nep-gro New Economics Papers
on Economic Growth
Issue of 2015‒10‒25
ten papers chosen by
Marc Klemp
Brown University

  1. Slavery, Path Dependence, and Development: Evidence from the Georgia Experiment By Goodspeed, Tyler
  2. Innovation Allocation, Knowledge Composition and Long-Run Growth By Nan Li; Jie Cai
  3. Modernization, Social Identity, and Ethnic Conflict By Yuki, Kazuhiro
  4. Spatial Growth with Exogenous Saving Rates By Anastasios Xepapadeas; Athanasios Yannacopoulos
  5. Connections between women`s age at marriage and social and economic development By Silvana Maubrigades
  6. Growth, Slowdowns, and Recoveries By Howard Kung; Francesco Bianchi
  7. Drivers of Growth in Fast Emerging Economies: A Dynamic Instrumental Quantile Approach By Asongu, Simplice
  8. The Role of Research and Development in Economic Growth: A Review By Khan, Jangraiz
  9. Determinants of Growth in Fast Developing Countries: Evidence from Bundling and Unbundling Institutions By Asongu, Simplice
  10. Mathematics of Predicting Growth By Ron W Nielsen

  1. By: Goodspeed, Tyler
    Abstract: From 1735 to 1751, the Board of Trustees of the Province of Georgia imposed the only ban on slavery among the North American colonies. Exploiting the historical boundary between the 88 counties of Trustee Georgia and the 71 counties that were appended to the colony after 1751, I analyze the effects of this initial institutional difference on subsequent differences in slave dependence, land inequality, income, and poverty. I find that counties that had been covered by the initial Trustee ban subsequently had lower slave population density, fewer farms holding more than 10 slaves, and higher income and lower poverty rates today. I further find that while counties affected by the ban did not have significant differences in pre-Civil War land inequality, productivity, industrial development, or educational investment, their economic output was significantly more diversified and less reliant upon the production of cash crops. Finally, I demonstrate that controlling for pre-war output diversification significantly reduces the estimated relationship between Trusteeship and current income. Results therefore suggest that the effects of initial differences in labor institutions can persist even where those differences are not determined by geography, and that a primary channel of persistence is the path-dependence of early economic specialization.
    Keywords: institutions, slavery, inequality, development, history
    JEL: N0 O1 Q0
    Date: 2015–10
  2. By: Nan Li (International Monetary Fund); Jie Cai (University of New South Wales)
    Abstract: Technologies differ in their scopes of applications. The types of knowledge a country possesses have important implications on its growth. This paper develop a multi-sector model of innovation, trade and growth, in which knowledge in one sector is applicable to innovation in another sector in various degrees and a country's composition of knowledge is endogenously determined. We find that lower trade costs and better institutions (that increase production productivity) improve aggregate innovation efficiency through the within-country allocation of R&D towards sectors with higher knowledge applicability. We construct measures quantifying the sectoral knowledge applicability using cross-sector patent citations. Based on this index, we present cross-country evidence that broadly supports the model's implications.
    Date: 2015
  3. By: Yuki, Kazuhiro
    Abstract: Empirical evidence suggests that ethnic divisions or diversity in a society leads to negative outcomes in various dimensions, including civil conflict and economic development. It is often argued that the lack of shared social identity, that is, the dominance of subnational (particularly, ethnic) identities over national identity, lies behind the negative outcomes in ethnically heterogenous societies. If shared national identity is important, how can it be realized? In political science, there exist conflicting theses emphasizing effects of modernization on national identity. Which thesis is more relevant under what conditions? How are conflict and output affected by modernization through identity? How do policies such as "nation-building" policies affect the outcome? In order to examine these questions theoretically, this paper develops a model of social identity, ethnic conflict, and development. In the model, individuals choose a sector to work (between the modern sector and a traditional sector), social identity (between ethnic identity and national identity), and contributions to ethnic conflict. Thus, modernization (and output), identity, and conflict interact with each other.
    Keywords: ethnic conflict, social identity, modernization, nation building, economic development
    JEL: D72 D74 O10 O20
    Date: 2015–09
  4. By: Anastasios Xepapadeas; Athanasios Yannacopoulos
    Abstract: Economic growth has traditionally been analyzed in the temporal domain, while the spatial dimension is captured by cross-country income differences. Data suggest great inequality in income per capita across countries, and a slight but noticeable increase in inequality across nations (Acemoglu 2009). Seeking to explore the mechanism underlying the temporal evolution of the cross sectional distribution of economies, we develop a spatial growth model where saving rates are exogenous. Capital movements across locations are governed by a mechanism under which capital moves towards locations of relatively higher marginal productivity, with a velocity determined by the existing stock of capital. This mechanism leads to a capital accumulation equation augmented by a nonlinear diffusion term, which characterizes spatial movements. Our results suggest that under diminishing returns the growth process leads to a stable spatially non-homogenous distribution for per capita capital and income in the long run. Insufficient savings may lead to the emergence of persistent poverty cores where capital stock is depleted in some locations.
    Keywords: Economic growth, space, capital flows, nonlinear diffusion, Solow model, steady state distributions, stability.
    JEL: O4 R1 C6
    Date: 2015–09–22
  5. By: Silvana Maubrigades (Programa de Historia Económica y Social, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República)
