nep-gro New Economics Papers
on Economic Growth
Issue of 2016‒02‒23
nine papers chosen by
Marc Klemp
Brown University

  1. Population Diversity, Division of Labor and the Emergence of Trade and State By Depetris-Chauvin, Emilio; Özak, Ömer
  2. International Evidence on Time-Variation in Trend Labor Productivity Growth By Philipp Wegmueller
  3. Revisiting the role of the resource curse in shaping institutions and growth By Murshed, S.M.; Badiuzzaman, M.; Pulok, M.H.
  4. Short and long-term effects of unemployment on fertility By Janet Currie; Hannes Schwandt
  5. Trust and Quality of Growth: A Note By Simplice Asongu; Rangan Gupta
  6. Poverty among ethnic minorities: transition process, inequality and economic growth By Bui, Tuan; Nguyen, Cuong; Pham, Phuong
  7. Investor Protections and Economic Growth By Jamal Ibrahim Haidar
  8. Immigration and Economic Growth in the OECD Countries 1986-2006 By Ekrame Boubtane; Jean-Christophe Dumont; C. Rault
  9. Stocks and GDP in the long run By Alexius, Annika; Spång, Daniel

  1. By: Depetris-Chauvin, Emilio; Özak, Ömer
    Abstract: This research explores the emergence and prevalence of economic specialization and trade in pre-modern societies. It advances the hypothesis, and establishes empirically that population diversity had a positive causal effect on economic specialization and trade. Based on a novel ethnic level dataset combining geocoded ethnographic and genetic data, this research exploits the exogenous variation in population diversity generated by the ``Out-of-Africa'' migration of anatomically modern humans to causally establish the positive effect of population diversity on economic specialization and the emergence of trade-related institutions, which, in turn, facilitated the historical formation of states. Additionally, it provides suggestive evidence that regions historically inhabited by pre-modern societies with high levels of economic specialization have a larger occupational heterogeneity and are more developed today.
    Keywords: Economic Specialization, Division of Labor, Trade, State Formation, Population Diversity, Economic Development, Population Heterogeneity, Genetic Diversity, Diversity, Emergence of State, Persistence, Out of Africa
    JEL: D74 F1 N0 N4 O1 O4 Z10
    Date: 2015–09
  2. By: Philipp Wegmueller
    Abstract: This paper provides international evidence on time-variation in trend productivity growth, based on the dataset for hours worked constructed by Ohanian & Raffo (2012). Applying both the endogenous break tests of Bai & Perron (1998, 2003) and the Stock & Watson (1996, 1998) TVP-MUB methodology, substantial evidence of time-variation in trend productivity growth is detected for most countries. For either Japan, or countries belonging to the Eurozone, evidence points towards a significant growth decline over the last several decades. Weaker evidence is reported for the United States, for which the 1990’s productivity acceleration is estimated to have been overall mild, and of a temporary nature.
    Keywords: Labor productivity; structural break tests; time-varying parameters; median-unbiased estimation; bootstrapping; Monte Carlo integration
    JEL: E30
    Date: 2015–02
  3. By: Murshed, S.M.; Badiuzzaman, M.; Pulok, M.H.
    Abstract: This paper examines the effect of natural resource dependence on growth in a cross-country setting during 1970 to 2010, first accounting for the effect of resource export dependence on institutional development. We employ several political and governance indicators, numerous econometric techniques on two separate panels, including one post-cold war. Our findings suggest there is a resource curse adversely effecting growth via institutional deterioration in the longer term (1970-2010), but recently (1995-2012) there is a reversal of this adverse effect on some institutions. Moreover, certain institutions matter more for growth, including governance and constraints on the executive relative to democracy.
    Keywords: resource dependence, growth, institutions
    JEL: O13 O40 Q33
    Date: 2015–02–27
  4. By: Janet Currie; Hannes Schwandt
    Abstract: Scholars have been examining the relationship between fertility and unemployment for more than a century. Most studies find that fertility falls with unemployment in the short run, but it is not known whether these negative effects persist since women may simply postpone child bearing to better economics times. Using over 140 million U.S. birth records for the period 1975 to 2010, we analyze both the short and long-run effects of unemployment on fertility. We follow fixed cohorts of U.S. born women defined by their own state and year of birth, and relate their fertility to the unemployment rate experienced by each cohort at different ages. We focus on conceptions that result in a live birth. We find that women in their early 20s are most affected by high unemployment rates in the short-run and that the negative effects on fertility grow over time. A one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate experienced between the ages of 20 and 24 reduces the short-run fertility of women in this age range by 6 conceptions per 1,000 women. When we follow these women to age 40, we find that a one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate experienced at 20 to 24 leads to an overall loss of 14.2 conceptions. This long-run effect is driven largely by women who remain childless and thus do not have either first births or higher order births.
