance under the incumbent leader is poor. |
| Keywords: | growth; Hereditary Institutions; political agency |
| JEL: | H11 N40 O11 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11777&r=gro |
| By: | Toman Barsbai; Hillel Rapoport; Andreas Steinmayr; Christoph Trebesch |
| Abstract: | Migration contributes to the circulation of goods, knowledge, and ideas. Using community and individual-level data from Moldova, we show that the emigration wave that started in the aftermath of the Russian crisis of 1998 strongly affected electoral outcomes and political preferences in Moldova during the following decade, eventually contributing to the fall of the last Communist government in Europe. Our results are suggestive of information transmission and cultural diffusion channels. Identification relies on the quasi-experimental context and on the differential effects arising from the fact that emigration was directed both to more democratic Western Europe and to less democratic Russia. |
| Keywords: | Emigration;Political institutions;Elections;Social networks;Information transmission;Cultural diffusion |
| JEL: | F22 D72 O1 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-26&r=gro |
| By: | Simplice Asongu (Yaoundé/Cameroun); Oasis Kodila-Tedika (University of Kinshasa) |
| Abstract: | This study assesses the relationship between tribalism (the tribalism index) and government effectiveness (per the World Bank) in 60 countries using cross-sectional data. This study finds that countries with high tribal populations generally enjoy bad governance in terms of government ineffectiveness. Government ineffectiveness and tribalism are found to mutually reinforce each other in a robust relationship. |
| Keywords: | Institutions, Tribalism, Government effectiveness |
| JEL: | D02 D73 I20 O55 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:16/052&r=gro |
| By: | G. Cette; R. Lecat; C. Ly-Marin |
| Abstract: | In this period of high uncertainty about future economic growth, we have developed a growth projection tool for 13 advanced countries and the euro area at the 2100 horizon. This high uncertainty is reflected in the debate on the possibility of a ‘secular stagnation’, fuelled by the short-lived Information and Communication Technology (ICT) shock and the current low productivity and GDP growth in advanced countries. Our projection tool allows for the modelling of technology shocks, for different speeds of regulation and education convergence, with endogenous capital growth and TFP convergence processes. We illustrate the benefits of this tool through four growth scenarios, crossing the cases of a new technology shock or secular stagnation with those of regulation and education convergence or of absence of reforms. Over the 2015-2100 period, the secular stagnation scenario assumes yearly TFP growth of 0.6% in the US, leading to a 1.5% GDP growth trend. The technology shock scenario assumes that the third technological revolution will, in the US, provide similar TFP gains to electricity during the second industrial revolution, leading to a 1.4% TFP trend, to which we add a TFP growth wave peaking in 2040, and thus to an average GDP growth rate of 3% in the US. In non-US countries, GDP growth will depend on the implementation of regulation reforms, the increase in education and on the distance to the country-specific convergence target, namely the US, as well. Over the period 2015-2060, for the euro area, Japan and the United Kingdom, benefits from regulation and education convergence would amount to a 0.1 to 0.4 pp yearly growth rate depending on the initial degree both of rigidity and the TFP distance to the US. |
| Keywords: | Growth, productivity, long-term projections, structural reforms, innovation, education |
| JEL: | E21 E22 E32 E44 E63 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:617&r=gro |
| By: | Asongu, Simplice; Nwachukwu, Jacinta |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of globalisation on inclusive human development in 51 African countries for the period 1996-2011 with particular emphasis on income levels (low income versus middle income), legal origins (English common law versus French civil law), resource wealth (oil-rich versus oil-poor), landlockedness (landlocked versus unlandlocked), religious domination (Christianity versus Islam) and political stability (stable versus unstable). The empirical evidence is based on instrumental variable panel Fixed effects and Tobit regressions in order to control for the unobserved heteroegeneity and limited range in the dependent variable. Political, economic, social and general globalisation variables are used. Six main hypotheses are investigated. The findings broadly show that middle income, English common law, oil-poor, unlandlocked, Christian-oriented and politically-stable countries are associated with comparatively higher levels of globalisation-driven inclusive human development. Puzzling findings are elucidated and policy implications discussed. |
| Keywords: | Globalisation; inequality; inclusive development; Africa |
| JEL: | D60 E60 F40 F59 O55 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:76122&r=gro |
| By: | Mutreja, Piyusha (Syracuse University); Ravikumar, B. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Sposi, Michael J. (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) |
| Abstract: | International trade in capital goods has quantitatively important effects on economic development through two channels: capital formation and aggregate TFP. We embed a multi country, multi sector Ricardian model of trade into a neoclassical growth framework. Our model matches several trade and development facts within a unified framework: the world distribution of capital goods production and trade, cross-country differences in investment rate and price of final goods, and cross-country equalization of price of capital goods. Reducing barriers to trade capital goods allows poor countries to access more efficient means of capital goods production abroad, leading to relatively higher capital output ratios. Meanwhile, poor countries can specialize more in their comparative advantage—non-capital goods production—and increase their TFP. The income gap between rich and poor countries declines by 40 percent by eliminating barriers to trade capital goods. |
| JEL: | E22 F11 O11 O4 |
| Date: | 2016–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddgw:294&r=gro |