nep-gro New Economics Papers
on Economic Growth
Issue of 2016‒10‒02
five papers chosen by
Marc Klemp
Brown University

  1. Demographic Dynamics and Long-Run Development: Insights for the Secular Stagnation Debate By Cervellati, Matteo; Sunde, Uwe; Zimmermann, Klaus
  2. Rural exodus and fertility at the time of industrialization By Thomas Baudin; Robert Stelter
  3. Institutions, public debt and growth in Europe By Masuch, Klaus; Moshammer, Edmund; Pierluigi, Beatrice
  4. Endogenous Labor Share Cycles: Theory and Evidence By Jakub Growiec; Peter McAdam; Jakub Muck
  5. New trajectories of the Hungarian regional development: balanced and rush growth of territorial capital By Jóna, György

  1. By: Cervellati, Matteo; Sunde, Uwe; Zimmermann, Klaus
    Abstract: This paper takes a global, long-run perspective on the recent debate about secular stagnation, which has so far mainly focused on the short term. The analysis is motivated by observing the interplay between the economic and demographic transition that has occurred in the developed world over the past 150 years. To the extent that high growth rates in the past have partly been the consequence of singular changes during the economic and demographic transition, growth is likely to become more moderate once the transition is completed. At the same time, a similar transition is on its way in most developing countries, with profound consequences for the development prospects in these countries, but also for global comparative development. The evidence presented here suggests that long-run development dynamics have potentially important implications for the prospects of human and physical capital accumulation, the evolution of productivity and the question of secular stagnation.
    Keywords: secular stagnation, long-term development, income growth, demographic transition, Labor and Human Capital, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, C54, E10, J11, J 13, J18, N30, O10, O40,
    Date: 2016–09
  2. By: Thomas Baudin (Université de Lille, Lille Economie Management, UMR 9221 and UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)); Robert Stelter (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) and University of Rostock)
    Abstract: We propose a unified model of economic growth where people decide not only about fertility and education but also whether or not to migrate to the city or alternatively to the countryside. Using the simulated method of moments and an original set of Danish data, we calibrate our model to evaluate the relative contributions of the rural exodus and mortality reductions to economic growth and the fertility transition. We find, in line with Galor (2005), that the reduction of infant mortality has not been a major driver of the Danish economic takeoff while the rural exodus, complementing technological progress, has been a workhorse of the economic and demographic revolution of Denmark.
    Keywords: Demographic transition, Industrialization, Rural exodus, Mortality differentials, Fertility differentials
    JEL: J11 J13 O41
    Date: 2016–09–21
  3. By: Masuch, Klaus; Moshammer, Edmund; Pierluigi, Beatrice
    Abstract: This paper shows that initial cross-country institutional differences can explain to a substantial extent the relative GDP performance of European countries since 1995, after controlling for the initial level of GDP per capita and government debt. It shows that improving the quality of institutions could lead to significantly higher per capita GDP. It also shows that an initial government debt level above a threshold (e.g. 60-70%) coupled with institutional quality below the EU average tends to be associated with particularly poor subsequent real growth performance during this period. Interestingly, the detrimental effect of high debt levels seems cushioned by the presence of very sound institutions. This might be because good institutions help to alleviate the debt problem in various ways, e.g. by ensuring sufficient fiscal consolidation in the longer-run, allowing for better use of government expenditures and promoting sustainable growth, social fairness and more efficient tax administration. The results are confirmed across a large sample of countries, also including OECD countries outside Europe. The empirical findings on the importance of institutions are robust to various measures of output growth, different measures of institutional indicators, different sample sizes, different country groupings and to the inclusion of additional control variables. Overall, the results tend to support the call for structural reforms in general and reforms enhancing the efficiency of public administration and regulation, the rule of law and the fight against rent-seeking and corruption in particular. JEL Classification: O43, C23, E02, H63
    Keywords: panel estimates, public debt, public governance, quality of institutions and real growth, structural reforms
    Date: 2016–09
  4. By: Jakub Growiec; Peter McAdam; Jakub Muck
    Abstract: Based on long US time series we document a range of empirical properties of the labor's share of GDP. We identify its substantial medium-to-long run, pro-cylical swings and show that most of its variance lies beyond business-cycle frequencies. We explore the extent to which these empirical regularities can be explained by a calibrated micro-founded, nonlinear growth model with normalized CES technology and endogenous labor- and capital augmenting technical change driven by purposeful directed R&D investments. We demonstrate that dynamic macroeconomic trade-offs created by arrivals of both types of new technologies can lead to prolonged swings in the labor share (and other model variables) due to oscillatory convergence to the balanced growth path as well as emergence of limit cycles via Hopf bifurcations. Both predictions are consistent with the empirical evidence.
    Keywords: Labor income share, Endogenous cycles, Factor-augmenting endogenous technical change, R&D, CES, Normalization.
    JEL: E25 E32 O33 O41
    Date: 2016–09
  5. By: Jóna, György
    Abstract: The basic assumption of the paper is that numerous similarities exist between the patterns of economic growth and territorial capital growth. The rush economic growth and rush growth of territorial capital are compared empirically at Hungarian micro-regional level from 2004 until 2010. After normalizing the dataset, a very novel spatial econometric method is applied, called a penalty for bottleneck. The results show that the constant rush growth of territorial capital is as harmful as economic recession. On the other hand, the decrease of infrastructural and social capital caused the rush growth of territorial capital in this period. Moreover, the key findings of two case studies suggest that the balanced growth of territorial capital will be created by the falling social inequalities and increasing infrastructural capital.
    Keywords: territorial capital, rush growth, balanced development, endogenous assets
    JEL: R00 R10 R11 R12 R13
    Date: 2015–06

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