    Keywords: fertility; unemployment
    JEL: J11 J12 J13 J6
    Date: 2015–11
  5. By: Simplice Asongu (Yaoundé/Cameroun); Rangan Gupta (University of Pretoria, South Africa)
    Abstract: The transition from Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has substantially shifted the policy debate from growth to inclusive growth. In this short note, we revisit the trust-growth nexus by exploiting a dataset on quality of growth (QG), recently made available to the scientific community. The empirical evidence is based on interactive contemporary and non-contemporary quantile regressions. Inequality and human development modifying variables are used as additional controls. The findings broadly support the positive role of trust in QG. In addition, relatively high thresholds of inequality are needed to change this positive trust-QG nexus in some distributions.
    Keywords: Trust; Inclusive Growth; Conditional Effects
    JEL: A13 I30 O40 Z13
    Date: 2015–06
  6. By: Bui, Tuan; Nguyen, Cuong; Pham, Phuong
    Abstract: This paper investigates the process of reducing poverty in ethnic minority households. Using two recent Vietnam household surveys, we find that ethnic minority households are more likely to be persistently poor and less likely to be persistently non-poor than ethnic majority households. The within-group component generated by the variation in income within each ethnicity group explains more than 90 percent of the change in total inequality. Income redistribution plays an important role in decreasing the poverty gap and decreasing poverty severity. Different ethnic groups have different poverty patterns, which should be noted when designing policies to alleviate poverty and inequality.
    Keywords: Ethnic minority; household income; inequality; poverty; decomposition
    JEL: D1 D6
    Date: 2015–12–25
  7. By: Jamal Ibrahim Haidar
    Abstract: Using objective measures of investor protections in 170 countries, I establish that the level of investor protection matters for cross-country differences in GDP growth: countries with stronger protections tend to grow faster than those with poor investor protections.
  8. By: Ekrame Boubtane (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jean-Christophe Dumont (OECD - Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development); C. Rault (LEO - LEO - UO - Université d'Orléans)
    Abstract: This paper offers a reappraisal of the impact of migration on economic growth for 22 OECD countries between 1986-2006 and relies on a unique data set we compiled that allows us to distinguish net migration of the native - and foreign - born populations by skill level. Specifically, after introducing migration in an augmented Solow-Swan model, we estimate a dynamic panel model using a system of generalized method of moments (SYS-GMM) to address the risk of endogeneity bias in the migration variables. Two important findings emerge from our analysis. First, there exists a positive impact of migrants' human capital on GDP per capita, and second, a permanent increase in migration flows has a positive effect on GDP per worker. Moreover, the growth impact of immigration is high even in countries that have non-selective migration policies.
    Keywords: Immigration , Growth , Human capital , Generalized Methods of Moments
    Date: 2016–01–07
  9. By: Alexius, Annika (Dept. of Economics, Stockholm University); Spång, Daniel (The Fourth Swedish National Pension Fund)
    Abstract: Previous studies have documented long run equilibrium relationships between e.g. stock prices and labour income or dividends and consumption. In general equilibrium, output, consumption, labour income, stock prices, and dividends are endogenous variables that are determined by the same stochastic productivity trend. We show that stock prices are cointegrated with domestic and foreign output in the G7 countries, which arguably is a more fundamental relationship than the connection between consumtion and dividends.
    Keywords: Stock prices; GDP; Long run risks; Cointegration
    JEL: E44 G12
    Date: 2015–06–26

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