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on Economic Growth |
| By: | Galor, Oded (Brown University); Özak, Ömer (Southern Methodist University); Sarid, Assaf (University of Haifa) |
| Abstract: | This research explores the economic causes and consequences of language structures. It advances the hypothesis and establishes empirically that variations in pre-industrial geographical characteristics that were conducive to higher return to agricultural investment, larger gender gap in agricultural productivity, and more hierarchical society, are at the root of existing cross-language variations in the presence of the future tense, grammatical gender, and politeness distinctions. Moreover, the research suggests that while language structures have largely reflected the coding of past human experience and in particular the range of ancestral cultural traits in society, they independently affected human behavior and economic outcomes. |
| Keywords: | comparative development, cultural evolution, language structure, future tense, politeness distinctions, grammatical gender, human capital, education |
| JEL: | I25 J24 O1 O10 O11 O12 O40 O43 O44 Z10 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10379&r=gro |
| By: | Casey, Gregory (Brown University); Galor, Oded (Brown University) |
| Abstract: | We provide evidence that lower fertility can simultaneously increase income per capita and lower carbon emissions, eliminating a trade-off central to most policies aimed at slowing global climate change. We estimate the effect of lower fertility on carbon emissions accounting for the fact that changes in fertility patterns affect carbon emissions through three channels: total population, the age structure of the population, and economic output. Our analysis proceeds in two steps. First, we estimate a version of the STIRPAT equation on an unbalanced yearly panel of cross-country data from 1950-2010. We demonstrate that the coefficient on population is nearly seven times larger than the coefficient on income per capita and that this difference is statistically significant. Thus, regression results imply that 1% slower population growth could be accompanied by an increase in income per capita of nearly 7% while still lowering carbon emissions. In the second part of our analysis, we use a recently constructed economic-demographic model of Nigeria to estimate the effect of lower fertility on carbon emissions accounting for the impacts of fertility on population growth, population age structure, and income per capita. The model was constructed to estimate the effect of lower fertility on economic growth, making it well-suited for this application. We find that by 2100 C.E., moving from the medium to the low variant of the UN fertility projection leads to 35% lower yearly emissions and 15% higher income per capita. These results strongly suggest that population policies should be a part of the approach to combating global climate change. |
| Keywords: | climate change, economics, demography |
| JEL: | J11 O40 Q50 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10380&r=gro |
| By: | Joseph Gomes; Klaus Desmet; Ignacio Ortuño-Ortín |
| Abstract: | This paper theoretically analyzes and empirically investigates the importance of local interaction between individuals of different linguistic groups for the provision of public goods at the national level. Depending on whether local interaction mitigates or reinforces antagonism towards other groups, the micro-founded theory we develop predicts that a country's provision of public goods (i) decreases in its overall linguistic fractionalization, and (ii) either increases or decreases in how much individuals locally learn about other groups. After constructing a 5 km by 5 km geographic dataset on language use for 223 countries, we compute measures of overall fractionalization and local learning, and investigate their relation to public good provision at the country level. While overall fractionalization worsens outcomes, we find a positive causal relation between local learning and public goods. Local mixing therefore mitigates the negative impact of a country's overall linguistic fractionalization. An IV strategy shows that this result is not driven by the possible endogenous spatial distribution of language speakers within countries. |
| JEL: | H4 H5 J15 D7 D74 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nva:unnvaa:wp07-2016&r=gro |
| By: | Jong-Wha Lee |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the determinants of fertility in the long run, using a newly constructed panel data set consisting of fertility rates, measured as crude birth rates, infant mortality rates, per-capita income, and the educational attainment of men and women for 43 countries from 1890 to 2010 at five-year intervals. The regression results show the significant effects of per-capita income, infant mortality, educational attainment, and political development on fertility rates. A woman's educational attainment at the primary and secondary levels has a pronounced negative effect on fertility rates. On the contrary, an increase in a woman's tertiary educational attainment, with the level of a man's remaining constant, tends to raise fertility rates, indicating that highly educated women can have a better environment for childbearing and childrearing in a society with greater gender equality. The presented research thus identifies the important role of human capital accumulation, especially attained by women, in demographic transition through fertility decisions for over a century of human history. |
| Keywords: | Economic Development, Education, Female Education, Fertility, Gender Inequality |
| JEL: | J13 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2016-70&r=gro |