    Abstract: The main aim of this chapter is to examine the historical evidence about marriage patterns in Latin America and critically analyze their possible influence on long–term growth. We will examine the question of whether the European Marriage Pattern can be used to help analyze women’s empowerment in Latin America. This paper tries to explain the link between socioeconomic development and age at first marriage and focuses on eight Latin American countries. Age at first marriage could be interpreted as a measure of women’s bargaining power and can be used as an indicator of the degree of freedom they have when they take the decision to marry. We look at the relation between age at first marriage and the urbanization process, educational improvement and the fertility.
    Keywords: gender inequality, age at first marriage, development
    JEL: N36 O1
    Date: 2015–07
  6. By: Howard Kung (London Business School); Francesco Bianchi (Cornell University)
    Abstract: We construct and estimate a model that features endogenous growth and technology diffusion. The spillover effects from research and development provide a link between business cycle fluctuations and long-term growth. Therefore, productivity growth is related to the state of the economy. Shocks to the marginal efficiency of investment explain the bulk of the low-frequency variation in growth rates. Transitory inflationary shocks lead to persistent declines in economic growth. During the Great Recession, technology diffusion dropped sharply, while long-term growth was not significantly affected. The opposite occurred during the 2001 recession. The growth mechanism induces positive comovement between consumption and investment.
    Date: 2015
  7. By: Asongu, Simplice
    Abstract: This study complements the scarce literature on growth determinants in fast emerging economies of the BRICS and MINT by assessing the determinants throughout the conditional distributions of the growth rate and real GDP output for the period 2001-2011. An instrumenal variable (IV) quantile regression approach is complemented with Two-Stage-Least Squares and IV Least Absolute Deviations. The instrumentation process is dynamic. The following findings are established. First, while Gross FDI has a negative effect on economic growth, the impact of Net FDI is positive, with a higher magnitude in top quantiles of the distributions. Second, the positive effect of natural resources is more apparent in countries with low initial growth levels. Third, the impact of telecommunications infrastructure is not very significant. Fourth, whereas the incidence of bank credit is positive for GDP growth, it is negative for real GDP output. Fifth, while trade openness is positive in bottom quantiles of GDP growth, but for the highest quantile in real GDP output, it is consistently negative on real GDP output. Sixth, while the incidence of political stability is negative on GDP growth, it is positive on real GDP output, with the negative (positive) effect apparent only in top (bottom) quantiles of GDP growth (real GDP output). Policy implications are discussed.
    Keywords: Economic Growth; Emerging countries; Quantile regression
    JEL: C52 F21 F23 O40 O50
    Date: 2015–03–01
  8. By: Khan, Jangraiz
    Abstract: Abstract: This paper reviews the role of Research and Development in the economic growth. The paper links back the story of economic growth to the studies of 17th and 18th century. The role of Research and development was confirmed in the models like Romer (1987), Romer (1990), Aghion and Howitt (1992), Grossman and Helpman (1991) and Barro and Sala-i-Martin (2004). In 1990s and 2000s, the empirical investigations made it a significant factor of economic growth. It is therefore conclude on the basis of the reviewed literature that Research and development play a significant role in the economic growth of a country
    Keywords: Research and Development, Economic Growth, Human Capital
    JEL: O31 O32 O47
    Date: 2015–09–30
  9. By: Asongu, Simplice
    Abstract: Purpose – We assess growth determinants in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey) fast-developing nations for the period 2001-2011. Particular emphasis is laid on the bundling and unbundling of ten governance dynamics. Design/methodology/approach- Contemporary and non-contemporary Fixed- and Random-Effects regressions are employed as empirical strategies. GDP growth and real GDP output are used as dependent variables. The governance variables are bundled by means of principal component analysis. Findings- The following are some findings. First, governance is more positively significant in non-contemporary specifications as opposed to contemporary regressions. Second, there is some interesting evidence on the heterogeneity of political governance as a driver. Political governance and its constituents (political stability and voice & accountability) are significantly positive in GDP growth but insignificant in real GDP output regressions. Third, the other governance dynamics are more significant determinants of real GDP output, as opposed to GDP growth. Accordingly, they are insignificant in contemporary regressions and negatively significant in non-contemporary regressions for GDP growth. Fourth, the constituents of economic governance have the highest magnitude in the positive effects of governance dynamics on real GDP output. Practical implications- The following are some practical implications. First, lag determinants are necessary for growth targeting or timing of growth dynamics. Growth drivers for the most part are more significantly determined by past information. Second, political governance is the most important driver of economic growth, with the significance of effects more apparent in non-contemporary regressions. Third, economic governance and institutional governance are more positively predisposed to driving real GDP output than GDP growth. Originality/value- As far as we have reviewed, it is the first study to investigate growth determinants in the BRICS and MINT nations. It has strong implications for other developing countries on the contem
    Keywords: Economic Growth; emerging countries; governance
    JEL: C52 F21 F23 O40 P37
    Date: 2015–03–01
  10. By: Ron W Nielsen
    Abstract: Mathematical methods of analysis of data and of predicting growth are discussed. The starting point is the analysis of the growth rates, which can be expressed as a function of time or as a function of the size of the growing entity. Application of these methods is illustrated using the world economic growth but they can be applied to any other type of growth.
    Date: 2015–10

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