| By: | Raouf Boucekkine (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales); Giorgio Fabbri (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales); Salvatore Federico (Università degli Studi di Siena, Dipartimento di Economia Politica e Statistica) |
| Abstract: | We design a general set-up for the study of a generic economy whose development process is entirely driven by the spatio-temporal dynamics of capital accumulation. It allows to take into account spatial heterogeneities in technological level and population distribution. We solve analytically, via dynamic programming in infinite dimensions, the optimal control problem associated to the model, finding explicitly the optimal feedback and the value function. The expression of the optimal dynamics of the system in terms of eigenfunctions of an appropriate Sturm-Liouville problem allows to simulate the behavior of the variables and, in particular, their optimal discounted long-run spatial distribution. |
| Keywords: | dynamical spatial model,growth,agglomeration,infinite dimensional optimal control problems,Sturm-Liouville theory |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01399995&r=gro |
| By: | Frédéric DOCQUIER; Riccardo TURATI; Jérome VALETTE; Chrysovalantis VASILAKIS |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically revisits the impact of multiculturalism (as proxied by indices of birthplace diversity and polarization among immigrants, or by epidemiological terms) on the macroeconomic performance of US states over the 1960-2010 period. We test for skill-specific effects of multiculturalism, controlling for standard growth regressors and a variety of fixed effects, and accounting for the age of entry and legal status of immigrants. To identify causation, we compare various instrumentation strategies used in the existing literature. We provide converging and robust evidence of a positive and significant effect of diversity among college-educated immigrants on GDP per capita. Overall, a 10% increase in high-skilled diversity raises GDP per capita by 6.2%. On the contrary, diversity among less educated immigrants has insignificant effects. Also, we find no evidence of a quadratic effect or a contamination by economic conditions in poor countries. |
| Keywords: | Birthplace diversity, Growth. |
| JEL: | J61 F22 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdi:wpaper:1838&r=gro |
| By: | La Torre, Davide; Marsiglio, Simone; Mendivil, Franklin; Privileggi, Fabio (University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | We analyze a multi-sector growth model subject to random shocks affecting the two sector-specific production functions twofold: the evolution of both productivity and factor shares is the result of such exogenous shocks. We determine the optimal dynamics via Euler-Lagrange equations, and show how these dynamics can be described in terms of an iterated function system with probability. We also provide conditions that imply the singularity of the invariant measure associated with the fractal attractor. Numerical examples show how specific parameter configurations might generate distorted copies of the Barnsley’s fern attractor. |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uto:dipeco:201620&r=gro |
| By: | Jeong, Sangjun |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the pattern of technical change in the Korean economy from 1970 to 2013 and investigates its determinants. We use the Classical growth-distribution schedule to show that the labor-saving and capital-using pattern has predominated. For the rationale behind this Marx-biased technical change (“MBTC”), we focus on the relationship between technical change and real wage growth via the evolution of labor and capital productivity, and verify the historical direction of technical change against the rise and fall of the working class. Furthermore, we find that the deviation during the post-crisis period from the long-run trend of MBTC is not attributable to the vitality of new technological innovations, but rather the reflection of class dynamics over extracting productivity under weaker capital deepening. The results suggest that the recent deterioration of labor share and labor unions in Korea is closely associated with low incentive for technological progress, which contributes to prolonged stagnation. |
| Keywords: | growth-distribution schedule, Marx-biased technical change, labor productivity, capital productivity |
| JEL: | B51 N15 O33 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:75300&r=gro |
| By: | Janda, Karel; Torkhani, Marouan |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth and between energy consumption and greenhouse emissions for the EU countries, using time series data from 1996 to 2012 within a multivariate framework for 26 EU countries. The energy sources considered are oil consumption, natural gas consumptions, and renewable energies including biomass as a distinct part. Unit Root Tests, cointegration test, Pairwise Granger causality tests, and Error Correction Model are employed to find out the type of the causal relationship. We find out that there is in the short run, a positive unidirectional causal relationship running from oil consumption to economic growth. There is also a positive bidirectional causal relationship between renewable energies and economic growth and between greenhouse emissions and economic growth. However, there is also an unexpected negative bidirectional causal relationship between biomass consumption and gas consumption. From the greenhouse emissions perspective, we can see in the short run, a negative bidirectional causal relationship between greenhouse emissions and renewable energies, and a positive unidirectional causal relationship running from both oil consumption and biomass consumption to greenhouse emissions. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth, energy consumption, oil consumption, natural gas, renewable energies, biomass |
| JEL: | Q28 Q42 Q43 |
| Date: | 2016–12–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:75440&r=gro |
| By: | Mahmood Mahmoudzadeh; Seyyed Ali Zeytoon Nejad Moosavian |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to measure the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth and determine the share of each of the economic growth sources in the mining sector of Iran. The time period of this study is 1355-1385 of the Solar Hijri calendar (roughly overlaying with the time period of 1976-2006 of the Gregorian calendar). In this paper, the shares of total factor productivity growth (TFPG) and factors' accumulations in the economic growth of the mining sector are estimated using a neoclassical growth accounting approach. Based on the estimated restricted Cobb-Douglas production function and the results obtained from the Solow residual equation, the annual growth rates of TFP were measured for each year. According to the findings, the average annual growth rate of TFP has been 2.94% during the time period of the present study. The other findings of this study indicate that the average contributions of TFPG, labor accumulation and capital accumulation in the economic growth of the mining sector have been 56%, 23%, and 21%, respectively, during the time period of the study. As such, it can be concluded that the policy of benefiting from available factors in the mining sector together with the policy of accumulating factors have simultaneously caused the value-added growth of this sector. Therefore, considering the desired performance of the mining sector in terms of its sizable productivity growth, it can be argued that the mining sector can aid Iran's economic development plans to achieve their assigned economic objectives, one of which is to increase the share of total factor productivity growth in economic growth. |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1612.00833&r=gro |
| By: | Stern, David I.; Zha, Donglan |
| Abstract: | Though the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) was originally developed to model the ambient concentrations of pollutants, most subsequent applications have focused on pollution emissions. Yet, it seems more likely that economic growth could eventually reduce the concentrations of local pollutants than emissions. We examine the role of income, convergence, and time related factors in explaining recent changes in PM 2.5 and PM 10 particulate pollution in 50 Chinese cities using new measures of ambient air quality that the Chinese government has published only since the beginning of 2013. We use a recently developed model that relates the rate of change of pollution to the growth of the economy and other factors as well as the traditional environmental Kuznets curve model. Pollution fell sharply from 2013 to 2014. We show that economic growth, convergence, and time effects all served to lower the level of pollution. The results also demonstrate the relationship between the two modeling approaches. |
| Keywords: | Air pollution, economic growth, environmental Kuznets curve, China, Environmental Economics and Policy, O44, P28, Q53, Q56, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ancewp:249522&r=gro |
| By: | Aamer S. Abu-Qarn (BGU) |
| Keywords: | Solow growth model, country specific technology, TFP, growth accounting |
| JEL: | O4 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bgu:wpaper:1609&r=gro |
| By: | Anjum, Zeba; Burke, Paul J.; Gerlagh, Reyer; Stern, David I. |
| Abstract: | We adopt a new representation of the relationship between emissions and income using long-run growth rates. Our approach allows us to test multiple hypotheses about the drivers of per capita emissions in a single framework and avoid several of the econometric issues that have plagued previous studies. We find that for carbon dioxide emissions, scale, convergence, and resource endowment effects are statistically significant. For sulfur emissions, the scale and convergence effects are significant, there is a strong negative time effect, and non-English legal origin and higher population density are associated with more rapidly declining emissions. The environmental Kuznets effect is not statistically significant in our full sample for either carbon or sulfur. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth, decoupling, pollution, environmental Kuznets curve, convergence, Environmental Economics and Policy, Q56, O44, |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ancewp:249422&r=gro |
| By: | Stern, David I.; van Dijk, Jeremy |
| Abstract: | Though the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) was originally developed to model the ambient concentrations of pollutants, most subsequent applications focused on pollution emissions. Yet, previous research suggests that it is more likely that economic growth could eventually reduce the concentrations of local pollutants than emissions. We examine the role of income, convergence, and time related factors in explaining changes in PM2.5 pollution in a global panel of 158 countries between 1990 and 2010. We find that economic growth has positive but relatively small effects, time effects are also small but larger in wealthier and formerly centrally planned economies, and, for our main dataset, convergence effects are small and not statistically significant. There is no in-sample income turning point for regressions that include both the convergence variables and a set of control variables. |
| Keywords: | Air pollution, economic growth, environmental Kuznets curve, Environmental Economics and Policy, O44, Q53, Q56, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ancewp:249523&r=gro |